Sri Lanka test series: Key takeaways for India

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A three-test series, billed as part of the first full tour by an Indian team since 2009, ended in 11 days of play. Sri Lanka managed to cross 300 only once in the first two tests, and then, couldn't even cross 200 in the final test. Such was India's domination that they had a first innings lead in excess of 300 in all three tests and enforced follow-on in the last two matches. When one team scores nearly 2,000 runs in three and a half innings (avg. RPW of 61), while the other team cannot even manage 1,500 runs in six innings (avg. RPW of 24), it demonstrates, not just the different performance levels, but also the gulf in class between the two sides. The winning team, therefore, finds it difficult to take positives from the series. However, on account of bold team selection as well as some luck, India managed some positives from this series.

Hardik Pandya's emergence as an all-rounder

With 178 runs in 3 innings and 4 wickets in the 32 overs he was asked to send down, Hardik Pandya began repaying the faith that the team management has shown in him, over the last 12 months or so. His rise through the ranks has been meteoric. A first class debut in November 2013 was followed by selection in the Mumbai Indians playing XI in the 2015 IPL season. The India limited overs cap didn't take too long and he impressed one and all with his explosive batting and effective bowling. In fact, it was the rapid improvement in his bowling that encouraged the Indian team management to earmark him for the longest form of the game. A casual glance at his batting numbers in this series, esp. his strike rates, may give the impression that he played the same way as he does in the ODIs and T20s. But while he did provide the impetus in the first test by scoring a quickfire 50, his maturity stood out in the 3rd test. He strode in at 322/6 after the fall of Ashwin's wicket and India quickly lost Saha at 339. On a pitch that was giving some assistance to the bowlers, Pandya first stitched together a patient 62-run partnership with Kuldeep Yadav and then, when running out of partners, smashed 70 out of the last 86 runs while consuming 42 of the last 69 balls. Three out of the four wickets he took, were that of established batsmen. He also pouched four catches, second only to Rahane amongst non-wicket-keepers. A genuine all-rounder is worth his weight in gold and given that the overseas tours of South Africa, England and Australia are coming up, a pace-bowling all-rounder like Pandya could make a big difference.

Kuldeep Yadav firmly established

It was only due to the suspension of Jadeja from the 3rd test, that allowed the left-arm chinaman, Kuldeep Yadav, to play a test match in this series. Despite his series-winning performance in his debut test against Australia in March, once the captain and coach had made up their minds to play Pandya as the third seamer, it was always difficult for Kuldeep to feature in the starting XI. However, it didn't take Kuldeep too long to make a mark. He ran through the Sri Lankan middle and lower order in the first innings to hasten them to 135 all out and then broke a dangerous partnership between Dinesh Chandimal and Angelo Mathews in the 2nd innings. Overall, he picked up 5 wickets in his only test match at an impressive average of 19 and an even more impressive strike rate of 36 balls per wicket. Once again, the selectors and the Indian team management deserve a lot of credit for blooding this Kanpur lad and what has been very impressive is that Kuldeep has been effective across all formats of the game. The fuller length that Kuldeep prefers is ideally suited for test matches; yet it has worked wonders in the slam bang variety too. This is mainly on account of the disguise that Kuldeep deploys, wherein he's able to bowl both the normal chinaman as well as the wrong-un, with a scrambled seam. Given Ashwin and Jadeja's struggles in the Champions Trophy, Kuldeep would ideally be the no. 1 choice spinner in both ODIs and T20Is. And his performances in the limited opportunities he's got at the test level, should firmly establish him as the no. 3 spinner. In fact, I believe that in the upcoming overseas tours, if India decide to play with 2 spinners, Kuldeep's wrist spin would be far more effective on the bouncy pitches as compared to the finger spin of Ashwin and Jadeja.

KL Rahul continuing from where he left

KL Rahul was in a rich vein of form before injury halted his golden run. Till the 4th test against Australia in Dharamsala, Rahul had hit a half-century in each test of that series including five consecutive ones. Given his form in IPL 2016 and his vastly enhanced attacking strokeplay, the Bangalore lad was supposed to make a big impact in the IPL as well as in the Champions Trophy. Unfortunately, his shoulder injury required a surgery and that meant, 4 months out of the game. Then again, in Sri Lanka, he was laid low by viral fever and had to sit out of the first test at Galle. However, the tall right-hander was amongst runs as soon as he was back in the playing XI. He scored a half-century each in the two innings he batted, thereby becoming the first Indian batsman to score 7 consecutive test 50s. The only worry for Rahul would be that his last 8 test scores in excess of 50, have all ended short of the century mark. Nevertheless, the captain would be very pleased to see Rahul back in the team and his inclusion at the no. 4 spot for the upcoming ODIs is a sure indicator of the high esteem in which Rahul's technique, temperament and performances, are held by the Indian team management. 

Mohammed Shami's successful return from injury

Mohammed Shami, India's best quick bowler in test matches over the last few years, has had long-injury layoffs over the last two and a half years and this has caused him to miss many test matches. He returned to play in the West Indies tour in July 2016 after the knee surgery post-the 2015 World Cup, kept him out of the game for several months. Then, he was laid low again by knee injury against England and he missed out the 2nd half of the England series as well as the entire Australian series. A penetrative, test match class, quick bowler is such a rare commodity for Indian cricket and hence, his performances in this series must have been keenly watched by both selectors as well as the team management. And Shami didn't disappoint. He picked up 10 wickets, which was 3rd behind Ashwin and Jadeja, at a very impressive average of 17.7 and an amazing strike rate of 36.5. He was truly in his elements in the 3rd test, bowling at blistering pace and prising out 5 wickets while conceding less than 50 runs. All this augurs very well for future tours but India needs to manage Shami's workload properly so that there's no recurrence of the knee injury.

India has rested all their main test bowlers for the ODI leg of the tour. While this seems to be a sensible strategy for fast bowlers, at least one of Jadeja or Ashwin should've been part of the squad, as their one-day form, of late, hasn't been impressive. On the other hand, the ODI batting line-up seems to be at full-strength and the likely first choice line-up for the 2019 world cup. Interestingly, while Yuvraj has most likely been left out for good, Dhoni seems to have secured his swansong as his closest rival, Rishab Pant, has been unfairly dropped from the squad. India is expected to experiment and use this series as a build-up to the 2019 world cup. Here's then, wishing for a more competitive one-day series!

IPL 2017: How did Pune manage runners-up?

"How did RPS not become champions of IPL 2017?" That must be the question ringing loudly in Steve Smith's ears as he packs his bags after a 3 month long-tour of India. This was his 2nd heartbreak as captain in less than two months and both came in matches where his team dominated at the outset. The fact that he topped the batting charts in the test series and was also the top run scorer amongst both IPL finalists (no. 4 overall), would be minor consolations. As the skipper of RPS, this snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory, will hurt Smith. And the brute reality of him being at the crease till the final over and esp. when the match was in RPS' control, will confound and hound him in equal measure. What played out at Hyderabad was a classic case of many a slip between the cup and the lip!

