Showing posts with label Dhoni. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dhoni. Show all posts

Saturday, 19 August 2017

Sri Lanka test series: Key takeaways for India

This blog is available as a video blog on https://youtu.be/LytF_FFwfWY

A three-test series, billed as part of the first full tour by an Indian team since 2009, ended in 11 days of play. Sri Lanka managed to cross 300 only once in the first two tests, and then, couldn't even cross 200 in the final test. Such was India's domination that they had a first innings lead in excess of 300 in all three tests and enforced follow-on in the last two matches. When one team scores nearly 2,000 runs in three and a half innings (avg. RPW of 61), while the other team cannot even manage 1,500 runs in six innings (avg. RPW of 24), it demonstrates, not just the different performance levels, but also the gulf in class between the two sides. The winning team, therefore, finds it difficult to take positives from the series. However, on account of bold team selection as well as some luck, India managed some positives from this series.

Hardik Pandya's emergence as an all-rounder


With 178 runs in 3 innings and 4 wickets in the 32 overs he was asked to send down, Hardik Pandya began repaying the faith that the team management has shown in him, over the last 12 months or so. His rise through the ranks has been meteoric. A first class debut in November 2013 was followed by selection in the Mumbai Indians playing XI in the 2015 IPL season. The India limited overs cap didn't take too long and he impressed one and all with his explosive batting and effective bowling. In fact, it was the rapid improvement in his bowling that encouraged the Indian team management to earmark him for the longest form of the game. A casual glance at his batting numbers in this series, esp. his strike rates, may give the impression that he played the same way as he does in the ODIs and T20s. But while he did provide the impetus in the first test by scoring a quickfire 50, his maturity stood out in the 3rd test. He strode in at 322/6 after the fall of Ashwin's wicket and India quickly lost Saha at 339. On a pitch that was giving some assistance to the bowlers, Pandya first stitched together a patient 62-run partnership with Kuldeep Yadav and then, when running out of partners, smashed 70 out of the last 86 runs while consuming 42 of the last 69 balls. Three out of the four wickets he took, were that of established batsmen. He also pouched four catches, second only to Rahane amongst non-wicket-keepers. A genuine all-rounder is worth his weight in gold and given that the overseas tours of South Africa, England and Australia are coming up, a pace-bowling all-rounder like Pandya could make a big difference.

Kuldeep Yadav firmly established


It was only due to the suspension of Jadeja from the 3rd test, that allowed the left-arm chinaman, Kuldeep Yadav, to play a test match in this series. Despite his series-winning performance in his debut test against Australia in March, once the captain and coach had made up their minds to play Pandya as the third seamer, it was always difficult for Kuldeep to feature in the starting XI. However, it didn't take Kuldeep too long to make a mark. He ran through the Sri Lankan middle and lower order in the first innings to hasten them to 135 all out and then broke a dangerous partnership between Dinesh Chandimal and Angelo Mathews in the 2nd innings. Overall, he picked up 5 wickets in his only test match at an impressive average of 19 and an even more impressive strike rate of 36 balls per wicket. Once again, the selectors and the Indian team management deserve a lot of credit for blooding this Kanpur lad and what has been very impressive is that Kuldeep has been effective across all formats of the game. The fuller length that Kuldeep prefers is ideally suited for test matches; yet it has worked wonders in the slam bang variety too. This is mainly on account of the disguise that Kuldeep deploys, wherein he's able to bowl both the normal chinaman as well as the wrong-un, with a scrambled seam. Given Ashwin and Jadeja's struggles in the Champions Trophy, Kuldeep would ideally be the no. 1 choice spinner in both ODIs and T20Is. And his performances in the limited opportunities he's got at the test level, should firmly establish him as the no. 3 spinner. In fact, I believe that in the upcoming overseas tours, if India decide to play with 2 spinners, Kuldeep's wrist spin would be far more effective on the bouncy pitches as compared to the finger spin of Ashwin and Jadeja.

