IPL 2017: Pune overcome Mumbai again in another nail-biter

Rising Pune Supergiants (RPS) handed Mumbai Indians (MI) only their second defeat of IPL 2017, in a nail-biting encounter at Wankhede stadium. Remarkably, both of Mumbai's defeats have come at the hands of RPS and both these encounters went down to the last three balls. While the RPS captain, Steve Smith, helped his team chase down a stiffer target and hit the winning runs, the MI captain couldn't quite replicate that as Rohit fell in the last over. This defeat snapped MI's 6-watch winning streak and was their first defeat in 7 matches at Wankhede. With this win, RPS continued their strong surge and having secured their third successive win, are now placed in the top 4.

Toss: Karn in, Krunal out

Mumbai won the toss and Rohit Sharma had no hesitation in putting the opposition in. Crucially for MI, Krunal Pandya had to sit out due to an injury and they decided to play the leg spinner, Karn Sharma. This was slightly surprising since Karn doesn't provide the same batting proficiency as Krunal. There was a feeling that MI were a batsman short. RPS, who had aced a close chase over SRH in their previous match, felt no need to change the playing XI.

RPS batting: Aggressive Tripathy, Impressive Tiwary

Ajinkya Rahane and Rahul Tripathi started off solidly, mixing caution with some delightful strokes. In the first few overs, it was Rahane who was the aggressor with a couple of sumptuous straight drives, one each on either side of the umpire, standing out. Rohit introduced Karn Sharma in the 4th over itself and after a calm first over, both Tripathi and Rahane laid into him in his second over. That over, the last of the powerplay, yielded 11 runs and ensured that the score at the end of powerplay looked competitive (48/0). RPS continued to score at a brisk pace, taking 14 off McClenaghan's 2nd over (8th of the innings), before the spinners applied brakes on the scoring rate. Harbhajan was miserly, conceding just 16 runs off this 3 overs, while Karn Sharma was the wicket taker. He first dismissed Rahane via a top spinner, then prised out the impressive Tripathi and could've also had Smith the next ball, but Harbhajan dropped a simple catch at deep square leg. However, it didn't cost MI much as the off-spinner made amends by scalping Smith in the very next over. RPS managed to reach 126/3 after 16 overs. With Dhoni struggling with his timing and 3 of the remaining 4 overs to be bowled by Bumrah and McClenaghan, a par score was on the cards. 

Both Stokes and Dhoni were dismissed in quick succession but as he has often done this season, Manoj Tiwary batted beautifully. He took 11 off Johnson's final over (17th of the innings) and then again, 10 off the 20th over (by Bumrah) to ensure that RPS finished with a par score of 160. For RPS, Rahul Tripathi, who's been one of the finds of the season, was the most impressive batsman, scoring 45 off 31 balls (including 2 sixes) while Manoj Tiwary played a crucial cameo at the end, scoring 22 off 13 balls. For MI, despite going for 10 runs off his final over, Bumrah was the most impressive bowler, conceding less than 30 runs off his full quota and accounting for Dhoni and Tiwary. Karn Sharma, playing his first game for MI, wasn't afraid of flighting the ball and pitching it up while ripping his leg breaks, and although he went for 39 runs off his 4 overs, he snared both the openers.  

MI batting: Middle order stutters, Rohit motors along

A target of 161 wasn't daunting, esp. considering that MI chased down a target of 199 with nearly 5 overs to spare, just four days back. The hosts may have also been hoping for dew later on, given that they chose to chase. RPS started with the off-spin of Washington Sundar but despite a quiet first over, the Buttler-Parthiv duo plundered runs off the next 3 overs thereby ensuring that MI was sitting comfortably at 35/0 at the end of 4 overs, well ahead of the required run rate. The introduction of Stokes in the 5th over, however, changed the complexion of the chase. He immediately accounted for his England team-mate Buttler, who fell trying to hit a slower one. Stokes could've also had Nitesh Rana in the same over, had Manoj Tiwary moved his hands slightly forward to gobble up a low offering at 1st slip. This wicket maiden proved crucial as Smith changed his bowlers around smartly and MI lost both Rana and Parthiv, with both attempting to up the scoring rate. 