Mighty struggle for the MI batters

It all looked very different at the halfway stage, of course. RPS had put in a brilliant bowling display and restricted MI to a manageable 129. In fact, even 129 looked difficult at the 15 over stage. Rohit Sharma won the toss and, in keeping with the tradition in IPL finals, chose to bat first (my previous blog covering this). Unadkat continued his rich vein of form and quickly snuffed out both the MI openers with the team score still in single digits. Rohit Sharma and the local boy, Ambati Rayudu, tried to stem the tide but the going wasn't easy. The man of the match in the previous MI-RPS encounter, off-spinner Washington Sundar, kept things very tight and didn't allow MI to get away in the powerplay. Rohit plundered four boundaries off Ferguson in the 6th over to ensure that MI reached a respectable 32/2 (given the slowish pitch) at the end of powerplay. However, as things were beginning to look slightly better for MI, disaster struck. Rayudu played a firm cover drive, off Ferguson, straight to Smith at mid-off and tried scampering for a non-existent single. He was possibly hoping that Smith would miss hitting directly but the RPS skipper hit the bulls eye, finding Rayudu well short of the crease. At 41/3, MI were hoping that the free-flowing Rohit and the in-form Krunal Pandya would put on a partnership similar to the one in the Qualifier 2 against KKR. However, they were in for a rude shock. In the 11th over, the leg-spinner Adam Zampa first got the benefit of a bigger ground at Uppal when Rohit failed to get the distance while pulling a short delivery, and holed out to deep mid-wicket. In came Kieron Pollard and he looked like he wanted to break the shackles straight away. He smote an effortless six off the first ball he faced but then fell to some tactically brilliant field placement. Possibly on advice from Dhoni, Smith placed a very straight long-off and Pollard duly obliged, hitting a flighted delivery from Zampa, straight to that fielder. Hardik Pandya didn't last long and neither did Karn Sharma. At the end of 15 overs, MI were 81/7 and in real danger of being bowled out for less than 100.

Krunal Pandya rescues MI

The one man standing between RPS and the IPL trophy, however, was the exceptionally smart and versatile, Krunal Pandya. He quickly assessed the nature of the wicket and as the last recognized batsman, decided to delay the late innings assault. Receiving good support from the experienced Mitch Johnson, Pandya demonstrated great improvisation in dealing with both, the slower ones from Unadkat, as well as the seam-up deliveries from Dan Christian. Crucially, MI plundered 37 runs off the last 3 overs and gave their bowlers 129 to defend. MI's hopes now rested on a superlative performance from their more consistent discipline this year i.e. their bowling.

Over-cautious RPS keep MI in the game

Still, given that 129 was the lowest a team had scored when batting first in an IPL final, RPS were heavy favorites going into the 2nd innings. MI needed early breakthroughs and Bumrah did just that, trapping the explosive Tripathi in front. The lanky MI bowler got slightly lucky with the decision as the ball was going just over the stumps. MI should've picked up Rahane also but Krunal Pandya dropped a sitter after Malinga had foxed the RPS opener by a brilliant slower one. Like he has done all IPL, Rohit continuously rotated his bowlers. At the 10 over mark, the game was meandering along with neither MI picking up wickets nor RPS getting ahead of the required run rate (by way of aggressive batting). However this meant that even though MI were sloppy in the field, the combination of miserly bowling and over-cautious batting from Rahane and Smith, kept MI in the game. MI believed (and rightly so) that a couple of wickets could really make this chase, tense.

In the 12th over, the game suddenly opened up. First, Johnson picked up Rahane, thanks to an exceptional catch from Pollard. The tall West Indian ran quickly from long-on and then dived forward to complete an extremely tough catch. Then, RPS decided to bring Dhoni in at no. 4. This was a deviation from their earlier strategy of batting Tiwary at 4 and Dhoni at 5. Possibly, the RPS team management felt that Dhoni would take longer to get in and an equation reading 59 off 49 was manageable with Smith still batting. However, that equation soon became 47 from 30 balls as Karn Sharma, Krunal Pandya and Malinga delivered three exceptional overs, going for just 12 runs! As the tournament's last strategic timeout came about, Dhoni was struggling with 4 from 9 balls and Smith too was scoring at less than run-a-ball (25 off 35 balls). MI was making RPS sweat for every run but with the protagonists of the successful chase from this season's first MI-RPS encounter, at the crease, RPS were still the favorites.

Last 5 overs of IPL 2017 - ebbs and flows

16th over - As Krunal Pandya got ready to bowl his final over, the experience duo of Smith and Dhoni instantly realized that they needed to attack the left-arm spinner by taking calculated risks. Off the 3rd ball, Dhoni used his fast bat speed and strong wrists to hit a vertical bat square cut, and got a welcome boundary. Then off the 5th ball, Smith played, arguably, the shot of the match. He unleashed a powerful reverse sweep and hit it well over the point boundary for a six. 14 runs came off that over, equation was brought down to 33 off 24 balls and Rohit Sharma's gamble of bowling a spinner at this stage of the innings, seemed to have backfired. Advantage RPS!

17th over - Realizing that he needed wickets as well as stem the flow of runs, the MI skipper brought on his trump card and his clutch bowler, Bumrah. Earlier in this season, Bumrah was preferred over Malinga to bowl the superover against Gujarat Lions and he successfully defended 11 against batsmen of the calibre of McCullum and Finch. He was entrusted to bring MI back in the game and he didn't disappoint. Off the 2nd ball of the over, a fast in-cutter got Dhoni slashing and edging to Parthiv Patel. In came Manoj Tiwary and almost immediately had a huge LBW shout turned down. Overall, Bumrah bowled three dot balls (including the wicket-taking delivery) and conceded a single each of the other three balls. To summarize, he brought MI right back into the match with an over of the highest quality. RPS now needed 30 from 18 balls; remember, MI got 37 runs from their last 18 balls! Slight advantage to RPS!

18th over - Malinga was entrusted with bowling the 18th over. The old Sri Lankan warhorse didn't have a great IPL but he was mostly accurate in this match. First four balls included two dots and two singles. Equation climbed up to 28 runs from 14 balls and also went up MI's chances. Then Smith produced another moment of magic - a near yorker on the leg stump was expertly dealt with (by staying deep in the crease) and whipped to the backward square leg fence for a crucial boundary. 7 runs came off Malinga's final over and the equation now read, 23 runs from 12 balls. Still advantage to RPS but MI in with a fair chance!

19th over - Rohit continued with Bumrah for the crucial 19th over. With so much riding on his young shoulders, Bumrah possibly felt the pressure and delivered a full-toss first up. Smith too, possibly nervous, couldn't take full advantage of this and nearly holed out to deep mid-wicket. The next three deliveries went for three singles (1 leg bye). At this stage, the equation read 19 off 8 balls and if Bumrah managed to concede only 2-3 runs, the last over equation would've been very tough for RPS. Instead, Smith, who was sitting very deep in his crease and hence was able to generate leverage for the just-short-of-yorker length, smacked the 5th ball for a six over long-off. The last ball was another high full-toss and yet again, Smith couldn't make a good connection (they ran two). Nevertheless, with 12 runs coming off that over, the equation was down to 11 runs off 6 balls. Big advantage to RPS with MI's chances dimmed slightly!

