Is no. 25 achievable for Federer?

Roger Federer capped another remarkable fortnight Down Under as he overcame the highly impressive Marin Cilic 6-2 6-7 6-3 3-6 6-1 in five pulsating sets, to win his 6th Australian Open and an incredible 20th grand slam title. The Croatian had a brilliant tournament, taking out the World no. 1 Nadal in the quarters, and more importantly, had the belief needed to beat the Swiss. And Federer must have known that it wasn't going to be easy.

Cilic first mounted a solid comeback after an ordinary opening set (which he lost 2-6), by winning the second set in a tie-break and then after losing the third set and down a break in the fourth, he unleashed his powerful, flat-out, big-hitting game to win five consecutive games to level the match and take the final to a decider. He even had two break-point opportunities in the opening game of the fifth set but once Federer snuffed them out by way of strong serving, it was one-way traffic as the Swiss maestro broke twice in the final set to win the first grand slam of 2018. Federer out-aced Cilic (24 to 16), made far fewer unforced errors (40 to 64) and trailed only slightly, in terms of winners (41 to 45). He returned remarkably well - getting a whopping 47% of Cilic's huge first serves in play and winning 27% of first serve points; Cilic's respective numbers were 36% and 17%. Also, the Swiss was much more efficient on his own serves (getting 60% first serves in) - winning 80% of first serves and 58% of second serves vs. 69% and 51% respectively, for Cilic. In a match of short points (76% of rallies were 0-4 shots long), both these aspects made a huge difference.

There's also the small matter of Federer's ability to come up with special shots or incredible improvisations when the situation demands. Serving at 4-2, 15-15 in the third set, Federer hit an incredible, inside-out, forehand flick half-volley from the baseline while out of position, back-pedaling and tracking down a heavy backhand - the Croatian, stunned at that recovery, found himself out of position and could only dump his reply into the net. Every Federer match has shots like these - they shock opponents and fans alike.

So what next for the maestro? By winning his 20th grand slam, he has already reached where no man has. His nearest rival is four slams behind and Sampras' 14 slams seem like a distant memory. Federer's smart scheduling has reaped rewards and hence he may curtail his appearances in the clay court season again. If the Swiss keeps up his fitness levels, he'll start as a favourite at both Wimbledon as well as the US Open. A 2-slam year like 2017 is very much on the cards and a 3-slam year (last achieved by Federer in 2007) isn't unfathomable. While it would be very difficult to achieve, a 3-slam year will leave Federer with 22 slams by September 2018, tied with Steffi Graf and just two short of the all-time grand slam leader, Margaret Court. Could we then witness the great man win grand slam no. 25 by 2020? It may sound incredulous today, but then, Federer has made a career out of making the impossible, possible.    

US Open 2017: The "Injured" Open!

Andy Murray announced yesterday that he would be pulling out of this year's US Open due to the ongoing hip injury. The British no. 1 and the 2012 US Open champion, who hasn't played since Wimbledon, has seen his no. 1 ranking slip away in this absence. He is the 5th player in the ATP Top 11 rankings to have pulled out of this year's US Open. Both the last year's finalists, Wawrinka and Djokovic, have already pulled out. And so have the 2014 finalist, Kei Nishikori, and the 2016 Wimbledon finalist, Milos Raonic. In fact, Wawrinka, Djokovic and Nishikori have called time on their 2017 season. And Roger Federer, the player who set this very trend last year, comes into his 17th US Open after recovering from a minor niggle.

It's hard to recall the last time when so many top players withdrew from a Grand Slam, on account of injury. Hence, it might seem that the field is wide open and that we might even see a surprise winner this year. However, what many fail to appreciate is the depth in men's tennis, esp. in the top 50. Left in the fray still, are four former US Open champions as well as five former semi-finalists. Let's look at the strong contenders for this year's Open and how the draw plays out.

Strong contenders

As the new world no. 1, Rafael Nadal comes into the tournament as a strong contender. His performances since achieving the historic La Decima in Paris, have been less assuring though. After the surprising defeat in the 4th round of Wimbledon, he lost in the 2nd round in Montreal and then was blasted off the court by Nick Kyrgios in the quarter-finals at Cincinnati. He's got a relatively easy passage till the 4th round where he could meet either Fabio Fognini or Tomas Berdych, both dangerous players. From there on, the path becomes difficult as he could square off against the Cincinnati Masters Champion, Grigor Dimitrov, in the quarters and then could meet his 2017 bête noire, Roger Federer in what would be their first ever US Open meeting.

