Showing posts with label Maxwell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maxwell. Show all posts

Monday, 22 May 2017

IPL 2017: How did Pune manage runners-up?

"How did RPS not become champions of IPL 2017?" That must be the question ringing loudly in Steve Smith's ears as he packs his bags after a 3 month long-tour of India. This was his 2nd heartbreak as captain in less than two months and both came in matches where his team dominated at the outset. The fact that he topped the batting charts in the test series and was also the top run scorer amongst both IPL finalists (no. 4 overall), would be minor consolations. As the skipper of RPS, this snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory, will hurt Smith. And the brute reality of him being at the crease till the final over and esp. when the match was in RPS' control, will confound and hound him in equal measure. What played out at Hyderabad was a classic case of many a slip between the cup and the lip!

Mighty struggle for the MI batters


It all looked very different at the halfway stage, of course. RPS had put in a brilliant bowling display and restricted MI to a manageable 129. In fact, even 129 looked difficult at the 15 over stage. Rohit Sharma won the toss and, in keeping with the tradition in IPL finals, chose to bat first (my previous blog covering this). Unadkat continued his rich vein of form and quickly snuffed out both the MI openers with the team score still in single digits. Rohit Sharma and the local boy, Ambati Rayudu, tried to stem the tide but the going wasn't easy. The man of the match in the previous MI-RPS encounter, off-spinner Washington Sundar, kept things very tight and didn't allow MI to get away in the powerplay. Rohit plundered four boundaries off Ferguson in the 6th over to ensure that MI reached a respectable 32/2 (given the slowish pitch) at the end of powerplay. However, as things were beginning to look slightly better for MI, disaster struck. Rayudu played a firm cover drive, off Ferguson, straight to Smith at mid-off and tried scampering for a non-existent single. He was possibly hoping that Smith would miss hitting directly but the RPS skipper hit the bulls eye, finding Rayudu well short of the crease. At 41/3, MI were hoping that the free-flowing Rohit and the in-form Krunal Pandya would put on a partnership similar to the one in the Qualifier 2 against KKR. However, they were in for a rude shock. In the 11th over, the leg-spinner Adam Zampa first got the benefit of a bigger ground at Uppal when Rohit failed to get the distance while pulling a short delivery, and holed out to deep mid-wicket. In came Kieron Pollard and he looked like he wanted to break the shackles straight away. He smote an effortless six off the first ball he faced but then fell to some tactically brilliant field placement. Possibly on advice from Dhoni, Smith placed a very straight long-off and Pollard duly obliged, hitting a flighted delivery from Zampa, straight to that fielder. Hardik Pandya didn't last long and neither did Karn Sharma. At the end of 15 overs, MI were 81/7 and in real danger of being bowled out for less than 100.

Krunal Pandya rescues MI


The one man standing between RPS and the IPL trophy, however, was the exceptionally smart and versatile, Krunal Pandya. He quickly assessed the nature of the wicket and as the last recognized batsman, decided to delay the late innings assault. Receiving good support from the experienced Mitch Johnson, Pandya demonstrated great improvisation in dealing with both, the slower ones from Unadkat, as well as the seam-up deliveries from Dan Christian. Crucially, MI plundered 37 runs off the last 3 overs and gave their bowlers 129 to defend. MI's hopes now rested on a superlative performance from their more consistent discipline this year i.e. their bowling.

Over-cautious RPS keep MI in the game


Still, given that 129 was the lowest a team had scored when batting first in an IPL final, RPS were heavy favorites going into the 2nd innings. MI needed early breakthroughs and Bumrah did just that, trapping the explosive Tripathi in front. The lanky MI bowler got slightly lucky with the decision as the ball was going just over the stumps. MI should've picked up Rahane also but Krunal Pandya dropped a sitter after Malinga had foxed the RPS opener by a brilliant slower one. Like he has done all IPL, Rohit continuously rotated his bowlers. At the 10 over mark, the game was meandering along with neither MI picking up wickets nor RPS getting ahead of the required run rate (by way of aggressive batting). However this meant that even though MI were sloppy in the field, the combination of miserly bowling and over-cautious batting from Rahane and Smith, kept MI in the game. MI believed (and rightly so) that a couple of wickets could really make this chase, tense.

In the 12th over, the game suddenly opened up. First, Johnson picked up Rahane, thanks to an exceptional catch from Pollard. The tall West Indian ran quickly from long-on and then dived forward to complete an extremely tough catch. Then, RPS decided to bring Dhoni in at no. 4. This was a deviation from their earlier strategy of batting Tiwary at 4 and Dhoni at 5. Possibly, the RPS team management felt that Dhoni would take longer to get in and an equation reading 59 off 49 was manageable with Smith still batting. However, that equation soon became 47 from 30 balls as Karn Sharma, Krunal Pandya and Malinga delivered three exceptional overs, going for just 12 runs! As the tournament's last strategic timeout came about, Dhoni was struggling with 4 from 9 balls and Smith too was scoring at less than run-a-ball (25 off 35 balls). MI was making RPS sweat for every run but with the protagonists of the successful chase from this season's first MI-RPS encounter, at the crease, RPS were still the favorites.

Last 5 overs of IPL 2017 - ebbs and flows


16th over - As Krunal Pandya got ready to bowl his final over, the experience duo of Smith and Dhoni instantly realized that they needed to attack the left-arm spinner by taking calculated risks. Off the 3rd ball, Dhoni used his fast bat speed and strong wrists to hit a vertical bat square cut, and got a welcome boundary. Then off the 5th ball, Smith played, arguably, the shot of the match. He unleashed a powerful reverse sweep and hit it well over the point boundary for a six. 14 runs came off that over, equation was brought down to 33 off 24 balls and Rohit Sharma's gamble of bowling a spinner at this stage of the innings, seemed to have backfired. Advantage RPS!

17th over - Realizing that he needed wickets as well as stem the flow of runs, the MI skipper brought on his trump card and his clutch bowler, Bumrah. Earlier in this season, Bumrah was preferred over Malinga to bowl the superover against Gujarat Lions and he successfully defended 11 against batsmen of the calibre of McCullum and Finch. He was entrusted to bring MI back in the game and he didn't disappoint. Off the 2nd ball of the over, a fast in-cutter got Dhoni slashing and edging to Parthiv Patel. In came Manoj Tiwary and almost immediately had a huge LBW shout turned down. Overall, Bumrah bowled three dot balls (including the wicket-taking delivery) and conceded a single each of the other three balls. To summarize, he brought MI right back into the match with an over of the highest quality. RPS now needed 30 from 18 balls; remember, MI got 37 runs from their last 18 balls! Slight advantage to RPS!

