IPL 2017 final: Who'll make history?

The 3rd Sunday of May will see two-time champions, Mumbai Indians (MI), attempting to do what they haven't achieved since the 1st Sunday of May last year. It was on 1st May 2016 that MI overcame Rising Pune Supergiants (RPS) at Pune and avenged their defeat earlier that season. In the 2017 season, MI and RPS have squared off thrice and on each of those occasions, RPS has defeated MI, with the last victory being the most comprehensive. So, in the finals of IPL 2017, Rohit Sharma and his men would be desperate for revenge.

RPS the bogey team for MI

MI has a 1-4 losing match record against RPS (0-3 this season). A review of MI's 2017 season reveals that they've had their fair share of close matches. But while they've clinched close victories against other opposition, the 2015 champions have come up short against their Maharashtra brethren. In each of those matches, MI has held an upper hand, only for a couple of outstanding individual performances winning the day for RPS. 

In their first match this season, first it was Tahir who put the brakes on MI after they had got off to a fantastic start. Even though lusty hitting in the final overs from Pollard and Hardik Pandya ensured that MI put up a challenging 184, they were undone by Rahane at the top (his best performance of this season; highest score at the best strike rate) and then, when MI seamers threatened to get their team over the line, they were again trumped by Smith who had to hit 2 sixes in the final over to ensure that RPS won with a ball to spare. 

In their second encounter (my blog on that match), Rahane again played a decent hand and combined nicely with Tripathi for the first wicket, to ensure that, despite the middle order wobble, RPS finished with a respectable (albeit, slightly below par) 160. MI openers got off to another good start before Stokes and then the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) brought RPS back into it. Rohit then steadied the ship, played an outstanding innings and was combining well with Pollard when Tahir struck. That proved to be a crucial blow, and Stokes and then Unadkat produced some outstanding death-over bowling to take RPS home by a mere 3 runs! Stokes, especially, was sensational - bowling with pace and hostility, and fielding with verve & vigour. He was duly adjudged the man of the match.

By virtue of being table toppers, MI and RPS clashed again in the first qualifier at Wankhede. RPS batted first and despite Rahane playing well again, all MI bowlers had the wood on the RPS batters till the 18th over. Then Dhoni produced 10 minutes of magic, helping plunder 41 runs off the final two overs and getting RPS to another defendable score of 162. MI again got off to a decent start before two unlucky dismissals combined with outstanding spin bowling from Sundar made MI sweat in the heat of Mumbai and they ultimately fell short by 20 runs. This was a very comprehensive victory and esp. sweet, given that both Stokes and Tahir had left for national duties.

Why the RPS conundrum for MI?

Rahane loves MI bowlers

This season, the Mumbai-lad Ajinkya Rahane has scored 154 runs in 3 matches against MI at a strike rate of 141. This is in sharp contrast to 184 runs in 12 matches (strike rate of 105), against all the other teams. That two of those matches against MI have come at Wankhede, hasn't helped the 2015 IPL champions. Rahane, clearly wants his home city franchise to pay, for not sticking with him!

RPS bowlers' ability to take wickets and choke run scoring

Against RPS, MI has lost 25 wickets in 3 matches (8.3 wickets per match); this again is in sharp contrast to 72 wickets lost in 13 matches against other teams (5.5 wickets per match). That ratio becomes even more skewed when one looks at the numbers when MI chase. Against RPS, MI has lost 17 wickets in 2 matches when chasing (8.5 wickets per match) while the same stat against other teams is 49 wickets in 9 matches (5.4 wickets per match). Both the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) as well as the seamers (Unadkat and Stokes) have picked up wickets at regular intervals, thereby either denying MI any upper hand or sucking out the momentum whenever MI was able to build a partnership. 

In IPL 2017, between overs 7 and 15, RPS bowlers have bowled most dot balls (321), taken most wickets (41) at the lowest economy rate (7.16) - this is clearly a stat that stands out. 

Performance of the big players

In all three matches against MI, one of the star players for RPS has stood up and helped the 2-year old franchise cross the finishing line. It was Steve Smith in the first match, Ben Stokes in the 2nd and the redoubtable Dhoni in the 3rd. Contrast this to the performance of MI's big players (Rohit Sharma, Pollard, Mitch McClenaghan). Pollard sparkled briefly with the bat in the first match but then went for 30 runs in 1.5 overs while bowling (towards the end when other bowlers went for 43 in 5 overs @8.6 RPO) and couldn't defend 13 runs off the final over. Rohit failed in the first match but was sublime in the 2nd. He had scored 58 runs off 38 balls before he fell in the final over and hence couldn't take his team over the line. In the 3rd encounter, when at 121/3 after 18 overs, RPS was staring at a less-than-150 total, McClenaghan went for 26 runs off the crucial 19th over and handed back the momentum to RPS. Each time, at the crunch moments, while RPS' star players delivered, MI's star players flattered to deceive.