KL Rahul continuing from where he left

KL Rahul was in a rich vein of form before injury halted his golden run. Till the 4th test against Australia in Dharamsala, Rahul had hit a half-century in each test of that series including five consecutive ones. Given his form in IPL 2016 and his vastly enhanced attacking strokeplay, the Bangalore lad was supposed to make a big impact in the IPL as well as in the Champions Trophy. Unfortunately, his shoulder injury required a surgery and that meant, 4 months out of the game. Then again, in Sri Lanka, he was laid low by viral fever and had to sit out of the first test at Galle. However, the tall right-hander was amongst runs as soon as he was back in the playing XI. He scored a half-century each in the two innings he batted, thereby becoming the first Indian batsman to score 7 consecutive test 50s. The only worry for Rahul would be that his last 8 test scores in excess of 50, have all ended short of the century mark. Nevertheless, the captain would be very pleased to see Rahul back in the team and his inclusion at the no. 4 spot for the upcoming ODIs is a sure indicator of the high esteem in which Rahul's technique, temperament and performances, are held by the Indian team management. 

Mohammed Shami's successful return from injury


Mohammed Shami, India's best quick bowler in test matches over the last few years, has had long-injury layoffs over the last two and a half years and this has caused him to miss many test matches. He returned to play in the West Indies tour in July 2016 after the knee surgery post-the 2015 World Cup, kept him out of the game for several months. Then, he was laid low again by knee injury against England and he missed out the 2nd half of the England series as well as the entire Australian series. A penetrative, test match class, quick bowler is such a rare commodity for Indian cricket and hence, his performances in this series must have been keenly watched by both selectors as well as the team management. And Shami didn't disappoint. He picked up 10 wickets, which was 3rd behind Ashwin and Jadeja, at a very impressive average of 17.7 and an amazing strike rate of 36.5. He was truly in his elements in the 3rd test, bowling at blistering pace and prising out 5 wickets while conceding less than 50 runs. All this augurs very well for future tours but India needs to manage Shami's workload properly so that there's no recurrence of the knee injury.

India has rested all their main test bowlers for the ODI leg of the tour. While this seems to be a sensible strategy for fast bowlers, at least one of Jadeja or Ashwin should've been part of the squad, as their one-day form, of late, hasn't been impressive. On the other hand, the ODI batting line-up seems to be at full-strength and the likely first choice line-up for the 2019 world cup. Interestingly, while Yuvraj has most likely been left out for good, Dhoni seems to have secured his swansong as his closest rival, Rishab Pant, has been unfairly dropped from the squad. India is expected to experiment and use this series as a build-up to the 2019 world cup. Here's then, wishing for a more competitive one-day series!

Sunday, 18 June 2017

Champions Trophy 2017: Asian Party in London

Let's start with a short quiz. When was the last time India played Pakistan in a major tournament final? Most of you will get it right - it was indeed the ICC T20 World Cup final 10 years ago. But what if the question was limited to finals of ODI tournaments involving more than 3 teams? One has to go back more than 23 years i.e. to April 1994, when the then reigning world champions, Pakistan, beat India in the finals of Australasia Cup (in Sharjah) to win their 3rd successive title. And the last time India and Pakistan met in the finals of a major global ODI tournament was in March 1985, when the then World Cup holder, India, beat Pakistan in the finals of the World Championship of Cricket (held in Australia).

The Romance of India-Pakistan encounters!