MI threw in Karn Sharma at the loss of Parthiv's wicket (at 60/3), possibly to counter the leg spin of Tahir, and the strategy seemed to work for a short while as the two Sharmas added 26 off the next 3 overs. There were a few nervy moments as Tahir had an LBW shout, off a googly, against Rohit turned down (hit outside the line of off-stump) and then Manoj Tiwary dropped his second catch of the evening, when Karn chipped a simple grab at covers. Once again, Smith turned to Stokes and once again the burly all-rounder delivered. He accounted for Karn off the first ball of his second over. At 86/4 in the 13th over, MI needed 75 off 47 balls, but they must have been confident at this juncture, given that the in-form Pollard came to the crease and Rohit looked in good touch. The Mumbai skipper was especially severe on Imran Tahir, plundering 21 runs off the leggie's 13 balls (inclusive of a six and 3 boundaries), and in the process proved to the world that he hadn't forgotten smashing leg spinners. This calculated assault meant that going into the 2nd strategic timeout, MI needed just 39 runs off the last 24 balls. 

However, as has happened quite often during this IPL, the timeout scalped a batsman immediately after resumption. Off the very first ball of the 17th over, Pollard tried to hit Tahir out of the ground but was caught at wide long-off. Hardik Pandya and Rohit took no further chances off Tahir's final over and just 4 came off that one. 35 off 18 started looking a bit uncomfortable for MI but Pandya hit Unadkat for a couple of boundaries in the 18th over, thereby bringing the target down to 24 off 12. Once again, Smith entrusted Stokes with the crucial 19th over and Stokes produced an over of the highest quality. His pinpoint fast yorkers proved tough for both Pandya and Rohit to get under, and the over cost just 7 runs. The tension was rising in the MI camp as the hosts needed 17 off the final over, to be bowled by Unadkat. 

The Final Over: Wickets, Sixes, Drama

The stage was set. The Saurashtra seamer, still only 25, last played for India four years back and has had a couple of impressive Ranji seasons since then. On the other hand, both MI batsmen have been quite adept at successfully solving such equations. Pandya had plundered 30 runs off the final over in the previous MI-RPS encounter this season (off Dinda) when MI were batting first and was also responsible for the successful chase against KKR, where he and Rana plundered 58 runs off the last 20 balls to take MI to an unbelievable victory. Rohit himself has been instrumental in a very similar victory in IPL 2009, when he took 26 runs off the final over (21 was needed) to take his then franchise, Deccan Chargers, to an astounding victory over KKR. The target in that match? 161!

19.1 - Pandya tried to smash the first ball out of the park. It was a slower one delivered on a good length and even though Pandya made a good connection, RPS' Man Friday, Ben Stokes, plucked out a brilliant catch diving forward at deep extra cover. This was the first time Pandya had been dismissed during a chase in IPL 2017. 

19.2 - The batsmen had crossed over while the catch was being taken and hence it was Rohit, who had completed his first half-century in this edition, on strike. Unadkat bowled a similar ball but this time Rohit got the measure of it and clobbered it over long-on for a 6. The equation was brought down to 11 off 4 balls. 

19.3 - The next delivery produced a critical moment in the match. Rohit moved slightly across, outside the off-stump, and Unadkat floated a slower ball fuller in length and wider of the guideline. Everybody thought it was a wide but not the umpire. He had seen the batsman move from his original stance before the ball was delivered and deemed that the ball wasn't wide enough for him to get a connection. Replays suggested that his first assumption was right but the 2nd one wasn't. Even with that shuffle, the ball was out of MI skipper's reach and should have been called a wide. So instead of a more manageable 10 off 4 balls, the equation became a more daunting 11 off 3 balls.   

19.4 - Next ball, Unadkat bowled another slower one but shortened his length considerably. Rohit tried to repeat the dose but could only manage a top edge and the skier was taken by the bowler. This was a huge wicket. The bowler hit the back of his head hard while catching that but thankfully no damage was done and he was able to continue. 11 was now needed off 2 balls. MI could only hope for a tie now (unless Unadkat bowled a no-ball or wide) and with both Rohit and Pandya dismissed, those hopes were rather slim.