20th over - In the first MI-RPS encounter this season, Bumrah had delivered the 19th over and by conceding just 7 runs in that over, he left 12 runs to be defended in the final over (and Pollard couldn't defend those). Here, he had gone for 12 runs in the penultimate over and hence, left only 10 runs to defend. However, the key difference was that Rohit had one over from Johnson and hence, didn't have to go to any non-regular bowler. With Tiwary on strike, Johnson bowled the first delivery from over the wicket and his slower one was dispatched for a boundary. Now, just 7 runs were needed off 5 balls - looked like all over for MI! Johnson switched sides and Tiwary, looking for a big hit, got the inside half of the bat (off another slow off-cutter) and his lofted drive landed safely into the big hands of Pollard at long-on. However, importantly for RPS, the batsmen had switched ends as the catch was being taken and hence, with 7 needed off 4 balls, it was Smith on strike. The time for the knockout punch was now or never! Johnson delivered a seam-up delivery just outside off and Smith hit an amazing lofted square drive. The connection was very good and the ball was headed for 6 but it was also headed in the direction of the only outfielder on the off-side, Ambati Rayudu. Rayudu positioned at sweeper cover, plucked out a very good catch since the ball was travelling flat and quick. In fact, a few inches on either side, would've meant a 6 thereby almost finishing off MI's chances. This was a crucial wicket for MI - two wickets in two balls also meant that there were two dot balls. The equation had become a more difficult 7 off 3. And the batsmen couldn't cross in time and hence, instead of Dan Christian, it was Sundar on strike. The batsmen stole a bye on the hattrick ball and it was now in the hands of Christian. 6 needed off 2 and Christian got a length ball on the leg stump but the burly all-rounder couldn't deposit it for a boundary or six. Hardik Pandya dropped a tough chance at deep mid-wicket and the fumble allowed a couple. So it was down to 4 runs off the final ball! Two Aussies faced up to each other with the Indian Premier League trophy on the line! Johnson bowled another quick ball on the leg stump, Christian could only manage to get it to the substitute fielder (Suchith) at deep square leg. Suchith made a nervy stop, possibly aware of the boundary rope behind him, and even fumbled when making the throw. However, his throw was accurate enough and as the RPS batsmen attempted the third, Parthiv Patel effected the run out and MI won the match and hence IPL 2017, by a solitary run! It was an exhilarating performance by MI and they won a match in which, at the innings break, nobody gave them a chance.

Conclusion

This victory was made possible due to excellent all-round bowling performance by MI and over-cautious approach by the RPS batsmen. It was sweet revenge for Rohit and his men and in many ways, this match was a microcosm of all the previous MI-RPS encounters this season. Similar to the first match, it was MI batting first and Smith and Rahane batting well for RPS. In that match too, Smith took the chase to the last over. Also had commonality with the 2nd match; the chasing team botched up a chase which was under their control for most parts. In that game it was MI's skipper Rohit who batted well and brought his team close before falling in the last over, thereby failing to take the team over the finishing line. And Krunal Pandya's late innings (and match winning) assault in this match was very similar to Dhoni's in their last match, both in terms of nature and impact. 

The IPL rules are set for an overhaul this year and, given that CSK and RR will make a comeback next year, a lot of things are likely to change. The first decade of IPL is nicely bookended by two similar last ball finishes. What better advertisement for the edge-of-the-seat thrill that IPL promises!

IPL 2017 final: Who'll make history?

The 3rd Sunday of May will see two-time champions, Mumbai Indians (MI), attempting to do what they haven't achieved since the 1st Sunday of May last year. It was on 1st May 2016 that MI overcame Rising Pune Supergiants (RPS) at Pune and avenged their defeat earlier that season. In the 2017 season, MI and RPS have squared off thrice and on each of those occasions, RPS has defeated MI, with the last victory being the most comprehensive. So, in the finals of IPL 2017, Rohit Sharma and his men would be desperate for revenge.

RPS the bogey team for MI

MI has a 1-4 losing match record against RPS (0-3 this season). A review of MI's 2017 season reveals that they've had their fair share of close matches. But while they've clinched close victories against other opposition, the 2015 champions have come up short against their Maharashtra brethren. In each of those matches, MI has held an upper hand, only for a couple of outstanding individual performances winning the day for RPS. 

In their first match this season, first it was Tahir who put the brakes on MI after they had got off to a fantastic start. Even though lusty hitting in the final overs from Pollard and Hardik Pandya ensured that MI put up a challenging 184, they were undone by Rahane at the top (his best performance of this season; highest score at the best strike rate) and then, when MI seamers threatened to get their team over the line, they were again trumped by Smith who had to hit 2 sixes in the final over to ensure that RPS won with a ball to spare. 

In their second encounter (my blog on that match), Rahane again played a decent hand and combined nicely with Tripathi for the first wicket, to ensure that, despite the middle order wobble, RPS finished with a respectable (albeit, slightly below par) 160. MI openers got off to another good start before Stokes and then the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) brought RPS back into it. Rohit then steadied the ship, played an outstanding innings and was combining well with Pollard when Tahir struck. That proved to be a crucial blow, and Stokes and then Unadkat produced some outstanding death-over bowling to take RPS home by a mere 3 runs! Stokes, especially, was sensational - bowling with pace and hostility, and fielding with verve & vigour. He was duly adjudged the man of the match.

By virtue of being table toppers, MI and RPS clashed again in the first qualifier at Wankhede. RPS batted first and despite Rahane playing well again, all MI bowlers had the wood on the RPS batters till the 18th over. Then Dhoni produced 10 minutes of magic, helping plunder 41 runs off the final two overs and getting RPS to another defendable score of 162. MI again got off to a decent start before two unlucky dismissals combined with outstanding spin bowling from Sundar made MI sweat in the heat of Mumbai and they ultimately fell short by 20 runs. This was a very comprehensive victory and esp. sweet, given that both Stokes and Tahir had left for national duties.

Why the RPS conundrum for MI?

Rahane loves MI bowlers

This season, the Mumbai-lad Ajinkya Rahane has scored 154 runs in 3 matches against MI at a strike rate of 141. This is in sharp contrast to 184 runs in 12 matches (strike rate of 105), against all the other teams. That two of those matches against MI have come at Wankhede, hasn't helped the 2015 IPL champions. Rahane, clearly wants his home city franchise to pay, for not sticking with him!

RPS bowlers' ability to take wickets and choke run scoring

Against RPS, MI has lost 25 wickets in 3 matches (8.3 wickets per match); this again is in sharp contrast to 72 wickets lost in 13 matches against other teams (5.5 wickets per match). That ratio becomes even more skewed when one looks at the numbers when MI chase. Against RPS, MI has lost 17 wickets in 2 matches when chasing (8.5 wickets per match) while the same stat against other teams is 49 wickets in 9 matches (5.4 wickets per match). Both the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) as well as the seamers (Unadkat and Stokes) have picked up wickets at regular intervals, thereby either denying MI any upper hand or sucking out the momentum whenever MI was able to build a partnership. 

In IPL 2017, between overs 7 and 15, RPS bowlers have bowled most dot balls (321), taken most wickets (41) at the lowest economy rate (7.16) - this is clearly a stat that stands out. 

Performance of the big players

In all three matches against MI, one of the star players for RPS has stood up and helped the 2-year old franchise cross the finishing line. It was Steve Smith in the first match, Ben Stokes in the 2nd and the redoubtable Dhoni in the 3rd. Contrast this to the performance of MI's big players (Rohit Sharma, Pollard, Mitch McClenaghan). Pollard sparkled briefly with the bat in the first match but then went for 30 runs in 1.5 overs while bowling (towards the end when other bowlers went for 43 in 5 overs @8.6 RPO) and couldn't defend 13 runs off the final over. Rohit failed in the first match but was sublime in the 2nd. He had scored 58 runs off 38 balls before he fell in the final over and hence couldn't take his team over the line. In the 3rd encounter, when at 121/3 after 18 overs, RPS was staring at a less-than-150 total, McClenaghan went for 26 runs off the crucial 19th over and handed back the momentum to RPS. Each time, at the crunch moments, while RPS' star players delivered, MI's star players flattered to deceive.

