Wimbledon 2017: Previewing the pre-quarters

This blog is available as a video blog on https://youtu.be/2RrcWlAtMGk

Wimbledon remains the only Grand Slam where no play is held on the middle Sunday. This then provides us the opportunity to pause and take stock. To start off, a pop-quiz! When was the last time that each member of the Big Four survived the first week of a Grand Slam tournament? Believe it or not, it was more than 2 years and 8 Grand Slams ago - in the French Open 2015. So the headline of the week surely must be about the strong comeback by the Big Four. And it's not just the fact that they've all reached the 4th round but also the manner in which they've gone about their business. Between them, Murray, Djokovic, Federer and Nadal, have lost just one set on their way to the Round of 16. They've all overcome tricky opponents with relative ease. The other strong contenders, namely Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic, have also been impressive as they too have lost just one set between them.

The upsets amongst the Top 10 aren't really shocking. Both Wawrinka and Nishikori don't consider grass as their favourite surface, have a below-par record at Wimbledon and to make matters worse, they were both handed out brutal draws. What has been slightly surprising though, is Dominic Thiem's performance. He wasn't in great grass-court form coming into this tournament, but he's through to his first Round of 16 at Wimbledon.

The other talk dominating headlines is how the surface is playing. Some players have complained about the quality of the grass, how it is playing slowly, how some courts are slippery, how the grass is uneven. Of course, the lack of rainfall has made the surface behave like a slow hard court and that probably explains the lack of big upsets or even contests. However, I do think that the contests will become very interesting from hereon.

The most interesting match-up in the top half of the draw is between 2-time champion, Nadal and the in-form Gilles Muller. Muller, a tall leftie from Luxembourg, is a grass court specialist and is coming into this match on the back of an impressive grass-court season. He reached the semis at Queen's, falling to Cilic in a tough 3-setter, and won the Rosmalen Championship a week earlier, beating Alexander Zverev in straight sets on his way to the title. The two southpaws have met twice at Wimbledon in the past. Muller won the first encounter in 2005 while Nadal exacted revenge in 2011. Nadal has been in sensational form, having not dropped a set in his last 10 grand slam matches but this could be a tough test. Muller has a huge serve, hits a lot of aces (he's at the top of the ace-chart) and employs a classic serve-and-volley game. But will his game stand up to scrutiny against Rafa's relentless baseline game? This will be an entertaining match and may even go the distance, but I expect Rafa to come through.

Amongst other Round of 16 matches in the top half, I expect Murray and Cilic to come through their encounters with relative ease. Sam Querrey has racked up some impressive wins again this year and he's up against Kevin Anderson in a battle of tall players with huge serves. Both these guys are joint third in the aces count, having hit 68 aces each. Hence, don't expect long rallies. Tough one to call, may even go to five sets but I expect Querrey to come through this one and reach his 2nd consecutive quarter final at the Big W.

The bottom half of the draw has some potentially mouth-watering match-ups. Strong contender Raonic comes up against the rising star, Alexander Zverev. Both players are very good on grass but recent form suggests a slight upper hand for the German. Raonic obviously has the better serve but Zverev is very good from the baseline, esp. on the backhand side. The last year's finalist has gone deep in various Grand Slams previously while for Zverev, this will be his first Round of 16 match at a Grand Slam. In their only previous meeting, Zverev got the better of Raonic on clay at Rome Masters earlier in the season. I expect him to do an encore on grass and make his first Grand Slam quarter-final.

Federer and Dimitrov go up against each other for the first time since 2016 Australian Open. The 7-time Wimbledon champion has looked sensational this season, having won his 18th Grand Slam in Australia followed by the Sunshine Double in March. His clay court hiatus was followed by a stupendous victory at Halle. He's considered as the strongest contender at this year's Wimbledon. Dimitrov, on the other hand, has had a topsy-turvy season. He started the season very strongly, winning titles at Brisbane and Sofia, and coming very close to upsetting Nadal in a thrilling 5-set semi-final in the Australian Open. He racked up an impressive 16-1 win-loss record before his season went pear-shaped at Rotterdam. He went on to suffer a shocking loss of form in the remaining hard court season and that losing spree continued in the clay court season. From 16-1, he went 5-9 leading up to the Queen's Club Championship where he finally found some form and reached the semis. The question though, is whether he's ready for the born-again Federer. I would say, difficult given the evidence. I'm going with Federer in 4 sets.