19.5 - Harbhajan smoked a fuller ball outside off to deep cover and the batsmen ran for a couple, possibly praying for a couple of wides and a six off the remaining balls, to hang on to a tie. Those prayers too went unanswered as Mitch McClenaghan was run out at the bowler's end. The man responsible? Ben Stokes, who else! 10 was now needed off the final delivery and the RPS victory was now a mere formality.

19.6 - The final ball from Unadkat was a length ball and Harbhajan moved across to slog a six over wide long-on. Maximum result off the final delivery but still not enough to ensure any points for MI.

It was another close encounter between the two Maharashtra franchises and once again, RPS defeated MI by a close margin. This was also their 2nd consecutive win over MI at Wankhede. With this victory, RPS moved to the 4th spot in the points table and continued their strong revival. Mumbai must be ruing their missed opportunities but in all fairness, they were undone by the brilliance of Stokes (who was adjudged player of the match) and the calmness of Unadkat.

IPL turned 10: How has it evolved?

The Indian Premier League, which was born in 2008, has turned 10! And look at how things have changed around us - when Lalit Modi declared the tournament open on 18th April 2008, Barrack Obama was yet to become the US President, Virat Kohli was still 4 months shy of debuting for India and the Chinese economy was still growing in double digits. Lalit Modi is no longer associated with the league but during this time, IPL has grown to become one of the world's most valuable sports leagues (worth $4.2 billion and with revenue of $378m in 2016). It'll be interesting, however, to see how various on-field aspects of the game have evolved in these exciting nine years.

I've attempted to evaluate the performances, season-by-season, using tournament stats. Using this approach, we try to address the following questions:

• Are teams scoring faster now?
• What is a safe score to defend?
• Are batsmen more consistent now?
• Are bowlers bowling better now?
• Are teams evenly balanced?

1. Are teams scoring faster now?

Highest team totals

For this analysis, I've shortlisted the top 30 team scores for each season. Further, I've created separate 25-run buckets for team totals (151-175, 176-200, 201-225, 226-250, 251-275). Then, I've plotted, season-wise, the number of occurrences of team totals (or frequency) within different buckets. Further, on the right side Y axis, I've plotted the median of the top 30 scores in each season. The chart is produced below:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Surprise! Surprise! I was expecting the team totals to climb and show an upward trend. However, if one observes closely, it's clear that there's an increasing trend of more scores between 176-200 vis-a-vis 200+ scores (more orange than grey!), esp. when compared to IPL 2008 and 2010. For example, in 2008, amongst the top 30 team totals, there were 11 scores above 200 while in the last two editions, that figure has come down to 6 (in 2016) and 7 (in 2015), respectively. The median score has remained fairly stable (except for 2009) even though the highest median score was achieved in the first season itself, and has been matched twice since. IPL 2009 season is a bit of an aberration since that edition was held in South Africa (due to general elections in India) where batting conditions are relatively tougher.

Highest match aggregates  

Is the above outcome an anomaly? It'll be useful to look at a similar analysis based on match aggregates. 

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In IPL 2008 and 2010 (2009 again an exception), there were 5 and 4 instances, respectively, of match aggregates exceeding 400. This too has come down to 2 in each of the last two editions. However, the 351-400 bucket shows higher frequency in the last few years. The median match aggregate has hovered around 350.

Conclusion

Based on the above evidence, it's safe to conclude the following:

Teams are scoring more consistently between 175-200 instead of 200+. This is further demonstrated by looking at a statistical analysis of the top 50 team totals in each season. While the average score (of top 50 scores), at 185, has remained the same in IPL 2008 as well as in 2015 and 2016, the variance and standard deviation has come down in the last two seasons. The steeper normal distribution curves in IPL 2015 and 2016 clearly bear this out (comprising top 50 team totals).

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

This could be pinned down to batting strategy where teams, at the start of the innings, are now deliberately targeting 175-200 instead of taking additional risks to score 200+, believing that this score is safe to defend. This can have an impact on the team composition as well. Of course, teams will have different strategies for different venues - at Bengaluru, teams typically target 200+ while at Eden Gardens, 160-170 is considered as a good score. But alternately, its also possible that the bowlers have become adept at keeping the runs down as well as picking up wickets at regular intervals.