The South Asian cricketing giants have met less frequently in the last decade or so, as volatile political environment has restricted bilateral tours. The cricketing world has been poorer for this. This, and the fact that Pakistan is still banned from hosting cricket in their own country (8th year running) as well as excluded from IPL, has seen India-Pakistan matches lose their edge recently. This is such a far cry from those two decades (mid 80s to mid 2000s) when India and Pakistan ODI encounters produced edge-of-the-seat thrillers. Cricket fans would remember the match when India won while defending a lowly 125 runs in Sharjah (1985) or when Miandad hit a last-ball six off a Chetan Sharma full-toss to help Pakistan win the first Australasia Cup, also in Sharjah (1986). We all remember the world cup encounters, esp. the 1996 quarter-finals and the 2003 slug-fest. But, how many of you remember that 40-over ODI in 1987 where India, having set Pakistan a target of 239 and having them struggling at 174/6, still lost mainly due to Salim Malik's brilliance (who scored 72 of the last 80 runs at a strike rate of 200!)? Or, even that 1991 match in Sharjah where a young Tendulkar almost helped India chase down 258 against a bowling line-up comprising Wasim Akram, Aaqib Javed and Waqar Younis, in fading light (India lost by 4 runs!). Sharjah may have slowly faded into insignificance but India and Pakistan continued producing thrilling encounters - in Toronto (1996), when India lost by 2 wickets when defending 264 and despite having Pakistan down at 221/8 (Salim Malik the tormentor again); in Dhaka (1998) when India won the Independence Cup by chasing down a then-record 315 (won by 3 wickets); in Brisbane (2000) when Pakistan won by 2 wickets when chasing 196 and looking down and out at 153/8 (Saqlain and Waqar, as batsmen!); in 2004 (Karachi), when India sneaked home by 5 runs despite setting Pakistan a huge target of 350, as Moin Khan couldn't do a Miandad off the last ball, despite getting a full-toss.

Although, India and Pakistan produce the occasional brilliant game even now, since 2006 India have dominated their neighbours, having won 17 out of 27 completed games. Contrast this with the overall record - it still stands at 72 wins for Pakistan vs. 52 wins for India. Their first game in the Champions Trophy 2017 was representative of how India has dominated Pakistan since 2006. Pakistan will hope that there's no encore in the final.        

What has India done well so far in Champions Trophy 2017?


India, the pre-tournament favourite, has lived up to their reputation and are functioning like a well-oiled machine. The top order has been both solid as well as swashbuckling, with Dhawan and Rohit topping the run charts and Kohli too in the top 5. Each of the middle and late order batsmen have played at least one significant innings or cameo. While Bumrah and Bhuvneshwar Kumar haven't picked up a bunch of wickets, they've been very economical (going at less than 4.75 RPO). The fielding has been very good too, with the fielders effecting 6 run outs so far and catching having improved significantly since the first match against Pakistan. Except for the 2nd innings against Sri Lanka, India has been very clinical in all their other games. They've won when defending a target (against Pakistan) as well as when chasing one (South Africa, Bangladesh).

Yet, certain phases of their bowling performance in the league game against Sri Lanka as well as the semi-final against Bangladesh will worry Virat Kohli and Anil Kumble. India's bowling has been largely unsuccessful to pick up wickets in the middle-overs. Sri Lanka successfully chased down 322 quite comfortably while Bangladesh, having crossed 150 in the 27th over for the loss of just 2 wickets, were on course for a 320+ score before the part-time off-spin of Kedar Jadhav induced a mid-innings collapse. In the finals, India will surely demand more wickets from their front-line spinners (esp. Ashwin) as well as their pace-bowling all-rounder, Hardik Pandya.

What has propelled Pakistan to their first Champions Trophy final?


Pakistan has been the most improved side in this tournament. They were the bottom-most ranked team when the tournament began (at no. 8) and even their most ardent fans gave them little chance to make the finals. But the Pakistani team decided to live up to its age-hold billing as "mercurial and maverick". After the big loss against India in their tournament opener and having lost Wahab Riaz due to injury, facing the top-ranked South Africa in a must-win game was daunting. But they've strung together a series of such amazing bowling performances that they've restricted strong batting line-ups of South Africa, Sri Lanka and England for less than 250 in 3 successive games. This has mainly been on account of penetrative middle-over pace bowling by Pakistan and this hasn't allowed the opposition to follow the tried-and-tested model of accumulation in the middle-overs followed by acceleration towards the end. Hasan Ali and Junaid Khan are amongst the top 5 wicket-takers and as a result, they've been economical too (less than 5 RPO).