Dominic Thiem and Tomas Berdych have met only once before. That too was a 4th round encounter, three years ago at the Flushing Meadows, when the 6th seed Berdych steamrolled the unseeded Thiem in three easy sets. Things won't be easy for the Czech this time though. Thiem, the higher seed, has been outstanding this season and although he suffered two shocking losses at Halle and Antalya and his high backlift is generally considered unsuitable for grass, the Austrian has surprised one and all with his performance in London. Berdych too hasn't had a great grass-court season falling to Feliciano Lopez in the quarters both at Queen's as well as in Stuttgart. His Grand Slam performance hasn't been up to the mark in 2017 and he hasn't yet won a title this year. This one is tough to call and most likely, the match will go the distance. Thiem has already proved that he can play on the big stage and seeing him in his first Wimbledon quarter-final shouldn't surprise anyone anymore.

The no. 2 seed and the 3-time Wimbledon champion, Novak Djokovic, faces Adrian Mannarino for the second consecutive year at Wimbledon. They met in the 2nd round last year and Nole came through in straight sets. The significance of that match isn't lost on anyone as Djokovic lost in the very next round to Sam Querrey and his career has undergone a major slump that continues till today. Mannarino has caused some upsets already this year, first overcoming a red-hot Feliciano Lopez in 4 sets in the first round, and then defeating Gael Monfils in 5 sets after being down 2 sets to 1, in the previous round. Djokovic himself has started to find his bearings and his straight-sets victory over the dangerous Gulbis in the previous round was very impressive. Does Mannarino have enough fuel in the tank to cause the 3rd and his most significant upset? I think Djokovic will find a way and should come through in 4 sets.

We are all set then for a Super Monday. It's Love All!

French Open 2017: Semi-final preview

After 12 gruelling days on the red clay of Paris, we are down to four men. Three of them are grand slam winners, two of them have won here in the past but only one of them didn't reach this stage at least once in the last two years! And no that guy isn't Dominic Thiem, but Rafael Nadal! Yet, it doesn't seem strange that a lot of experts favour Nadal in his quest for La Decima.

Given the clay-court form coming into this French Open, the line-up isn't a big surprise (see my French Open preview). The only surprise has been, ironically the world no. 1 Andy Murray, who has arrested a worrying slump in form, to make his 4th consecutive semi-final at Roland Garros. And true to form, the other three semi-finalists (Nadal, Wawrinka, Thiem) haven't even dropped a set. Given the match-ups, we have an equal probability of getting either a first-time winner or a repeat winner.

SF1: Power of Wawrinka vs. Defense of Murray

This will be a repeat of last year's semi-final where many reckon, that the Scot played his best clay-court match ever to overcome Stan in four sets and make his first French Open final. So what will it take for Murray to repeat the dose this year? Well, I would say a couple of things - for Murray to somehow regain the form he showed after his loss in the Roland Garros finals last year; and for Stan to somehow suffer a massive dip in performance levels. If it's only the former, we'll have a cracker of a match. Given the stage of the tournament, Stan will be expected to put in a power-packed performance. His form has gotten better as the tournament has progressed and his overwhelming straight-sets victory over an in-form Cilic in the quarters, was a clay-court masterclass. Importantly, Stan is playing closer to the baseline and yet, he's been able to put the same power behind his groundstrokes. Murray's form has also improved but as we saw in the quarter-finals against an erratic Nishikori, he can blow hot and cold, sometimes in the same set. I expect Wawrinka to come through in four sets.

SF2: A passing of the baton moment?