2. What is a safe score?

Based on empirical evidence over the last 9 IPLs, let's try to deduce a safe target when batting first. For this, we've adopted two approaches. First, we've looked at all matches where the team batting first has won with a margin of 15+ runs i.e. comfortable victories. Here's what we get:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In IPL 2008, the average target set when the team batting first won by a margin of 15 runs or more, was 193 and 12 such wins were recorded during that season. The corresponding figures for IPL 2016 were 193 runs and 11 wins. The average target across all editions is 180.

Next, we've taken those matches where the chasing team has won a close match with only 3 balls (or less) remaining. Here's how it looks:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In IPL 2008, the average target which was successfully chased down with 3 balls or less remaining, was 174 and 9 such victories were recorded in that season. The corresponding figures for IPL 2016 were 173 runs and 8 wins. The average target across seasons is 163.

Comparing this with the above figure of 180 (winning comfortably when batting first) and taking into account the 3 balls in hand, it's reasonable to assume (based on empirical evidence) that 180+ is generally a safe target when batting first. For the above analysis, abandoned matches, ties and matches by Duckworth-Lewis method have not been considered.

3. Are batsmen more consistent now? 

How about batsmen? The record for most runs in a season has been improved from 616 runs in IPL 2008 (Shaun Marsh) to 973 runs last year (Virat Kohli). While Marsh scored at a very impressive strike rate of 139.68, both Kohli and Warner (who got 848 runs in 2016) got their runs at an incredible strike rate of nearly 152 per 100 balls. While only three centuries were struck in 2008, Virat Kohli himself scored four centuries in 2016 (overall six centuries were scored). What do the numbers tell us? On a season-by-season analysis of the runs per innings (RPI is slightly different from batting average) and strike-rate (runs per 100 balls) of all batsmen who've scored 300+ runs, we get the following:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In the inaugural edition, the average runs per innings (RPI) by all the top batsmen who aggregated 300+ during the season, was 31.3 and the average strike rate was 137.3 per 100 balls. The RPI has gone up from around 29 between 2012-14, to 33.4 in IPL 2016. This is the highest across all editions. Further, the strike rate has dipped only marginally, from 137.3 in 2008 to 136.2 in 2016. Hence, it would be safe to conclude that the batsmen are managing more consistency now without compromising too much on the strike rate. Also, increasingly there are more top order batsmen in the Top 10 batsmen list than in the past.

4. Are bowlers' bowling better now?

Let's look at how bowlers' performances have evolved since IPL 2008. For this, I've taken two important parameters - economy rate and bowling strike rate (i.e. no. of balls / wicket). Bowling average has deliberately not been considered since in a T20 match, balls remaining in the innings are a more important resource vis-a-vis wickets in hand. So, I've first taken the bowlers who've taken at least 10 wickets in a season and then tweaked the economy rate computation - instead of runs conceded per over, I've considered runs conceded per 100 balls (let's call it RP100B). This change in computation thus makes it directly comparable to batsmen's strike rate. Here is what we get:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

While the RP100B had dipped to 120-125 between 2010 and 2014 editions, the figure has again risen up and is touching 131 in the last two editions. The average strike rate has, more or less, remained in the 18-20 balls / wicket range.

Further, I slice the above by bowling type i.e. pace or spin. This is how it looks like:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Over the years, except for IPL 2015, spinners have done better than pacers in keeping the runs down. On the other hand, as is the norm across formats, pacers have managed slightly better strike rates than spinners. During 2009-2014, the spinners were significantly better than the pacers in keeping the runs in check and they were close to the pacers in terms of strike rates too. This isn't surprising given that this period saw some world-class spinners operate - Warne, Kumble, Muralitharan, Harbhajan, and also saw some excellent talent emerge - Ashwin, Jadeja, Sunil Narine (before his modified action), Amit Mishra, Chahal, Axar Patel etc. Over the last couple of seasons, apart from ever-green performers like Malinga and Bravo, there's a group of seamers who've impressed - Bhubhaneshwar Kumar, Mustafizur, McClenaghan, Bumrah, Russell, Chris Morris etc.