What do the performance charts reveal?

There are only two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 15 run-getters this season; Parthiv and Pollard for MI, Smith and Tripathi for RPS. Amongst these, only Smith features in the top 5 (at no. 5) while MI's top run-getter, Parthiv is at no. 8. However, both teams have been served well by consistent performances from multiple batsmen - they have more batsmen scoring 150+ runs in the tournament than both SRH and KKR. Hence, unlike SRH or KKR, the finalists haven't been dependent on 1 or 2 batsmen.  

In the bowling charts, however, there are two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 5 wicket-takers; McClenaghan and Bumrah for MI, Unadkat and Tahir for RPS. In terms of economy rates, for bowlers who've bowled a minimum of 20 overs, one bowler each from MI and RPS figure in the top 5 (incidentally both offies - Harbhajan for MI; Sundar for RPS). Likewise, in the top 15, there are four bowlers each from MI and RPS (much higher than all other teams). 

It's fair to say that both the finalists boast of a bowling attack, that is frugal as well as penetrative while their batting lineups aren't dependent on 1 or 2 key players.

How can MI secure their 3rd IPL title?

Win toss, bat first

In the 2017 edition, both RPS and MI have a similar record in terms of win ratios when batting 2nd vis-a-vis batting 1st. When defending a target, MI has won 3 out of 5 matches (60% win ratio) and RPS has won 5 out of 8 matches (62.5% win ratio). On the other hand, when chasing a target, MI has won 8 out of 11 matches (72.7%) and RPS has won 5 out of 7 matches (71.4%). Hence, conventional logic would suggest that the team which wins the toss will elect to chase. However, one look at IPL finals over the years reveal, that in the high-pressure situation of the title match, teams have been more successful when defending - out of 9 nine previous editions, 6 titles have been won by the team which batted first in the finals. IPL finals have produced high scores (4 times, a 200+ target was set, including in each of the previous three years) and the teams that've won when batting first, have mostly sailed to comfortable victories. On the other hand, teams chasing have always had it close and the most comfortable victory (by KKR in 2014) came with just 3 balls to spare!

Counter the spinner threat

Washington Sundar was very effective in the Qualifier 1, taking 3 top order wickets of MI, and RPS will most likely use him again upfront. Throwing in an aggressive, tall left-hander (Krunal Pandya or, even Mitch McClenaghan) may work for MI. Even though Sundar is an offie, he doesn't spin the ball a long way, mainly relies on off-breaks and bowls on the middle-stump line. Hence, a lefty's slog / conventional sweep as well as inside out shot over covers (whenever there's spin) would be a safe and a very effective way of nullifying the Sundar-threat. The other spinner who's caused a bit of strife i.e. Imran Tahir won't play, and that should work out as an advantage for MI.

Counter the slower ones from the seamers

The RPS seamers have bowled many varieties of slower ones, esp. in the last 5 overs, and that has kept the MI power hitters (Pollard, Hardik Pandya) in check. Both Pollard and Hardik prefer hitting down the ground, without moving too much in their crease, and such attempts haven't been effective against the slower ones / knuckle balls that are bowled just short of good length. MI need an innovative striker who can also play the ramp shots, paddle sweeps, late cuts etc. Hence, the role of Ambati Rayudu becomes very crucial. He should ideally come in at no. 4 and should look to bat till the end.

Bowling combination

Leg spinners and left-arm spinners have been very successful against the predominantly right-handed batting line up of RPS. This was possibly the reason why MI chose to drop their most economical bowler, Harbhajan Singh, in the previous match and played both Karn Sharma as well as Krunal Pandya. I believe, MI will continue with this strategy for the title clash. McClenaghan, who didn't play in the Qualifier 2 against KKR due to injury, will also likely sit out. In case, he replaces Johnson, ideally Rohit would like to use him up by the 15th over. The last four overs should be shared between Bumrah, Hardik Pandya and, unless Dhoni is on the crease, Malinga. These bowlers generally deploy a judicious mix of slower ones (at different lengths) and yorkers and it's that ability to keep the batsmen guessing which is most effective, esp. when batsmen are looking to score off every ball. 

Conclusion

Both the finalists of the first IPL (2008) were banned for two years in 2015, and one of the finalists of 2017 (RPS) may not play next year. RPS would want to finish on a high by winning the tournament and thereby, making a strong case for inclusion next year (IPL rules are likely to be overhauled for the next edition). And MI, which had a very poor initiation in IPL - having finished outside top 4 in the first two editions (no. 5 in 2008, no. 7 in 2009) - recently became the only team with 100+ T20 wins. Since 2009, MI has finished in the top four in 7 out of IPL 8 editions (including four times in the top two). They would want to cap off the first decade of IPL by winning their third title and sealing the bragging rights as the most successful IPL team. Individually, Rohit Sharma is going for his 4th IPL title (won 2 with MI and 1 with Deccan Chargers) while Dhoni will be looking to win his 3rd (won 2 with CSK). If this title clash can match the drama and excitement of the 2008 final, the fans would've got their money's worth. Let's play!  