Nadal and Thiem have already met thrice on clay this season, with Nadal winning two of those three encounters. The Spaniard has put in an astounding performance at this year's open, having lost just 22 games en-route to the semis (the lowest in terms of games in his 26 grand slam semi-final runs). He's had a great season so far, having already won 3 clay-court tournaments and in the eyes of many experts, he's primed to win his 10th Roland Garros title this year. However, Thiem's best surface too is clay and his semi-final showing this year has proved that his 2016 performance was no flash in the pan. He's the only player to beat Nadal on clay in 2017 and his performance in Paris has been outstanding. He hasn't lost a set and his two bagel sets (6-0) have come against the talented Tomic in the first round (2nd set) and against Djokovic in the quarters (3rd set). In addition, he's had four breadstick sets too (6-1). His demolition of Djokovic was as breathtaking and incredible as unexpected. In Djokovic, he conquered the 2nd best clay-court player in the world (based on performance over the last 3-4 years) and his reward now is to overcome the best clay-court player ever. Can he do it? Will we witness a passing of the baton moment? I'll stick my neck out and say, yes. I believe Thiem's time has come and he'll overcome Nadal in five tight sets. In the process, taking over the mantle as the best clay courter of the next generation.

French Open 2017: Top contenders

French Open 2017 will mark one full year of major upheaval in men's tennis, esp. at the top. Cast your minds back to May 2016 - Djokovic arrived in Paris, having won the three previous slams; he went on to clinch his 1st French Open title and thereby complete his career slam. Andy Murray had started to put together a string of strong clay court performances, having defeated Djokovic at Rome and he went on to reach his first final at Roland Garros, becoming the first Britisher since 1937 to do so. These two had also contested the Australian Open final that year as well as the finals of the previous two ATP Masters 1000 clay court tourneys. What about the other two members of the Big Four? Nadal, who had a good start to the clay court season in 2016 (winning Monte Carlo and Barcelona), then went on to suffer straight-set defeats against Murray (at Madrid) and Djokovic (at Rome), respectively. Nadal had to ultimately withdraw from the 3rd round at Paris, citing wrist injury. And injury is what kept Federer away from French Open 2016, ending his astonishing record of 65 consecutive grand slam appearances.

Coming into French Open 2017, however, things look very different. Djokovic's win-loss record this year reads a fairly middling 20-6 with just one title (at Doha, before the Australian Open). In 2016, those numbers were 37-3 with five titles. Andy Murray, the world no. 1, has had an even more disappointing 2017; his win-loss record this year is 16-7 overall and a ridiculously poor 4-4 on clay. On the other hand, Nadal has had a resurgence of sorts. The king of clay is already 36-6 this year and an even more impressive 17-1 on clay, with all his three titles coming on the red dirt. Three of those losses have come at the hands of his great rival, Roger Federer, who's decided to skip Roland Garros for the 2nd year in succession. This time, however, the absence is more tactical instead of being injury-induced, as the Swiss, having won at Melbourne, targets the faster courts of Wimbledon and US Open in the autumn of his career.

The most unpredictable slam!

If one glances through the list of top grand slam winners (29 winners) who've won at least 5 titles, one notices that out of a total 244 grand slam titles between them, French Open comes in at the last (constituting 42 titles or 17.2%). 

Source: Wikipedia

The numbers would've been even more skewed if not for the apathy the earlier champions showed for Australian Open. It's common knowledge that a lot of top Open-era players (Bjorn Borg, for example) skipped travelling Down Under due to scheduling (A.O. was earlier held at the end of the season), travel times involved etc. The tournament was rescheduled to January in 1987. 

If we look at slam winners since 1988 (i.e. the year Australian Open moved from grass to hard court), French Open has seen the most number of unique winners. Despite Nadal's dominance on the red clay of Paris (with 9 titles), the French Open has seen 17 different winners out of 29 titles (A.O. - 14; Wimbledon - 12; US Open - 16). Additionally, if we look at solitary title wins at the respective slams, French Open again comes out at the top (10 players with a single French Open title); the corresponding figures for other slams are A.O. - 7, Wimbledon - 6, US Open - 8.

The table below captures the respective GS winners since 1998 from amongst the list of top 29 champions (i.e. players with 5+ GS titles; as described above). Both in terms of number of winning players and no. of titles by those players, the French Open stands out.