5. Are teams evenly balanced?

One of the more remarkable and less-talked-about things with respect to IPL, is the concept of "equal purses" for all franchises. It started out as "equal auction purse" in 2008 ($5m for each team) i.e. all teams were allowed to spend upto $5m on buying players in the auction. This figure was increased to $9m in 2011. However, there was no limit on what teams could spend outside the auctions (i.e. trading players between each other). This was then further regulated in 2013 when IPL governing body stipulated an upper limit of $12.5m for the entire squad ("equal purse"). This equal purse concept has ensured a level playing field.

I've tried to analyze the competitiveness of the league for each season, using a measure called Herfindahl Index (Economics students will be aware of this concept). It's a measure of the size of firms in relation to the industry and an indicator of the amount of competition among them. HHI is an economic concept widely applied in competition law, antitrust and also technology management. It is defined as the sum of the squares of the market shares of the firms within the industry (sometimes limited to the 50 largest firms), where the market shares are expressed as fractions. The result is proportional to the average market share, weighted by market share. The results are to be interpreted as follows:

An HHI < 0.01 indicates a highly competitive industry.
An HHI < 0.15 indicates an unconcentrated industry.
An HHI 0.15 - 0.25 indicates moderate concentration.
An HHI > 0.25 indicates high concentration.

To compute IPL HHI, I've used the points garnered by a team during a season and divided by the total points available during that season (comparable to market shares). The IPL HHI is charted out below:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

The first thing that jumps out - more the number of teams, more competitive the league. In 2011, when two new teams were introduced, the HHI fell to 0.106. Similarly, in 2012 and 2013 when there were 9 teams in the league, the HHI was 0.121 and 0.125, respectively. For an 8 team format, 0.131 is the lowest HHI, achieved in 2010 and then again in 2016. It's fair to conclude, looking at these figures, that the tournament has managed to stay highly competitive over the last nine years.

Conclusion

The above is simply an ex-post analysis of IPL data over the last nine years. There are multiple ways to analyze the same data and I've tried to take a different approach as compared to the traditional methods. Some of the conclusions may appear to be intuitively obvious. Yet, the humble attempt is to see whether empirical data leads to the same conclusions.

"Sun Shines" brightly on Federer

"The comeback is over", declared Roger Federer after his win over Rafael Nadal in the Miami Open final. Many would disagree with this assessment - they believe that moment had already arrived a couple of months back in Melbourne. However, what cannot be disputed is the grit and resilience displayed by the 18-slam winner over the last three weeks. At Indian Wells, the elegant Swiss didn't drop a set, was nearly impenetrable on serve (dropping serve just once) and breezed through the entire tournament without breaking a sweat (see my blog). In hot and humid Miami, things were much tougher though. Federer came through a gruelling 4th round encounter against Bautista Agut in two tie-breaks, had to save two match points against Berdych in the quarters (3rd set tie-break) and then in the semis, managed to overcome the red-hot Kyrgios in 3 very tight tie-break sets in a match that is already being billed as the match-of-the-year. In comparison, the final against his old nemesis, seemed like a cakewalk.

Road to the finals

R16 vs. Roberto Bautista Agut - 1st stiff challenge since Dubai

Coming through a tough draw, Federer dropped 2 sets and had to endure 7 tie-breaks, en-route to the final. His first real challenge didn't come, as was expected, from Del Potro in the 3rd round (6-3, 6-4) but from the 14th-seed, Roberto Bautista Agut in the next round. The Spaniard had overcome the impressive Sam Querrey in the previous round and matched Federer shot-for-shot in the pre-quarters. He first successfully fought-off three consecutive break points in his first service game and then broke Federer at 4-4 to earn the opportunity to serve out the first set. Unfortunately, nerves got the better of him as Federer upped the ante. The Spaniard quickly went down 0-40 and was broken on love, when he double-faulted. The set ultimately went to a tie-break and saw Federer rushing to the net on decisive moments to clinch the breaker, 7-5. The Indian Wells champion broke in the very first game of the 2nd set but the tenacious Spaniard broke back immediately to level terms. With Federer's formidable first serve as well as forehand misfiring on more than a few occasions, and Bautista Agut continuing to play solidly from both wings, the 2nd set too went to a tie-breaker. The Swiss again favoured the net on decisive moments and won the breaker easily (7-4) to take the set and match. Overall, it was a scratchy performance by Federer, putting only 49% of first serves in, making 32 unforced errors and converting only 2 of 10 break point opportunities. However, he continued to play aggressively, came to the net often, hit 30 winners overall and came through in nearly two hours.