What do the performance charts reveal?

There are only two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 15 run-getters this season; Parthiv and Pollard for MI, Smith and Tripathi for RPS. Amongst these, only Smith features in the top 5 (at no. 5) while MI's top run-getter, Parthiv is at no. 8. However, both teams have been served well by consistent performances from multiple batsmen - they have more batsmen scoring 150+ runs in the tournament than both SRH and KKR. Hence, unlike SRH or KKR, the finalists haven't been dependent on 1 or 2 batsmen.  

In the bowling charts, however, there are two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 5 wicket-takers; McClenaghan and Bumrah for MI, Unadkat and Tahir for RPS. In terms of economy rates, for bowlers who've bowled a minimum of 20 overs, one bowler each from MI and RPS figure in the top 5 (incidentally both offies - Harbhajan for MI; Sundar for RPS). Likewise, in the top 15, there are four bowlers each from MI and RPS (much higher than all other teams). 

It's fair to say that both the finalists boast of a bowling attack, that is frugal as well as penetrative while their batting lineups aren't dependent on 1 or 2 key players.

How can MI secure their 3rd IPL title?

Win toss, bat first

In the 2017 edition, both RPS and MI have a similar record in terms of win ratios when batting 2nd vis-a-vis batting 1st. When defending a target, MI has won 3 out of 5 matches (60% win ratio) and RPS has won 5 out of 8 matches (62.5% win ratio). On the other hand, when chasing a target, MI has won 8 out of 11 matches (72.7%) and RPS has won 5 out of 7 matches (71.4%). Hence, conventional logic would suggest that the team which wins the toss will elect to chase. However, one look at IPL finals over the years reveal, that in the high-pressure situation of the title match, teams have been more successful when defending - out of 9 nine previous editions, 6 titles have been won by the team which batted first in the finals. IPL finals have produced high scores (4 times, a 200+ target was set, including in each of the previous three years) and the teams that've won when batting first, have mostly sailed to comfortable victories. On the other hand, teams chasing have always had it close and the most comfortable victory (by KKR in 2014) came with just 3 balls to spare!

Counter the spinner threat

Washington Sundar was very effective in the Qualifier 1, taking 3 top order wickets of MI, and RPS will most likely use him again upfront. Throwing in an aggressive, tall left-hander (Krunal Pandya or, even Mitch McClenaghan) may work for MI. Even though Sundar is an offie, he doesn't spin the ball a long way, mainly relies on off-breaks and bowls on the middle-stump line. Hence, a lefty's slog / conventional sweep as well as inside out shot over covers (whenever there's spin) would be a safe and a very effective way of nullifying the Sundar-threat. The other spinner who's caused a bit of strife i.e. Imran Tahir won't play, and that should work out as an advantage for MI.

Counter the slower ones from the seamers

The RPS seamers have bowled many varieties of slower ones, esp. in the last 5 overs, and that has kept the MI power hitters (Pollard, Hardik Pandya) in check. Both Pollard and Hardik prefer hitting down the ground, without moving too much in their crease, and such attempts haven't been effective against the slower ones / knuckle balls that are bowled just short of good length. MI need an innovative striker who can also play the ramp shots, paddle sweeps, late cuts etc. Hence, the role of Ambati Rayudu becomes very crucial. He should ideally come in at no. 4 and should look to bat till the end.

Bowling combination

Leg spinners and left-arm spinners have been very successful against the predominantly right-handed batting line up of RPS. This was possibly the reason why MI chose to drop their most economical bowler, Harbhajan Singh, in the previous match and played both Karn Sharma as well as Krunal Pandya. I believe, MI will continue with this strategy for the title clash. McClenaghan, who didn't play in the Qualifier 2 against KKR due to injury, will also likely sit out. In case, he replaces Johnson, ideally Rohit would like to use him up by the 15th over. The last four overs should be shared between Bumrah, Hardik Pandya and, unless Dhoni is on the crease, Malinga. These bowlers generally deploy a judicious mix of slower ones (at different lengths) and yorkers and it's that ability to keep the batsmen guessing which is most effective, esp. when batsmen are looking to score off every ball. 

Conclusion

Both the finalists of the first IPL (2008) were banned for two years in 2015, and one of the finalists of 2017 (RPS) may not play next year. RPS would want to finish on a high by winning the tournament and thereby, making a strong case for inclusion next year (IPL rules are likely to be overhauled for the next edition). And MI, which had a very poor initiation in IPL - having finished outside top 4 in the first two editions (no. 5 in 2008, no. 7 in 2009) - recently became the only team with 100+ T20 wins. Since 2009, MI has finished in the top four in 7 out of IPL 8 editions (including four times in the top two). They would want to cap off the first decade of IPL by winning their third title and sealing the bragging rights as the most successful IPL team. Individually, Rohit Sharma is going for his 4th IPL title (won 2 with MI and 1 with Deccan Chargers) while Dhoni will be looking to win his 3rd (won 2 with CSK). If this title clash can match the drama and excitement of the 2008 final, the fans would've got their money's worth. Let's play!  

  

IPL 2017: If April was hot, May will be hotter!

A sprint is comprised of three broad phases - drive, maximum velocity, maintenance. During the drive phase, the sprinter begins in a crouched position as he bursts from a dead still position into a sprint, and strives to make use of his entire body. In the maximum velocity phase, the sprinter is in a fully erect position and achieves top speed. Lastly, in the maintenance phase, the sprinter's goal is to minimize deceleration, as he cannot maintain top speed for the entire race. 

Sprint is an apt comparison with the freneticism that IPL represents. And like in a sprint, we've seen various IPL editions go through similar phases. Some teams, like a standard sprinter, start in the best possible manner, making best use of available resources, and try to gain maximum momentum for the latter half of the tournament. Others, like Usain Bolt, start slowly but continue to build momentum as they move to the knockout stage. Every IPL has thrown up both kinds. 

For example, at the halfway stage in IPL 2016, neither of the finalists (SRH and RCB) were in the top four. In fact, the runners-up RCB were languishing at the 7th spot. They then made a strong surge, finished in the top two at the end of the league stage and eventually made the finals. On the other hand, there were the table toppers Gujarat Lions, who figured in the top 2 almost throughout the league stage but failed to make the finals. Similarly, in the 2015 edition, Mumbai Indians, having endured another poor start, were placed 7th halfway through the tournament. Like RCB in 2016, MI too made a strong surge towards the end, finishing in the top two and eventually did one better than RCB, by winning the 2015 edition. Meanwhile, the table toppers, Chennai Super Kings, were in the top two throughout the league phase and eventually made the finals.

Nearly 60% of league matches of IPL 2017 are done and dusted. By now, the well prepared teams have settled into their winning combination while the not-so-well-prepared ones are running helter skelter to find one. Or, in sprint terminology, the drive phase is over and we are in the midst of the maximum velocity phase. The points table, which was previously getting overhauled after each match, is now seeing marginal adjustments. Hence, this is a good time to take a look at those aspects, that make up the team combinations, and have impacted the league standings so far. Basically, we look at the following:

• Batting - opening combinations
• Batting strategy
• Bowling strategy
• Performance of all-rounder
• Performance of wicket-keeper

How are the teams stacked up?