Source: Wikipedia

Similarly, the table below captures the number of such GS winners from outside the top 29 champions (i.e. players with < 5 GS titles). It also shows other GS titles captured by these winners (i.e. outside the respective Open). On this parameter, French Open and Wimbledon stand out but Wimbledon has the least number of unique winners and most proportion of winners from Top 29. In other words, there are some one Slam wonders amongst Wimbledon winners but they are far lower in comparison to various champion players who've won multiple titles.

  

Top contenders at Paris

Between 2005 and 2014, Rafael Nadal won 9 out of the 10 French Open titles. Over the last two years, however, we've had two first-time champions - Stan Wawrinka in 2015 and Djokovic in 2016. Will we see the trend continue in 2017? Or will the 9-time champion regain his stranglehold on The Musketeers' Trophy?

Nadal remains the top contender for this year's French Open. He's won 3 of the 4 major clay court tournaments leading up to Roland Garros. In the course of his 3 titles (Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid), he lost just two sets. His 2017 nemesis, Federer, isn't playing. He'll face stiff challenge from the other two strong contenders, Djokovic and Dominic Thiem, who are both in his half of the draw (bottom half). Thiem is on a high, stringing together a 17-4 clay court record and has been the only player to overcome Rafa on clay this year. He reached the finals both at Barcelona and Madrid, losing to the Spanish giant on each occasion, before he finally overcame Nadal in the quarters at Rome. The 6th seed, Thiem was also a semi-finalist at Roland Garros last year and makes a strong case as the no. 2 contender.

The 2nd ranked Djokovic hasn't had a great year on clay. He's racked up an ordinary 8-3 record on clay but his performances have shown a gradual improvement. After losing to Goffin in the quarters at Monte-Carlo, he reached the semis at Madrid (lost to Nadal) and then the finals at Rome (lost to Alexander Zverev). The defending champion has inducted Andre Agassi as his coach, plus his pedigree on clay as well as recent record against Nadal (4-2 on clay and 9-2 overall since 2014) would definitely make him one of the strongest contenders. He's drawn to meet Thiem in the quarters and Nadal in the semis, in a heavily-loaded bottom half. The bottom half also has some dangerous floaters in Goffin, Ramos-Vinolas and Dimitrov.  

The top half of the draw contains, in my view, the two dark horses of this year's open. Alexander Zverev has put together a very impressive win-loss record of 16-3 on clay, with two titles including the ATP Masters 1000 Rome (Italian Open), defeating Djokovic in the finals. He's entered Top 10 for the first time (going in to Roland Garros as world no. 10) and is set to better his 2016 win-loss record. He's slated to start against Verdasco in the first round, and occupies the same quarter of the draw as Berdych and world no. 1, Murray, but I expect him to make it to the semis this year. Last but not the least, is the world no. 3 and 2015 champion, Stan Wawrinka. His overall win-loss record this year is an ordinary 16-8 while his record on clay is 6-3. Stan has always blown hot, blown cold outside grand slams. However, in grand slams, since the beginning of 2015, he's won two, reached the semis of four others as well as the quarters at one. Across five sets and towards the latter part of a grand slam tournament, Stan is as good as any of the Big Four. That's why, in my view, he should be considered as a very strong contender. Watch out for Pablo Cuevas and Fabio Fognini in the top half - they could cause some upsets.

Between 2001 and 2004, Roland Garros witnessed four different champions. And none of them won another grand slam outside French Open. Will we see a new champion emerge this year? Or will the hegemony of the Big Four + Wawrinka, continue? The 2nd Sunday of June will have the answers!   

  

     

Vintage Federer looking to secure 3rd Sunshine Double in Miami

As the tennis bandwagon traveled from the deserts of California to the beaches of Florida, one question doing the rounds was whether Roger Federer can follow-up his victory at Indian Wells with a title win at Miami. This Sunshine Double i.e. winning Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back, that completes the spring hardcourt season in North America, is one of the toughest to achieve - only 7 players ever have achieved this. The list includes Federer, who along with Djokovic, is the only player to have achieved this more than once. So, can Federer round-off the early hardcourt season by winning the first three major tournaments of 2017?