QF vs. Tomas Berdych - saved two match points

Federer's next opponent was Tomas Berdych, who hadn't dropped a set till then, and even though the no. 4 seed held a 17-6 head-to-head advantage over the tall Czech and had demolished him in straight sets at the Australian Open 2017, the Swiss knew that he had to fire from the outset. That mental alertness showed as he broke Berdych in the very first game of the match (the first time Berdych was broken in the tournament) and snuffed out a break-point on his own serve to consolidate the break. Both players then held serve easily for their next couple of service games, with their forehands inflicting more damage. In the 7th game however, Federer increased the tempo on Berdych's serve. From 15-0 down, Federer unleashed the full array of strokes - first hitting a forehand down-the-line winner, then ripping a backhand cross-court winner, then hitting an inside-out forehand cross-court winner to bring up two break points, and finally, going up a 2nd break by employing a delicious, loopy, backhand dropshot winner that rendered Berdych unsure, flat-footed and motionless. Federer served out the first set by sending an ace down the middle, taking the set 6-2. This demolition job looked very similar to their 3rd round encounter Down Under where Federer ran away with a 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 win. However, Berdych was in no mood to let history repeat itself. He began serving huge, used a judicious mix of power and spin from both wings, and started finding angles as well as depth on the court, to keep Federer at bay. Federer himself was playing at a decent level but Berdych's level, esp. on the return games, had gone up several notches. Finally, the Czech broke his opponent's serve in the 8th game and then made a few brilliant forays to the net on his own service game, to take the 2nd set 6-3, thereby leveling the match.

The early part of set 3 was very entertaining with both players playing deep & aggressive, making lovely half-volley pickups from the baseline, and generally committing fewer unforced errors. However, in the 6th game, Federer drew first blood, finally converting his 4th break point of the set as Berdych made a few unforced errors trying to hit big on the forehand side. Then, serving for the match at 5-3, it was Federer's turn to make unforced errors - first an error in judgement followed by one in execution - as he was broken to love. In the next game, he had a match point on Berdych's serve at 30-40 but Berdych quickly erased that by a huge first serve and went on to hold to level the 3rd set at 5-5. The set, inevitably, moved on to a tie-break and Berdych, who was hitting crisp winners from both wings, had a slight upper hand. He clinched the first mini-break but Federer came back strongly, winning the next two points on Berdych's serve. Berdych got the mini-break back immediately as Federer double-faulted, and then he forced Federer to hit a backhand long at 4-4 to earn an opportunity to serve out the match. An amazing backhand down-the-line winner brought up two match points for Berdych (6-4) but then he netted a forehand and Federer followed up with two huge serves to go ahead 7-6. Down match point, Berdych committed a double fault to bring the curtains down on a topsy-turvy, but highly entertaining match. Both players hit 37 winners apiece but in a game of wafer-thin margins, Federer committed fewer unforced errors (22 to Berdych's 27) and got out of jail in another 2-hour battle.    

SF vs. Nick Kyrgios - three tie-breakers

For the 2nd time in exactly two weeks, two of the hottest players of 2017 faced up to each other. Federer and Kyrgios were supposed to play a highly anticipated quarter-final at Indian Wells (see my blog) before the Aussie had to pull out due to food-poisoning. Both players play a similar brand of attacking, first-strike tennis by taking the ball early. Both came off tight QF encounters and everybody was expecting a high-octane match with short points decided by ample dozes of winners and unforced errors. What we got, instead, was a match of the highest quality.