18th over - Malinga was entrusted with bowling the 18th over. The old Sri Lankan warhorse didn't have a great IPL but he was mostly accurate in this match. First four balls included two dots and two singles. Equation climbed up to 28 runs from 14 balls and also went up MI's chances. Then Smith produced another moment of magic - a near yorker on the leg stump was expertly dealt with (by staying deep in the crease) and whipped to the backward square leg fence for a crucial boundary. 7 runs came off Malinga's final over and the equation now read, 23 runs from 12 balls. Still advantage to RPS but MI in with a fair chance!

19th over - Rohit continued with Bumrah for the crucial 19th over. With so much riding on his young shoulders, Bumrah possibly felt the pressure and delivered a full-toss first up. Smith too, possibly nervous, couldn't take full advantage of this and nearly holed out to deep mid-wicket. The next three deliveries went for three singles (1 leg bye). At this stage, the equation read 19 off 8 balls and if Bumrah managed to concede only 2-3 runs, the last over equation would've been very tough for RPS. Instead, Smith, who was sitting very deep in his crease and hence was able to generate leverage for the just-short-of-yorker length, smacked the 5th ball for a six over long-off. The last ball was another high full-toss and yet again, Smith couldn't make a good connection (they ran two). Nevertheless, with 12 runs coming off that over, the equation was down to 11 runs off 6 balls. Big advantage to RPS with MI's chances dimmed slightly!

20th over - In the first MI-RPS encounter this season, Bumrah had delivered the 19th over and by conceding just 7 runs in that over, he left 12 runs to be defended in the final over (and Pollard couldn't defend those). Here, he had gone for 12 runs in the penultimate over and hence, left only 10 runs to defend. However, the key difference was that Rohit had one over from Johnson and hence, didn't have to go to any non-regular bowler. With Tiwary on strike, Johnson bowled the first delivery from over the wicket and his slower one was dispatched for a boundary. Now, just 7 runs were needed off 5 balls - looked like all over for MI! Johnson switched sides and Tiwary, looking for a big hit, got the inside half of the bat (off another slow off-cutter) and his lofted drive landed safely into the big hands of Pollard at long-on. However, importantly for RPS, the batsmen had switched ends as the catch was being taken and hence, with 7 needed off 4 balls, it was Smith on strike. The time for the knockout punch was now or never! Johnson delivered a seam-up delivery just outside off and Smith hit an amazing lofted square drive. The connection was very good and the ball was headed for 6 but it was also headed in the direction of the only outfielder on the off-side, Ambati Rayudu. Rayudu positioned at sweeper cover, plucked out a very good catch since the ball was travelling flat and quick. In fact, a few inches on either side, would've meant a 6 thereby almost finishing off MI's chances. This was a crucial wicket for MI - two wickets in two balls also meant that there were two dot balls. The equation had become a more difficult 7 off 3. And the batsmen couldn't cross in time and hence, instead of Dan Christian, it was Sundar on strike. The batsmen stole a bye on the hattrick ball and it was now in the hands of Christian. 6 needed off 2 and Christian got a length ball on the leg stump but the burly all-rounder couldn't deposit it for a boundary or six. Hardik Pandya dropped a tough chance at deep mid-wicket and the fumble allowed a couple. So it was down to 4 runs off the final ball! Two Aussies faced up to each other with the Indian Premier League trophy on the line! Johnson bowled another quick ball on the leg stump, Christian could only manage to get it to the substitute fielder (Suchith) at deep square leg. Suchith made a nervy stop, possibly aware of the boundary rope behind him, and even fumbled when making the throw. However, his throw was accurate enough and as the RPS batsmen attempted the third, Parthiv Patel effected the run out and MI won the match and hence IPL 2017, by a solitary run! It was an exhilarating performance by MI and they won a match in which, at the innings break, nobody gave them a chance.

Conclusion


This victory was made possible due to excellent all-round bowling performance by MI and over-cautious approach by the RPS batsmen. It was sweet revenge for Rohit and his men and in many ways, this match was a microcosm of all the previous MI-RPS encounters this season. Similar to the first match, it was MI batting first and Smith and Rahane batting well for RPS. In that match too, Smith took the chase to the last over. Also had commonality with the 2nd match; the chasing team botched up a chase which was under their control for most parts. In that game it was MI's skipper Rohit who batted well and brought his team close before falling in the last over, thereby failing to take the team over the finishing line. And Krunal Pandya's late innings (and match winning) assault in this match was very similar to Dhoni's in their last match, both in terms of nature and impact. 

The IPL rules are set for an overhaul this year and, given that CSK and RR will make a comeback next year, a lot of things are likely to change. The first decade of IPL is nicely bookended by two similar last ball finishes. What better advertisement for the edge-of-the-seat thrill that IPL promises!

Sunday, 21 May 2017

IPL 2017 final: Who'll make history?

The 3rd Sunday of May will see two-time champions, Mumbai Indians (MI), attempting to do what they haven't achieved since the 1st Sunday of May last year. It was on 1st May 2016 that MI overcame Rising Pune Supergiants (RPS) at Pune and avenged their defeat earlier that season. In the 2017 season, MI and RPS have squared off thrice and on each of those occasions, RPS has defeated MI, with the last victory being the most comprehensive. So, in the finals of IPL 2017, Rohit Sharma and his men would be desperate for revenge.

RPS the bogey team for MI


MI has a 1-4 losing match record against RPS (0-3 this season). A review of MI's 2017 season reveals that they've had their fair share of close matches. But while they've clinched close victories against other opposition, the 2015 champions have come up short against their Maharashtra brethren. In each of those matches, MI has held an upper hand, only for a couple of outstanding individual performances winning the day for RPS. 

In their first match this season, first it was Tahir who put the brakes on MI after they had got off to a fantastic start. Even though lusty hitting in the final overs from Pollard and Hardik Pandya ensured that MI put up a challenging 184, they were undone by Rahane at the top (his best performance of this season; highest score at the best strike rate) and then, when MI seamers threatened to get their team over the line, they were again trumped by Smith who had to hit 2 sixes in the final over to ensure that RPS won with a ball to spare. 

