US Open 2017: The "Injured" Open!

Andy Murray announced yesterday that he would be pulling out of this year's US Open due to the ongoing hip injury. The British no. 1 and the 2012 US Open champion, who hasn't played since Wimbledon, has seen his no. 1 ranking slip away in this absence. He is the 5th player in the ATP Top 11 rankings to have pulled out of this year's US Open. Both the last year's finalists, Wawrinka and Djokovic, have already pulled out. And so have the 2014 finalist, Kei Nishikori, and the 2016 Wimbledon finalist, Milos Raonic. In fact, Wawrinka, Djokovic and Nishikori have called time on their 2017 season. And Roger Federer, the player who set this very trend last year, comes into his 17th US Open after recovering from a minor niggle.

It's hard to recall the last time when so many top players withdrew from a Grand Slam, on account of injury. Hence, it might seem that the field is wide open and that we might even see a surprise winner this year. However, what many fail to appreciate is the depth in men's tennis, esp. in the top 50. Left in the fray still, are four former US Open champions as well as five former semi-finalists. Let's look at the strong contenders for this year's Open and how the draw plays out.

Strong contenders

As the new world no. 1, Rafael Nadal comes into the tournament as a strong contender. His performances since achieving the historic La Decima in Paris, have been less assuring though. After the surprising defeat in the 4th round of Wimbledon, he lost in the 2nd round in Montreal and then was blasted off the court by Nick Kyrgios in the quarter-finals at Cincinnati. He's got a relatively easy passage till the 4th round where he could meet either Fabio Fognini or Tomas Berdych, both dangerous players. From there on, the path becomes difficult as he could square off against the Cincinnati Masters Champion, Grigor Dimitrov, in the quarters and then could meet his 2017 bête noire, Roger Federer in what would be their first ever US Open meeting.

With the exit of Murray, Roger Federer, is the next highest seed and he would like to make 2017 as his fourth 3-slam year, remarkably a decade after the last one. He was having a dream run after winning Wimbledon without dropping a set and then reaching the finals at Toronto before his chronic back problem returned in a straight-set defeat against Alexander Zverev. He skipped Cincinnati as a result and hence is coming into Flushing Meadows with a suspect back, which hasn't been thoroughly tested against the top players on the hard courts. And he's been handed a tough draw. Federer opens against the talented American teenager Frances Tiafoe (their 2nd meeting this year) and then, could face two-time semi-finalist, Mikhail Youzhny in the 2nd round, either of Fernando Verdasco or Feliciano Lopez in the 3rd round, the Cincinnati finalist Nick Kyrgios in the 4th round and possibly the 6th seed, Dominic Thiem in the quarters. In a way, this isn't dissimilar to the Australian Open 2017 where he was handed out a tough draw, mainly due to his ranking, and was coming into that tournament without match practice. If he's fit, then Federer will continue to mount a serious challenge for his 20th Grand Slam title and at 36, he continues to be one of the best hard-court players on tour.

The Wimbledon finalist and the 2014 US Open champion, Marin Cilic, also comes into the final grand slam of the year, on the back of an injury. He pulled out of both Montreal as well as Cincinnati Masters on account of an abductor injury. He doesn't have any major obstacles till the quarters (he could meet the rejuvenated David Ferrer in the 4th round), where he could meet the Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and his potential semi-final opponent would be the rising star and the in-form German, Alexander Zverev. Like Stan Wawrinka, the 28-year old Croat generally brings his A-game to the Grand Slams and he's at his best at the US Open (also a semi-finalist in 2015, and quarter-finalist in 2009 and 2012). He's definitely a strong contender for his 2nd US Open. 

Dark Horses

So who could spring a surprise? Could it be one of the old warhorses? In a depleted field, Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer and Monfils could fancy their chances to land their first slam. Or would it be one of the young guns who'll make a breakthrough at Flushing Meadows, much like Safin, Hewitt and Roddick in the early 2000s? Zverev, Thiem, Kyrgios will also think that their time has come. And what about the in-form Dimitrov, the late bloomer Querrey or the 2009 champion Del Potro?

The 26-year old Bulgarian, Grigor Dimitrov, is the most successful hard-court player this year. He's 24-6 on hard-courts and with 3 titles, is equal with Federer for most number of hard-court titles in 2017. He won the Cincinnati Masters without dropping a set, had a great start to the year and came very close to his first Slam Final at Melbourne (see my previous blog). He's in the same half of the draw as Nadal and Federer, and that would mean he needs to go through both of them to win his first slam (something he's done only once in 15 meetings with them). 

What does one make of Alexander Zverev? He's had a great season so far, having won two ATP Masters 1000 titles (beating Federer in the final at Montreal & beating Djokovic in the final at Rome) and 5 titles in total. Yet, he's failed to progress beyond the 4th round in the three Grand Slams this year, as success at the highest level continues to elude him (yet to reach the quarters at any slam). He's seeded in the top 4 for the first time at a Grand Slam, and has an easy path till the quarters. May be this is the tournament where the younger Zverev sibling, breaks his Grand Slam hoodoo.