Federer, as is his wont, was off the blocks quickly, holding serve easily and putting pressure on Kyrgios' serve. He earned three break points in the first two return games, set up by a slew of exquisite winners, but couldn't convert any of them as Kyrgios' huge serve came in handy at the right moments. Having survived these nervy moments, Kyrgios started getting more confident. He comfortably held in the 6th game and broke Federer in the 7th game, aided by a couple of sumptuous backhands. While Kyrgios consolidated his break via an impressive service game to go up 5-3, Federer was clearly struggling to hold in the crucial 9th game. He was thrice taken to deuce but managed to hold his serve. With Kyrgios' serve looking overwhelming, the first set looked like a few shots away. Instead, Federer played an incredible return game, mixing offence with defence, forcing Kyrgios into errors and breaking back to level things up, at 5-5. He even held a set point on Kyrgios' serve at 30-40, 6-5 but the Australian again came up with huge deliveries to take the set to a tie-break. The pair exchanged a couple of mini-breaks early on but some audacious play by Federer on 5-5, helped him secure another set point; this time on his serve. He was to be denied when he shot wide while trying to rip a backhand down-the-line. After winning a couple of points each on serve, Kyrgios secured another mini-break to go up 9-8 and gain an opportunity to serve on set point (his 2nd of the set). However, Federer was to deny him again through a magical backhand winner down-the-line. Then, Kyrgios tried to go for extra on his second serve and committed a double fault to hand Federer a 4th set point opportunity and this time, Federer clinched it to go one set up (11-9 in the tie-break).

The first 6 service games in the 2nd set were routine holds with no break point opportunities for either player, and featured four love-holds as well as a tweener by Kyrgios. Then in the 7th game, Federer secured two break points but was unable to convert either of them as the Aussie held on. This seemed like a minor aberration as normal services were restored thereafter, with both players comfortably holding their serves. At 5-5, Federer tried to force the issue on the Aussie's serve through two remarkable backhand winners, but Kyrgios' serve bailed him out again. Federer meanwhile had no such troubles on his serve and lost just 5 points on his serve throughout the 2nd set. A tie-breaker followed, the 2nd of this match and the 5th consecutive one that these guys have played! Unlike the 1st set, both guys started off soundly on their serves. The Swiss maestro was the first to break away, playing aggressively and forcing the error, to go up 5-4 with two chances on his serve to close out the match. Kyrgios got the crucial mini-break back by employing an amazing forehand down-the-line winner, hit while back-pedaling to a deep ball on his backhand corner. Federer held a match point at 6-5 on Kyrgios' serve but failed to capitalize as his backhand slice landed slightly long. His next match point came at 8-7 but shockingly, he dumped an 88 mph second serve return at the bottom of the net. Some excellent serving by the Aussie from thereon, ensured that he won the tie-break 11-9 and leveled the match.

If the Swiss champ was disappointed at missing out on the opportunities in the 2nd set, it clearly didn't show as he held serve comfortably in the 3rd set too. He got a look-in on Kyrgios' serve in the 4th game, producing exceptional tennis but the Aussie matched him stroke-for-stroke and held on. The pattern would repeat in the 10th game as Federer forced a deuce but couldn't break his opponent's resolve or his serve. His own service remained solid and he dropped just 6 points on his serve in the 3rd set. The pair threw everything at each other - huge serves, forehand drives, backhand slices, serve and volley, drop shots - but neither could surge ahead and in time, the inevitable tie-break arrived. The two-time Miami champion started the tie-break with a moment of magic - an insane backhand half-volley pickup that was hit down-the-line to successfully pass the advancing Kyrgios. Nonetheless, it was the youngster who won the first mini-break when Federer went wide with his forehand. Kyrgios had an opportunity to serve out the match at 5-4 but he was first undone a deep backhand from Federer that he swatted out and then, shockingly, he served a double fault to hand a 3rd match point to Federer. The Swiss was in no mood to let that one go and produced a big first serve out wide to force a backhand error and wrap up the match in 3 hours and 10 minutes. It was a stunning match, played at a very high level throughout - Federer outhit Kyrgios in the winners department (54 vs. 38) and crucially, in a matchup between big servers, won more 1st serve return points (25% vs. 15%).