In their second encounter (my blog on that match), Rahane again played a decent hand and combined nicely with Tripathi for the first wicket, to ensure that, despite the middle order wobble, RPS finished with a respectable (albeit, slightly below par) 160. MI openers got off to another good start before Stokes and then the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) brought RPS back into it. Rohit then steadied the ship, played an outstanding innings and was combining well with Pollard when Tahir struck. That proved to be a crucial blow, and Stokes and then Unadkat produced some outstanding death-over bowling to take RPS home by a mere 3 runs! Stokes, especially, was sensational - bowling with pace and hostility, and fielding with verve & vigour. He was duly adjudged the man of the match.

By virtue of being table toppers, MI and RPS clashed again in the first qualifier at Wankhede. RPS batted first and despite Rahane playing well again, all MI bowlers had the wood on the RPS batters till the 18th over. Then Dhoni produced 10 minutes of magic, helping plunder 41 runs off the final two overs and getting RPS to another defendable score of 162. MI again got off to a decent start before two unlucky dismissals combined with outstanding spin bowling from Sundar made MI sweat in the heat of Mumbai and they ultimately fell short by 20 runs. This was a very comprehensive victory and esp. sweet, given that both Stokes and Tahir had left for national duties.

Why the RPS conundrum for MI?


Rahane loves MI bowlers


This season, the Mumbai-lad Ajinkya Rahane has scored 154 runs in 3 matches against MI at a strike rate of 141. This is in sharp contrast to 184 runs in 12 matches (strike rate of 105), against all the other teams. That two of those matches against MI have come at Wankhede, hasn't helped the 2015 IPL champions. Rahane, clearly wants his home city franchise to pay, for not sticking with him!

RPS bowlers' ability to take wickets and choke run scoring


Against RPS, MI has lost 25 wickets in 3 matches (8.3 wickets per match); this again is in sharp contrast to 72 wickets lost in 13 matches against other teams (5.5 wickets per match). That ratio becomes even more skewed when one looks at the numbers when MI chase. Against RPS, MI has lost 17 wickets in 2 matches when chasing (8.5 wickets per match) while the same stat against other teams is 49 wickets in 9 matches (5.4 wickets per match). Both the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) as well as the seamers (Unadkat and Stokes) have picked up wickets at regular intervals, thereby either denying MI any upper hand or sucking out the momentum whenever MI was able to build a partnership. 

In IPL 2017, between overs 7 and 15, RPS bowlers have bowled most dot balls (321), taken most wickets (41) at the lowest economy rate (7.16) - this is clearly a stat that stands out. 

Performance of the big players


In all three matches against MI, one of the star players for RPS has stood up and helped the 2-year old franchise cross the finishing line. It was Steve Smith in the first match, Ben Stokes in the 2nd and the redoubtable Dhoni in the 3rd. Contrast this to the performance of MI's big players (Rohit Sharma, Pollard, Mitch McClenaghan). Pollard sparkled briefly with the bat in the first match but then went for 30 runs in 1.5 overs while bowling (towards the end when other bowlers went for 43 in 5 overs @8.6 RPO) and couldn't defend 13 runs off the final over. Rohit failed in the first match but was sublime in the 2nd. He had scored 58 runs off 38 balls before he fell in the final over and hence couldn't take his team over the line. In the 3rd encounter, when at 121/3 after 18 overs, RPS was staring at a less-than-150 total, McClenaghan went for 26 runs off the crucial 19th over and handed back the momentum to RPS. Each time, at the crunch moments, while RPS' star players delivered, MI's star players flattered to deceive.

What do the performance charts reveal?


There are only two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 15 run-getters this season; Parthiv and Pollard for MI, Smith and Tripathi for RPS. Amongst these, only Smith features in the top 5 (at no. 5) while MI's top run-getter, Parthiv is at no. 8. However, both teams have been served well by consistent performances from multiple batsmen - they have more batsmen scoring 150+ runs in the tournament than both SRH and KKR. Hence, unlike SRH or KKR, the finalists haven't been dependent on 1 or 2 batsmen.  

In the bowling charts, however, there are two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 5 wicket-takers; McClenaghan and Bumrah for MI, Unadkat and Tahir for RPS. In terms of economy rates, for bowlers who've bowled a minimum of 20 overs, one bowler each from MI and RPS figure in the top 5 (incidentally both offies - Harbhajan for MI; Sundar for RPS). Likewise, in the top 15, there are four bowlers each from MI and RPS (much higher than all other teams). 

It's fair to say that both the finalists boast of a bowling attack, that is frugal as well as penetrative while their batting lineups aren't dependent on 1 or 2 key players.

How can MI secure their 3rd IPL title?


Win toss, bat first


In the 2017 edition, both RPS and MI have a similar record in terms of win ratios when batting 2nd vis-a-vis batting 1st. When defending a target, MI has won 3 out of 5 matches (60% win ratio) and RPS has won 5 out of 8 matches (62.5% win ratio). On the other hand, when chasing a target, MI has won 8 out of 11 matches (72.7%) and RPS has won 5 out of 7 matches (71.4%). Hence, conventional logic would suggest that the team which wins the toss will elect to chase. However, one look at IPL finals over the years reveal, that in the high-pressure situation of the title match, teams have been more successful when defending - out of 9 nine previous editions, 6 titles have been won by the team which batted first in the finals. IPL finals have produced high scores (4 times, a 200+ target was set, including in each of the previous three years) and the teams that've won when batting first, have mostly sailed to comfortable victories. On the other hand, teams chasing have always had it close and the most comfortable victory (by KKR in 2014) came with just 3 balls to spare!

Counter the spinner threat


Washington Sundar was very effective in the Qualifier 1, taking 3 top order wickets of MI, and RPS will most likely use him again upfront. Throwing in an aggressive, tall left-hander (Krunal Pandya or, even Mitch McClenaghan) may work for MI. Even though Sundar is an offie, he doesn't spin the ball a long way, mainly relies on off-breaks and bowls on the middle-stump line. Hence, a lefty's slog / conventional sweep as well as inside out shot over covers (whenever there's spin) would be a safe and a very effective way of nullifying the Sundar-threat. The other spinner who's caused a bit of strife i.e. Imran Tahir won't play, and that should work out as an advantage for MI.