Nick Kyrgios hasn't won any titles this year. He hasn't progressed beyond the 2nd round in any of the Grand Slams this year. So what makes him a dark horse? His performance against big players on big stages on the hard-courts, sets him apart. He demolished Nadal in Cincinnati, knocked out Djokovic at both Indian Wells and Acapulco, without dropping a set in any of those matches. He also has two wins over Zverev. He had a very close match with Federer in Miami, losing in three tie-break sets. His explosive game poses a grave threat to all top players but questions remain over his temperament. Despite this, he has enough firepower to cause a flutter or two in the top half of the draw. 

The Wimbledon semi-finalist, Sam Querrey has had a late resurgence of sorts. He's won two titles this year (both in Mexico incidentally) and was a semi-finalist at Wimbledon where he upset Tsonga and Murray along the way. Even more impressive was his title win at Acapulco where he went through Goffin, Thiem, Kyrgios and Nadal. He's got a kind draw and should progress to the quarters with relative ease. Here, Zverev lays in wait in what would be their first ever encounter. A repeat of the Wimbledon semi-final (vs. Cilic) can't be ruled out.

The year's final slam may have been depleted on account of pullouts but this gives a great opportunity for someone to make a mark. Will we get a first-time slam winner?     

     

French Open 2017: Top contenders

French Open 2017 will mark one full year of major upheaval in men's tennis, esp. at the top. Cast your minds back to May 2016 - Djokovic arrived in Paris, having won the three previous slams; he went on to clinch his 1st French Open title and thereby complete his career slam. Andy Murray had started to put together a string of strong clay court performances, having defeated Djokovic at Rome and he went on to reach his first final at Roland Garros, becoming the first Britisher since 1937 to do so. These two had also contested the Australian Open final that year as well as the finals of the previous two ATP Masters 1000 clay court tourneys. What about the other two members of the Big Four? Nadal, who had a good start to the clay court season in 2016 (winning Monte Carlo and Barcelona), then went on to suffer straight-set defeats against Murray (at Madrid) and Djokovic (at Rome), respectively. Nadal had to ultimately withdraw from the 3rd round at Paris, citing wrist injury. And injury is what kept Federer away from French Open 2016, ending his astonishing record of 65 consecutive grand slam appearances.

Coming into French Open 2017, however, things look very different. Djokovic's win-loss record this year reads a fairly middling 20-6 with just one title (at Doha, before the Australian Open). In 2016, those numbers were 37-3 with five titles. Andy Murray, the world no. 1, has had an even more disappointing 2017; his win-loss record this year is 16-7 overall and a ridiculously poor 4-4 on clay. On the other hand, Nadal has had a resurgence of sorts. The king of clay is already 36-6 this year and an even more impressive 17-1 on clay, with all his three titles coming on the red dirt. Three of those losses have come at the hands of his great rival, Roger Federer, who's decided to skip Roland Garros for the 2nd year in succession. This time, however, the absence is more tactical instead of being injury-induced, as the Swiss, having won at Melbourne, targets the faster courts of Wimbledon and US Open in the autumn of his career.

The most unpredictable slam!

If one glances through the list of top grand slam winners (29 winners) who've won at least 5 titles, one notices that out of a total 244 grand slam titles between them, French Open comes in at the last (constituting 42 titles or 17.2%). 

Source: Wikipedia

The numbers would've been even more skewed if not for the apathy the earlier champions showed for Australian Open. It's common knowledge that a lot of top Open-era players (Bjorn Borg, for example) skipped travelling Down Under due to scheduling (A.O. was earlier held at the end of the season), travel times involved etc. The tournament was rescheduled to January in 1987. 

If we look at slam winners since 1988 (i.e. the year Australian Open moved from grass to hard court), French Open has seen the most number of unique winners. Despite Nadal's dominance on the red clay of Paris (with 9 titles), the French Open has seen 17 different winners out of 29 titles (A.O. - 14; Wimbledon - 12; US Open - 16). Additionally, if we look at solitary title wins at the respective slams, French Open again comes out at the top (10 players with a single French Open title); the corresponding figures for other slams are A.O. - 7, Wimbledon - 6, US Open - 8.

The table below captures the respective GS winners since 1998 from amongst the list of top 29 champions (i.e. players with 5+ GS titles; as described above). Both in terms of number of winning players and no. of titles by those players, the French Open stands out.

Source: Wikipedia

Similarly, the table below captures the number of such GS winners from outside the top 29 champions (i.e. players with < 5 GS titles). It also shows other GS titles captured by these winners (i.e. outside the respective Open). On this parameter, French Open and Wimbledon stand out but Wimbledon has the least number of unique winners and most proportion of winners from Top 29. In other words, there are some one Slam wonders amongst Wimbledon winners but they are far lower in comparison to various champion players who've won multiple titles.

  

Top contenders at Paris

Between 2005 and 2014, Rafael Nadal won 9 out of the 10 French Open titles. Over the last two years, however, we've had two first-time champions - Stan Wawrinka in 2015 and Djokovic in 2016. Will we see the trend continue in 2017? Or will the 9-time champion regain his stranglehold on The Musketeers' Trophy?