With the exit of Murray, Roger Federer, is the next highest seed and he would like to make 2017 as his fourth 3-slam year, remarkably a decade after the last one. He was having a dream run after winning Wimbledon without dropping a set and then reaching the finals at Toronto before his chronic back problem returned in a straight-set defeat against Alexander Zverev. He skipped Cincinnati as a result and hence is coming into Flushing Meadows with a suspect back, which hasn't been thoroughly tested against the top players on the hard courts. And he's been handed a tough draw. Federer opens against the talented American teenager Frances Tiafoe (their 2nd meeting this year) and then, could face two-time semi-finalist, Mikhail Youzhny in the 2nd round, either of Fernando Verdasco or Feliciano Lopez in the 3rd round, the Cincinnati finalist Nick Kyrgios in the 4th round and possibly the 6th seed, Dominic Thiem in the quarters. In a way, this isn't dissimilar to the Australian Open 2017 where he was handed out a tough draw, mainly due to his ranking, and was coming into that tournament without match practice. If he's fit, then Federer will continue to mount a serious challenge for his 20th Grand Slam title and at 36, he continues to be one of the best hard-court players on tour.

The Wimbledon finalist and the 2014 US Open champion, Marin Cilic, also comes into the final grand slam of the year, on the back of an injury. He pulled out of both Montreal as well as Cincinnati Masters on account of an abductor injury. He doesn't have any major obstacles till the quarters (he could meet the rejuvenated David Ferrer in the 4th round), where he could meet the Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and his potential semi-final opponent would be the rising star and the in-form German, Alexander Zverev. Like Stan Wawrinka, the 28-year old Croat generally brings his A-game to the Grand Slams and he's at his best at the US Open (also a semi-finalist in 2015, and quarter-finalist in 2009 and 2012). He's definitely a strong contender for his 2nd US Open. 

Dark Horses

So who could spring a surprise? Could it be one of the old warhorses? In a depleted field, Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer and Monfils could fancy their chances to land their first slam. Or would it be one of the young guns who'll make a breakthrough at Flushing Meadows, much like Safin, Hewitt and Roddick in the early 2000s? Zverev, Thiem, Kyrgios will also think that their time has come. And what about the in-form Dimitrov, the late bloomer Querrey or the 2009 champion Del Potro?

The 26-year old Bulgarian, Grigor Dimitrov, is the most successful hard-court player this year. He's 24-6 on hard-courts and with 3 titles, is equal with Federer for most number of hard-court titles in 2017. He won the Cincinnati Masters without dropping a set, had a great start to the year and came very close to his first Slam Final at Melbourne (see my previous blog). He's in the same half of the draw as Nadal and Federer, and that would mean he needs to go through both of them to win his first slam (something he's done only once in 15 meetings with them). 

What does one make of Alexander Zverev? He's had a great season so far, having won two ATP Masters 1000 titles (beating Federer in the final at Montreal & beating Djokovic in the final at Rome) and 5 titles in total. Yet, he's failed to progress beyond the 4th round in the three Grand Slams this year, as success at the highest level continues to elude him (yet to reach the quarters at any slam). He's seeded in the top 4 for the first time at a Grand Slam, and has an easy path till the quarters. May be this is the tournament where the younger Zverev sibling, breaks his Grand Slam hoodoo.

Nick Kyrgios hasn't won any titles this year. He hasn't progressed beyond the 2nd round in any of the Grand Slams this year. So what makes him a dark horse? His performance against big players on big stages on the hard-courts, sets him apart. He demolished Nadal in Cincinnati, knocked out Djokovic at both Indian Wells and Acapulco, without dropping a set in any of those matches. He also has two wins over Zverev. He had a very close match with Federer in Miami, losing in three tie-break sets. His explosive game poses a grave threat to all top players but questions remain over his temperament. Despite this, he has enough firepower to cause a flutter or two in the top half of the draw. 

The Wimbledon semi-finalist, Sam Querrey has had a late resurgence of sorts. He's won two titles this year (both in Mexico incidentally) and was a semi-finalist at Wimbledon where he upset Tsonga and Murray along the way. Even more impressive was his title win at Acapulco where he went through Goffin, Thiem, Kyrgios and Nadal. He's got a kind draw and should progress to the quarters with relative ease. Here, Zverev lays in wait in what would be their first ever encounter. A repeat of the Wimbledon semi-final (vs. Cilic) can't be ruled out.

The year's final slam may have been depleted on account of pullouts but this gives a great opportunity for someone to make a mark. Will we get a first-time slam winner?     

     

Federer and Kyrgios set up blockbuster QF at Indian Wells

Roger Federer and Nick Kyrgios came through their blockbuster 4th round encounters at Indian Wells in straight sets on Wednesday. While the victories were not entirely surprising (given recent head-to-head record), the scorelines definitely were. One would've expected Nadal and Djokovic, respectively, to take the match to the decider. However, both Federer and Kyrgios relentlessly stuck to a very aggressive game plan and neither of them offered any window of opportunity to their opponents. This ensured that they are now, the last men standing in this "Quarter of Death".