Indian Wells finals

Federer capped a wonderful week with a straight sets victory over compatriot and friend, Stan Wawrinka, to clinch his 5th Indian Wells title. He won the prestigious tournament without dropping a set throughout the course of the tournament. After dominating Nadal, Federer got slightly lucky when the in-form Kyrgios withdrew before their quarter-final encounter, citing food poisoning. With the Federer backhand firing the way it was against Nadal, the Jack Sock challenge in the semis was overcome in straight sets too. This set up an exciting encounter with Wawrinka, their 2nd this year.

The two Swiss giants went toe-to-toe in the first few games. Federer was off-the-blocks in a hurry, hitting 4 crisp winners in the very first game of the match. Wawrinka kept pace through some heavy hitting esp. on the forehand side. Both players were serving well and none of them faced any break-points in the first 9 games of the set. At 4-5, 30-15, a Wawrinka first serve (out wide) was called out and while Wawrinka didn't challenge that decision, the hawk-eye later suggested that the ball had just clipped the side-line. This proved crucial as Federer won the next three points, hitting huge forehands and mixing his pace & spin on backhands, to take the first set 6-4. Overall, Federer lost just four points on his serve throughout the set, hit nine winners and converted the only break point opportunity he got.

Wawrinka came out firing in the 2nd set, hitting three blistering forehand winners to break Federer in the opening game. This was the first (and only) time Federer's serve was broken during the tournament. On his serve in the next game, Wawrinka was down a break point after Federer hit a forehand down-the-line return winner. At break point, Wawrinka's approach shot was called out. This time, the US Open champion challenged that decision and the hawk-eye overturned the umpire's decision. Federer earned another break point opportunity in that game but Wawrinka held firm and consolidated his break to go up 2-0. It may have seemed that Wawrinka had turned a corner and had done enough to win the 2nd set, thereby taking the match into the decider. Federer however, was determined to make a comeback and ready to change tactics to mount one. He went on to win his next service game very comfortably by repeatedly coming into the net. And in the next game, when Wawrinka presented him a couple of break points through a series of unforced errors, he chipped a backhand directly at the feet of the advancing Wawrinka to elicit a weak half-volley and then hit a searing forehand down-the-line pass to break back and level the 2nd set. That basically set the template for the rest of the match. Federer repeatedly came to the net in his service games, and constantly moved Wawrinka around the court on his service games, to elicit the errors. With Wawrinka serving at 5-6, 30-30, Federer sensed an opportunity and pounced on his opponent's serves, taking them really early and finally breaking Wawrinka's resolve to win the set & match, 6-4, 7-5.

Overall, Federer hit 22 winners and made 16 unforced errors as compared to 16 winners and 21 unforced errors from the racquet of Wawrinka. He won his 5th Indian Wells title without dropping a set. This was also his 25th ATP Masters 1000 title (becoming the oldest player to win an ATP Masters 1000) and 90th tournament overall. This tournament win also propelled Federer to World No. 6 in ATP rankings.

Miami Open - Tournament wide open

Both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic withdrew from this year's Miami Open, citing similar elbow injuries. Their withdrawals are significant as they've established a dupoly on this tournament, winning 8 of the last 10 titles. So much so, that Nadal has failed to win this tournament even once (despite reaching 4 finals) and Federer, a two-time winner (the last title came in 2006), last reached a semi-final here in 2011 (he hasn't played in 3 of the last 6 years).  

The absence of the top two players in the world, has therefore, considerably opened up the field, as well as given the top seeds like Wawrinka, Nishikori, Federer and Nadal, an easier path to the semis. Nadal and Federer are pitted in opposite halves of the draw and hence, can't meet before the finals. Wawrinka and Federer are slotted in the same half and can potentially meet in the semi-finals. It won't be an easy ride though as Federer could meet the explosive Del Potro in the 3rd round (Head to Head: 15-5), the Acapulco champion Sam Querrey in the 4th round (H2H: 3-0), and the talented Dominic Thiem (H2H: 1-2) or Tomas Berdych (H2H: 17-6) in the quarters. Wawrinka has a slightly easier path to the quarters, given recent form of his likely opponents, but then the in-form Nick Kyrgios awaits in the quarters (H2H: 2-2). Also, he's unlikely to have it easy against likely opponent Alexander Zverev in the 4th round (H2H: 0-1).