However, Pakistan's batting is still a big concern. They got slightly lucky against South Africa with rain and D/L coming for help. Then, they were staring at defeat against Sri Lanka when chasing a modest 237 before an unbroken 8th wicket partnership of 75 runs rescued them. It was only against England in the semi-final that Pakistan produced a clinical batting display to chase down 212 with 8 wickets in hand and 77 balls to spare. Yet, Pakistan will be very aware of India's batting depth and it's unlikely, in case they are chasing, that they'll face a less-than-250 target in the finals.

So how does it look like?


If one looks at the strong and weak areas of both teams, they represent perfect contrasts. India will love to have Pakistan's bowling penetration in the middle-overs while Pakistan will feel complete if they can match India's batting prowess at the top order. To the die-hard fans on either side, this would sound very similar to a recurring theme in the 90s - Indian fans wished their team had a bowling attack (esp. fast bowlers) like Pakistan and Pakistani fans wondered when they'll get the kind of batting depth like India. 

The weather seems to be clear for the final and hence, toss may prove critical. Both teams would like to chase, esp. Pakistan. The final will be played on a fresh track and this may aid run-scoring. For Pakistan, Mohammad Amir will likely be back while India may retain the same team that won the semi-final. If India bat first, they'll look for a score close to 300 (may not want to go hard for a 325+ score). If they bat second, the Indian team would be confident of chasing down any score upto 325. Let's hope for a repeat of the high-scoring Independence Cup final in 1998 (the third final). That'll surely rekindle the old romance! 

Sunday, 21 May 2017

IPL 2017 final: Who'll make history?

The 3rd Sunday of May will see two-time champions, Mumbai Indians (MI), attempting to do what they haven't achieved since the 1st Sunday of May last year. It was on 1st May 2016 that MI overcame Rising Pune Supergiants (RPS) at Pune and avenged their defeat earlier that season. In the 2017 season, MI and RPS have squared off thrice and on each of those occasions, RPS has defeated MI, with the last victory being the most comprehensive. So, in the finals of IPL 2017, Rohit Sharma and his men would be desperate for revenge.

RPS the bogey team for MI


MI has a 1-4 losing match record against RPS (0-3 this season). A review of MI's 2017 season reveals that they've had their fair share of close matches. But while they've clinched close victories against other opposition, the 2015 champions have come up short against their Maharashtra brethren. In each of those matches, MI has held an upper hand, only for a couple of outstanding individual performances winning the day for RPS. 

In their first match this season, first it was Tahir who put the brakes on MI after they had got off to a fantastic start. Even though lusty hitting in the final overs from Pollard and Hardik Pandya ensured that MI put up a challenging 184, they were undone by Rahane at the top (his best performance of this season; highest score at the best strike rate) and then, when MI seamers threatened to get their team over the line, they were again trumped by Smith who had to hit 2 sixes in the final over to ensure that RPS won with a ball to spare. 

In their second encounter (my blog on that match), Rahane again played a decent hand and combined nicely with Tripathi for the first wicket, to ensure that, despite the middle order wobble, RPS finished with a respectable (albeit, slightly below par) 160. MI openers got off to another good start before Stokes and then the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) brought RPS back into it. Rohit then steadied the ship, played an outstanding innings and was combining well with Pollard when Tahir struck. That proved to be a crucial blow, and Stokes and then Unadkat produced some outstanding death-over bowling to take RPS home by a mere 3 runs! Stokes, especially, was sensational - bowling with pace and hostility, and fielding with verve & vigour. He was duly adjudged the man of the match.