Djokovic - Kyrgios: Acapulco to California

This match was a repeat of the quarter final match in Acapulco (Mexican Open), a couple of weeks back. Then, Kyrgios had upset Djokovic in two close sets 7-6(9), 7-5. Who would have thought that the brilliant-but-inconsistent Kyrgios will outmatch that superlative performance with such a powerful display at Indian Wells that by the time the match ended, Djokovic was left dazed, unsure and frustrated.

Kyrgios gave a superlative serving performance, sending down 14 aces, winning 86% of first serves and he also denied Djokovic any break point opportunity. The last bit was crucial, coming as it was, against one of the best returners of all time. In his 6-4, 7-6(3) victory achieved in 112 mins, the Aussie blasted 25 winners and made just 19 unforced errors. Contrast this with Djokovic, who made 25 unforced errors, a lot of them from his normally reliable backhand side. This defeat ended the three-time defending champion's 19-match winning streak at Indian Wells. The tall Canberra native broke Djokovic in the very first game of the match and, even though he had chances to go double-break up in the 3rd and 7th games, this lone break was enough to secure the opening set. The second set was much closer with Djokovic holding his service more comfortably until the 11th game, where he had to fend off two break points to force the set into a tie-breaker. Here too, Kyrgios was way too powerful, going up a mini-break very early on and thoroughly dominated the tie-break to win it 7 points to 3.

Apart from his massive service, Kyrgios managed to stay with Djokovic in most of the long rallies. His ability to constantly change directions & pace on his groundstrokes did not allow Djokovic to settle into any rhythm. Plus, he took a lot of service returns very early, winning 30% of first serve return points and managed to upstage Djokovic even in this aspect. No wonder, the Serb was so frustrated that he constantly berated himself and even smashed his racquet to pieces after losing the first set.

Fedal: Season '17 Episode 02!

When the draw for the tournament was out, the first match-up everybody took note of, was the potential 4th round encounter between Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal. After all, this would be their earliest meeting in any tournament since their first ever encounter in Miami 13 years ago. The fact that this 4th round encounter was taking place after a high-octane Australian Open final, contested by these two only six weeks ago, made it even more promising. 

Federer had defeated Nadal at the Australian Open by employing a very aggressive game-plan where he was taking his shots very early, keeping the points shorter and flattening out his backhand (instead of using slice). Even though the surface at Indian Wells is much slower than the one at Rod Laver arena, Federer wasn't going to abandon this game plan. He broke Nadal in the very first game of the match, hitting two winners, hitting hard & deep from both wings, taking the service very early and basically setting the template for the match. Nadal had a break point opportunity in the next game but Federer quickly snuffed that out with a huge serve and went on to hold, thereby consolidating his break. Alas, that was the last service break opportunity that Nadal had for the entire match. Federer broke Nadal again in the 5th game, winning the game via an exquisite backhand down-the-line return winner. He eventually won the first set 6-2. Although Rafa started the 2nd set confidently, Federer broke him in the 3rd game, sealing it with a screaming, inside-out forehand cross-court winner. Thereafter, Federer was rarely troubled on his service games and this enabled him to take more risks on Nadal's service games. This gamble eventually paid off as Federer broke Nadal again in the 9th game, winning the game, set and match with another backhand down-the-line return winner.

The utterly dominant 6-2, 6-3 win came in only 68 minutes and helped Federer close the H2H gap with Nadal (now stands at 23-13). The Swiss genius hit 5 aces and won 76% of first serve points, 75% of 2nd serve points and 44% of first return points. All these numbers were far superior to Nadal. In all, he hit 26 winners and made 17 unforced errors vis-a-vis Nadal who hit 10 winners and 15 unforced errors. Under Ljubicic, Federer seems to have a better game plan against Nadal. Also, the larger racquet head (which he adopted in 2014) seems to have made him more confident to hit flat / topspin backhands instead of slice (esp. on big points). Lastly, he's improved his defensive game as well, introducing a sort-of-loopy backhand when pushed into a defensive position - this shot is hit deep and gives Federer the chance to recover his court position and also elicits a weaker response from the opponent. 

Federer, Kyrgios and the path to glory!

Federer and Kyrgios will clash for a place in the semi-finals. In their only previous encounter, held on clay in 2015, Kyrgios had defeated Federer in three tight sets (all sets were decided by a tie-break). With Andy Murray already eliminated from the top half of the draw, the winner of this QF will have a good chance of going all the way. Given his recent form, Kyrgios will be quite confident of reaching his 3rd consecutive semi-final in tournaments this year. Federer, on the other hand, buoyed by his recent victories over Nadal, would be keen to win his 5th Indian Wells title, his 25th ATP Masters 1000 title and his 90th tournament overall. Whatever the outcome, we are all set for a potentially entertaining QF!