US Open 2017: The "Injured" Open!

Andy Murray announced yesterday that he would be pulling out of this year's US Open due to the ongoing hip injury. The British no. 1 and the 2012 US Open champion, who hasn't played since Wimbledon, has seen his no. 1 ranking slip away in this absence. He is the 5th player in the ATP Top 11 rankings to have pulled out of this year's US Open. Both the last year's finalists, Wawrinka and Djokovic, have already pulled out. And so have the 2014 finalist, Kei Nishikori, and the 2016 Wimbledon finalist, Milos Raonic. In fact, Wawrinka, Djokovic and Nishikori have called time on their 2017 season. And Roger Federer, the player who set this very trend last year, comes into his 17th US Open after recovering from a minor niggle.

It's hard to recall the last time when so many top players withdrew from a Grand Slam, on account of injury. Hence, it might seem that the field is wide open and that we might even see a surprise winner this year. However, what many fail to appreciate is the depth in men's tennis, esp. in the top 50. Left in the fray still, are four former US Open champions as well as five former semi-finalists. Let's look at the strong contenders for this year's Open and how the draw plays out.

Strong contenders

As the new world no. 1, Rafael Nadal comes into the tournament as a strong contender. His performances since achieving the historic La Decima in Paris, have been less assuring though. After the surprising defeat in the 4th round of Wimbledon, he lost in the 2nd round in Montreal and then was blasted off the court by Nick Kyrgios in the quarter-finals at Cincinnati. He's got a relatively easy passage till the 4th round where he could meet either Fabio Fognini or Tomas Berdych, both dangerous players. From there on, the path becomes difficult as he could square off against the Cincinnati Masters Champion, Grigor Dimitrov, in the quarters and then could meet his 2017 bête noire, Roger Federer in what would be their first ever US Open meeting.

With the exit of Murray, Roger Federer, is the next highest seed and he would like to make 2017 as his fourth 3-slam year, remarkably a decade after the last one. He was having a dream run after winning Wimbledon without dropping a set and then reaching the finals at Toronto before his chronic back problem returned in a straight-set defeat against Alexander Zverev. He skipped Cincinnati as a result and hence is coming into Flushing Meadows with a suspect back, which hasn't been thoroughly tested against the top players on the hard courts. And he's been handed a tough draw. Federer opens against the talented American teenager Frances Tiafoe (their 2nd meeting this year) and then, could face two-time semi-finalist, Mikhail Youzhny in the 2nd round, either of Fernando Verdasco or Feliciano Lopez in the 3rd round, the Cincinnati finalist Nick Kyrgios in the 4th round and possibly the 6th seed, Dominic Thiem in the quarters. In a way, this isn't dissimilar to the Australian Open 2017 where he was handed out a tough draw, mainly due to his ranking, and was coming into that tournament without match practice. If he's fit, then Federer will continue to mount a serious challenge for his 20th Grand Slam title and at 36, he continues to be one of the best hard-court players on tour.

The Wimbledon finalist and the 2014 US Open champion, Marin Cilic, also comes into the final grand slam of the year, on the back of an injury. He pulled out of both Montreal as well as Cincinnati Masters on account of an abductor injury. He doesn't have any major obstacles till the quarters (he could meet the rejuvenated David Ferrer in the 4th round), where he could meet the Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and his potential semi-final opponent would be the rising star and the in-form German, Alexander Zverev. Like Stan Wawrinka, the 28-year old Croat generally brings his A-game to the Grand Slams and he's at his best at the US Open (also a semi-finalist in 2015, and quarter-finalist in 2009 and 2012). He's definitely a strong contender for his 2nd US Open. 

Dark Horses

So who could spring a surprise? Could it be one of the old warhorses? In a depleted field, Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer and Monfils could fancy their chances to land their first slam. Or would it be one of the young guns who'll make a breakthrough at Flushing Meadows, much like Safin, Hewitt and Roddick in the early 2000s? Zverev, Thiem, Kyrgios will also think that their time has come. And what about the in-form Dimitrov, the late bloomer Querrey or the 2009 champion Del Potro?

The 26-year old Bulgarian, Grigor Dimitrov, is the most successful hard-court player this year. He's 24-6 on hard-courts and with 3 titles, is equal with Federer for most number of hard-court titles in 2017. He won the Cincinnati Masters without dropping a set, had a great start to the year and came very close to his first Slam Final at Melbourne (see my previous blog). He's in the same half of the draw as Nadal and Federer, and that would mean he needs to go through both of them to win his first slam (something he's done only once in 15 meetings with them). 