By virtue of being table toppers, MI and RPS clashed again in the first qualifier at Wankhede. RPS batted first and despite Rahane playing well again, all MI bowlers had the wood on the RPS batters till the 18th over. Then Dhoni produced 10 minutes of magic, helping plunder 41 runs off the final two overs and getting RPS to another defendable score of 162. MI again got off to a decent start before two unlucky dismissals combined with outstanding spin bowling from Sundar made MI sweat in the heat of Mumbai and they ultimately fell short by 20 runs. This was a very comprehensive victory and esp. sweet, given that both Stokes and Tahir had left for national duties.

Why the RPS conundrum for MI?


Rahane loves MI bowlers


This season, the Mumbai-lad Ajinkya Rahane has scored 154 runs in 3 matches against MI at a strike rate of 141. This is in sharp contrast to 184 runs in 12 matches (strike rate of 105), against all the other teams. That two of those matches against MI have come at Wankhede, hasn't helped the 2015 IPL champions. Rahane, clearly wants his home city franchise to pay, for not sticking with him!

RPS bowlers' ability to take wickets and choke run scoring


Against RPS, MI has lost 25 wickets in 3 matches (8.3 wickets per match); this again is in sharp contrast to 72 wickets lost in 13 matches against other teams (5.5 wickets per match). That ratio becomes even more skewed when one looks at the numbers when MI chase. Against RPS, MI has lost 17 wickets in 2 matches when chasing (8.5 wickets per match) while the same stat against other teams is 49 wickets in 9 matches (5.4 wickets per match). Both the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) as well as the seamers (Unadkat and Stokes) have picked up wickets at regular intervals, thereby either denying MI any upper hand or sucking out the momentum whenever MI was able to build a partnership. 

In IPL 2017, between overs 7 and 15, RPS bowlers have bowled most dot balls (321), taken most wickets (41) at the lowest economy rate (7.16) - this is clearly a stat that stands out. 

Performance of the big players


In all three matches against MI, one of the star players for RPS has stood up and helped the 2-year old franchise cross the finishing line. It was Steve Smith in the first match, Ben Stokes in the 2nd and the redoubtable Dhoni in the 3rd. Contrast this to the performance of MI's big players (Rohit Sharma, Pollard, Mitch McClenaghan). Pollard sparkled briefly with the bat in the first match but then went for 30 runs in 1.5 overs while bowling (towards the end when other bowlers went for 43 in 5 overs @8.6 RPO) and couldn't defend 13 runs off the final over. Rohit failed in the first match but was sublime in the 2nd. He had scored 58 runs off 38 balls before he fell in the final over and hence couldn't take his team over the line. In the 3rd encounter, when at 121/3 after 18 overs, RPS was staring at a less-than-150 total, McClenaghan went for 26 runs off the crucial 19th over and handed back the momentum to RPS. Each time, at the crunch moments, while RPS' star players delivered, MI's star players flattered to deceive.

What do the performance charts reveal?


There are only two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 15 run-getters this season; Parthiv and Pollard for MI, Smith and Tripathi for RPS. Amongst these, only Smith features in the top 5 (at no. 5) while MI's top run-getter, Parthiv is at no. 8. However, both teams have been served well by consistent performances from multiple batsmen - they have more batsmen scoring 150+ runs in the tournament than both SRH and KKR. Hence, unlike SRH or KKR, the finalists haven't been dependent on 1 or 2 batsmen.  

In the bowling charts, however, there are two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 5 wicket-takers; McClenaghan and Bumrah for MI, Unadkat and Tahir for RPS. In terms of economy rates, for bowlers who've bowled a minimum of 20 overs, one bowler each from MI and RPS figure in the top 5 (incidentally both offies - Harbhajan for MI; Sundar for RPS). Likewise, in the top 15, there are four bowlers each from MI and RPS (much higher than all other teams). 

It's fair to say that both the finalists boast of a bowling attack, that is frugal as well as penetrative while their batting lineups aren't dependent on 1 or 2 key players.

How can MI secure their 3rd IPL title?


