IPL 2017 final: Who'll make history?

The 3rd Sunday of May will see two-time champions, Mumbai Indians (MI), attempting to do what they haven't achieved since the 1st Sunday of May last year. It was on 1st May 2016 that MI overcame Rising Pune Supergiants (RPS) at Pune and avenged their defeat earlier that season. In the 2017 season, MI and RPS have squared off thrice and on each of those occasions, RPS has defeated MI, with the last victory being the most comprehensive. So, in the finals of IPL 2017, Rohit Sharma and his men would be desperate for revenge.

RPS the bogey team for MI

MI has a 1-4 losing match record against RPS (0-3 this season). A review of MI's 2017 season reveals that they've had their fair share of close matches. But while they've clinched close victories against other opposition, the 2015 champions have come up short against their Maharashtra brethren. In each of those matches, MI has held an upper hand, only for a couple of outstanding individual performances winning the day for RPS. 

In their first match this season, first it was Tahir who put the brakes on MI after they had got off to a fantastic start. Even though lusty hitting in the final overs from Pollard and Hardik Pandya ensured that MI put up a challenging 184, they were undone by Rahane at the top (his best performance of this season; highest score at the best strike rate) and then, when MI seamers threatened to get their team over the line, they were again trumped by Smith who had to hit 2 sixes in the final over to ensure that RPS won with a ball to spare. 

In their second encounter (my blog on that match), Rahane again played a decent hand and combined nicely with Tripathi for the first wicket, to ensure that, despite the middle order wobble, RPS finished with a respectable (albeit, slightly below par) 160. MI openers got off to another good start before Stokes and then the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) brought RPS back into it. Rohit then steadied the ship, played an outstanding innings and was combining well with Pollard when Tahir struck. That proved to be a crucial blow, and Stokes and then Unadkat produced some outstanding death-over bowling to take RPS home by a mere 3 runs! Stokes, especially, was sensational - bowling with pace and hostility, and fielding with verve & vigour. He was duly adjudged the man of the match.

By virtue of being table toppers, MI and RPS clashed again in the first qualifier at Wankhede. RPS batted first and despite Rahane playing well again, all MI bowlers had the wood on the RPS batters till the 18th over. Then Dhoni produced 10 minutes of magic, helping plunder 41 runs off the final two overs and getting RPS to another defendable score of 162. MI again got off to a decent start before two unlucky dismissals combined with outstanding spin bowling from Sundar made MI sweat in the heat of Mumbai and they ultimately fell short by 20 runs. This was a very comprehensive victory and esp. sweet, given that both Stokes and Tahir had left for national duties.

Why the RPS conundrum for MI?

Rahane loves MI bowlers

This season, the Mumbai-lad Ajinkya Rahane has scored 154 runs in 3 matches against MI at a strike rate of 141. This is in sharp contrast to 184 runs in 12 matches (strike rate of 105), against all the other teams. That two of those matches against MI have come at Wankhede, hasn't helped the 2015 IPL champions. Rahane, clearly wants his home city franchise to pay, for not sticking with him!

RPS bowlers' ability to take wickets and choke run scoring

Against RPS, MI has lost 25 wickets in 3 matches (8.3 wickets per match); this again is in sharp contrast to 72 wickets lost in 13 matches against other teams (5.5 wickets per match). That ratio becomes even more skewed when one looks at the numbers when MI chase. Against RPS, MI has lost 17 wickets in 2 matches when chasing (8.5 wickets per match) while the same stat against other teams is 49 wickets in 9 matches (5.4 wickets per match). Both the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) as well as the seamers (Unadkat and Stokes) have picked up wickets at regular intervals, thereby either denying MI any upper hand or sucking out the momentum whenever MI was able to build a partnership. 

In IPL 2017, between overs 7 and 15, RPS bowlers have bowled most dot balls (321), taken most wickets (41) at the lowest economy rate (7.16) - this is clearly a stat that stands out. 

Performance of the big players

In all three matches against MI, one of the star players for RPS has stood up and helped the 2-year old franchise cross the finishing line. It was Steve Smith in the first match, Ben Stokes in the 2nd and the redoubtable Dhoni in the 3rd. Contrast this to the performance of MI's big players (Rohit Sharma, Pollard, Mitch McClenaghan). Pollard sparkled briefly with the bat in the first match but then went for 30 runs in 1.5 overs while bowling (towards the end when other bowlers went for 43 in 5 overs @8.6 RPO) and couldn't defend 13 runs off the final over. Rohit failed in the first match but was sublime in the 2nd. He had scored 58 runs off 38 balls before he fell in the final over and hence couldn't take his team over the line. In the 3rd encounter, when at 121/3 after 18 overs, RPS was staring at a less-than-150 total, McClenaghan went for 26 runs off the crucial 19th over and handed back the momentum to RPS. Each time, at the crunch moments, while RPS' star players delivered, MI's star players flattered to deceive.

