US Open 2017: The "Injured" Open!

Andy Murray announced yesterday that he would be pulling out of this year's US Open due to the ongoing hip injury. The British no. 1 and the 2012 US Open champion, who hasn't played since Wimbledon, has seen his no. 1 ranking slip away in this absence. He is the 5th player in the ATP Top 11 rankings to have pulled out of this year's US Open. Both the last year's finalists, Wawrinka and Djokovic, have already pulled out. And so have the 2014 finalist, Kei Nishikori, and the 2016 Wimbledon finalist, Milos Raonic. In fact, Wawrinka, Djokovic and Nishikori have called time on their 2017 season. And Roger Federer, the player who set this very trend last year, comes into his 17th US Open after recovering from a minor niggle.

It's hard to recall the last time when so many top players withdrew from a Grand Slam, on account of injury. Hence, it might seem that the field is wide open and that we might even see a surprise winner this year. However, what many fail to appreciate is the depth in men's tennis, esp. in the top 50. Left in the fray still, are four former US Open champions as well as five former semi-finalists. Let's look at the strong contenders for this year's Open and how the draw plays out.

Strong contenders

As the new world no. 1, Rafael Nadal comes into the tournament as a strong contender. His performances since achieving the historic La Decima in Paris, have been less assuring though. After the surprising defeat in the 4th round of Wimbledon, he lost in the 2nd round in Montreal and then was blasted off the court by Nick Kyrgios in the quarter-finals at Cincinnati. He's got a relatively easy passage till the 4th round where he could meet either Fabio Fognini or Tomas Berdych, both dangerous players. From there on, the path becomes difficult as he could square off against the Cincinnati Masters Champion, Grigor Dimitrov, in the quarters and then could meet his 2017 bête noire, Roger Federer in what would be their first ever US Open meeting.

With the exit of Murray, Roger Federer, is the next highest seed and he would like to make 2017 as his fourth 3-slam year, remarkably a decade after the last one. He was having a dream run after winning Wimbledon without dropping a set and then reaching the finals at Toronto before his chronic back problem returned in a straight-set defeat against Alexander Zverev. He skipped Cincinnati as a result and hence is coming into Flushing Meadows with a suspect back, which hasn't been thoroughly tested against the top players on the hard courts. And he's been handed a tough draw. Federer opens against the talented American teenager Frances Tiafoe (their 2nd meeting this year) and then, could face two-time semi-finalist, Mikhail Youzhny in the 2nd round, either of Fernando Verdasco or Feliciano Lopez in the 3rd round, the Cincinnati finalist Nick Kyrgios in the 4th round and possibly the 6th seed, Dominic Thiem in the quarters. In a way, this isn't dissimilar to the Australian Open 2017 where he was handed out a tough draw, mainly due to his ranking, and was coming into that tournament without match practice. If he's fit, then Federer will continue to mount a serious challenge for his 20th Grand Slam title and at 36, he continues to be one of the best hard-court players on tour.

The Wimbledon finalist and the 2014 US Open champion, Marin Cilic, also comes into the final grand slam of the year, on the back of an injury. He pulled out of both Montreal as well as Cincinnati Masters on account of an abductor injury. He doesn't have any major obstacles till the quarters (he could meet the rejuvenated David Ferrer in the 4th round), where he could meet the Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and his potential semi-final opponent would be the rising star and the in-form German, Alexander Zverev. Like Stan Wawrinka, the 28-year old Croat generally brings his A-game to the Grand Slams and he's at his best at the US Open (also a semi-finalist in 2015, and quarter-finalist in 2009 and 2012). He's definitely a strong contender for his 2nd US Open. 

Dark Horses

So who could spring a surprise? Could it be one of the old warhorses? In a depleted field, Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer and Monfils could fancy their chances to land their first slam. Or would it be one of the young guns who'll make a breakthrough at Flushing Meadows, much like Safin, Hewitt and Roddick in the early 2000s? Zverev, Thiem, Kyrgios will also think that their time has come. And what about the in-form Dimitrov, the late bloomer Querrey or the 2009 champion Del Potro?