Nadal remains the top contender for this year's French Open. He's won 3 of the 4 major clay court tournaments leading up to Roland Garros. In the course of his 3 titles (Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid), he lost just two sets. His 2017 nemesis, Federer, isn't playing. He'll face stiff challenge from the other two strong contenders, Djokovic and Dominic Thiem, who are both in his half of the draw (bottom half). Thiem is on a high, stringing together a 17-4 clay court record and has been the only player to overcome Rafa on clay this year. He reached the finals both at Barcelona and Madrid, losing to the Spanish giant on each occasion, before he finally overcame Nadal in the quarters at Rome. The 6th seed, Thiem was also a semi-finalist at Roland Garros last year and makes a strong case as the no. 2 contender.

The 2nd ranked Djokovic hasn't had a great year on clay. He's racked up an ordinary 8-3 record on clay but his performances have shown a gradual improvement. After losing to Goffin in the quarters at Monte-Carlo, he reached the semis at Madrid (lost to Nadal) and then the finals at Rome (lost to Alexander Zverev). The defending champion has inducted Andre Agassi as his coach, plus his pedigree on clay as well as recent record against Nadal (4-2 on clay and 9-2 overall since 2014) would definitely make him one of the strongest contenders. He's drawn to meet Thiem in the quarters and Nadal in the semis, in a heavily-loaded bottom half. The bottom half also has some dangerous floaters in Goffin, Ramos-Vinolas and Dimitrov.  

The top half of the draw contains, in my view, the two dark horses of this year's open. Alexander Zverev has put together a very impressive win-loss record of 16-3 on clay, with two titles including the ATP Masters 1000 Rome (Italian Open), defeating Djokovic in the finals. He's entered Top 10 for the first time (going in to Roland Garros as world no. 10) and is set to better his 2016 win-loss record. He's slated to start against Verdasco in the first round, and occupies the same quarter of the draw as Berdych and world no. 1, Murray, but I expect him to make it to the semis this year. Last but not the least, is the world no. 3 and 2015 champion, Stan Wawrinka. His overall win-loss record this year is an ordinary 16-8 while his record on clay is 6-3. Stan has always blown hot, blown cold outside grand slams. However, in grand slams, since the beginning of 2015, he's won two, reached the semis of four others as well as the quarters at one. Across five sets and towards the latter part of a grand slam tournament, Stan is as good as any of the Big Four. That's why, in my view, he should be considered as a very strong contender. Watch out for Pablo Cuevas and Fabio Fognini in the top half - they could cause some upsets.

Between 2001 and 2004, Roland Garros witnessed four different champions. And none of them won another grand slam outside French Open. Will we see a new champion emerge this year? Or will the hegemony of the Big Four + Wawrinka, continue? The 2nd Sunday of June will have the answers!   

  

     

"Sun Shines" brightly on Federer

"The comeback is over", declared Roger Federer after his win over Rafael Nadal in the Miami Open final. Many would disagree with this assessment - they believe that moment had already arrived a couple of months back in Melbourne. However, what cannot be disputed is the grit and resilience displayed by the 18-slam winner over the last three weeks. At Indian Wells, the elegant Swiss didn't drop a set, was nearly impenetrable on serve (dropping serve just once) and breezed through the entire tournament without breaking a sweat (see my blog). In hot and humid Miami, things were much tougher though. Federer came through a gruelling 4th round encounter against Bautista Agut in two tie-breaks, had to save two match points against Berdych in the quarters (3rd set tie-break) and then in the semis, managed to overcome the red-hot Kyrgios in 3 very tight tie-break sets in a match that is already being billed as the match-of-the-year. In comparison, the final against his old nemesis, seemed like a cakewalk.

Road to the finals

R16 vs. Roberto Bautista Agut - 1st stiff challenge since Dubai

Coming through a tough draw, Federer dropped 2 sets and had to endure 7 tie-breaks, en-route to the final. His first real challenge didn't come, as was expected, from Del Potro in the 3rd round (6-3, 6-4) but from the 14th-seed, Roberto Bautista Agut in the next round. The Spaniard had overcome the impressive Sam Querrey in the previous round and matched Federer shot-for-shot in the pre-quarters. He first successfully fought-off three consecutive break points in his first service game and then broke Federer at 4-4 to earn the opportunity to serve out the first set. Unfortunately, nerves got the better of him as Federer upped the ante. The Spaniard quickly went down 0-40 and was broken on love, when he double-faulted. The set ultimately went to a tie-break and saw Federer rushing to the net on decisive moments to clinch the breaker, 7-5. The Indian Wells champion broke in the very first game of the 2nd set but the tenacious Spaniard broke back immediately to level terms. With Federer's formidable first serve as well as forehand misfiring on more than a few occasions, and Bautista Agut continuing to play solidly from both wings, the 2nd set too went to a tie-breaker. The Swiss again favoured the net on decisive moments and won the breaker easily (7-4) to take the set and match. Overall, it was a scratchy performance by Federer, putting only 49% of first serves in, making 32 unforced errors and converting only 2 of 10 break point opportunities. However, he continued to play aggressively, came to the net often, hit 30 winners overall and came through in nearly two hours.