A cursory glance at the points table at different stages during the 2017 edition (see below), will reveal how certain teams have maintained consistently strong performances, certain others have made a comeback of sorts and the remaining few have slipped. 

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

While Mumbai Indians (MI), Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) have remained in the top 4 throughout, Kings XI Punjab (KXIP) has slipped after a good start. Rising Pune Supergiant (RPS), which has won 4 out of their last 5 matches, is now making a strong surge. So is Gujarat Lions (GL), which seems to be finally getting its act together, with key players back in form. Delhi Daredevils (DD), despite boasting of the strongest pace bowling attack and after getting off to a good start, hasn't got its batting strategy right and this has cost them a place in the top 5. Lastly, Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) has mostly not turned up, barring a rare good performance - RCB has consistently hugged the bottom of the table.

For the purpose of the analyses below, I've divided the teams into three categories based on their performances so far (all analyses below is upto Match no. 33, featuring KXIP vs. SRH on 28th April 2017):

• Leaders - Teams with more than 50% wins and +ve NRR; MI, KKR and SRH
• Laggards - Teams with 40-50% wins or -ve NRR; RPS
• Also-rans - Teams with less than 40% wins; GL, KXIP, DD and RCB

Opening batting combination

One of the most crucial aspects of a strong batting lineup, esp. in a T20 match, is whether the opening combination is settled or not. Successful teams typically have:

• A stable opening pair
• Opening pair regularly gets a partnership of 30+ runs 
• As a result, the team manages to score 50+ in the powerplay without losing more than 2 wickets.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

MI and SRH have stuck to the same opening pair for all their matches, and they've got 30+ run partnerships on 5 occasions each. While MI has scored 53 runs on an average in the powerplays (losing 2 wickets), SRH has managed only 46 runs (losing only 1 wicket). This go slow approach by SRH seemed deliberate in the first few matches, as the normally aggressive Warner assumed the role of a sheet anchor and SRH had their hitters in Henriques, Hooda and Yuvraj following immediately after the openers. This has changed in the last few matches as they've got Williamson at no. 3, allowing both Warner and Dhawan to bat a little more aggressively.

KKR meanwhile has adopted a different strategy. With Gambhir anchoring the innings, they've given the license to the other opener to go for broke from ball 1. They started their campaign with the big-hitting Chris Lynn but once Lynn was injured, they promoted Sunil Narine up the order, and the Trinidadian has delivered big time for his team (141 runs at a strike rate of 178). KKR too has a settled opening pair now, with Gambhir and Narine opening together in the last 6 matches.

RPS has used 3 openers and their powerplay numbers are more impressive than both MI and SRH. They've got an opening partnership in excess of 30 on four occasions and their average score after powerplays is 53 (losing 1 wicket in the process). While RPS first tried Mayank Agarwal alongside Rahane, they've now settled for Rahul Tripathi instead of Agarwal. Tripathi has been one of the finds of the tournament scoring 216 runs at a strike rate of 154+, so far.

GL has tried a horses for courses approach, with McCullum as a fixture at one end and experimentation with four other openers at the other. They started with Jason Roy, then moved to Dwayne Smith, had Finch open on a couple of occasions when Smith was struggling against spinners, and then, in the last match against RCB, they sent in the left-handed Ishan Kishan to counter the threat of two leg-spinners in the RCB lineup. Finch has been used as a floater while Smith has now been moved to lower middle order. GL's run rate seems to be impressive but they are still yearning for consistency at the top.

On the other hand, KXIP has a settled opening pair in Amla and Manan Vohra with Shaun Marsh tried for one match, when Vohra was injured and Guptill tried once, when Amla was injured.

Neither of the bottom two teams have a settled opening pair. DD have tried four combinations with four openers (Samson, Billings, Tare and Karun Nair) and the opening wicket still averages only 29. Lastly, the star-studded RCB hasn't got their opening pair right, having looked at 5 different openers and 5 different opening combinations in their 8 matches! Obviously, Virat Kohli's injury hampered their opening strategy but even though he's back, RCB isn't sure whether Gayle fits into their overall scheme of things. The result has been just three partnerships of 30+ runs and an average PP score of 40. It's probably fair to say that the also-rans group has been hampered due to instability or consistency at the top.

Batting strategy

Let's now take a look at the batting strategy adopted by various teams. For this purpose, I've divided the innings into the following three phases:

1. Powerplay overs - Overs 1 to 6
2. Middle overs - Overs 7 to 16
3. Slog/end overs - Overs 17 to 20

I've then looked at the average run rates of teams during these phases to understand the strategy adopted by the various teams. Looking at the phase-wise run-rates:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

From the above charts, I believe it's more relevant to look at the first innings chart (for this purpose) since the run-rates while batting 2nd are driven by the target being chased. We can clearly witness the following two types of batting strategies from the above chart (first innings):

1. Start briskly, consolidate in the middle overs and then explode at the death - strategy followed by MI, KKR, RPS, DD and GL.
2. Start slowly, increase the run rate in the middle overs and continue to maximize run-scoring towards the death - strategy adopted by SRH, KXIP and RCB

The above strategy becomes evident if one looks at the batting orders of the respective teams.

Bowling combination

How about bowling combinations? While T20 started out as a batsman's game with bowlers playing supporting characters, over time this has changed. Champion T20 teams of today have very strong bowling line-ups and the captains generally have 6-7 bowling options. Let's look at the bowling combinations (pace and spin) that the teams have used so far in the 2017 edition.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

From the above charts, it's very clear that KKR and RCB have relied on spin much more (~45% of total balls bowled) than the pace-heavy line-ups of DD (25%), MI (31%) and SRH (33%). KKR has played Kuldeep Yadav and Sunil Narine in almost all matches and got them to bowl their full quota; plus, they've also played Piyush Chawla and Shakib Al Hasan occasionally. RCB too has relied heavily on the spin of Chahal, Negi and Badree.

On the other hand, DD has mainly played four fast bowlers (Morris, Cummins, Zaheer and now Rabada) and after playing Nadeem alongside Mishra for the first three matches, is now solely relying on Mishra as the spin option. MI too has utilized Harbhajan as the main spinner with the all-rounder Krunal Pandya playing the supporting role on a few occasions. On the other hand, SRH has completely relied on the Afghan star, Rashid Khan, as their sole spinning option (except for a couple of matches).

One look at the economy rate comparison between pace and spin (chart below) tells us that teams should look to utilize spinners a little more.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Even when comparing bowling averages or strike rates, spinners don't suffer in comparison to the pacers.