The 26-year old Bulgarian, Grigor Dimitrov, is the most successful hard-court player this year. He's 24-6 on hard-courts and with 3 titles, is equal with Federer for most number of hard-court titles in 2017. He won the Cincinnati Masters without dropping a set, had a great start to the year and came very close to his first Slam Final at Melbourne (see my previous blog). He's in the same half of the draw as Nadal and Federer, and that would mean he needs to go through both of them to win his first slam (something he's done only once in 15 meetings with them). 

What does one make of Alexander Zverev? He's had a great season so far, having won two ATP Masters 1000 titles (beating Federer in the final at Montreal & beating Djokovic in the final at Rome) and 5 titles in total. Yet, he's failed to progress beyond the 4th round in the three Grand Slams this year, as success at the highest level continues to elude him (yet to reach the quarters at any slam). He's seeded in the top 4 for the first time at a Grand Slam, and has an easy path till the quarters. May be this is the tournament where the younger Zverev sibling, breaks his Grand Slam hoodoo.

Nick Kyrgios hasn't won any titles this year. He hasn't progressed beyond the 2nd round in any of the Grand Slams this year. So what makes him a dark horse? His performance against big players on big stages on the hard-courts, sets him apart. He demolished Nadal in Cincinnati, knocked out Djokovic at both Indian Wells and Acapulco, without dropping a set in any of those matches. He also has two wins over Zverev. He had a very close match with Federer in Miami, losing in three tie-break sets. His explosive game poses a grave threat to all top players but questions remain over his temperament. Despite this, he has enough firepower to cause a flutter or two in the top half of the draw. 

The Wimbledon semi-finalist, Sam Querrey has had a late resurgence of sorts. He's won two titles this year (both in Mexico incidentally) and was a semi-finalist at Wimbledon where he upset Tsonga and Murray along the way. Even more impressive was his title win at Acapulco where he went through Goffin, Thiem, Kyrgios and Nadal. He's got a kind draw and should progress to the quarters with relative ease. Here, Zverev lays in wait in what would be their first ever encounter. A repeat of the Wimbledon semi-final (vs. Cilic) can't be ruled out.

The year's final slam may have been depleted on account of pullouts but this gives a great opportunity for someone to make a mark. Will we get a first-time slam winner?     

     

Wimbledon 2017: Previewing the pre-quarters

This blog is available as a video blog on https://youtu.be/2RrcWlAtMGk

Wimbledon remains the only Grand Slam where no play is held on the middle Sunday. This then provides us the opportunity to pause and take stock. To start off, a pop-quiz! When was the last time that each member of the Big Four survived the first week of a Grand Slam tournament? Believe it or not, it was more than 2 years and 8 Grand Slams ago - in the French Open 2015. So the headline of the week surely must be about the strong comeback by the Big Four. And it's not just the fact that they've all reached the 4th round but also the manner in which they've gone about their business. Between them, Murray, Djokovic, Federer and Nadal, have lost just one set on their way to the Round of 16. They've all overcome tricky opponents with relative ease. The other strong contenders, namely Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic, have also been impressive as they too have lost just one set between them.

The upsets amongst the Top 10 aren't really shocking. Both Wawrinka and Nishikori don't consider grass as their favourite surface, have a below-par record at Wimbledon and to make matters worse, they were both handed out brutal draws. What has been slightly surprising though, is Dominic Thiem's performance. He wasn't in great grass-court form coming into this tournament, but he's through to his first Round of 16 at Wimbledon.

The other talk dominating headlines is how the surface is playing. Some players have complained about the quality of the grass, how it is playing slowly, how some courts are slippery, how the grass is uneven. Of course, the lack of rainfall has made the surface behave like a slow hard court and that probably explains the lack of big upsets or even contests. However, I do think that the contests will become very interesting from hereon.