QF vs. Tomas Berdych - saved two match points

Federer's next opponent was Tomas Berdych, who hadn't dropped a set till then, and even though the no. 4 seed held a 17-6 head-to-head advantage over the tall Czech and had demolished him in straight sets at the Australian Open 2017, the Swiss knew that he had to fire from the outset. That mental alertness showed as he broke Berdych in the very first game of the match (the first time Berdych was broken in the tournament) and snuffed out a break-point on his own serve to consolidate the break. Both players then held serve easily for their next couple of service games, with their forehands inflicting more damage. In the 7th game however, Federer increased the tempo on Berdych's serve. From 15-0 down, Federer unleashed the full array of strokes - first hitting a forehand down-the-line winner, then ripping a backhand cross-court winner, then hitting an inside-out forehand cross-court winner to bring up two break points, and finally, going up a 2nd break by employing a delicious, loopy, backhand dropshot winner that rendered Berdych unsure, flat-footed and motionless. Federer served out the first set by sending an ace down the middle, taking the set 6-2. This demolition job looked very similar to their 3rd round encounter Down Under where Federer ran away with a 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 win. However, Berdych was in no mood to let history repeat itself. He began serving huge, used a judicious mix of power and spin from both wings, and started finding angles as well as depth on the court, to keep Federer at bay. Federer himself was playing at a decent level but Berdych's level, esp. on the return games, had gone up several notches. Finally, the Czech broke his opponent's serve in the 8th game and then made a few brilliant forays to the net on his own service game, to take the 2nd set 6-3, thereby leveling the match.

The early part of set 3 was very entertaining with both players playing deep & aggressive, making lovely half-volley pickups from the baseline, and generally committing fewer unforced errors. However, in the 6th game, Federer drew first blood, finally converting his 4th break point of the set as Berdych made a few unforced errors trying to hit big on the forehand side. Then, serving for the match at 5-3, it was Federer's turn to make unforced errors - first an error in judgement followed by one in execution - as he was broken to love. In the next game, he had a match point on Berdych's serve at 30-40 but Berdych quickly erased that by a huge first serve and went on to hold to level the 3rd set at 5-5. The set, inevitably, moved on to a tie-break and Berdych, who was hitting crisp winners from both wings, had a slight upper hand. He clinched the first mini-break but Federer came back strongly, winning the next two points on Berdych's serve. Berdych got the mini-break back immediately as Federer double-faulted, and then he forced Federer to hit a backhand long at 4-4 to earn an opportunity to serve out the match. An amazing backhand down-the-line winner brought up two match points for Berdych (6-4) but then he netted a forehand and Federer followed up with two huge serves to go ahead 7-6. Down match point, Berdych committed a double fault to bring the curtains down on a topsy-turvy, but highly entertaining match. Both players hit 37 winners apiece but in a game of wafer-thin margins, Federer committed fewer unforced errors (22 to Berdych's 27) and got out of jail in another 2-hour battle.    

SF vs. Nick Kyrgios - three tie-breakers

For the 2nd time in exactly two weeks, two of the hottest players of 2017 faced up to each other. Federer and Kyrgios were supposed to play a highly anticipated quarter-final at Indian Wells (see my blog) before the Aussie had to pull out due to food-poisoning. Both players play a similar brand of attacking, first-strike tennis by taking the ball early. Both came off tight QF encounters and everybody was expecting a high-octane match with short points decided by ample dozes of winners and unforced errors. What we got, instead, was a match of the highest quality.

Federer, as is his wont, was off the blocks quickly, holding serve easily and putting pressure on Kyrgios' serve. He earned three break points in the first two return games, set up by a slew of exquisite winners, but couldn't convert any of them as Kyrgios' huge serve came in handy at the right moments. Having survived these nervy moments, Kyrgios started getting more confident. He comfortably held in the 6th game and broke Federer in the 7th game, aided by a couple of sumptuous backhands. While Kyrgios consolidated his break via an impressive service game to go up 5-3, Federer was clearly struggling to hold in the crucial 9th game. He was thrice taken to deuce but managed to hold his serve. With Kyrgios' serve looking overwhelming, the first set looked like a few shots away. Instead, Federer played an incredible return game, mixing offence with defence, forcing Kyrgios into errors and breaking back to level things up, at 5-5. He even held a set point on Kyrgios' serve at 30-40, 6-5 but the Australian again came up with huge deliveries to take the set to a tie-break. The pair exchanged a couple of mini-breaks early on but some audacious play by Federer on 5-5, helped him secure another set point; this time on his serve. He was to be denied when he shot wide while trying to rip a backhand down-the-line. After winning a couple of points each on serve, Kyrgios secured another mini-break to go up 9-8 and gain an opportunity to serve on set point (his 2nd of the set). However, Federer was to deny him again through a magical backhand winner down-the-line. Then, Kyrgios tried to go for extra on his second serve and committed a double fault to hand Federer a 4th set point opportunity and this time, Federer clinched it to go one set up (11-9 in the tie-break).