Lastly, we also look at the no. of bowlers that various teams have tried (pace and spin), subject to certain minimum criteria. One would notice that the top teams generally have a settled line-up.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

Performance of all-rounders

In order to make up for one or two bowlers having a bad day (or a bad match-up against a particular batsman who's in devastating form), most IPL captains increasingly prefer at least 6 bowlers in the line-up. This makes the role of all-rounders crucial. And these all-rounders typically contribute by scoring runs briskly and keeping the runs down while bowling (economy rates are as useful as wickets in a T20 match). I've taken a look at all-rounders across various IPL teams, applied criteria of at least 50 runs scored while batting and at least 4 overs bowled. Then I've compared the batting strike rate with the economy rate (per 100 balls) and taken the difference between the two (calling this All-Rounders' Index). Eliminating the negative ARIs i.e. where batting strike rate is less than bowling economy rate, this is what we get:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

Sunil Narine with an ARI of +67.5 is very much the standout amongst the all-rounders and is one of the primary reasons why KKR is on top of the points table. For MI, the Pandya brothers have provided incredible balance to the side. Ben Stokes has been the talisman for RPS (as was amply on display in the MI-RPS match at Wankhede). Similarly, DD's fortunes have fluctuated with the rise and fall of Chris Morris' form. In the initial stages he set the tournament on fire, bowling with pace and taking wickets upfront, and providing the late burst while batting. This enabled DD to get off to a good start but as Morris' form has dipped, so have DD's performances. Needless to say, a good all-rounder is critical to his team's fortunes.

Wicket-keepers - key to team balance 

What about wicket-keepers, I hear many of you ask! In modern cricketing terminology, a wicket-keeper, if also a capable batsman, is considered as an all-rounder. And team managements clearly demand that wicket-keepers contribute handsomely with the bat. For almost all IPL teams (except SRH), the wicket-keeper is also a key batsman - either playing in the top order (Uthappa, Parthiv, Jadhav) or coming at the back end to get some quick runs (Dhoni, Karthik, Saha and Pant). So, it's imperative that we look at their performances from a team composition perspective. For the following analysis, I've devised a composite batting metric (called batting index) that combines the run per innings (RPI; not the average) and strike rate per 100 balls. It's a product of the two parameters; so basically, if a batsman scores 40 runs in an innings at a strike rate of 90, the batter's performance is penalized as the batting index works out to 36 (40 x 0.9). Conversely, if he scored the same number of runs at a strike rate of 125, the batting index works out to a significantly better 50.  

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

From a batting perspective, Robin Uthappa has been the most outstanding performer with a batting index of 69.5 - far ahead of the competition. This too has enabled KKR to remain the front-runners in the current edition. Other notable performers include Jadhav and Karthik.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

The primary job of a keeper, however, is keeping wickets. For analyzing the keeping performance, we take a look at dismissals per innings as well as extras conceded per innings (byes which are attributable to the keeper). Here, it's the Indian test wicket-keepers (present or past) who've been especially tidy - look at the extras / innings for Parthiv, Dhoni, Karthik and Saha. In terms of dismissals / innings, Uthappa and Pant stand out, but a lot of that has to do with the type and quality of bowling line-ups that their respective teams possess.

Conclusion

In a 100 mtr sprint, most runners achieve top speed around the 60 mtr mark and they try to maintain this speed till the 80 mtr mark. It can be argued that KKR, MI and SRH are fast approaching that stage. They've ticked most of the boxes - stable opening pair in line with the batting strategy, bowlers performing their assigned roles, key all-rounder(s) identified and wicket-keeper contributing both behind, as well as, in-front of the stumps. The focus will remain on making the play-offs and possibly finishing in the top 2 (thereby securing two chances to qualify for the finals). 

On the other hand, the laggards will look to play catch up and possibly go for an all-out attack. Expect them to be more ruthless with their selections in the coming matches. They'll be less reliant on strategy, more on scrapping. And also, hopeful to do a Usain Bolt. The 8-time Olympic gold medalist is a renowned slow-starter who hits the highest velocity in the 60-80 mtr phase and then maintains this speed almost till the finishing line. Not a bad example to emulate!

IPL 2017: Pune overcome Mumbai again in another nail-biter

Rising Pune Supergiants (RPS) handed Mumbai Indians (MI) only their second defeat of IPL 2017, in a nail-biting encounter at Wankhede stadium. Remarkably, both of Mumbai's defeats have come at the hands of RPS and both these encounters went down to the last three balls. While the RPS captain, Steve Smith, helped his team chase down a stiffer target and hit the winning runs, the MI captain couldn't quite replicate that as Rohit fell in the last over. This defeat snapped MI's 6-watch winning streak and was their first defeat in 7 matches at Wankhede. With this win, RPS continued their strong surge and having secured their third successive win, are now placed in the top 4.

Toss: Karn in, Krunal out

Mumbai won the toss and Rohit Sharma had no hesitation in putting the opposition in. Crucially for MI, Krunal Pandya had to sit out due to an injury and they decided to play the leg spinner, Karn Sharma. This was slightly surprising since Karn doesn't provide the same batting proficiency as Krunal. There was a feeling that MI were a batsman short. RPS, who had aced a close chase over SRH in their previous match, felt no need to change the playing XI.

RPS batting: Aggressive Tripathy, Impressive Tiwary

Ajinkya Rahane and Rahul Tripathi started off solidly, mixing caution with some delightful strokes. In the first few overs, it was Rahane who was the aggressor with a couple of sumptuous straight drives, one each on either side of the umpire, standing out. Rohit introduced Karn Sharma in the 4th over itself and after a calm first over, both Tripathi and Rahane laid into him in his second over. That over, the last of the powerplay, yielded 11 runs and ensured that the score at the end of powerplay looked competitive (48/0). RPS continued to score at a brisk pace, taking 14 off McClenaghan's 2nd over (8th of the innings), before the spinners applied brakes on the scoring rate. Harbhajan was miserly, conceding just 16 runs off this 3 overs, while Karn Sharma was the wicket taker. He first dismissed Rahane via a top spinner, then prised out the impressive Tripathi and could've also had Smith the next ball, but Harbhajan dropped a simple catch at deep square leg. However, it didn't cost MI much as the off-spinner made amends by scalping Smith in the very next over. RPS managed to reach 126/3 after 16 overs. With Dhoni struggling with his timing and 3 of the remaining 4 overs to be bowled by Bumrah and McClenaghan, a par score was on the cards. 

Both Stokes and Dhoni were dismissed in quick succession but as he has often done this season, Manoj Tiwary batted beautifully. He took 11 off Johnson's final over (17th of the innings) and then again, 10 off the 20th over (by Bumrah) to ensure that RPS finished with a par score of 160. For RPS, Rahul Tripathi, who's been one of the finds of the season, was the most impressive batsman, scoring 45 off 31 balls (including 2 sixes) while Manoj Tiwary played a crucial cameo at the end, scoring 22 off 13 balls. For MI, despite going for 10 runs off his final over, Bumrah was the most impressive bowler, conceding less than 30 runs off his full quota and accounting for Dhoni and Tiwary. Karn Sharma, playing his first game for MI, wasn't afraid of flighting the ball and pitching it up while ripping his leg breaks, and although he went for 39 runs off his 4 overs, he snared both the openers.  

MI batting: Middle order stutters, Rohit motors along

A target of 161 wasn't daunting, esp. considering that MI chased down a target of 199 with nearly 5 overs to spare, just four days back. The hosts may have also been hoping for dew later on, given that they chose to chase. RPS started with the off-spin of Washington Sundar but despite a quiet first over, the Buttler-Parthiv duo plundered runs off the next 3 overs thereby ensuring that MI was sitting comfortably at 35/0 at the end of 4 overs, well ahead of the required run rate. The introduction of Stokes in the 5th over, however, changed the complexion of the chase. He immediately accounted for his England team-mate Buttler, who fell trying to hit a slower one. Stokes could've also had Nitesh Rana in the same over, had Manoj Tiwary moved his hands slightly forward to gobble up a low offering at 1st slip. This wicket maiden proved crucial as Smith changed his bowlers around smartly and MI lost both Rana and Parthiv, with both attempting to up the scoring rate. 

