Showing posts with label Uthappa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Uthappa. Show all posts

Monday, 22 May 2017

IPL 2017: How did Pune manage runners-up?

"How did RPS not become champions of IPL 2017?" That must be the question ringing loudly in Steve Smith's ears as he packs his bags after a 3 month long-tour of India. This was his 2nd heartbreak as captain in less than two months and both came in matches where his team dominated at the outset. The fact that he topped the batting charts in the test series and was also the top run scorer amongst both IPL finalists (no. 4 overall), would be minor consolations. As the skipper of RPS, this snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory, will hurt Smith. And the brute reality of him being at the crease till the final over and esp. when the match was in RPS' control, will confound and hound him in equal measure. What played out at Hyderabad was a classic case of many a slip between the cup and the lip!

Mighty struggle for the MI batters


It all looked very different at the halfway stage, of course. RPS had put in a brilliant bowling display and restricted MI to a manageable 129. In fact, even 129 looked difficult at the 15 over stage. Rohit Sharma won the toss and, in keeping with the tradition in IPL finals, chose to bat first (my previous blog covering this). Unadkat continued his rich vein of form and quickly snuffed out both the MI openers with the team score still in single digits. Rohit Sharma and the local boy, Ambati Rayudu, tried to stem the tide but the going wasn't easy. The man of the match in the previous MI-RPS encounter, off-spinner Washington Sundar, kept things very tight and didn't allow MI to get away in the powerplay. Rohit plundered four boundaries off Ferguson in the 6th over to ensure that MI reached a respectable 32/2 (given the slowish pitch) at the end of powerplay. However, as things were beginning to look slightly better for MI, disaster struck. Rayudu played a firm cover drive, off Ferguson, straight to Smith at mid-off and tried scampering for a non-existent single. He was possibly hoping that Smith would miss hitting directly but the RPS skipper hit the bulls eye, finding Rayudu well short of the crease. At 41/3, MI were hoping that the free-flowing Rohit and the in-form Krunal Pandya would put on a partnership similar to the one in the Qualifier 2 against KKR. However, they were in for a rude shock. In the 11th over, the leg-spinner Adam Zampa first got the benefit of a bigger ground at Uppal when Rohit failed to get the distance while pulling a short delivery, and holed out to deep mid-wicket. In came Kieron Pollard and he looked like he wanted to break the shackles straight away. He smote an effortless six off the first ball he faced but then fell to some tactically brilliant field placement. Possibly on advice from Dhoni, Smith placed a very straight long-off and Pollard duly obliged, hitting a flighted delivery from Zampa, straight to that fielder. Hardik Pandya didn't last long and neither did Karn Sharma. At the end of 15 overs, MI were 81/7 and in real danger of being bowled out for less than 100.

Krunal Pandya rescues MI


The one man standing between RPS and the IPL trophy, however, was the exceptionally smart and versatile, Krunal Pandya. He quickly assessed the nature of the wicket and as the last recognized batsman, decided to delay the late innings assault. Receiving good support from the experienced Mitch Johnson, Pandya demonstrated great improvisation in dealing with both, the slower ones from Unadkat, as well as the seam-up deliveries from Dan Christian. Crucially, MI plundered 37 runs off the last 3 overs and gave their bowlers 129 to defend. MI's hopes now rested on a superlative performance from their more consistent discipline this year i.e. their bowling.

Over-cautious RPS keep MI in the game


Still, given that 129 was the lowest a team had scored when batting first in an IPL final, RPS were heavy favorites going into the 2nd innings. MI needed early breakthroughs and Bumrah did just that, trapping the explosive Tripathi in front. The lanky MI bowler got slightly lucky with the decision as the ball was going just over the stumps. MI should've picked up Rahane also but Krunal Pandya dropped a sitter after Malinga had foxed the RPS opener by a brilliant slower one. Like he has done all IPL, Rohit continuously rotated his bowlers. At the 10 over mark, the game was meandering along with neither MI picking up wickets nor RPS getting ahead of the required run rate (by way of aggressive batting). However this meant that even though MI were sloppy in the field, the combination of miserly bowling and over-cautious batting from Rahane and Smith, kept MI in the game. MI believed (and rightly so) that a couple of wickets could really make this chase, tense.