The first 6 service games in the 2nd set were routine holds with no break point opportunities for either player, and featured four love-holds as well as a tweener by Kyrgios. Then in the 7th game, Federer secured two break points but was unable to convert either of them as the Aussie held on. This seemed like a minor aberration as normal services were restored thereafter, with both players comfortably holding their serves. At 5-5, Federer tried to force the issue on the Aussie's serve through two remarkable backhand winners, but Kyrgios' serve bailed him out again. Federer meanwhile had no such troubles on his serve and lost just 5 points on his serve throughout the 2nd set. A tie-breaker followed, the 2nd of this match and the 5th consecutive one that these guys have played! Unlike the 1st set, both guys started off soundly on their serves. The Swiss maestro was the first to break away, playing aggressively and forcing the error, to go up 5-4 with two chances on his serve to close out the match. Kyrgios got the crucial mini-break back by employing an amazing forehand down-the-line winner, hit while back-pedaling to a deep ball on his backhand corner. Federer held a match point at 6-5 on Kyrgios' serve but failed to capitalize as his backhand slice landed slightly long. His next match point came at 8-7 but shockingly, he dumped an 88 mph second serve return at the bottom of the net. Some excellent serving by the Aussie from thereon, ensured that he won the tie-break 11-9 and leveled the match.

If the Swiss champ was disappointed at missing out on the opportunities in the 2nd set, it clearly didn't show as he held serve comfortably in the 3rd set too. He got a look-in on Kyrgios' serve in the 4th game, producing exceptional tennis but the Aussie matched him stroke-for-stroke and held on. The pattern would repeat in the 10th game as Federer forced a deuce but couldn't break his opponent's resolve or his serve. His own service remained solid and he dropped just 6 points on his serve in the 3rd set. The pair threw everything at each other - huge serves, forehand drives, backhand slices, serve and volley, drop shots - but neither could surge ahead and in time, the inevitable tie-break arrived. The two-time Miami champion started the tie-break with a moment of magic - an insane backhand half-volley pickup that was hit down-the-line to successfully pass the advancing Kyrgios. Nonetheless, it was the youngster who won the first mini-break when Federer went wide with his forehand. Kyrgios had an opportunity to serve out the match at 5-4 but he was first undone a deep backhand from Federer that he swatted out and then, shockingly, he served a double fault to hand a 3rd match point to Federer. The Swiss was in no mood to let that one go and produced a big first serve out wide to force a backhand error and wrap up the match in 3 hours and 10 minutes. It was a stunning match, played at a very high level throughout - Federer outhit Kyrgios in the winners department (54 vs. 38) and crucially, in a matchup between big servers, won more 1st serve return points (25% vs. 15%).

Grand Finale - Fedal XXXVII

As compared to Federer, Nadal had a relatively easier path to the finals. After astonishingly losing the first set 6-0 against Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 3rd round, Rafa went from strength to strength. He didn't lose another set leading up to the finals, and his most impressive victory came over the in-form Jack Sock in the quarter-finals - he outplayed the 13th seed American, 6-2, 6-3. Having spent considerably less time on court than his arch rival, and given the slowish court speed at Miami, many would've considered Nadal as the favourite going in to this 3rd Federer-Nadal meeting of 2017. 

Federer's serve was under pressure in the first game of the match, and like their Indian Wells encounter, Nadal earned two break point opportunities. But the Swiss erased both those opportunities via a persistent, attacking game plan - hitting a forehand winner to end a 15 shot rally on the first one, and then advancing to the net to cut off a backhand volley & snuff out the second one. The next two games went off smoothly with both players holding their serves comfortably. Nadal had clearly come out with a more aggressive game plan, ripping his double-handed backhand flat and cross-court on most occasions. Both players were going hammer and tongs and this set the tone for the next five games in the opening set. There were five break point opportunities over the next four games but neither player could capitalize. It was almost like the initial rounds of a heavyweight boxing bout where both boxers throw enough jabs but refrain from landing a decisive uppercut. Then, in the 8th game, Nadal's dogged resistance was finally broken. After saving two more break points in the game, Nadal couldn't cope up with Federer's ferocious forehand. The Swiss set up his 3rd break point of the game (and 6th of the set) through a forehand cross-court return winner and followed that up with an inside out forehand drive, that had Nadal scampering to his forehand corner and dumping a weak response into the net, to secure the decisive break. Federer then held on comfortably to win the first set, 6-3.

The Aussie Open finalist pair started the 2nd set serving confidently and faced no hurdles in the first 6 games. In fact, Nadal just lost three points on his serve in his first 3 service games while Federer lost none! Then, in the 7th game, Federer started tightening the screws. He got his first break point of the set thanks to an explosive backhand drive. The Spaniard quickly wiped that out through an intelligent drop shot followed by a forehand volley winner. And even though he presented Federer with another break point opportunity in that game, the Swiss couldn't take advantage and Nadal held on. The pumped up Spaniard then got his first two points on Federer's serve (in the set) but couldn't go any further as Federer held to 30. In the next game, Federer again started applying pressure. At 30-30, Federer got slightly lucky as his backhand caught the tape and had Nadal scrambling forward. The weak response from the Spaniard was met by a very intelligent lob deep into the backhand corner to bring up another break point. This time Federer was not letting it go, his backhand down-the-line service return catching Rafa off-guard and forcing him to hit long. Serving for the championship at 5-4, Federer started with a double-fault. Then, as if to make up, he finished a 17-shot rally with a bit of Fed magic - a spectacular backhand half-volley pickup winner directed down-the-line, from the baseline. At 30-30, he produced another one to bring up match point - an outrageous inside out forehand cross-court winner. A huge serve on match point was enough to draw an error from Rafa and secure his 14th career victory over the Spaniard.  