Counter the slower ones from the seamers


The RPS seamers have bowled many varieties of slower ones, esp. in the last 5 overs, and that has kept the MI power hitters (Pollard, Hardik Pandya) in check. Both Pollard and Hardik prefer hitting down the ground, without moving too much in their crease, and such attempts haven't been effective against the slower ones / knuckle balls that are bowled just short of good length. MI need an innovative striker who can also play the ramp shots, paddle sweeps, late cuts etc. Hence, the role of Ambati Rayudu becomes very crucial. He should ideally come in at no. 4 and should look to bat till the end.

Bowling combination


Leg spinners and left-arm spinners have been very successful against the predominantly right-handed batting line up of RPS. This was possibly the reason why MI chose to drop their most economical bowler, Harbhajan Singh, in the previous match and played both Karn Sharma as well as Krunal Pandya. I believe, MI will continue with this strategy for the title clash. McClenaghan, who didn't play in the Qualifier 2 against KKR due to injury, will also likely sit out. In case, he replaces Johnson, ideally Rohit would like to use him up by the 15th over. The last four overs should be shared between Bumrah, Hardik Pandya and, unless Dhoni is on the crease, Malinga. These bowlers generally deploy a judicious mix of slower ones (at different lengths) and yorkers and it's that ability to keep the batsmen guessing which is most effective, esp. when batsmen are looking to score off every ball. 

Conclusion


Both the finalists of the first IPL (2008) were banned for two years in 2015, and one of the finalists of 2017 (RPS) may not play next year. RPS would want to finish on a high by winning the tournament and thereby, making a strong case for inclusion next year (IPL rules are likely to be overhauled for the next edition). And MI, which had a very poor initiation in IPL - having finished outside top 4 in the first two editions (no. 5 in 2008, no. 7 in 2009) - recently became the only team with 100+ T20 wins. Since 2009, MI has finished in the top four in 7 out of IPL 8 editions (including four times in the top two). They would want to cap off the first decade of IPL by winning their third title and sealing the bragging rights as the most successful IPL team. Individually, Rohit Sharma is going for his 4th IPL title (won 2 with MI and 1 with Deccan Chargers) while Dhoni will be looking to win his 3rd (won 2 with CSK). If this title clash can match the drama and excitement of the 2008 final, the fans would've got their money's worth. Let's play!  

  






Tuesday, 28 March 2017

Classy India overcome tenacious Australia

In the end, India's all-round class proved too much for Australia. Till Day 2 in Dharamsala, Australia competed on equal terms, never let India run away and put enough pressure through their tenacity and resolve. This was best exemplified by their bowling performance on Day 2 - didn't allow India to score quickly, and picked up crucial wickets in the top and middle order. Then, on Day 3, it all came apart. Almost as if, the Aussie dam made up of resolve & grit couldn't hold up any more as India's superior class burst through.

Match recap


Australia won a very important toss and elected to bat. While Smith's men were unchanged from the last match (see my blog on Ranchi test), India made two changes. With Kohli injured, India chose to hand a debut to "chinaman bowler", Kuldeep Yadav. Further, given the likelihood that the ball would swing, India opted to replace Ishant Sharma with Bhuvneshwar Kumar. The changes meant that India went into the series decider with five bowlers i.e. a batsman short. 

Australia 1st innings


Bhuvneshwar Kumar started to swing the new ball immediately and could've had Warner off the first ball, but Karun Nair dropped a slightly tough chance at 3rd slip. Umesh got Renshaw with a beauty in his first over, but then Smith and Warner launched a very aggressive partnership. Smith especially looked in sublime form and punished both the seamers. The spin duo of Ashwin and Jadeja put some brakes on the run-rate but both Smith and Warner looked largely untroubled as Australia galloped to 131-1 at lunch. The match completely turned in the post-lunch session. The Indian captain, Rahane, continued with Kuldeep Yadav after lunch (he was introduced just before lunch) and the debutante's left-arm chinaman completely bamboozled the Australian middle-order. He first took out Warner with a flipper (caught at slip), then foxed Handscomb by a flighted chinaman which bowled him through the gate and then out-thought Maxwell by a fast googly which zipped through the surface and took out his off-stump. In between, Marsh fell to a loose shot, caught behind off the bowling of Umesh Yadav. Suddenly, at 178-5 having lost 4 wickets for 34 runs, Australia were under tremendous pressure and understandably, Smith became very circumspect. He eventually scored his 3rd hundred of the series and Rahane knew that the Aussie skipper had the ability to combine effectively with the lower order and put up a huge 1st innings total. He introduced Ashwin before tea and the tall off-spinner prized out Smith for 111. Australia went to tea at 208-6, adding just 77 runs during the session and losing 5 wickets in the process. Wade and Cummins tried hard with Wade specifically, having little problems dealing with Kuldeep Yadav. Wade went on to score a well made half-century but eventually, Australia were all out for 300, well short of the score they had in sights at lunch. For India, all the bowlers picked up at least 1 wicket with Kuldeep Yadav being the star, picking up 4 wickets. 

India 1st innings


Unlike Australia, India started slowly, reined in no doubt, by tight Aussie bowling. Hazlewood got rid of Vijay very early, and that brought together India's most prolific pair of this series. KL Rahul and Pujara again combined well, with the in-form Rahul completing his 5th half-century of this series. However, soon after reaching his half-century, Rahul's concentration wavered as he played a few loose shots and was eventually bounced out by Pat Cummins. Rahul and Pujara put on 87 for the second wicket. While Cummins was hostile, the Aussie spinners were not looking penetrative. However, the pitch offered bounce and soon enough, Lyon started to find his groove. Immediately after tea, Lyon accounted for Pujara (who had reached another half-century) as the extra bounce generated by the overspin, got the bat & pad, and lobbed to short-leg. Karun Nair didn't last long either, as he got out to Lyon in a similar fashion. Rahane and Ashwin put together a fifty-partnership before Lyon struck again. He took out both Rahane and Ashwin in quick succession, and India were on the backfoot, having lost the last 5 wickets for 113 runs. With Saha and Jadeja new to the crease, and India still 79 runs behind, Australia sensed an opportunity to take a sizable first innings lead. They took the 2nd new ball and were immediately presented with an opportunity. Cummins had Saha edging to an out-swinger but Renshaw dropped a fairly straightforward catch. This was his second drop of the match (he had dropped Rahul earlier) and one that would prove decisive in the context of the match. Like in Ranchi, the 7th wicket partnership proved match-turning for India. The pair added 96 runs for the 7th wicket before Jadeja was dismissed for a well made 63. India eventually got all out for 332, a lead of 32 on a pitch that was rapidly deteriorating. Lyon took a 5-wicket haul and looked at his most dangerous since Day 1 in Bengaluru.