In the 12th over, the game suddenly opened up. First, Johnson picked up Rahane, thanks to an exceptional catch from Pollard. The tall West Indian ran quickly from long-on and then dived forward to complete an extremely tough catch. Then, RPS decided to bring Dhoni in at no. 4. This was a deviation from their earlier strategy of batting Tiwary at 4 and Dhoni at 5. Possibly, the RPS team management felt that Dhoni would take longer to get in and an equation reading 59 off 49 was manageable with Smith still batting. However, that equation soon became 47 from 30 balls as Karn Sharma, Krunal Pandya and Malinga delivered three exceptional overs, going for just 12 runs! As the tournament's last strategic timeout came about, Dhoni was struggling with 4 from 9 balls and Smith too was scoring at less than run-a-ball (25 off 35 balls). MI was making RPS sweat for every run but with the protagonists of the successful chase from this season's first MI-RPS encounter, at the crease, RPS were still the favorites.

Last 5 overs of IPL 2017 - ebbs and flows


16th over - As Krunal Pandya got ready to bowl his final over, the experience duo of Smith and Dhoni instantly realized that they needed to attack the left-arm spinner by taking calculated risks. Off the 3rd ball, Dhoni used his fast bat speed and strong wrists to hit a vertical bat square cut, and got a welcome boundary. Then off the 5th ball, Smith played, arguably, the shot of the match. He unleashed a powerful reverse sweep and hit it well over the point boundary for a six. 14 runs came off that over, equation was brought down to 33 off 24 balls and Rohit Sharma's gamble of bowling a spinner at this stage of the innings, seemed to have backfired. Advantage RPS!

17th over - Realizing that he needed wickets as well as stem the flow of runs, the MI skipper brought on his trump card and his clutch bowler, Bumrah. Earlier in this season, Bumrah was preferred over Malinga to bowl the superover against Gujarat Lions and he successfully defended 11 against batsmen of the calibre of McCullum and Finch. He was entrusted to bring MI back in the game and he didn't disappoint. Off the 2nd ball of the over, a fast in-cutter got Dhoni slashing and edging to Parthiv Patel. In came Manoj Tiwary and almost immediately had a huge LBW shout turned down. Overall, Bumrah bowled three dot balls (including the wicket-taking delivery) and conceded a single each of the other three balls. To summarize, he brought MI right back into the match with an over of the highest quality. RPS now needed 30 from 18 balls; remember, MI got 37 runs from their last 18 balls! Slight advantage to RPS!

18th over - Malinga was entrusted with bowling the 18th over. The old Sri Lankan warhorse didn't have a great IPL but he was mostly accurate in this match. First four balls included two dots and two singles. Equation climbed up to 28 runs from 14 balls and also went up MI's chances. Then Smith produced another moment of magic - a near yorker on the leg stump was expertly dealt with (by staying deep in the crease) and whipped to the backward square leg fence for a crucial boundary. 7 runs came off Malinga's final over and the equation now read, 23 runs from 12 balls. Still advantage to RPS but MI in with a fair chance!

19th over - Rohit continued with Bumrah for the crucial 19th over. With so much riding on his young shoulders, Bumrah possibly felt the pressure and delivered a full-toss first up. Smith too, possibly nervous, couldn't take full advantage of this and nearly holed out to deep mid-wicket. The next three deliveries went for three singles (1 leg bye). At this stage, the equation read 19 off 8 balls and if Bumrah managed to concede only 2-3 runs, the last over equation would've been very tough for RPS. Instead, Smith, who was sitting very deep in his crease and hence was able to generate leverage for the just-short-of-yorker length, smacked the 5th ball for a six over long-off. The last ball was another high full-toss and yet again, Smith couldn't make a good connection (they ran two). Nevertheless, with 12 runs coming off that over, the equation was down to 11 runs off 6 balls. Big advantage to RPS with MI's chances dimmed slightly!