What do the performance charts reveal?

There are only two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 15 run-getters this season; Parthiv and Pollard for MI, Smith and Tripathi for RPS. Amongst these, only Smith features in the top 5 (at no. 5) while MI's top run-getter, Parthiv is at no. 8. However, both teams have been served well by consistent performances from multiple batsmen - they have more batsmen scoring 150+ runs in the tournament than both SRH and KKR. Hence, unlike SRH or KKR, the finalists haven't been dependent on 1 or 2 batsmen.  

In the bowling charts, however, there are two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 5 wicket-takers; McClenaghan and Bumrah for MI, Unadkat and Tahir for RPS. In terms of economy rates, for bowlers who've bowled a minimum of 20 overs, one bowler each from MI and RPS figure in the top 5 (incidentally both offies - Harbhajan for MI; Sundar for RPS). Likewise, in the top 15, there are four bowlers each from MI and RPS (much higher than all other teams). 

It's fair to say that both the finalists boast of a bowling attack, that is frugal as well as penetrative while their batting lineups aren't dependent on 1 or 2 key players.

How can MI secure their 3rd IPL title?

Win toss, bat first

In the 2017 edition, both RPS and MI have a similar record in terms of win ratios when batting 2nd vis-a-vis batting 1st. When defending a target, MI has won 3 out of 5 matches (60% win ratio) and RPS has won 5 out of 8 matches (62.5% win ratio). On the other hand, when chasing a target, MI has won 8 out of 11 matches (72.7%) and RPS has won 5 out of 7 matches (71.4%). Hence, conventional logic would suggest that the team which wins the toss will elect to chase. However, one look at IPL finals over the years reveal, that in the high-pressure situation of the title match, teams have been more successful when defending - out of 9 nine previous editions, 6 titles have been won by the team which batted first in the finals. IPL finals have produced high scores (4 times, a 200+ target was set, including in each of the previous three years) and the teams that've won when batting first, have mostly sailed to comfortable victories. On the other hand, teams chasing have always had it close and the most comfortable victory (by KKR in 2014) came with just 3 balls to spare!

Counter the spinner threat

Washington Sundar was very effective in the Qualifier 1, taking 3 top order wickets of MI, and RPS will most likely use him again upfront. Throwing in an aggressive, tall left-hander (Krunal Pandya or, even Mitch McClenaghan) may work for MI. Even though Sundar is an offie, he doesn't spin the ball a long way, mainly relies on off-breaks and bowls on the middle-stump line. Hence, a lefty's slog / conventional sweep as well as inside out shot over covers (whenever there's spin) would be a safe and a very effective way of nullifying the Sundar-threat. The other spinner who's caused a bit of strife i.e. Imran Tahir won't play, and that should work out as an advantage for MI.

Counter the slower ones from the seamers

The RPS seamers have bowled many varieties of slower ones, esp. in the last 5 overs, and that has kept the MI power hitters (Pollard, Hardik Pandya) in check. Both Pollard and Hardik prefer hitting down the ground, without moving too much in their crease, and such attempts haven't been effective against the slower ones / knuckle balls that are bowled just short of good length. MI need an innovative striker who can also play the ramp shots, paddle sweeps, late cuts etc. Hence, the role of Ambati Rayudu becomes very crucial. He should ideally come in at no. 4 and should look to bat till the end.

Bowling combination

Leg spinners and left-arm spinners have been very successful against the predominantly right-handed batting line up of RPS. This was possibly the reason why MI chose to drop their most economical bowler, Harbhajan Singh, in the previous match and played both Karn Sharma as well as Krunal Pandya. I believe, MI will continue with this strategy for the title clash. McClenaghan, who didn't play in the Qualifier 2 against KKR due to injury, will also likely sit out. In case, he replaces Johnson, ideally Rohit would like to use him up by the 15th over. The last four overs should be shared between Bumrah, Hardik Pandya and, unless Dhoni is on the crease, Malinga. These bowlers generally deploy a judicious mix of slower ones (at different lengths) and yorkers and it's that ability to keep the batsmen guessing which is most effective, esp. when batsmen are looking to score off every ball. 