What does one make of Alexander Zverev? He's had a great season so far, having won two ATP Masters 1000 titles (beating Federer in the final at Montreal & beating Djokovic in the final at Rome) and 5 titles in total. Yet, he's failed to progress beyond the 4th round in the three Grand Slams this year, as success at the highest level continues to elude him (yet to reach the quarters at any slam). He's seeded in the top 4 for the first time at a Grand Slam, and has an easy path till the quarters. May be this is the tournament where the younger Zverev sibling, breaks his Grand Slam hoodoo.

Nick Kyrgios hasn't won any titles this year. He hasn't progressed beyond the 2nd round in any of the Grand Slams this year. So what makes him a dark horse? His performance against big players on big stages on the hard-courts, sets him apart. He demolished Nadal in Cincinnati, knocked out Djokovic at both Indian Wells and Acapulco, without dropping a set in any of those matches. He also has two wins over Zverev. He had a very close match with Federer in Miami, losing in three tie-break sets. His explosive game poses a grave threat to all top players but questions remain over his temperament. Despite this, he has enough firepower to cause a flutter or two in the top half of the draw. 

The Wimbledon semi-finalist, Sam Querrey has had a late resurgence of sorts. He's won two titles this year (both in Mexico incidentally) and was a semi-finalist at Wimbledon where he upset Tsonga and Murray along the way. Even more impressive was his title win at Acapulco where he went through Goffin, Thiem, Kyrgios and Nadal. He's got a kind draw and should progress to the quarters with relative ease. Here, Zverev lays in wait in what would be their first ever encounter. A repeat of the Wimbledon semi-final (vs. Cilic) can't be ruled out.

The year's final slam may have been depleted on account of pullouts but this gives a great opportunity for someone to make a mark. Will we get a first-time slam winner?     

     

Reliving Federer vs. Cilic at Wimbledon 2016

As Roger Federer and Marin Cilic prepare to face-off in the Wimbledon 2017 final on Sunday, it'll be good to review their previous encounter. Federer and Cilic squared off in the quarter-final of Wimbledon 2016 and what a classic five-setter it was!

The Croatian had demolished the Swiss Champion in their encounter, previous to this one. That was in the semi-final of the US Open 2014 where Cilic simply destroyed Federer in straight sets on his way to his maiden Grand Slam title. Federer of course, remembered this and he mentioned how "he was blown away" by Cilic, in the press conference after his 4th round win over Steve Johnson. He specifically mentioned how Cilic had improved his serve considerably (see press conference video) and this was in ample display in the first two sets of their quarter-final encounter. Federer was unable to get any read on the Cilic serve as the tall Croatian quickly went up 2 sets to love. Then, the decisive, match-turning moment came in the 7th game of the 3rd set. The 7-time champion had his backs to the wall as he was serving at 0-40, virtually three match points down, given the way Cilic was serving. He somehow managed to extricate himself out of that situation with guts and grit. Then, with the momentum swinging back to his side, the Swiss broke Cilic in the very next game and held on to take the third set 6-3. The biggest difference now, was that Federer was able to read Cilic's serve and he was beginning to look comfortable with the pace of the serve as well as the power of Cilic's groundstrokes.

The 4th set was a mini-classic as both players upped their respective games. Serving at 1-2, Federer made a couple of errors from either wing to go down 15-40. He once again summoned his inner-genius to hit a few unreturnable serves (including a few second serves) and hold for 2-2. In the very next game, Cilic faced a similar situation. When 15-40 down, the Croatian sent down 4 consecutive aces to hold and pay tribute to his coach, Goran Ivanisevic. Serving at 4-5, 30-40, the Swiss saved the first match point of the day. Then at 5-6, 30-40, Federer saved another match point. The inevitable tie-break arrived and it was no less dramatic than the entire 4th set. Serving at 6-4, Federer had two set points, but Cilic won three straight points to earn his 3rd match point. The tension was palpable as a big second serve again saved Federer. The Swiss finally won the 4th set tie-break 12-10 to level the match.

The first half of the 5th set had lesser intensity as compared to the 4th set as both players held on to their service games. Serving at 3-4, 30-40, Cilic saved the 2nd break point of the set via a forehand winner but couldn't save the third as he sent a forehand fractionally wide. Serving for the match at 5-3, Federer decided that he'd had enough of drama as he closed out the match with an ace.

It was just an incredible match (see my short Facebook post after the match) and one of the best comeback wins by Federer over his career. He would go on to lose in the semi-final against Milos Raonic and an injury sustained in the 5th set of that match, convinced the Swiss to call time on his 2016 season. He's currently tied with Pete Sampras and William Renshaw, for the most number of Wimbledon titles (7), and would be acutely aware that breaking away from this pack won't be easy against an in-form Cilic on Sunday. Fingers crossed for a high-quality encounter; another pulsating 5-setter won't be bad at all!