20th over - In the first MI-RPS encounter this season, Bumrah had delivered the 19th over and by conceding just 7 runs in that over, he left 12 runs to be defended in the final over (and Pollard couldn't defend those). Here, he had gone for 12 runs in the penultimate over and hence, left only 10 runs to defend. However, the key difference was that Rohit had one over from Johnson and hence, didn't have to go to any non-regular bowler. With Tiwary on strike, Johnson bowled the first delivery from over the wicket and his slower one was dispatched for a boundary. Now, just 7 runs were needed off 5 balls - looked like all over for MI! Johnson switched sides and Tiwary, looking for a big hit, got the inside half of the bat (off another slow off-cutter) and his lofted drive landed safely into the big hands of Pollard at long-on. However, importantly for RPS, the batsmen had switched ends as the catch was being taken and hence, with 7 needed off 4 balls, it was Smith on strike. The time for the knockout punch was now or never! Johnson delivered a seam-up delivery just outside off and Smith hit an amazing lofted square drive. The connection was very good and the ball was headed for 6 but it was also headed in the direction of the only outfielder on the off-side, Ambati Rayudu. Rayudu positioned at sweeper cover, plucked out a very good catch since the ball was travelling flat and quick. In fact, a few inches on either side, would've meant a 6 thereby almost finishing off MI's chances. This was a crucial wicket for MI - two wickets in two balls also meant that there were two dot balls. The equation had become a more difficult 7 off 3. And the batsmen couldn't cross in time and hence, instead of Dan Christian, it was Sundar on strike. The batsmen stole a bye on the hattrick ball and it was now in the hands of Christian. 6 needed off 2 and Christian got a length ball on the leg stump but the burly all-rounder couldn't deposit it for a boundary or six. Hardik Pandya dropped a tough chance at deep mid-wicket and the fumble allowed a couple. So it was down to 4 runs off the final ball! Two Aussies faced up to each other with the Indian Premier League trophy on the line! Johnson bowled another quick ball on the leg stump, Christian could only manage to get it to the substitute fielder (Suchith) at deep square leg. Suchith made a nervy stop, possibly aware of the boundary rope behind him, and even fumbled when making the throw. However, his throw was accurate enough and as the RPS batsmen attempted the third, Parthiv Patel effected the run out and MI won the match and hence IPL 2017, by a solitary run! It was an exhilarating performance by MI and they won a match in which, at the innings break, nobody gave them a chance.

Conclusion


This victory was made possible due to excellent all-round bowling performance by MI and over-cautious approach by the RPS batsmen. It was sweet revenge for Rohit and his men and in many ways, this match was a microcosm of all the previous MI-RPS encounters this season. Similar to the first match, it was MI batting first and Smith and Rahane batting well for RPS. In that match too, Smith took the chase to the last over. Also had commonality with the 2nd match; the chasing team botched up a chase which was under their control for most parts. In that game it was MI's skipper Rohit who batted well and brought his team close before falling in the last over, thereby failing to take the team over the finishing line. And Krunal Pandya's late innings (and match winning) assault in this match was very similar to Dhoni's in their last match, both in terms of nature and impact. 

The IPL rules are set for an overhaul this year and, given that CSK and RR will make a comeback next year, a lot of things are likely to change. The first decade of IPL is nicely bookended by two similar last ball finishes. What better advertisement for the edge-of-the-seat thrill that IPL promises!

Sunday, 30 April 2017

IPL 2017: If April was hot, May will be hotter!

A sprint is comprised of three broad phases - drive, maximum velocity, maintenance. During the drive phase, the sprinter begins in a crouched position as he bursts from a dead still position into a sprint, and strives to make use of his entire body. In the maximum velocity phase, the sprinter is in a fully erect position and achieves top speed. Lastly, in the maintenance phase, the sprinter's goal is to minimize deceleration, as he cannot maintain top speed for the entire race. 

Sprint is an apt comparison with the freneticism that IPL represents. And like in a sprint, we've seen various IPL editions go through similar phases. Some teams, like a standard sprinter, start in the best possible manner, making best use of available resources, and try to gain maximum momentum for the latter half of the tournament. Others, like Usain Bolt, start slowly but continue to build momentum as they move to the knockout stage. Every IPL has thrown up both kinds. 