MI threw in Karn Sharma at the loss of Parthiv's wicket (at 60/3), possibly to counter the leg spin of Tahir, and the strategy seemed to work for a short while as the two Sharmas added 26 off the next 3 overs. There were a few nervy moments as Tahir had an LBW shout, off a googly, against Rohit turned down (hit outside the line of off-stump) and then Manoj Tiwary dropped his second catch of the evening, when Karn chipped a simple grab at covers. Once again, Smith turned to Stokes and once again the burly all-rounder delivered. He accounted for Karn off the first ball of his second over. At 86/4 in the 13th over, MI needed 75 off 47 balls, but they must have been confident at this juncture, given that the in-form Pollard came to the crease and Rohit looked in good touch. The Mumbai skipper was especially severe on Imran Tahir, plundering 21 runs off the leggie's 13 balls (inclusive of a six and 3 boundaries), and in the process proved to the world that he hadn't forgotten smashing leg spinners. This calculated assault meant that going into the 2nd strategic timeout, MI needed just 39 runs off the last 24 balls. 

However, as has happened quite often during this IPL, the timeout scalped a batsman immediately after resumption. Off the very first ball of the 17th over, Pollard tried to hit Tahir out of the ground but was caught at wide long-off. Hardik Pandya and Rohit took no further chances off Tahir's final over and just 4 came off that one. 35 off 18 started looking a bit uncomfortable for MI but Pandya hit Unadkat for a couple of boundaries in the 18th over, thereby bringing the target down to 24 off 12. Once again, Smith entrusted Stokes with the crucial 19th over and Stokes produced an over of the highest quality. His pinpoint fast yorkers proved tough for both Pandya and Rohit to get under, and the over cost just 7 runs. The tension was rising in the MI camp as the hosts needed 17 off the final over, to be bowled by Unadkat. 

The Final Over: Wickets, Sixes, Drama

The stage was set. The Saurashtra seamer, still only 25, last played for India four years back and has had a couple of impressive Ranji seasons since then. On the other hand, both MI batsmen have been quite adept at successfully solving such equations. Pandya had plundered 30 runs off the final over in the previous MI-RPS encounter this season (off Dinda) when MI were batting first and was also responsible for the successful chase against KKR, where he and Rana plundered 58 runs off the last 20 balls to take MI to an unbelievable victory. Rohit himself has been instrumental in a very similar victory in IPL 2009, when he took 26 runs off the final over (21 was needed) to take his then franchise, Deccan Chargers, to an astounding victory over KKR. The target in that match? 161!

19.1 - Pandya tried to smash the first ball out of the park. It was a slower one delivered on a good length and even though Pandya made a good connection, RPS' Man Friday, Ben Stokes, plucked out a brilliant catch diving forward at deep extra cover. This was the first time Pandya had been dismissed during a chase in IPL 2017. 

19.2 - The batsmen had crossed over while the catch was being taken and hence it was Rohit, who had completed his first half-century in this edition, on strike. Unadkat bowled a similar ball but this time Rohit got the measure of it and clobbered it over long-on for a 6. The equation was brought down to 11 off 4 balls. 

19.3 - The next delivery produced a critical moment in the match. Rohit moved slightly across, outside the off-stump, and Unadkat floated a slower ball fuller in length and wider of the guideline. Everybody thought it was a wide but not the umpire. He had seen the batsman move from his original stance before the ball was delivered and deemed that the ball wasn't wide enough for him to get a connection. Replays suggested that his first assumption was right but the 2nd one wasn't. Even with that shuffle, the ball was out of MI skipper's reach and should have been called a wide. So instead of a more manageable 10 off 4 balls, the equation became a more daunting 11 off 3 balls.   

19.4 - Next ball, Unadkat bowled another slower one but shortened his length considerably. Rohit tried to repeat the dose but could only manage a top edge and the skier was taken by the bowler. This was a huge wicket. The bowler hit the back of his head hard while catching that but thankfully no damage was done and he was able to continue. 11 was now needed off 2 balls. MI could only hope for a tie now (unless Unadkat bowled a no-ball or wide) and with both Rohit and Pandya dismissed, those hopes were rather slim.

19.5 - Harbhajan smoked a fuller ball outside off to deep cover and the batsmen ran for a couple, possibly praying for a couple of wides and a six off the remaining balls, to hang on to a tie. Those prayers too went unanswered as Mitch McClenaghan was run out at the bowler's end. The man responsible? Ben Stokes, who else! 10 was now needed off the final delivery and the RPS victory was now a mere formality.

19.6 - The final ball from Unadkat was a length ball and Harbhajan moved across to slog a six over wide long-on. Maximum result off the final delivery but still not enough to ensure any points for MI.

It was another close encounter between the two Maharashtra franchises and once again, RPS defeated MI by a close margin. This was also their 2nd consecutive win over MI at Wankhede. With this victory, RPS moved to the 4th spot in the points table and continued their strong revival. Mumbai must be ruing their missed opportunities but in all fairness, they were undone by the brilliance of Stokes (who was adjudged player of the match) and the calmness of Unadkat.

IPL turned 10: How has it evolved?

The Indian Premier League, which was born in 2008, has turned 10! And look at how things have changed around us - when Lalit Modi declared the tournament open on 18th April 2008, Barrack Obama was yet to become the US President, Virat Kohli was still 4 months shy of debuting for India and the Chinese economy was still growing in double digits. Lalit Modi is no longer associated with the league but during this time, IPL has grown to become one of the world's most valuable sports leagues (worth $4.2 billion and with revenue of $378m in 2016). It'll be interesting, however, to see how various on-field aspects of the game have evolved in these exciting nine years.

I've attempted to evaluate the performances, season-by-season, using tournament stats. Using this approach, we try to address the following questions:

• Are teams scoring faster now?
• What is a safe score to defend?
• Are batsmen more consistent now?
• Are bowlers bowling better now?
• Are teams evenly balanced?

1. Are teams scoring faster now?

Highest team totals

For this analysis, I've shortlisted the top 30 team scores for each season. Further, I've created separate 25-run buckets for team totals (151-175, 176-200, 201-225, 226-250, 251-275). Then, I've plotted, season-wise, the number of occurrences of team totals (or frequency) within different buckets. Further, on the right side Y axis, I've plotted the median of the top 30 scores in each season. The chart is produced below:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Surprise! Surprise! I was expecting the team totals to climb and show an upward trend. However, if one observes closely, it's clear that there's an increasing trend of more scores between 176-200 vis-a-vis 200+ scores (more orange than grey!), esp. when compared to IPL 2008 and 2010. For example, in 2008, amongst the top 30 team totals, there were 11 scores above 200 while in the last two editions, that figure has come down to 6 (in 2016) and 7 (in 2015), respectively. The median score has remained fairly stable (except for 2009) even though the highest median score was achieved in the first season itself, and has been matched twice since. IPL 2009 season is a bit of an aberration since that edition was held in South Africa (due to general elections in India) where batting conditions are relatively tougher.

Highest match aggregates  

Is the above outcome an anomaly? It'll be useful to look at a similar analysis based on match aggregates. 