Conclusion

Both the finalists of the first IPL (2008) were banned for two years in 2015, and one of the finalists of 2017 (RPS) may not play next year. RPS would want to finish on a high by winning the tournament and thereby, making a strong case for inclusion next year (IPL rules are likely to be overhauled for the next edition). And MI, which had a very poor initiation in IPL - having finished outside top 4 in the first two editions (no. 5 in 2008, no. 7 in 2009) - recently became the only team with 100+ T20 wins. Since 2009, MI has finished in the top four in 7 out of IPL 8 editions (including four times in the top two). They would want to cap off the first decade of IPL by winning their third title and sealing the bragging rights as the most successful IPL team. Individually, Rohit Sharma is going for his 4th IPL title (won 2 with MI and 1 with Deccan Chargers) while Dhoni will be looking to win his 3rd (won 2 with CSK). If this title clash can match the drama and excitement of the 2008 final, the fans would've got their money's worth. Let's play!  

  

IPL 2017: If April was hot, May will be hotter!

A sprint is comprised of three broad phases - drive, maximum velocity, maintenance. During the drive phase, the sprinter begins in a crouched position as he bursts from a dead still position into a sprint, and strives to make use of his entire body. In the maximum velocity phase, the sprinter is in a fully erect position and achieves top speed. Lastly, in the maintenance phase, the sprinter's goal is to minimize deceleration, as he cannot maintain top speed for the entire race. 

Sprint is an apt comparison with the freneticism that IPL represents. And like in a sprint, we've seen various IPL editions go through similar phases. Some teams, like a standard sprinter, start in the best possible manner, making best use of available resources, and try to gain maximum momentum for the latter half of the tournament. Others, like Usain Bolt, start slowly but continue to build momentum as they move to the knockout stage. Every IPL has thrown up both kinds. 

For example, at the halfway stage in IPL 2016, neither of the finalists (SRH and RCB) were in the top four. In fact, the runners-up RCB were languishing at the 7th spot. They then made a strong surge, finished in the top two at the end of the league stage and eventually made the finals. On the other hand, there were the table toppers Gujarat Lions, who figured in the top 2 almost throughout the league stage but failed to make the finals. Similarly, in the 2015 edition, Mumbai Indians, having endured another poor start, were placed 7th halfway through the tournament. Like RCB in 2016, MI too made a strong surge towards the end, finishing in the top two and eventually did one better than RCB, by winning the 2015 edition. Meanwhile, the table toppers, Chennai Super Kings, were in the top two throughout the league phase and eventually made the finals.

Nearly 60% of league matches of IPL 2017 are done and dusted. By now, the well prepared teams have settled into their winning combination while the not-so-well-prepared ones are running helter skelter to find one. Or, in sprint terminology, the drive phase is over and we are in the midst of the maximum velocity phase. The points table, which was previously getting overhauled after each match, is now seeing marginal adjustments. Hence, this is a good time to take a look at those aspects, that make up the team combinations, and have impacted the league standings so far. Basically, we look at the following:

• Batting - opening combinations
• Batting strategy
• Bowling strategy
• Performance of all-rounder
• Performance of wicket-keeper

How are the teams stacked up?

A cursory glance at the points table at different stages during the 2017 edition (see below), will reveal how certain teams have maintained consistently strong performances, certain others have made a comeback of sorts and the remaining few have slipped. 

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

While Mumbai Indians (MI), Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) have remained in the top 4 throughout, Kings XI Punjab (KXIP) has slipped after a good start. Rising Pune Supergiant (RPS), which has won 4 out of their last 5 matches, is now making a strong surge. So is Gujarat Lions (GL), which seems to be finally getting its act together, with key players back in form. Delhi Daredevils (DD), despite boasting of the strongest pace bowling attack and after getting off to a good start, hasn't got its batting strategy right and this has cost them a place in the top 5. Lastly, Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) has mostly not turned up, barring a rare good performance - RCB has consistently hugged the bottom of the table.

For the purpose of the analyses below, I've divided the teams into three categories based on their performances so far (all analyses below is upto Match no. 33, featuring KXIP vs. SRH on 28th April 2017):

• Leaders - Teams with more than 50% wins and +ve NRR; MI, KKR and SRH
• Laggards - Teams with 40-50% wins or -ve NRR; RPS
• Also-rans - Teams with less than 40% wins; GL, KXIP, DD and RCB

Opening batting combination

One of the most crucial aspects of a strong batting lineup, esp. in a T20 match, is whether the opening combination is settled or not. Successful teams typically have:

• A stable opening pair
• Opening pair regularly gets a partnership of 30+ runs 
• As a result, the team manages to score 50+ in the powerplay without losing more than 2 wickets.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

MI and SRH have stuck to the same opening pair for all their matches, and they've got 30+ run partnerships on 5 occasions each. While MI has scored 53 runs on an average in the powerplays (losing 2 wickets), SRH has managed only 46 runs (losing only 1 wicket). This go slow approach by SRH seemed deliberate in the first few matches, as the normally aggressive Warner assumed the role of a sheet anchor and SRH had their hitters in Henriques, Hooda and Yuvraj following immediately after the openers. This has changed in the last few matches as they've got Williamson at no. 3, allowing both Warner and Dhawan to bat a little more aggressively.