Although the final never reached the dizzying heights of the previous two rounds, Federer did enough to win, 6-3, 6-4. He hit 29 winners to Nadal's 15 and even made fewer unforced errors (19 to 23). Crucially, Federer converted 2 out of 9 break point opportunities while Nadal couldn't convert any of the 4 opportunities he got.

Third Sunshine Double

By winning his 3rd Miami title (and having won Indian Wells a couple of weeks back), Roger Federer completed his 3rd Sunshine Double, eleven years after his previous one. This was also his 3rd straight victory over Nadal in 2017 (4th consecutive overall) as well as his 3rd tournament victory of this year. The tournament victory also marked his 26th ATP Masters 1000 title and 91st tour-level tournament overall. His ATP ranking has improved to no. 4 (from no. 17 at the beginning of Australian Open this year) and he's currently leading the singles Race to London. The Swiss, at a ripe of age of 35, has a realistic chance of becoming world no. 1 again. However, he's decided not to rush into things and is likely to skip the entire clay court season (except for the French Open), in order to focus on Wimbledon, the US Open and the hard-court season. His 19-1 start to the year is his best since 2006 i.e. around the time when he was winning everything in sight (except French Open) and the year in which he racked up an incredible 92-5 season record. He's unlikely to match that in 2017. However, since these 19 wins include a 3-0 record against Nadal, April 2017 may just feel more pleasant than April 2006!

Vintage Federer looking to secure 3rd Sunshine Double in Miami

As the tennis bandwagon traveled from the deserts of California to the beaches of Florida, one question doing the rounds was whether Roger Federer can follow-up his victory at Indian Wells with a title win at Miami. This Sunshine Double i.e. winning Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back, that completes the spring hardcourt season in North America, is one of the toughest to achieve - only 7 players ever have achieved this. The list includes Federer, who along with Djokovic, is the only player to have achieved this more than once. So, can Federer round-off the early hardcourt season by winning the first three major tournaments of 2017?

Indian Wells finals

Federer capped a wonderful week with a straight sets victory over compatriot and friend, Stan Wawrinka, to clinch his 5th Indian Wells title. He won the prestigious tournament without dropping a set throughout the course of the tournament. After dominating Nadal, Federer got slightly lucky when the in-form Kyrgios withdrew before their quarter-final encounter, citing food poisoning. With the Federer backhand firing the way it was against Nadal, the Jack Sock challenge in the semis was overcome in straight sets too. This set up an exciting encounter with Wawrinka, their 2nd this year.

The two Swiss giants went toe-to-toe in the first few games. Federer was off-the-blocks in a hurry, hitting 4 crisp winners in the very first game of the match. Wawrinka kept pace through some heavy hitting esp. on the forehand side. Both players were serving well and none of them faced any break-points in the first 9 games of the set. At 4-5, 30-15, a Wawrinka first serve (out wide) was called out and while Wawrinka didn't challenge that decision, the hawk-eye later suggested that the ball had just clipped the side-line. This proved crucial as Federer won the next three points, hitting huge forehands and mixing his pace & spin on backhands, to take the first set 6-4. Overall, Federer lost just four points on his serve throughout the set, hit nine winners and converted the only break point opportunity he got.

Wawrinka came out firing in the 2nd set, hitting three blistering forehand winners to break Federer in the opening game. This was the first (and only) time Federer's serve was broken during the tournament. On his serve in the next game, Wawrinka was down a break point after Federer hit a forehand down-the-line return winner. At break point, Wawrinka's approach shot was called out. This time, the US Open champion challenged that decision and the hawk-eye overturned the umpire's decision. Federer earned another break point opportunity in that game but Wawrinka held firm and consolidated his break to go up 2-0. It may have seemed that Wawrinka had turned a corner and had done enough to win the 2nd set, thereby taking the match into the decider. Federer however, was determined to make a comeback and ready to change tactics to mount one. He went on to win his next service game very comfortably by repeatedly coming into the net. And in the next game, when Wawrinka presented him a couple of break points through a series of unforced errors, he chipped a backhand directly at the feet of the advancing Wawrinka to elicit a weak half-volley and then hit a searing forehand down-the-line pass to break back and level the 2nd set. That basically set the template for the rest of the match. Federer repeatedly came to the net in his service games, and constantly moved Wawrinka around the court on his service games, to elicit the errors. With Wawrinka serving at 5-6, 30-30, Federer sensed an opportunity and pounced on his opponent's serves, taking them really early and finally breaking Wawrinka's resolve to win the set & match, 6-4, 7-5.