Australia crumble, India rumble


India's lead wasn't substantial and Australia would've been confident of quickly wiping that off. Instead, they were greeted by India's best all-round bowling performance of the entire season. Both Umesh Yadav and Bhuvneshwar Kumar were very hostile to begin with, bowling at high pace, swinging the new ball as well as bowling nasty bouncers. Even though Karun Nair let-off Warner in the slips again, it didn't prove costly for India as the seamers got rid of both the openers, as well as the batting mainstay, Steve Smith, before Australia could even erase India's lead. Maxwell and Handscomb then led a min-revival as they put on 55 for the 4th wicket. Both Ashwin and Jadeja, however, were getting enough assistance from the pitch and causing problems for both Maxwell as well as Handscomb. Finally, just before the tea interval, Ashwin forced Handscomb to nick a straighter delivery to 1st slip and in the very next over, Jadeja got Marsh caught at short leg. By then, Australia had lost 5 wickets and were ahead by only 60. Maxwell was holding fort from the other end and had reached an aggressive 45, before he padded up to an off-break from Ashwin and was adjudged LBW. That finally broke the back of the Aussie resistance. They eventually managed 137, setting India a target of 106. Ashwin, Jadeja and Umesh Yadav, each picked up 3 wickets.

A target barely crossing 100 was never going to test this Indian team, given that the pitch was still good for batting. KL Rahul got another half century (his 6th 50 in 7 innings in this series) and even though, Vijay and Pujara departed early, an aggressive Rahane ensured that win was achieved quickly and without any further hiccups. India won the match by 8 wickets and the series 2-1. The series win ensured that India regained the Border-Gavaskar trophy and also made India the holder of test trophies against all test playing nations simultaneously (only the 3rd team ever to achieve this). Ravindra Jadeja, with 127 runs (63 in this match) and 25 wickets (4 wickets in this match) in the series, was adjudged as the Man of the Match and Man of the Series. India's gamble of playing five bowlers worked and the debutante, Kuldeep Yadav, picked up four crucial wickets in the first innings.

In the end, India just had too much firepower, too much class for Australia. Like in Bengaluru (see my blog), Australia lost the match due to a poor batting performance in their 2nd innings. Ultimately, they needed someone other than Smith to produce a gritty batting performance (like Handscomb and Marsh did in Ranchi). India finished their 2016-17 test season with 10 wins, 2 draws and just 1 loss - joint 2nd for most test wins in a season. And though they dominated both New Zealand and England, this victory against the gritty Aussies would taste the sweetest!
    

Friday, 24 March 2017

Dharamsala test: Series decider in the shadow of the Himalayas

So we finally arrive in the hillside city of Dharamsala, with the series tied at 1-1, with hours of exciting cricket already played, and yet with everything to play for in the venue's debut test. There's been some banter on-the-field, some words spoken off-the-field, the media has played its role but overall, these incidents have been overshadowed by some terrific cricket played by both teams. Many expected India to steamroll their opponents but clearly Smith & his team were quietly confident about their chances, even before the Pune test. Its perhaps apt then, that they come into the decider on the back of a hard-fought draw, with both teams confident of their chances and yet, aware of the opposition's threat.

Will India make it 10 for the season?


Leading up to this series, India had won 8 tests and drawn 1 during this home season. In this series, they've won their 9th test, drawn their 2nd and lost their 1st test match of the season. Kohli & Co. will undoubtedly look to record their 10th victory at Dharamsala and take the series along with it. Given the quality of their opposition, this would be one of Kohli's sweetest series victories as a captain. In each of the three tests, Australia has grabbed the initiative and put India under severe pressure. And yet, apart from the failure in Pune, India has stood up to the challenge. They turned the tables both in Bengaluru, where they won, as well as in Ranchi, where they put Australia under tremendous pressure on Day 5. The bowlers have looked good and if the batting clicks as a unit, the Border-Gavaskar trophy could be won at this picturesque venue.

Will Smith & Co. conquer India in India?


Australia's last test series victory in India was in 2004-05. In fact, since that series winning test at Nagpur, Australia went 11 tests in India without a victory. They finally broke that winless run in Pune and had chances both in Bengaluru, and less so in Ranchi, to seal the Border-Gavaskar trophy (as a previous winner, Australia will retain the trophy even if they draw the series). Despite that, it can't be denied that the Aussies have held on valiantly after the morale-crushing defeat at Bengaluru and the subsequent sidelining of Mitchell Starc on account of injury. Pat Cummins showed in Ranchi that he's perfectly capable of filling in as a strike bowler. If the Dharamsala pitch lives up to its reputation of assisting seamers, then Australia can pick up Jackson Bird in place of the struggling Nathon Lyon and hope that they can use Maxwell's off-spin more effectively. A win or a draw will help Smith & Co. to retain the Border-Gavaskar trophy, a result unthinkable for many, even in the Australian press, just four weeks ago!    

How are the teams placed?


Australia is likely to field the same eleven that secured a draw in Ranchi. Pat Cummins has been cleared to play after precautionary tests on the back. Australia would be hoping that Nathan Lyon comes back into form on a pitch that will likely to have more bounce and pace than Ranchi. If the curator leaves more than a tinge of grass on the wicket, then Australia may be tempted to replace Lyon with Bird. However, that seems unlikely and even Australia won't want to change a stable, successful combination for a crucial test like this.

India has been bothered by a few injury issues, the biggest among them being the shoulder injury of Virat Kohli. Cricket fans will remember, that twelve years ago, Australia headed into the Nagpur test 1-0 up and on a greenish pitch that offered massive assistance to fast bowlers, India's captain (Sourav Ganguly) had to miss the test due to injury. The Aussies were pleasantly surprised by that pitch; their seamers picked up 16 wickets to help Australia win the match by a huge margin and secure the series. With the likelihood of a pitch assisting the seamers and the captain missing out on account of injury, there's a sense of déjà vu. Indians would be hoping to avoid an encore though. Shreyas Iyer has been called as a cover for Kohli, and Rahane will captain if Kohli fails to pass the fitness test. An additional headache has emerged in the form of M Vijay's fitness. He didn't attend the practice sessions and it's likely that the shoulder injury, that kept him out of the Bengaluru test, has flared up. If he does sit out, then Abhinav Mukund will take his place. On the bowling front, it's unlikely that India will tinker with the combination, except if there's potentially some swing available. In that case, Bhuvneshwar Kumar may replace Ishant Sharma. 