For example, at the halfway stage in IPL 2016, neither of the finalists (SRH and RCB) were in the top four. In fact, the runners-up RCB were languishing at the 7th spot. They then made a strong surge, finished in the top two at the end of the league stage and eventually made the finals. On the other hand, there were the table toppers Gujarat Lions, who figured in the top 2 almost throughout the league stage but failed to make the finals. Similarly, in the 2015 edition, Mumbai Indians, having endured another poor start, were placed 7th halfway through the tournament. Like RCB in 2016, MI too made a strong surge towards the end, finishing in the top two and eventually did one better than RCB, by winning the 2015 edition. Meanwhile, the table toppers, Chennai Super Kings, were in the top two throughout the league phase and eventually made the finals.

Nearly 60% of league matches of IPL 2017 are done and dusted. By now, the well prepared teams have settled into their winning combination while the not-so-well-prepared ones are running helter skelter to find one. Or, in sprint terminology, the drive phase is over and we are in the midst of the maximum velocity phase. The points table, which was previously getting overhauled after each match, is now seeing marginal adjustments. Hence, this is a good time to take a look at those aspects, that make up the team combinations, and have impacted the league standings so far. Basically, we look at the following:

  • Batting - opening combinations
  • Batting strategy
  • Bowling strategy
  • Performance of all-rounder
  • Performance of wicket-keeper

How are the teams stacked up?


A cursory glance at the points table at different stages during the 2017 edition (see below), will reveal how certain teams have maintained consistently strong performances, certain others have made a comeback of sorts and the remaining few have slipped. 

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com


While Mumbai Indians (MI), Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) have remained in the top 4 throughout, Kings XI Punjab (KXIP) has slipped after a good start. Rising Pune Supergiant (RPS), which has won 4 out of their last 5 matches, is now making a strong surge. So is Gujarat Lions (GL), which seems to be finally getting its act together, with key players back in form. Delhi Daredevils (DD), despite boasting of the strongest pace bowling attack and after getting off to a good start, hasn't got its batting strategy right and this has cost them a place in the top 5. Lastly, Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) has mostly not turned up, barring a rare good performance - RCB has consistently hugged the bottom of the table.

For the purpose of the analyses below, I've divided the teams into three categories based on their performances so far (all analyses below is upto Match no. 33, featuring KXIP vs. SRH on 28th April 2017):

  • Leaders - Teams with more than 50% wins and +ve NRR; MI, KKR and SRH
  • Laggards - Teams with 40-50% wins or -ve NRR; RPS
  • Also-rans - Teams with less than 40% wins; GL, KXIPDD and RCB

Opening batting combination


One of the most crucial aspects of a strong batting lineup, esp. in a T20 match, is whether the opening combination is settled or not. Successful teams typically have:

  • A stable opening pair
  • Opening pair regularly gets a partnership of 30+ runs 
  • As a result, the team manages to score 50+ in the powerplay without losing more than 2 wickets.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

MI and SRH have stuck to the same opening pair for all their matches, and they've got 30+ run partnerships on 5 occasions each. While MI has scored 53 runs on an average in the powerplays (losing 2 wickets), SRH has managed only 46 runs (losing only 1 wicket). This go slow approach by SRH seemed deliberate in the first few matches, as the normally aggressive Warner assumed the role of a sheet anchor and SRH had their hitters in Henriques, Hooda and Yuvraj following immediately after the openers. This has changed in the last few matches as they've got Williamson at no. 3, allowing both Warner and Dhawan to bat a little more aggressively.

KKR meanwhile has adopted a different strategy. With Gambhir anchoring the innings, they've given the license to the other opener to go for broke from ball 1. They started their campaign with the big-hitting Chris Lynn but once Lynn was injured, they promoted Sunil Narine up the order, and the Trinidadian has delivered big time for his team (141 runs at a strike rate of 178). KKR too has a settled opening pair now, with Gambhir and Narine opening together in the last 6 matches.