Overall, Federer hit 22 winners and made 16 unforced errors as compared to 16 winners and 21 unforced errors from the racquet of Wawrinka. He won his 5th Indian Wells title without dropping a set. This was also his 25th ATP Masters 1000 title (becoming the oldest player to win an ATP Masters 1000) and 90th tournament overall. This tournament win also propelled Federer to World No. 6 in ATP rankings.

Miami Open - Tournament wide open

Both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic withdrew from this year's Miami Open, citing similar elbow injuries. Their withdrawals are significant as they've established a dupoly on this tournament, winning 8 of the last 10 titles. So much so, that Nadal has failed to win this tournament even once (despite reaching 4 finals) and Federer, a two-time winner (the last title came in 2006), last reached a semi-final here in 2011 (he hasn't played in 3 of the last 6 years).  

The absence of the top two players in the world, has therefore, considerably opened up the field, as well as given the top seeds like Wawrinka, Nishikori, Federer and Nadal, an easier path to the semis. Nadal and Federer are pitted in opposite halves of the draw and hence, can't meet before the finals. Wawrinka and Federer are slotted in the same half and can potentially meet in the semi-finals. It won't be an easy ride though as Federer could meet the explosive Del Potro in the 3rd round (Head to Head: 15-5), the Acapulco champion Sam Querrey in the 4th round (H2H: 3-0), and the talented Dominic Thiem (H2H: 1-2) or Tomas Berdych (H2H: 17-6) in the quarters. Wawrinka has a slightly easier path to the quarters, given recent form of his likely opponents, but then the in-form Nick Kyrgios awaits in the quarters (H2H: 2-2). Also, he's unlikely to have it easy against likely opponent Alexander Zverev in the 4th round (H2H: 0-1).

The plethora of upsets in the bottom half of the draw yesterday, means that both Nadal and Nishikori are likely to have an easier path till their semi-final showdown. Nadal, who won his 2nd round encounter against Dudi Sela yesterday, is now drawn to play Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 3rd round (H2H: 13-1). Either Milos Raonic (H2H; 7-2) or Indian Wells semi-finalist, Jack Sock (H2H: 2-0), could be a quarter-final opponent for Nadal. Nishikori is slated to next meet Fernando Verdasco (H2H: 2-2), the only other remaining seed in that quarter of the draw. So a Nishikori-Nadal semi-final looks more certain than the Wawrinka-Federer one.

Why has Federer struggled at Miami?   

Federer's first appearance in Miami was in 1999 (as a wild card). He's a two-time winner (2005, 2006) and has been a runner-up in 2002 (lost to Agassi). Apart from these title appearances, he's just reached two other semi-finals (2009, 2011) and his record at the tournament is, a less-than-stellar 44-13. The slow courts have often been blamed for this. However, ATP court-speed data released in October 2016, showed Miami courts to be quicker than Indian Wells. 

Source: Reddit.com

It could be argued therefore, that more than the court speed, it's the tournament's scheduling that may have hurt Federer (coming as it does, immediately after Indian Wells). He last played here in 2014 when he lost in the quarters to Nishikori. He skipped the 2013, 2015 and 2016 editions - this seems to have been slightly low priority for Federer in the last few years. Especially since this is the last hard court tournament before the clay court season starts. Federer has clearly indicated that the clay court swing in 2017 will be low priority for him, as he has set his sights on Wimbledon. Hence, it's reasonable to expect Federer to push himself very hard for a 3rd title in Miami.

Will we witness Fedal Episode 03 of Season '17?  

While the path to the finals is not easy for either Federer or Nadal, millions of fans would be eagerly anticipating their third meeting in 2017. It's quite incredible, considering that having not met in 2016 and only once in 2015, they can potentially meet for the 3rd time in the first three months of 2017! They've met in Miami on three previous occasions with Nadal triumphing on two occasions. In fact, their first two career meetings were in Miami. In 2004, the 17 year old Nadal upset the world no. 1 Federer in straight sets (3rd round) and made the tennis world sit up and take notice. The following year, the duo met in the finals. Nadal won the first two sets and was up 4-1 in the 3rd. Federer then mounted a stunning comeback by breaking back and winning the tight 3rd set in a tie-break. This proved to be the turning point - Federer raced away with the final two sets as the rapidly-tiring Nadal couldn't keep up. That was Federer's first Miami title and Nadal's first runner-up performance. Two months later, Nadal won his first grand slam title at Roland-Garros and his victory over Federer in the semis, launched his winning head-to-head record against the Swiss giant.

In both their meetings in 2017, Federer has overcome Nadal by being very aggressive with his backhand and taking the balls very early (see my previous blog). By doing this twice within a space of six weeks, Federer has revealed his hand. If they meet again on 2nd April, Nadal will be hoping to find an ace up his sleeve!