The most interesting match-up in the top half of the draw is between 2-time champion, Nadal and the in-form Gilles Muller. Muller, a tall leftie from Luxembourg, is a grass court specialist and is coming into this match on the back of an impressive grass-court season. He reached the semis at Queen's, falling to Cilic in a tough 3-setter, and won the Rosmalen Championship a week earlier, beating Alexander Zverev in straight sets on his way to the title. The two southpaws have met twice at Wimbledon in the past. Muller won the first encounter in 2005 while Nadal exacted revenge in 2011. Nadal has been in sensational form, having not dropped a set in his last 10 grand slam matches but this could be a tough test. Muller has a huge serve, hits a lot of aces (he's at the top of the ace-chart) and employs a classic serve-and-volley game. But will his game stand up to scrutiny against Rafa's relentless baseline game? This will be an entertaining match and may even go the distance, but I expect Rafa to come through.

Amongst other Round of 16 matches in the top half, I expect Murray and Cilic to come through their encounters with relative ease. Sam Querrey has racked up some impressive wins again this year and he's up against Kevin Anderson in a battle of tall players with huge serves. Both these guys are joint third in the aces count, having hit 68 aces each. Hence, don't expect long rallies. Tough one to call, may even go to five sets but I expect Querrey to come through this one and reach his 2nd consecutive quarter final at the Big W.

The bottom half of the draw has some potentially mouth-watering match-ups. Strong contender Raonic comes up against the rising star, Alexander Zverev. Both players are very good on grass but recent form suggests a slight upper hand for the German. Raonic obviously has the better serve but Zverev is very good from the baseline, esp. on the backhand side. The last year's finalist has gone deep in various Grand Slams previously while for Zverev, this will be his first Round of 16 match at a Grand Slam. In their only previous meeting, Zverev got the better of Raonic on clay at Rome Masters earlier in the season. I expect him to do an encore on grass and make his first Grand Slam quarter-final.

Federer and Dimitrov go up against each other for the first time since 2016 Australian Open. The 7-time Wimbledon champion has looked sensational this season, having won his 18th Grand Slam in Australia followed by the Sunshine Double in March. His clay court hiatus was followed by a stupendous victory at Halle. He's considered as the strongest contender at this year's Wimbledon. Dimitrov, on the other hand, has had a topsy-turvy season. He started the season very strongly, winning titles at Brisbane and Sofia, and coming very close to upsetting Nadal in a thrilling 5-set semi-final in the Australian Open. He racked up an impressive 16-1 win-loss record before his season went pear-shaped at Rotterdam. He went on to suffer a shocking loss of form in the remaining hard court season and that losing spree continued in the clay court season. From 16-1, he went 5-9 leading up to the Queen's Club Championship where he finally found some form and reached the semis. The question though, is whether he's ready for the born-again Federer. I would say, difficult given the evidence. I'm going with Federer in 4 sets.

Dominic Thiem and Tomas Berdych have met only once before. That too was a 4th round encounter, three years ago at the Flushing Meadows, when the 6th seed Berdych steamrolled the unseeded Thiem in three easy sets. Things won't be easy for the Czech this time though. Thiem, the higher seed, has been outstanding this season and although he suffered two shocking losses at Halle and Antalya and his high backlift is generally considered unsuitable for grass, the Austrian has surprised one and all with his performance in London. Berdych too hasn't had a great grass-court season falling to Feliciano Lopez in the quarters both at Queen's as well as in Stuttgart. His Grand Slam performance hasn't been up to the mark in 2017 and he hasn't yet won a title this year. This one is tough to call and most likely, the match will go the distance. Thiem has already proved that he can play on the big stage and seeing him in his first Wimbledon quarter-final shouldn't surprise anyone anymore.