The plethora of upsets in the bottom half of the draw yesterday, means that both Nadal and Nishikori are likely to have an easier path till their semi-final showdown. Nadal, who won his 2nd round encounter against Dudi Sela yesterday, is now drawn to play Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 3rd round (H2H: 13-1). Either Milos Raonic (H2H; 7-2) or Indian Wells semi-finalist, Jack Sock (H2H: 2-0), could be a quarter-final opponent for Nadal. Nishikori is slated to next meet Fernando Verdasco (H2H: 2-2), the only other remaining seed in that quarter of the draw. So a Nishikori-Nadal semi-final looks more certain than the Wawrinka-Federer one.

Why has Federer struggled at Miami?   

Federer's first appearance in Miami was in 1999 (as a wild card). He's a two-time winner (2005, 2006) and has been a runner-up in 2002 (lost to Agassi). Apart from these title appearances, he's just reached two other semi-finals (2009, 2011) and his record at the tournament is, a less-than-stellar 44-13. The slow courts have often been blamed for this. However, ATP court-speed data released in October 2016, showed Miami courts to be quicker than Indian Wells. 

Source: Reddit.com

It could be argued therefore, that more than the court speed, it's the tournament's scheduling that may have hurt Federer (coming as it does, immediately after Indian Wells). He last played here in 2014 when he lost in the quarters to Nishikori. He skipped the 2013, 2015 and 2016 editions - this seems to have been slightly low priority for Federer in the last few years. Especially since this is the last hard court tournament before the clay court season starts. Federer has clearly indicated that the clay court swing in 2017 will be low priority for him, as he has set his sights on Wimbledon. Hence, it's reasonable to expect Federer to push himself very hard for a 3rd title in Miami.

Will we witness Fedal Episode 03 of Season '17?  

While the path to the finals is not easy for either Federer or Nadal, millions of fans would be eagerly anticipating their third meeting in 2017. It's quite incredible, considering that having not met in 2016 and only once in 2015, they can potentially meet for the 3rd time in the first three months of 2017! They've met in Miami on three previous occasions with Nadal triumphing on two occasions. In fact, their first two career meetings were in Miami. In 2004, the 17 year old Nadal upset the world no. 1 Federer in straight sets (3rd round) and made the tennis world sit up and take notice. The following year, the duo met in the finals. Nadal won the first two sets and was up 4-1 in the 3rd. Federer then mounted a stunning comeback by breaking back and winning the tight 3rd set in a tie-break. This proved to be the turning point - Federer raced away with the final two sets as the rapidly-tiring Nadal couldn't keep up. That was Federer's first Miami title and Nadal's first runner-up performance. Two months later, Nadal won his first grand slam title at Roland-Garros and his victory over Federer in the semis, launched his winning head-to-head record against the Swiss giant.

In both their meetings in 2017, Federer has overcome Nadal by being very aggressive with his backhand and taking the balls very early (see my previous blog). By doing this twice within a space of six weeks, Federer has revealed his hand. If they meet again on 2nd April, Nadal will be hoping to find an ace up his sleeve!

Federer and Kyrgios set up blockbuster QF at Indian Wells

Roger Federer and Nick Kyrgios came through their blockbuster 4th round encounters at Indian Wells in straight sets on Wednesday. While the victories were not entirely surprising (given recent head-to-head record), the scorelines definitely were. One would've expected Nadal and Djokovic, respectively, to take the match to the decider. However, both Federer and Kyrgios relentlessly stuck to a very aggressive game plan and neither of them offered any window of opportunity to their opponents. This ensured that they are now, the last men standing in this "Quarter of Death".

Djokovic - Kyrgios: Acapulco to California

This match was a repeat of the quarter final match in Acapulco (Mexican Open), a couple of weeks back. Then, Kyrgios had upset Djokovic in two close sets 7-6(9), 7-5. Who would have thought that the brilliant-but-inconsistent Kyrgios will outmatch that superlative performance with such a powerful display at Indian Wells that by the time the match ended, Djokovic was left dazed, unsure and frustrated.