RPS has used 3 openers and their powerplay numbers are more impressive than both MI and SRH. They've got an opening partnership in excess of 30 on four occasions and their average score after powerplays is 53 (losing 1 wicket in the process). While RPS first tried Mayank Agarwal alongside Rahane, they've now settled for Rahul Tripathi instead of Agarwal. Tripathi has been one of the finds of the tournament scoring 216 runs at a strike rate of 154+, so far.

GL has tried a horses for courses approach, with McCullum as a fixture at one end and experimentation with four other openers at the other. They started with Jason Roy, then moved to Dwayne Smith, had Finch open on a couple of occasions when Smith was struggling against spinners, and then, in the last match against RCB, they sent in the left-handed Ishan Kishan to counter the threat of two leg-spinners in the RCB lineup. Finch has been used as a floater while Smith has now been moved to lower middle order. GL's run rate seems to be impressive but they are still yearning for consistency at the top.

On the other hand, KXIP has a settled opening pair in Amla and Manan Vohra with Shaun Marsh tried for one match, when Vohra was injured and Guptill tried once, when Amla was injured.

Neither of the bottom two teams have a settled opening pair. DD have tried four combinations with four openers (Samson, Billings, Tare and Karun Nair) and the opening wicket still averages only 29. Lastly, the star-studded RCB hasn't got their opening pair right, having looked at 5 different openers and 5 different opening combinations in their 8 matches! Obviously, Virat Kohli's injury hampered their opening strategy but even though he's back, RCB isn't sure whether Gayle fits into their overall scheme of things. The result has been just three partnerships of 30+ runs and an average PP score of 40. It's probably fair to say that the also-rans group has been hampered due to instability or consistency at the top.

Batting strategy


Let's now take a look at the batting strategy adopted by various teams. For this purpose, I've divided the innings into the following three phases:
  1. Powerplay overs - Overs 1 to 6
  2. Middle overs - Overs 7 to 16
  3. Slog/end overs - Overs 17 to 20

I've then looked at the average run rates of teams during these phases to understand the strategy adopted by the various teams. Looking at the phase-wise run-rates:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

From the above charts, I believe it's more relevant to look at the first innings chart (for this purpose) since the run-rates while batting 2nd are driven by the target being chased. We can clearly witness the following two types of batting strategies from the above chart (first innings):
  1. Start briskly, consolidate in the middle overs and then explode at the death - strategy followed by MI, KKR, RPS, DD and GL.
  2. Start slowly, increase the run rate in the middle overs and continue to maximize run-scoring towards the death - strategy adopted by SRH, KXIP and RCB
The above strategy becomes evident if one looks at the batting orders of the respective teams.

Bowling combination


How about bowling combinations? While T20 started out as a batsman's game with bowlers playing supporting characters, over time this has changed. Champion T20 teams of today have very strong bowling line-ups and the captains generally have 6-7 bowling options. Let's look at the bowling combinations (pace and spin) that the teams have used so far in the 2017 edition.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

From the above charts, it's very clear that KKR and RCB have relied on spin much more (~45% of total balls bowled) than the pace-heavy line-ups of DD (25%), MI (31%) and SRH (33%). KKR has played Kuldeep Yadav and Sunil Narine in almost all matches and got them to bowl their full quota; plus, they've also played Piyush Chawla and Shakib Al Hasan occasionally. RCB too has relied heavily on the spin of Chahal, Negi and Badree.

On the other hand, DD has mainly played four fast bowlers (Morris, Cummins, Zaheer and now Rabada) and after playing Nadeem alongside Mishra for the first three matches, is now solely relying on Mishra as the spin option. MI too has utilized Harbhajan as the main spinner with the all-rounder Krunal Pandya playing the supporting role on a few occasions. On the other hand, SRH has completely relied on the Afghan star, Rashid Khan, as their sole spinning option (except for a couple of matches).

One look at the economy rate comparison between pace and spin (chart below) tells us that teams should look to utilize spinners a little more.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Even when comparing bowling averages or strike rates, spinners don't suffer in comparison to the pacers.