Pitch


The pitches in this series have come under intense scrutiny. And the quality of the pitches have thrown up some intriguing battles. The pitch at Dharamsala has traditionally assisted pace bowlers. And the cool climate (with temperatures in the low 20s) is likely to assist swing. Kohli expects the pitch to have bounce and carry. With the almost anti-climatic behavior by the Ranchi pitch after the massive hue & cry raised prior to the match, the predictions have been far more guarded this time around. Or may be, with so much at stake, everybody is too tense to venture into predictions!    

Monday, 20 March 2017

India & Australia: Perfecting the Art of Comeback

At the end of day 5 in Ranchi, a draw was probably a fair result. And the series scoreline, with a test to go, is also a fair reflection of how both teams have competed relentlessly on even terms. The Ranchi test ebbed and flowed in a manner symptomatic of this series. Australia pushed India on the back-foot through a sizable first innings total and by making inroads into the Indian middle-order. India then pulled things back through a monumental 7th wicket partnership and then applied pressure on the Aussies by picking up their first 4 wickets cheaply. Finally, it was left to the young, Handscomb and the experienced, Shaun Marsh to combine and save the day for the visitors.

Recapping Day 4 and Day 5


Australia had a slight upper hand going in to Day 4 with India still trailing by 91 (Check out My previous blog). The overcast conditions (necessitating the use of flood-lights) seemed to be tailor-made for Cummins and Hazlewood. However, the ball was soft (50 overs old) and the next new ball was available only after another 30 overs. Australia tried very hard, dried up the runs but couldn't break the resistance offered by Pujara and Saha. While Pujara remained resolute in defence, Saha used his feet intelligently against the spinners. Even though only 75 runs were added in the morning session, this pair ensured that India didn't lose a wicket and in the process came very close to the Aussie first innings total. Australia took the new ball as soon as it was available, in the hopes of breaking the partnership & then running through the Indian lower middle order. Those hopes were to remain suspended for another session though. And any hopes of India going for quick runs in the 2nd session quickly evaporated as the overnight pair ensured another wicketless session with the addition of 68 runs between lunch and tea. Post-tea session, however, was the most eventful of the match. Saha quickly completed his 3rd test century and then Pujara completed his double century, the 3rd of his career and 2nd against Australia. He got out shortly after that, giving Lyon his first wicket since the first innings of Bengaluru test, and ending a monumental 199 run partnership with Saha. Jadeja quickly got into the groove and even though Saha departed shortly after Pujara, he along with Umesh Yadav piled on further misery on the Australians by putting together a 54 run partnership. Jadeja got a quickfire fifty (54 off 55 balls) before Kohli declared, with India 152 in front and Australia facing the daunting task of seeing off 8 overs before close of play. They ultimately didn't have to play the full 8 overs as the nightwatchman, Lyon, fell to 2nd delivery of the last over. Jadeja was expected to be the danger-man for Australia and he got both Warner and then Lyon by two absolutely top class deliveries. Australia ended Day 4 at 23-2, still 129 runs in arrears, and staring at a real prospect of defeat.

Day 5 began with Australia's most prolific pair (during this series) on the crease. Both Renshaw and Smith had played the Indian spinners reasonably comfortably throughout the series and India knew that breaking this partnership would almost mean a foot in the door. The pair survived for another 21 overs and had brought the lead down to less than 100, when Renshaw fell LBW to Ishant. The Indian quick who was bowling from round the wicket, set up Renshaw very nicely. He bowled a couple of nasty bouncers and followed those up with a full delivery that caught Renshaw on the crease, dead in front of the stumps. Three balls later, Jadeja accounted for Smith when the Australian captain, in a moment of indecision eerily similar to his Indian counterpart in Bengaluru, padded up to a delivery that was relatively full and in line with the stumps, and lost his off-stump. With both in-form batsmen back in the hut and Australia still 89 runs behind India, Kohli & Co. must have started harbouring hopes of wrapping up a victory in the 2nd session. That however proved to be a false dawn with Shaun Marsh and Handscomb displaying superior defensive technique and putting up an outstanding rearguard action. Very importantly, the rightie-leftie pair kept the scoreboard ticking thereby eating away at India's lead. By the time Jadeja got Marsh, they had added 124 runs, eaten up 62 additional overs and the match was already in the last hour. Even though, Ashwin got Maxwell shortly thereafter, both Handscomb and Wade ensured no further damage and finally, with 10 minutes left, Kohli and Handscomb shook hands, signalling the end of a very thrilling encounter. 

Stats Stack-up


Two of the top 3 batsmen from both teams continue to dominate the batting charts. And, Peter Handscomb is slowly starting to make his mark in this series. He combined brilliantly with Shaun Marsh (who's at no.6 in the list below) to pull Australia out of the woods and help them save the Ranchi test. And who would've thought that Kohli would muster less than 50 runs in 5 innings! 

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

There's not much change in the bowling charts either. Jadeja has emerged as the most effective as well as the most consistent bowler from either side. Steve O'Keefe has been steady over the last two tests following his spectacular 12-wicket haul in Pune. Both the off-spinners will be slightly disappointed - they've been good in patches (one inning each in Bengaluru) but haven't looked consistently penetrative. Umesh Yadav continues to be the best fast bowler from either side but he may be in for some competition from Pat Cummins (given the likely conditions in Dharamsala). 

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Everything on the line in Dharamsala


The next test in Dharamsala starts in 5 days and this gives very little time for the players to recover. This is especially true for bowlers - on an average, the fast bowlers bowled 40 overs while the spinners bowled 70 overs (mainly because of Jadeja and O'Keefe) in this match. However, with the season coming to an end, the respective team managements will push the players to give it all. Plus, there's plenty on line here. Whoever wins the next match, wins this series as well as the Border-Gavaskar trophy. In case of a draw, Australia will retain the trophy. 