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In IPL 2008 and 2010 (2009 again an exception), there were 5 and 4 instances, respectively, of match aggregates exceeding 400. This too has come down to 2 in each of the last two editions. However, the 351-400 bucket shows higher frequency in the last few years. The median match aggregate has hovered around 350.

Conclusion

Based on the above evidence, it's safe to conclude the following:

Teams are scoring more consistently between 175-200 instead of 200+. This is further demonstrated by looking at a statistical analysis of the top 50 team totals in each season. While the average score (of top 50 scores), at 185, has remained the same in IPL 2008 as well as in 2015 and 2016, the variance and standard deviation has come down in the last two seasons. The steeper normal distribution curves in IPL 2015 and 2016 clearly bear this out (comprising top 50 team totals).

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

This could be pinned down to batting strategy where teams, at the start of the innings, are now deliberately targeting 175-200 instead of taking additional risks to score 200+, believing that this score is safe to defend. This can have an impact on the team composition as well. Of course, teams will have different strategies for different venues - at Bengaluru, teams typically target 200+ while at Eden Gardens, 160-170 is considered as a good score. But alternately, its also possible that the bowlers have become adept at keeping the runs down as well as picking up wickets at regular intervals.

2. What is a safe score?

Based on empirical evidence over the last 9 IPLs, let's try to deduce a safe target when batting first. For this, we've adopted two approaches. First, we've looked at all matches where the team batting first has won with a margin of 15+ runs i.e. comfortable victories. Here's what we get:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In IPL 2008, the average target set when the team batting first won by a margin of 15 runs or more, was 193 and 12 such wins were recorded during that season. The corresponding figures for IPL 2016 were 193 runs and 11 wins. The average target across all editions is 180.

Next, we've taken those matches where the chasing team has won a close match with only 3 balls (or less) remaining. Here's how it looks:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In IPL 2008, the average target which was successfully chased down with 3 balls or less remaining, was 174 and 9 such victories were recorded in that season. The corresponding figures for IPL 2016 were 173 runs and 8 wins. The average target across seasons is 163.

Comparing this with the above figure of 180 (winning comfortably when batting first) and taking into account the 3 balls in hand, it's reasonable to assume (based on empirical evidence) that 180+ is generally a safe target when batting first. For the above analysis, abandoned matches, ties and matches by Duckworth-Lewis method have not been considered.

3. Are batsmen more consistent now? 

How about batsmen? The record for most runs in a season has been improved from 616 runs in IPL 2008 (Shaun Marsh) to 973 runs last year (Virat Kohli). While Marsh scored at a very impressive strike rate of 139.68, both Kohli and Warner (who got 848 runs in 2016) got their runs at an incredible strike rate of nearly 152 per 100 balls. While only three centuries were struck in 2008, Virat Kohli himself scored four centuries in 2016 (overall six centuries were scored). What do the numbers tell us? On a season-by-season analysis of the runs per innings (RPI is slightly different from batting average) and strike-rate (runs per 100 balls) of all batsmen who've scored 300+ runs, we get the following:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In the inaugural edition, the average runs per innings (RPI) by all the top batsmen who aggregated 300+ during the season, was 31.3 and the average strike rate was 137.3 per 100 balls. The RPI has gone up from around 29 between 2012-14, to 33.4 in IPL 2016. This is the highest across all editions. Further, the strike rate has dipped only marginally, from 137.3 in 2008 to 136.2 in 2016. Hence, it would be safe to conclude that the batsmen are managing more consistency now without compromising too much on the strike rate. Also, increasingly there are more top order batsmen in the Top 10 batsmen list than in the past.

4. Are bowlers' bowling better now?

Let's look at how bowlers' performances have evolved since IPL 2008. For this, I've taken two important parameters - economy rate and bowling strike rate (i.e. no. of balls / wicket). Bowling average has deliberately not been considered since in a T20 match, balls remaining in the innings are a more important resource vis-a-vis wickets in hand. So, I've first taken the bowlers who've taken at least 10 wickets in a season and then tweaked the economy rate computation - instead of runs conceded per over, I've considered runs conceded per 100 balls (let's call it RP100B). This change in computation thus makes it directly comparable to batsmen's strike rate. Here is what we get:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

While the RP100B had dipped to 120-125 between 2010 and 2014 editions, the figure has again risen up and is touching 131 in the last two editions. The average strike rate has, more or less, remained in the 18-20 balls / wicket range.

Further, I slice the above by bowling type i.e. pace or spin. This is how it looks like:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Over the years, except for IPL 2015, spinners have done better than pacers in keeping the runs down. On the other hand, as is the norm across formats, pacers have managed slightly better strike rates than spinners. During 2009-2014, the spinners were significantly better than the pacers in keeping the runs in check and they were close to the pacers in terms of strike rates too. This isn't surprising given that this period saw some world-class spinners operate - Warne, Kumble, Muralitharan, Harbhajan, and also saw some excellent talent emerge - Ashwin, Jadeja, Sunil Narine (before his modified action), Amit Mishra, Chahal, Axar Patel etc. Over the last couple of seasons, apart from ever-green performers like Malinga and Bravo, there's a group of seamers who've impressed - Bhubhaneshwar Kumar, Mustafizur, McClenaghan, Bumrah, Russell, Chris Morris etc.

5. Are teams evenly balanced?

One of the more remarkable and less-talked-about things with respect to IPL, is the concept of "equal purses" for all franchises. It started out as "equal auction purse" in 2008 ($5m for each team) i.e. all teams were allowed to spend upto $5m on buying players in the auction. This figure was increased to $9m in 2011. However, there was no limit on what teams could spend outside the auctions (i.e. trading players between each other). This was then further regulated in 2013 when IPL governing body stipulated an upper limit of $12.5m for the entire squad ("equal purse"). This equal purse concept has ensured a level playing field.

I've tried to analyze the competitiveness of the league for each season, using a measure called Herfindahl Index (Economics students will be aware of this concept). It's a measure of the size of firms in relation to the industry and an indicator of the amount of competition among them. HHI is an economic concept widely applied in competition law, antitrust and also technology management. It is defined as the sum of the squares of the market shares of the firms within the industry (sometimes limited to the 50 largest firms), where the market shares are expressed as fractions. The result is proportional to the average market share, weighted by market share. The results are to be interpreted as follows:

An HHI < 0.01 indicates a highly competitive industry.
An HHI < 0.15 indicates an unconcentrated industry.
An HHI 0.15 - 0.25 indicates moderate concentration.
An HHI > 0.25 indicates high concentration.

To compute IPL HHI, I've used the points garnered by a team during a season and divided by the total points available during that season (comparable to market shares). The IPL HHI is charted out below:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

The first thing that jumps out - more the number of teams, more competitive the league. In 2011, when two new teams were introduced, the HHI fell to 0.106. Similarly, in 2012 and 2013 when there were 9 teams in the league, the HHI was 0.121 and 0.125, respectively. For an 8 team format, 0.131 is the lowest HHI, achieved in 2010 and then again in 2016. It's fair to conclude, looking at these figures, that the tournament has managed to stay highly competitive over the last nine years.

Conclusion

The above is simply an ex-post analysis of IPL data over the last nine years. There are multiple ways to analyze the same data and I've tried to take a different approach as compared to the traditional methods. Some of the conclusions may appear to be intuitively obvious. Yet, the humble attempt is to see whether empirical data leads to the same conclusions.