KKR meanwhile has adopted a different strategy. With Gambhir anchoring the innings, they've given the license to the other opener to go for broke from ball 1. They started their campaign with the big-hitting Chris Lynn but once Lynn was injured, they promoted Sunil Narine up the order, and the Trinidadian has delivered big time for his team (141 runs at a strike rate of 178). KKR too has a settled opening pair now, with Gambhir and Narine opening together in the last 6 matches.

RPS has used 3 openers and their powerplay numbers are more impressive than both MI and SRH. They've got an opening partnership in excess of 30 on four occasions and their average score after powerplays is 53 (losing 1 wicket in the process). While RPS first tried Mayank Agarwal alongside Rahane, they've now settled for Rahul Tripathi instead of Agarwal. Tripathi has been one of the finds of the tournament scoring 216 runs at a strike rate of 154+, so far.

GL has tried a horses for courses approach, with McCullum as a fixture at one end and experimentation with four other openers at the other. They started with Jason Roy, then moved to Dwayne Smith, had Finch open on a couple of occasions when Smith was struggling against spinners, and then, in the last match against RCB, they sent in the left-handed Ishan Kishan to counter the threat of two leg-spinners in the RCB lineup. Finch has been used as a floater while Smith has now been moved to lower middle order. GL's run rate seems to be impressive but they are still yearning for consistency at the top.

On the other hand, KXIP has a settled opening pair in Amla and Manan Vohra with Shaun Marsh tried for one match, when Vohra was injured and Guptill tried once, when Amla was injured.

Neither of the bottom two teams have a settled opening pair. DD have tried four combinations with four openers (Samson, Billings, Tare and Karun Nair) and the opening wicket still averages only 29. Lastly, the star-studded RCB hasn't got their opening pair right, having looked at 5 different openers and 5 different opening combinations in their 8 matches! Obviously, Virat Kohli's injury hampered their opening strategy but even though he's back, RCB isn't sure whether Gayle fits into their overall scheme of things. The result has been just three partnerships of 30+ runs and an average PP score of 40. It's probably fair to say that the also-rans group has been hampered due to instability or consistency at the top.

Batting strategy

Let's now take a look at the batting strategy adopted by various teams. For this purpose, I've divided the innings into the following three phases:

1. Powerplay overs - Overs 1 to 6
2. Middle overs - Overs 7 to 16
3. Slog/end overs - Overs 17 to 20

I've then looked at the average run rates of teams during these phases to understand the strategy adopted by the various teams. Looking at the phase-wise run-rates:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

From the above charts, I believe it's more relevant to look at the first innings chart (for this purpose) since the run-rates while batting 2nd are driven by the target being chased. We can clearly witness the following two types of batting strategies from the above chart (first innings):

1. Start briskly, consolidate in the middle overs and then explode at the death - strategy followed by MI, KKR, RPS, DD and GL.
2. Start slowly, increase the run rate in the middle overs and continue to maximize run-scoring towards the death - strategy adopted by SRH, KXIP and RCB

The above strategy becomes evident if one looks at the batting orders of the respective teams.

Bowling combination

How about bowling combinations? While T20 started out as a batsman's game with bowlers playing supporting characters, over time this has changed. Champion T20 teams of today have very strong bowling line-ups and the captains generally have 6-7 bowling options. Let's look at the bowling combinations (pace and spin) that the teams have used so far in the 2017 edition.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

From the above charts, it's very clear that KKR and RCB have relied on spin much more (~45% of total balls bowled) than the pace-heavy line-ups of DD (25%), MI (31%) and SRH (33%). KKR has played Kuldeep Yadav and Sunil Narine in almost all matches and got them to bowl their full quota; plus, they've also played Piyush Chawla and Shakib Al Hasan occasionally. RCB too has relied heavily on the spin of Chahal, Negi and Badree.