A fighting draw in Ranchi may give the momentum to the Aussies and hence make them favourites for the next test, but there've been enough instances during this series where teams, when counted down and out, have made spectacular comebacks. Recall how India seemed down and out at the end of Day 1 in Bengaluru (check my blog during Bengaluru test), and having already lost the Pune test (check my blog after Pune test), were in serious danger of losing the series. Instead they mounted a superb comeback, led by their bowlers as well as Pujara and Rahane, and pinned the Aussies on the mat. Coming into the 3rd test, remember the kind of pressure Australia and Steve Smith were under (following the DRS-issue). India were considered heavy favourites to continue their winning momentum in Ranchi. And yet, Australia, led by Smith and comeback man Maxwell, mounted an impressive first innings total. Further, Pat Cummins, returning to test cricket after 6 years, put India under serious pressure. Then again, Pujara and Saha rescued India with the bat while Jadeja, with both bat and ball, gave a mighty scare to the Aussies. Prediction won't make for a lucrative profession in this series. 

Dharamsala, making its debut as India's 27th test centre, will have a much cooler climate. It has traditionally assisted fast bowlers. We are all set for the final test of this season. Here's hoping that Dharamsala adds another exciting chapter to this riveting series!

Wednesday, 15 March 2017

Ranchi's test debut with series nicely set up at 1-1!

India made a stunning comeback in the Bengaluru test to level the series 1-1. The thrilling final day at Bengaluru has left the cricket lovers gushing for more! All the events - wickets, runs, swing, seam, spin, DRS reviews, momentum swings; everything seemed to be happening in fast-forward mode. Almost as if, Day 4 was a microcosm of the three previous days. So the long gap between the Bengaluru and Ranchi tests was welcome. Everybody, including the fans, needed to catch some breath after that breathtaking match.

Reliving the Thrilling Day 4


The day started with the match in balance. India started off cautiously - only 11 runs came off the first 8 overs. There were a few nervy moments for India - both against Pujara. First, when he a popped up a Steve O'Keefe delivery to forward short leg, where the usually brilliant Handscomb could only catch this one on a half-volley. And then again in the next over, when Lyon trapped Pujara LBW through a viciously spinning delivery which kept low, only to be overturned by DRS. The ball-tracker confirmed that the ball was spinning down the leg side. These anxious moments aside, the first 45 minutes of the day were calm & serene. This, however, turned out to be the calm before the storm. Australia took the new ball immediately after the 80th over. And this decision turned the match in Australia's favour. Mitch Starc, bowling fast & full, swinging the new ball into the right-handers, created havoc and within a space of 3 balls, had the well-set Rahane LBW, castled the in-form Nair and nearly got Saha too. In the very next over, Hazlewood got Pujara and Ashwin in quick succession. Pujara could not get to a well-deserved 100, falling in the nineties for the first time in his career. In his next over, Hazlewood got Umesh Yadav and this left India tottering at 258-9. Ultimately, Saha and Ishant got 16 more runs before O'Keefe got Ishant. India were all out for 274, losing the last 6 wickets for 36 runs, thereby setting Australia a target of 188. This was an in-between kind of a target; neither the 225+ that would have made India the firm favorites (esp. given the position they were in at the start of Day 4) nor the kind of total that Australia could've just cantered through.

The Aussies started their chase in a brisk manner, probably aware that the new ball was the best time to pick up quick runs. Ashwin started off very well, repeatedly troubling the shorter man, Warner. On the other hand, Ishant got the Aussie bedrock, Renshaw, pretty early. It was a very good ball - bowled from round the wicket, angled in, bounced & seamed away, taking the glove on its way to Saha. Despite this early hiccup and a few other nervy moments, Australia had galloped to 42-1 after 9 overs, a run rate of 4.67 (far ahead of the run-rates achieved in the previous three innings of the match). This is when disaster struck for Australia. Ashwin, who was bowling from over the wicket to Warner and was hit for a 6 off the last ball of his previous over, switched to round the wicket and on the very first ball, Warner tried to sweep a flighted off-break and was wrapped on his pads. The umpire gave it out and after a surprising moment of hesitation, Warner went for the DRS. The ball tracker showed that the ball barely hit Warner in the line of off-stump (in fact, to the naked eye, it appeared that the ball had hit him outside the line) - this was adjudged as umpire's call. Further, the ball seemed to be hitting the outside of off-stump - again adjudged as umpire's call. Given the evidence, DRS had to agree with the on-field umpire's decision but it was a highly contentious decision and one that would have a lasting impact on the outcome of the match. Smith and Shaun Marsh continued the steady flow of runs and took Australia to 67-2 when a slew of serious errors in judgement rocked the Aussie boat again. Firstly, Shaun Marsh shouldered arms & was wrapped on his pads to a Umesh Yadav delivery from round the stumps. Then, the umpire Nigel Llong, adjudged him LBW when the ball was clearly going to miss the stumps. Shockingly, Smith and Marsh decided not to review the decision! That decision of not reviewing was probably based on the fact that they had just lost a review (Warner) and did not want to risk a scenario where they would be left with no reviews for 65 overs. India of course, did not mind these dollops of luck but were very much aware of the danger that Smith posed. He was expertly handling the spinners and was keeping out the grubbers delivered by Indian seamers. However, in the 21st over, another grubber from Umesh proved one too many for Smith and he was hit plumb in front of his stumps. Surprisingly, this time, Smith was rather keen on reviewing and even looked up to his dressing room for help with DRS. This was a clear breach of rules and the umpires intervened, sending Smith on his way. Even Kohli had a thing or two to say to his Aussie counterpart. This was the final nail in the coffin for Australia, and despite Handscomb and Mitch Marsh putting up a brief resistance, a rampaging Ashwin proved too much for the lower-middle order. Very much like their opponents, Australia lost the last 6 wickets for 38 runs with Ashwin picking up 5 of them. He roared back into form with a match-winning spell of 6-41 in the 2nd innings while KL Rahul, for his twin-fifties in a low scoring affair, was adjudged the Man of the Match. India won the match by 75 runs and leveled the series in emphatic fashion.

The much-dreaded thunderstorms arrived in the evening but thankfully, the match was over by then. It would've been cruel if rains were to decide the outcome of such a thrilling match.