Kyrgios gave a superlative serving performance, sending down 14 aces, winning 86% of first serves and he also denied Djokovic any break point opportunity. The last bit was crucial, coming as it was, against one of the best returners of all time. In his 6-4, 7-6(3) victory achieved in 112 mins, the Aussie blasted 25 winners and made just 19 unforced errors. Contrast this with Djokovic, who made 25 unforced errors, a lot of them from his normally reliable backhand side. This defeat ended the three-time defending champion's 19-match winning streak at Indian Wells. The tall Canberra native broke Djokovic in the very first game of the match and, even though he had chances to go double-break up in the 3rd and 7th games, this lone break was enough to secure the opening set. The second set was much closer with Djokovic holding his service more comfortably until the 11th game, where he had to fend off two break points to force the set into a tie-breaker. Here too, Kyrgios was way too powerful, going up a mini-break very early on and thoroughly dominated the tie-break to win it 7 points to 3.

Apart from his massive service, Kyrgios managed to stay with Djokovic in most of the long rallies. His ability to constantly change directions & pace on his groundstrokes did not allow Djokovic to settle into any rhythm. Plus, he took a lot of service returns very early, winning 30% of first serve return points and managed to upstage Djokovic even in this aspect. No wonder, the Serb was so frustrated that he constantly berated himself and even smashed his racquet to pieces after losing the first set.

Fedal: Season '17 Episode 02!

When the draw for the tournament was out, the first match-up everybody took note of, was the potential 4th round encounter between Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal. After all, this would be their earliest meeting in any tournament since their first ever encounter in Miami 13 years ago. The fact that this 4th round encounter was taking place after a high-octane Australian Open final, contested by these two only six weeks ago, made it even more promising. 

Federer had defeated Nadal at the Australian Open by employing a very aggressive game-plan where he was taking his shots very early, keeping the points shorter and flattening out his backhand (instead of using slice). Even though the surface at Indian Wells is much slower than the one at Rod Laver arena, Federer wasn't going to abandon this game plan. He broke Nadal in the very first game of the match, hitting two winners, hitting hard & deep from both wings, taking the service very early and basically setting the template for the match. Nadal had a break point opportunity in the next game but Federer quickly snuffed that out with a huge serve and went on to hold, thereby consolidating his break. Alas, that was the last service break opportunity that Nadal had for the entire match. Federer broke Nadal again in the 5th game, winning the game via an exquisite backhand down-the-line return winner. He eventually won the first set 6-2. Although Rafa started the 2nd set confidently, Federer broke him in the 3rd game, sealing it with a screaming, inside-out forehand cross-court winner. Thereafter, Federer was rarely troubled on his service games and this enabled him to take more risks on Nadal's service games. This gamble eventually paid off as Federer broke Nadal again in the 9th game, winning the game, set and match with another backhand down-the-line return winner.

The utterly dominant 6-2, 6-3 win came in only 68 minutes and helped Federer close the H2H gap with Nadal (now stands at 23-13). The Swiss genius hit 5 aces and won 76% of first serve points, 75% of 2nd serve points and 44% of first return points. All these numbers were far superior to Nadal. In all, he hit 26 winners and made 17 unforced errors vis-a-vis Nadal who hit 10 winners and 15 unforced errors. Under Ljubicic, Federer seems to have a better game plan against Nadal. Also, the larger racquet head (which he adopted in 2014) seems to have made him more confident to hit flat / topspin backhands instead of slice (esp. on big points). Lastly, he's improved his defensive game as well, introducing a sort-of-loopy backhand when pushed into a defensive position - this shot is hit deep and gives Federer the chance to recover his court position and also elicits a weaker response from the opponent. 

Federer, Kyrgios and the path to glory!

Federer and Kyrgios will clash for a place in the semi-finals. In their only previous encounter, held on clay in 2015, Kyrgios had defeated Federer in three tight sets (all sets were decided by a tie-break). With Andy Murray already eliminated from the top half of the draw, the winner of this QF will have a good chance of going all the way. Given his recent form, Kyrgios will be quite confident of reaching his 3rd consecutive semi-final in tournaments this year. Federer, on the other hand, buoyed by his recent victories over Nadal, would be keen to win his 5th Indian Wells title, his 25th ATP Masters 1000 title and his 90th tournament overall. Whatever the outcome, we are all set for a potentially entertaining QF!