On the other hand, DD has mainly played four fast bowlers (Morris, Cummins, Zaheer and now Rabada) and after playing Nadeem alongside Mishra for the first three matches, is now solely relying on Mishra as the spin option. MI too has utilized Harbhajan as the main spinner with the all-rounder Krunal Pandya playing the supporting role on a few occasions. On the other hand, SRH has completely relied on the Afghan star, Rashid Khan, as their sole spinning option (except for a couple of matches).

One look at the economy rate comparison between pace and spin (chart below) tells us that teams should look to utilize spinners a little more.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Even when comparing bowling averages or strike rates, spinners don't suffer in comparison to the pacers.

Lastly, we also look at the no. of bowlers that various teams have tried (pace and spin), subject to certain minimum criteria. One would notice that the top teams generally have a settled line-up.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

Performance of all-rounders

In order to make up for one or two bowlers having a bad day (or a bad match-up against a particular batsman who's in devastating form), most IPL captains increasingly prefer at least 6 bowlers in the line-up. This makes the role of all-rounders crucial. And these all-rounders typically contribute by scoring runs briskly and keeping the runs down while bowling (economy rates are as useful as wickets in a T20 match). I've taken a look at all-rounders across various IPL teams, applied criteria of at least 50 runs scored while batting and at least 4 overs bowled. Then I've compared the batting strike rate with the economy rate (per 100 balls) and taken the difference between the two (calling this All-Rounders' Index). Eliminating the negative ARIs i.e. where batting strike rate is less than bowling economy rate, this is what we get:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

Sunil Narine with an ARI of +67.5 is very much the standout amongst the all-rounders and is one of the primary reasons why KKR is on top of the points table. For MI, the Pandya brothers have provided incredible balance to the side. Ben Stokes has been the talisman for RPS (as was amply on display in the MI-RPS match at Wankhede). Similarly, DD's fortunes have fluctuated with the rise and fall of Chris Morris' form. In the initial stages he set the tournament on fire, bowling with pace and taking wickets upfront, and providing the late burst while batting. This enabled DD to get off to a good start but as Morris' form has dipped, so have DD's performances. Needless to say, a good all-rounder is critical to his team's fortunes.

Wicket-keepers - key to team balance 

What about wicket-keepers, I hear many of you ask! In modern cricketing terminology, a wicket-keeper, if also a capable batsman, is considered as an all-rounder. And team managements clearly demand that wicket-keepers contribute handsomely with the bat. For almost all IPL teams (except SRH), the wicket-keeper is also a key batsman - either playing in the top order (Uthappa, Parthiv, Jadhav) or coming at the back end to get some quick runs (Dhoni, Karthik, Saha and Pant). So, it's imperative that we look at their performances from a team composition perspective. For the following analysis, I've devised a composite batting metric (called batting index) that combines the run per innings (RPI; not the average) and strike rate per 100 balls. It's a product of the two parameters; so basically, if a batsman scores 40 runs in an innings at a strike rate of 90, the batter's performance is penalized as the batting index works out to 36 (40 x 0.9). Conversely, if he scored the same number of runs at a strike rate of 125, the batting index works out to a significantly better 50.  

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

From a batting perspective, Robin Uthappa has been the most outstanding performer with a batting index of 69.5 - far ahead of the competition. This too has enabled KKR to remain the front-runners in the current edition. Other notable performers include Jadhav and Karthik.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

The primary job of a keeper, however, is keeping wickets. For analyzing the keeping performance, we take a look at dismissals per innings as well as extras conceded per innings (byes which are attributable to the keeper). Here, it's the Indian test wicket-keepers (present or past) who've been especially tidy - look at the extras / innings for Parthiv, Dhoni, Karthik and Saha. In terms of dismissals / innings, Uthappa and Pant stand out, but a lot of that has to do with the type and quality of bowling line-ups that their respective teams possess.

Conclusion

In a 100 mtr sprint, most runners achieve top speed around the 60 mtr mark and they try to maintain this speed till the 80 mtr mark. It can be argued that KKR, MI and SRH are fast approaching that stage. They've ticked most of the boxes - stable opening pair in line with the batting strategy, bowlers performing their assigned roles, key all-rounder(s) identified and wicket-keeper contributing both behind, as well as, in-front of the stumps. The focus will remain on making the play-offs and possibly finishing in the top 2 (thereby securing two chances to qualify for the finals). 

On the other hand, the laggards will look to play catch up and possibly go for an all-out attack. Expect them to be more ruthless with their selections in the coming matches. They'll be less reliant on strategy, more on scrapping. And also, hopeful to do a Usain Bolt. The 8-time Olympic gold medalist is a renowned slow-starter who hits the highest velocity in the 60-80 mtr phase and then maintains this speed almost till the finishing line. Not a bad example to emulate!