Win toss, bat first


In the 2017 edition, both RPS and MI have a similar record in terms of win ratios when batting 2nd vis-a-vis batting 1st. When defending a target, MI has won 3 out of 5 matches (60% win ratio) and RPS has won 5 out of 8 matches (62.5% win ratio). On the other hand, when chasing a target, MI has won 8 out of 11 matches (72.7%) and RPS has won 5 out of 7 matches (71.4%). Hence, conventional logic would suggest that the team which wins the toss will elect to chase. However, one look at IPL finals over the years reveal, that in the high-pressure situation of the title match, teams have been more successful when defending - out of 9 nine previous editions, 6 titles have been won by the team which batted first in the finals. IPL finals have produced high scores (4 times, a 200+ target was set, including in each of the previous three years) and the teams that've won when batting first, have mostly sailed to comfortable victories. On the other hand, teams chasing have always had it close and the most comfortable victory (by KKR in 2014) came with just 3 balls to spare!

Counter the spinner threat


Washington Sundar was very effective in the Qualifier 1, taking 3 top order wickets of MI, and RPS will most likely use him again upfront. Throwing in an aggressive, tall left-hander (Krunal Pandya or, even Mitch McClenaghan) may work for MI. Even though Sundar is an offie, he doesn't spin the ball a long way, mainly relies on off-breaks and bowls on the middle-stump line. Hence, a lefty's slog / conventional sweep as well as inside out shot over covers (whenever there's spin) would be a safe and a very effective way of nullifying the Sundar-threat. The other spinner who's caused a bit of strife i.e. Imran Tahir won't play, and that should work out as an advantage for MI.

Counter the slower ones from the seamers


The RPS seamers have bowled many varieties of slower ones, esp. in the last 5 overs, and that has kept the MI power hitters (Pollard, Hardik Pandya) in check. Both Pollard and Hardik prefer hitting down the ground, without moving too much in their crease, and such attempts haven't been effective against the slower ones / knuckle balls that are bowled just short of good length. MI need an innovative striker who can also play the ramp shots, paddle sweeps, late cuts etc. Hence, the role of Ambati Rayudu becomes very crucial. He should ideally come in at no. 4 and should look to bat till the end.

Bowling combination


Leg spinners and left-arm spinners have been very successful against the predominantly right-handed batting line up of RPS. This was possibly the reason why MI chose to drop their most economical bowler, Harbhajan Singh, in the previous match and played both Karn Sharma as well as Krunal Pandya. I believe, MI will continue with this strategy for the title clash. McClenaghan, who didn't play in the Qualifier 2 against KKR due to injury, will also likely sit out. In case, he replaces Johnson, ideally Rohit would like to use him up by the 15th over. The last four overs should be shared between Bumrah, Hardik Pandya and, unless Dhoni is on the crease, Malinga. These bowlers generally deploy a judicious mix of slower ones (at different lengths) and yorkers and it's that ability to keep the batsmen guessing which is most effective, esp. when batsmen are looking to score off every ball. 

Conclusion


Both the finalists of the first IPL (2008) were banned for two years in 2015, and one of the finalists of 2017 (RPS) may not play next year. RPS would want to finish on a high by winning the tournament and thereby, making a strong case for inclusion next year (IPL rules are likely to be overhauled for the next edition). And MI, which had a very poor initiation in IPL - having finished outside top 4 in the first two editions (no. 5 in 2008, no. 7 in 2009) - recently became the only team with 100+ T20 wins. Since 2009, MI has finished in the top four in 7 out of IPL 8 editions (including four times in the top two). They would want to cap off the first decade of IPL by winning their third title and sealing the bragging rights as the most successful IPL team. Individually, Rohit Sharma is going for his 4th IPL title (won 2 with MI and 1 with Deccan Chargers) while Dhoni will be looking to win his 3rd (won 2 with CSK). If this title clash can match the drama and excitement of the 2008 final, the fans would've got their money's worth. Let's play!