Lastly, we also look at the no. of bowlers that various teams have tried (pace and spin), subject to certain minimum criteria. One would notice that the top teams generally have a settled line-up.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

Performance of all-rounders


In order to make up for one or two bowlers having a bad day (or a bad match-up against a particular batsman who's in devastating form), most IPL captains increasingly prefer at least 6 bowlers in the line-up. This makes the role of all-rounders crucial. And these all-rounders typically contribute by scoring runs briskly and keeping the runs down while bowling (economy rates are as useful as wickets in a T20 match). I've taken a look at all-rounders across various IPL teams, applied criteria of at least 50 runs scored while batting and at least 4 overs bowled. Then I've compared the batting strike rate with the economy rate (per 100 balls) and taken the difference between the two (calling this All-Rounders' Index). Eliminating the negative ARIs i.e. where batting strike rate is less than bowling economy rate, this is what we get:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

Sunil Narine with an ARI of +67.5 is very much the standout amongst the all-rounders and is one of the primary reasons why KKR is on top of the points table. For MI, the Pandya brothers have provided incredible balance to the side. Ben Stokes has been the talisman for RPS (as was amply on display in the MI-RPS match at Wankhede). Similarly, DD's fortunes have fluctuated with the rise and fall of Chris Morris' form. In the initial stages he set the tournament on fire, bowling with pace and taking wickets upfront, and providing the late burst while batting. This enabled DD to get off to a good start but as Morris' form has dipped, so have DD's performances. Needless to say, a good all-rounder is critical to his team's fortunes.

Wicket-keepers - key to team balance 


What about wicket-keepers, I hear many of you ask! In modern cricketing terminology, a wicket-keeper, if also a capable batsman, is considered as an all-rounder. And team managements clearly demand that wicket-keepers contribute handsomely with the bat. For almost all IPL teams (except SRH), the wicket-keeper is also a key batsman - either playing in the top order (Uthappa, Parthiv, Jadhav) or coming at the back end to get some quick runs (Dhoni, Karthik, Saha and Pant). So, it's imperative that we look at their performances from a team composition perspective. For the following analysis, I've devised a composite batting metric (called batting index) that combines the run per innings (RPI; not the average) and strike rate per 100 balls. It's a product of the two parameters; so basically, if a batsman scores 40 runs in an innings at a strike rate of 90, the batter's performance is penalized as the batting index works out to 36 (40 x 0.9). Conversely, if he scored the same number of runs at a strike rate of 125, the batting index works out to a significantly better 50.  

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

From a batting perspective, Robin Uthappa has been the most outstanding performer with a batting index of 69.5 - far ahead of the competition. This too has enabled KKR to remain the front-runners in the current edition. Other notable performers include Jadhav and Karthik.


Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

The primary job of a keeper, however, is keeping wickets. For analyzing the keeping performance, we take a look at dismissals per innings as well as extras conceded per innings (byes which are attributable to the keeper). Here, it's the Indian test wicket-keepers (present or past) who've been especially tidy - look at the extras / innings for Parthiv, Dhoni, Karthik and Saha. In terms of dismissals / innings, Uthappa and Pant stand out, but a lot of that has to do with the type and quality of bowling line-ups that their respective teams possess.

Conclusion


In a 100 mtr sprint, most runners achieve top speed around the 60 mtr mark and they try to maintain this speed till the 80 mtr mark. It can be argued that KKR, MI and SRH are fast approaching that stage. They've ticked most of the boxes - stable opening pair in line with the batting strategy, bowlers performing their assigned roles, key all-rounder(s) identified and wicket-keeper contributing both behind, as well as, in-front of the stumps. The focus will remain on making the play-offs and possibly finishing in the top 2 (thereby securing two chances to qualify for the finals). 

On the other hand, the laggards will look to play catch up and possibly go for an all-out attack. Expect them to be more ruthless with their selections in the coming matches. They'll be less reliant on strategy, more on scrapping. And also, hopeful to do a Usain Bolt. The 8-time Olympic gold medalist is a renowned slow-starter who hits the highest velocity in the 60-80 mtr phase and then maintains this speed almost till the finishing line. Not a bad example to emulate!