  

IPL 2017: Pune overcome Mumbai again in another nail-biter

Rising Pune Supergiants (RPS) handed Mumbai Indians (MI) only their second defeat of IPL 2017, in a nail-biting encounter at Wankhede stadium. Remarkably, both of Mumbai's defeats have come at the hands of RPS and both these encounters went down to the last three balls. While the RPS captain, Steve Smith, helped his team chase down a stiffer target and hit the winning runs, the MI captain couldn't quite replicate that as Rohit fell in the last over. This defeat snapped MI's 6-watch winning streak and was their first defeat in 7 matches at Wankhede. With this win, RPS continued their strong surge and having secured their third successive win, are now placed in the top 4.

Toss: Karn in, Krunal out

Mumbai won the toss and Rohit Sharma had no hesitation in putting the opposition in. Crucially for MI, Krunal Pandya had to sit out due to an injury and they decided to play the leg spinner, Karn Sharma. This was slightly surprising since Karn doesn't provide the same batting proficiency as Krunal. There was a feeling that MI were a batsman short. RPS, who had aced a close chase over SRH in their previous match, felt no need to change the playing XI.

RPS batting: Aggressive Tripathy, Impressive Tiwary

Ajinkya Rahane and Rahul Tripathi started off solidly, mixing caution with some delightful strokes. In the first few overs, it was Rahane who was the aggressor with a couple of sumptuous straight drives, one each on either side of the umpire, standing out. Rohit introduced Karn Sharma in the 4th over itself and after a calm first over, both Tripathi and Rahane laid into him in his second over. That over, the last of the powerplay, yielded 11 runs and ensured that the score at the end of powerplay looked competitive (48/0). RPS continued to score at a brisk pace, taking 14 off McClenaghan's 2nd over (8th of the innings), before the spinners applied brakes on the scoring rate. Harbhajan was miserly, conceding just 16 runs off this 3 overs, while Karn Sharma was the wicket taker. He first dismissed Rahane via a top spinner, then prised out the impressive Tripathi and could've also had Smith the next ball, but Harbhajan dropped a simple catch at deep square leg. However, it didn't cost MI much as the off-spinner made amends by scalping Smith in the very next over. RPS managed to reach 126/3 after 16 overs. With Dhoni struggling with his timing and 3 of the remaining 4 overs to be bowled by Bumrah and McClenaghan, a par score was on the cards. 

Both Stokes and Dhoni were dismissed in quick succession but as he has often done this season, Manoj Tiwary batted beautifully. He took 11 off Johnson's final over (17th of the innings) and then again, 10 off the 20th over (by Bumrah) to ensure that RPS finished with a par score of 160. For RPS, Rahul Tripathi, who's been one of the finds of the season, was the most impressive batsman, scoring 45 off 31 balls (including 2 sixes) while Manoj Tiwary played a crucial cameo at the end, scoring 22 off 13 balls. For MI, despite going for 10 runs off his final over, Bumrah was the most impressive bowler, conceding less than 30 runs off his full quota and accounting for Dhoni and Tiwary. Karn Sharma, playing his first game for MI, wasn't afraid of flighting the ball and pitching it up while ripping his leg breaks, and although he went for 39 runs off his 4 overs, he snared both the openers.  

MI batting: Middle order stutters, Rohit motors along

A target of 161 wasn't daunting, esp. considering that MI chased down a target of 199 with nearly 5 overs to spare, just four days back. The hosts may have also been hoping for dew later on, given that they chose to chase. RPS started with the off-spin of Washington Sundar but despite a quiet first over, the Buttler-Parthiv duo plundered runs off the next 3 overs thereby ensuring that MI was sitting comfortably at 35/0 at the end of 4 overs, well ahead of the required run rate. The introduction of Stokes in the 5th over, however, changed the complexion of the chase. He immediately accounted for his England team-mate Buttler, who fell trying to hit a slower one. Stokes could've also had Nitesh Rana in the same over, had Manoj Tiwary moved his hands slightly forward to gobble up a low offering at 1st slip. This wicket maiden proved crucial as Smith changed his bowlers around smartly and MI lost both Rana and Parthiv, with both attempting to up the scoring rate. 