The no. 2 seed and the 3-time Wimbledon champion, Novak Djokovic, faces Adrian Mannarino for the second consecutive year at Wimbledon. They met in the 2nd round last year and Nole came through in straight sets. The significance of that match isn't lost on anyone as Djokovic lost in the very next round to Sam Querrey and his career has undergone a major slump that continues till today. Mannarino has caused some upsets already this year, first overcoming a red-hot Feliciano Lopez in 4 sets in the first round, and then defeating Gael Monfils in 5 sets after being down 2 sets to 1, in the previous round. Djokovic himself has started to find his bearings and his straight-sets victory over the dangerous Gulbis in the previous round was very impressive. Does Mannarino have enough fuel in the tank to cause the 3rd and his most significant upset? I think Djokovic will find a way and should come through in 4 sets.

We are all set then for a Super Monday. It's Love All!

French Open 2017: Semi-final preview

After 12 gruelling days on the red clay of Paris, we are down to four men. Three of them are grand slam winners, two of them have won here in the past but only one of them didn't reach this stage at least once in the last two years! And no that guy isn't Dominic Thiem, but Rafael Nadal! Yet, it doesn't seem strange that a lot of experts favour Nadal in his quest for La Decima.

Given the clay-court form coming into this French Open, the line-up isn't a big surprise (see my French Open preview). The only surprise has been, ironically the world no. 1 Andy Murray, who has arrested a worrying slump in form, to make his 4th consecutive semi-final at Roland Garros. And true to form, the other three semi-finalists (Nadal, Wawrinka, Thiem) haven't even dropped a set. Given the match-ups, we have an equal probability of getting either a first-time winner or a repeat winner.

SF1: Power of Wawrinka vs. Defense of Murray

This will be a repeat of last year's semi-final where many reckon, that the Scot played his best clay-court match ever to overcome Stan in four sets and make his first French Open final. So what will it take for Murray to repeat the dose this year? Well, I would say a couple of things - for Murray to somehow regain the form he showed after his loss in the Roland Garros finals last year; and for Stan to somehow suffer a massive dip in performance levels. If it's only the former, we'll have a cracker of a match. Given the stage of the tournament, Stan will be expected to put in a power-packed performance. His form has gotten better as the tournament has progressed and his overwhelming straight-sets victory over an in-form Cilic in the quarters, was a clay-court masterclass. Importantly, Stan is playing closer to the baseline and yet, he's been able to put the same power behind his groundstrokes. Murray's form has also improved but as we saw in the quarter-finals against an erratic Nishikori, he can blow hot and cold, sometimes in the same set. I expect Wawrinka to come through in four sets.

SF2: A passing of the baton moment?

Nadal and Thiem have already met thrice on clay this season, with Nadal winning two of those three encounters. The Spaniard has put in an astounding performance at this year's open, having lost just 22 games en-route to the semis (the lowest in terms of games in his 26 grand slam semi-final runs). He's had a great season so far, having already won 3 clay-court tournaments and in the eyes of many experts, he's primed to win his 10th Roland Garros title this year. However, Thiem's best surface too is clay and his semi-final showing this year has proved that his 2016 performance was no flash in the pan. He's the only player to beat Nadal on clay in 2017 and his performance in Paris has been outstanding. He hasn't lost a set and his two bagel sets (6-0) have come against the talented Tomic in the first round (2nd set) and against Djokovic in the quarters (3rd set). In addition, he's had four breadstick sets too (6-1). His demolition of Djokovic was as breathtaking and incredible as unexpected. In Djokovic, he conquered the 2nd best clay-court player in the world (based on performance over the last 3-4 years) and his reward now is to overcome the best clay-court player ever. Can he do it? Will we witness a passing of the baton moment? I'll stick my neck out and say, yes. I believe Thiem's time has come and he'll overcome Nadal in five tight sets. In the process, taking over the mantle as the best clay courter of the next generation.