Federer and Kyrgios set up blockbuster QF at Indian Wells

Roger Federer and Nick Kyrgios came through their blockbuster 4th round encounters at Indian Wells in straight sets on Wednesday. While the victories were not entirely surprising (given recent head-to-head record), the scorelines definitely were. One would've expected Nadal and Djokovic, respectively, to take the match to the decider. However, both Federer and Kyrgios relentlessly stuck to a very aggressive game plan and neither of them offered any window of opportunity to their opponents. This ensured that they are now, the last men standing in this "Quarter of Death".

Djokovic - Kyrgios: Acapulco to California

This match was a repeat of the quarter final match in Acapulco (Mexican Open), a couple of weeks back. Then, Kyrgios had upset Djokovic in two close sets 7-6(9), 7-5. Who would have thought that the brilliant-but-inconsistent Kyrgios will outmatch that superlative performance with such a powerful display at Indian Wells that by the time the match ended, Djokovic was left dazed, unsure and frustrated.

Kyrgios gave a superlative serving performance, sending down 14 aces, winning 86% of first serves and he also denied Djokovic any break point opportunity. The last bit was crucial, coming as it was, against one of the best returners of all time. In his 6-4, 7-6(3) victory achieved in 112 mins, the Aussie blasted 25 winners and made just 19 unforced errors. Contrast this with Djokovic, who made 25 unforced errors, a lot of them from his normally reliable backhand side. This defeat ended the three-time defending champion's 19-match winning streak at Indian Wells. The tall Canberra native broke Djokovic in the very first game of the match and, even though he had chances to go double-break up in the 3rd and 7th games, this lone break was enough to secure the opening set. The second set was much closer with Djokovic holding his service more comfortably until the 11th game, where he had to fend off two break points to force the set into a tie-breaker. Here too, Kyrgios was way too powerful, going up a mini-break very early on and thoroughly dominated the tie-break to win it 7 points to 3.

Apart from his massive service, Kyrgios managed to stay with Djokovic in most of the long rallies. His ability to constantly change directions & pace on his groundstrokes did not allow Djokovic to settle into any rhythm. Plus, he took a lot of service returns very early, winning 30% of first serve return points and managed to upstage Djokovic even in this aspect. No wonder, the Serb was so frustrated that he constantly berated himself and even smashed his racquet to pieces after losing the first set.

Fedal: Season '17 Episode 02!

When the draw for the tournament was out, the first match-up everybody took note of, was the potential 4th round encounter between Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal. After all, this would be their earliest meeting in any tournament since their first ever encounter in Miami 13 years ago. The fact that this 4th round encounter was taking place after a high-octane Australian Open final, contested by these two only six weeks ago, made it even more promising. 

Federer had defeated Nadal at the Australian Open by employing a very aggressive game-plan where he was taking his shots very early, keeping the points shorter and flattening out his backhand (instead of using slice). Even though the surface at Indian Wells is much slower than the one at Rod Laver arena, Federer wasn't going to abandon this game plan. He broke Nadal in the very first game of the match, hitting two winners, hitting hard & deep from both wings, taking the service very early and basically setting the template for the match. Nadal had a break point opportunity in the next game but Federer quickly snuffed that out with a huge serve and went on to hold, thereby consolidating his break. Alas, that was the last service break opportunity that Nadal had for the entire match. Federer broke Nadal again in the 5th game, winning the game via an exquisite backhand down-the-line return winner. He eventually won the first set 6-2. Although Rafa started the 2nd set confidently, Federer broke him in the 3rd game, sealing it with a screaming, inside-out forehand cross-court winner. Thereafter, Federer was rarely troubled on his service games and this enabled him to take more risks on Nadal's service games. This gamble eventually paid off as Federer broke Nadal again in the 9th game, winning the game, set and match with another backhand down-the-line return winner.

The utterly dominant 6-2, 6-3 win came in only 68 minutes and helped Federer close the H2H gap with Nadal (now stands at 23-13). The Swiss genius hit 5 aces and won 76% of first serve points, 75% of 2nd serve points and 44% of first return points. All these numbers were far superior to Nadal. In all, he hit 26 winners and made 17 unforced errors vis-a-vis Nadal who hit 10 winners and 15 unforced errors. Under Ljubicic, Federer seems to have a better game plan against Nadal. Also, the larger racquet head (which he adopted in 2014) seems to have made him more confident to hit flat / topspin backhands instead of slice (esp. on big points). Lastly, he's improved his defensive game as well, introducing a sort-of-loopy backhand when pushed into a defensive position - this shot is hit deep and gives Federer the chance to recover his court position and also elicits a weaker response from the opponent. 

Federer, Kyrgios and the path to glory!

Federer and Kyrgios will clash for a place in the semi-finals. In their only previous encounter, held on clay in 2015, Kyrgios had defeated Federer in three tight sets (all sets were decided by a tie-break). With Andy Murray already eliminated from the top half of the draw, the winner of this QF will have a good chance of going all the way. Given his recent form, Kyrgios will be quite confident of reaching his 3rd consecutive semi-final in tournaments this year. Federer, on the other hand, buoyed by his recent victories over Nadal, would be keen to win his 5th Indian Wells title, his 25th ATP Masters 1000 title and his 90th tournament overall. Whatever the outcome, we are all set for a potentially entertaining QF!