MI threw in Karn Sharma at the loss of Parthiv's wicket (at 60/3), possibly to counter the leg spin of Tahir, and the strategy seemed to work for a short while as the two Sharmas added 26 off the next 3 overs. There were a few nervy moments as Tahir had an LBW shout, off a googly, against Rohit turned down (hit outside the line of off-stump) and then Manoj Tiwary dropped his second catch of the evening, when Karn chipped a simple grab at covers. Once again, Smith turned to Stokes and once again the burly all-rounder delivered. He accounted for Karn off the first ball of his second over. At 86/4 in the 13th over, MI needed 75 off 47 balls, but they must have been confident at this juncture, given that the in-form Pollard came to the crease and Rohit looked in good touch. The Mumbai skipper was especially severe on Imran Tahir, plundering 21 runs off the leggie's 13 balls (inclusive of a six and 3 boundaries), and in the process proved to the world that he hadn't forgotten smashing leg spinners. This calculated assault meant that going into the 2nd strategic timeout, MI needed just 39 runs off the last 24 balls. 

However, as has happened quite often during this IPL, the timeout scalped a batsman immediately after resumption. Off the very first ball of the 17th over, Pollard tried to hit Tahir out of the ground but was caught at wide long-off. Hardik Pandya and Rohit took no further chances off Tahir's final over and just 4 came off that one. 35 off 18 started looking a bit uncomfortable for MI but Pandya hit Unadkat for a couple of boundaries in the 18th over, thereby bringing the target down to 24 off 12. Once again, Smith entrusted Stokes with the crucial 19th over and Stokes produced an over of the highest quality. His pinpoint fast yorkers proved tough for both Pandya and Rohit to get under, and the over cost just 7 runs. The tension was rising in the MI camp as the hosts needed 17 off the final over, to be bowled by Unadkat. 

The Final Over: Wickets, Sixes, Drama

The stage was set. The Saurashtra seamer, still only 25, last played for India four years back and has had a couple of impressive Ranji seasons since then. On the other hand, both MI batsmen have been quite adept at successfully solving such equations. Pandya had plundered 30 runs off the final over in the previous MI-RPS encounter this season (off Dinda) when MI were batting first and was also responsible for the successful chase against KKR, where he and Rana plundered 58 runs off the last 20 balls to take MI to an unbelievable victory. Rohit himself has been instrumental in a very similar victory in IPL 2009, when he took 26 runs off the final over (21 was needed) to take his then franchise, Deccan Chargers, to an astounding victory over KKR. The target in that match? 161!

19.1 - Pandya tried to smash the first ball out of the park. It was a slower one delivered on a good length and even though Pandya made a good connection, RPS' Man Friday, Ben Stokes, plucked out a brilliant catch diving forward at deep extra cover. This was the first time Pandya had been dismissed during a chase in IPL 2017. 

19.2 - The batsmen had crossed over while the catch was being taken and hence it was Rohit, who had completed his first half-century in this edition, on strike. Unadkat bowled a similar ball but this time Rohit got the measure of it and clobbered it over long-on for a 6. The equation was brought down to 11 off 4 balls. 

19.3 - The next delivery produced a critical moment in the match. Rohit moved slightly across, outside the off-stump, and Unadkat floated a slower ball fuller in length and wider of the guideline. Everybody thought it was a wide but not the umpire. He had seen the batsman move from his original stance before the ball was delivered and deemed that the ball wasn't wide enough for him to get a connection. Replays suggested that his first assumption was right but the 2nd one wasn't. Even with that shuffle, the ball was out of MI skipper's reach and should have been called a wide. So instead of a more manageable 10 off 4 balls, the equation became a more daunting 11 off 3 balls.   

19.4 - Next ball, Unadkat bowled another slower one but shortened his length considerably. Rohit tried to repeat the dose but could only manage a top edge and the skier was taken by the bowler. This was a huge wicket. The bowler hit the back of his head hard while catching that but thankfully no damage was done and he was able to continue. 11 was now needed off 2 balls. MI could only hope for a tie now (unless Unadkat bowled a no-ball or wide) and with both Rohit and Pandya dismissed, those hopes were rather slim.

19.5 - Harbhajan smoked a fuller ball outside off to deep cover and the batsmen ran for a couple, possibly praying for a couple of wides and a six off the remaining balls, to hang on to a tie. Those prayers too went unanswered as Mitch McClenaghan was run out at the bowler's end. The man responsible? Ben Stokes, who else! 10 was now needed off the final delivery and the RPS victory was now a mere formality.

19.6 - The final ball from Unadkat was a length ball and Harbhajan moved across to slog a six over wide long-on. Maximum result off the final delivery but still not enough to ensure any points for MI.

It was another close encounter between the two Maharashtra franchises and once again, RPS defeated MI by a close margin. This was also their 2nd consecutive win over MI at Wankhede. With this victory, RPS moved to the 4th spot in the points table and continued their strong revival. Mumbai must be ruing their missed opportunities but in all fairness, they were undone by the brilliance of Stokes (who was adjudged player of the match) and the calmness of Unadkat.