Key themes in this series


Pitches


While it's fair to say that the pitches have been spinner friendly (spinners have taken 57 of the 80 wickets to fall in the series), the fast bowlers have also had an impact, esp. in the Bengaluru test where they accounted for 14 out of the 40 wickets that fell. Pune served up a rank-turner with the pitch crumbling on day 1 itself thereby offering vicious turn & bounce. On such a pitch, quick left-arm orthodox spinners became more dangerous and both the captains relied more on spin vis-a-vis pace. The Bengaluru pitch on the other hand offered variable bounce (more on the lower side) which brought the fast bowlers into play as well as slow turn which forced the spinners to rely more on variations in flight & uneven bounce. The charts below bear this out.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Starc, the batsman, as crucial as Starc, the bowler


As Australia's premier strike bowler, Mitch Starc has bowled at high pace throughout the series. He's got the ball to swing into the right-handers from over the wicket, got it to rear up from a good length and has gone round the wicket in search of reverse swing. Even though he's picked up only 5 wickets, each of those have been top order batsmen. Equally impressive has been his performance with the bat. He's amongst the top 5 run getters having out-scored both Warner and Kohli. In fact, he's accounted for 54% of the runs scored by the last 5 Australian batsmen across all innings (118 runs out of 217). In a series punctuated with low scores, where no team has crossed 300 and teams have not been able to cross 125 on three separate occasions, Starc's contribution with the bat has had a major impact. His absence for the remainder of the series, therefore, will be a massive blow to the Aussies.

Top order thrives, middle order flops


From both sides, an opener and the no. 3 batsman has thrived. KL Rahul has been India's star performer with the bat, and with 215 runs, is the highest run getter on either side. He, alongwith Pujara, has ensured that, even though India has not got off to solid starts during the series, it has made a comeback as a batting unit. On the other hand, Aussies have been assured of a solid start mainly due to the increasingly dependable Renshaw and the captain-prolific, Steve Smith. These four batsmen occupy the top four positions in the batting charts. On the other hand, the failure of David Warner and Virat Kohli has been most surprising. Neither of them has totaled even 100 runs in the series. While Warner has got starts in 3 out of 4 innings, he has generally struggled against Ashwin and hence, has not been able to convert them into big scores. Kohli, on the other hand, has misjudged either the line of the ball or the movement off the pitch on three occasions, and this has resulted in cheap dismissals. All in all, the middle and lower order has undone the good work of the top order.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Aussie spinners outbowled the Indians; Umesh stands out amongst quicks


In their first three innings, the Indian batsmen were dominated by the Australian spinners. They kept the runs down and picked up 26 out of the 30 wickets. The impact was such that India could only stitch together two 50-run partnerships across these 3 innings. On the other hand, Ashwin, Jadeja and Jayant Yadav were less impactful in the first test match and couldn't run through the Australian batting line up. This allowed the Aussies to stitch together four 50-run partnerships in the first test itself. However, first Jadeja and then Ashwin began pulling things back in the 2nd test. They matched the Aussie spinners in the first innings of the 2nd test match and then finally, outbowled them in the 2nd innings with Ashwin leading the way. 

In the pace bowling department, while both Starc and Hazlewood have had their moments, Umesh Yadav has been the standout quick bowler from either side. He picked up 6 wickets in the Pune test and 3 top order batsmen in the Bengaluru test. Umesh has been quick, economical and has consistently generated pace & movement. 

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

DRS usage & impact


The Decision Review System has added spice to the ongoing series. It's not just those decisions which were reviewed, but even those that could've been reviewed but weren't, that added to the drama. By common consensus, India were pretty ordinary with their usage of DRS in the first test. While fielding, in both their innings, they wasted their reviews within the first 40 overs. While batting in the 2nd innings, they wasted their reviews within the first 6 overs! None of the wasted reviews were even close to overturning the umpire's decision. On the other hand, Australia were very judicious with their usage of review system, never reviewing those where they had some doubt, and they ended up with multiple successful reviews throughout the match.

India's first innings at Bengaluru seemed to be a continuation of Pune when Kohli left a relatively straight & fuller delivery from Lyon and was trapped plumb in front. If the leave wasn't shocking enough, he decided to outmatch that with a shocking review! In Australia's first innings, India missed a trick by, ironically, not going for a review against Shaun Marsh when he gloved a Umesh Yadav delivery to Saha. He was on 14 at that time and went on to make a crucial 66. In between, Marsh went for a great review when adjudged LBW to Yadav and managed to get the decision overturned. India meanwhile continued with the trend of "hopeful" reviews and were out of their 2nd set of reviews (granted after the 80th over) by the 94th over!

Things however, began changing in India's 2nd innings. Kohli reviewed what looked like a genuine 50-50 LBW call and was probably unlucky that there was no conclusive evidence proving whether the ball hit the bat first or the pad. Even Pujara got an LBW call overturned. The Aussies, meanwhile, continued to be judicious with their use of DRS.

The review system left a significant impact on the match in Australia's 2nd innings. First, the Warner dismissal was clearly a contentious call where the benefit of doubt should have gone in favour of the batsman. Then, Shaun Marsh not reviewing a howler was clearly influenced by the Warner review. Lastly, the Smith episode where he, after being adjudged LBW, looked up his dressing room for advice on whether or not to go for the review, caused a lot of bad blood between the two teams. Smith insisted "brain-fade", Kohli alleged ongoing tactic and ultimately, the two cricket boards had to intervene and call a truce.

Leading up to the Ranchi test


Pitch


The JSCA International Stadium at Ranchi is set to make its debut as India's 26th test center. The average first innings total in the two Ranji matches held earlier this season is 140. Progressively the pitch became better for batting in those games. Also, it has been known to assist both the seamers as well as spinners. As per media reports, the pitch for the upcoming test match has an unusual dark color about it and experts believe that it won't bounce a lot. The dark color of the pitch may be on account of moisture which would mean that spinners relying on overspin (like Lyon) may extract some bounce on the first couple of days. The moisture in the pitch should also help bowlers who can extract seam movement. The pitch should become better for batting on Day 2 and Day 3.

Team compositions


Mitch Starc's injury will be a big blow for the Aussies. Another Mitch (Marsh) has also been ruled out due to injury and that means Australia will be forced to make at least two changes. They've flown in Pat Cummins as a replacement for Starc and he's likely been rushed in to enable a like-for-like replacement (strike bowler to be used in short bursts). However, I won't be surprised if Australia opt for Jackson Bird. Also, I expect them to bring in Marcus Stoinis to replace Mitch Marsh. 

For India, M Vijay should make a comeback as an opener. It's unlikely that they'll drop Karun Nair and bring in Jayant Yadav. 

With the series now in balance and with both teams now aware of each other's strategies, this should be another engrossing affair. Australia can retain the Border-Gavaskar trophy if they win here. Kohli & co. would be eager to prove that Pune was an aberration. Let's Play!