Grand Finale - Fedal XXXVII

As compared to Federer, Nadal had a relatively easier path to the finals. After astonishingly losing the first set 6-0 against Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 3rd round, Rafa went from strength to strength. He didn't lose another set leading up to the finals, and his most impressive victory came over the in-form Jack Sock in the quarter-finals - he outplayed the 13th seed American, 6-2, 6-3. Having spent considerably less time on court than his arch rival, and given the slowish court speed at Miami, many would've considered Nadal as the favourite going in to this 3rd Federer-Nadal meeting of 2017. 

Federer's serve was under pressure in the first game of the match, and like their Indian Wells encounter, Nadal earned two break point opportunities. But the Swiss erased both those opportunities via a persistent, attacking game plan - hitting a forehand winner to end a 15 shot rally on the first one, and then advancing to the net to cut off a backhand volley & snuff out the second one. The next two games went off smoothly with both players holding their serves comfortably. Nadal had clearly come out with a more aggressive game plan, ripping his double-handed backhand flat and cross-court on most occasions. Both players were going hammer and tongs and this set the tone for the next five games in the opening set. There were five break point opportunities over the next four games but neither player could capitalize. It was almost like the initial rounds of a heavyweight boxing bout where both boxers throw enough jabs but refrain from landing a decisive uppercut. Then, in the 8th game, Nadal's dogged resistance was finally broken. After saving two more break points in the game, Nadal couldn't cope up with Federer's ferocious forehand. The Swiss set up his 3rd break point of the game (and 6th of the set) through a forehand cross-court return winner and followed that up with an inside out forehand drive, that had Nadal scampering to his forehand corner and dumping a weak response into the net, to secure the decisive break. Federer then held on comfortably to win the first set, 6-3.

The Aussie Open finalist pair started the 2nd set serving confidently and faced no hurdles in the first 6 games. In fact, Nadal just lost three points on his serve in his first 3 service games while Federer lost none! Then, in the 7th game, Federer started tightening the screws. He got his first break point of the set thanks to an explosive backhand drive. The Spaniard quickly wiped that out through an intelligent drop shot followed by a forehand volley winner. And even though he presented Federer with another break point opportunity in that game, the Swiss couldn't take advantage and Nadal held on. The pumped up Spaniard then got his first two points on Federer's serve (in the set) but couldn't go any further as Federer held to 30. In the next game, Federer again started applying pressure. At 30-30, Federer got slightly lucky as his backhand caught the tape and had Nadal scrambling forward. The weak response from the Spaniard was met by a very intelligent lob deep into the backhand corner to bring up another break point. This time Federer was not letting it go, his backhand down-the-line service return catching Rafa off-guard and forcing him to hit long. Serving for the championship at 5-4, Federer started with a double-fault. Then, as if to make up, he finished a 17-shot rally with a bit of Fed magic - a spectacular backhand half-volley pickup winner directed down-the-line, from the baseline. At 30-30, he produced another one to bring up match point - an outrageous inside out forehand cross-court winner. A huge serve on match point was enough to draw an error from Rafa and secure his 14th career victory over the Spaniard.  

Although the final never reached the dizzying heights of the previous two rounds, Federer did enough to win, 6-3, 6-4. He hit 29 winners to Nadal's 15 and even made fewer unforced errors (19 to 23). Crucially, Federer converted 2 out of 9 break point opportunities while Nadal couldn't convert any of the 4 opportunities he got.

Third Sunshine Double

By winning his 3rd Miami title (and having won Indian Wells a couple of weeks back), Roger Federer completed his 3rd Sunshine Double, eleven years after his previous one. This was also his 3rd straight victory over Nadal in 2017 (4th consecutive overall) as well as his 3rd tournament victory of this year. The tournament victory also marked his 26th ATP Masters 1000 title and 91st tour-level tournament overall. His ATP ranking has improved to no. 4 (from no. 17 at the beginning of Australian Open this year) and he's currently leading the singles Race to London. The Swiss, at a ripe of age of 35, has a realistic chance of becoming world no. 1 again. However, he's decided not to rush into things and is likely to skip the entire clay court season (except for the French Open), in order to focus on Wimbledon, the US Open and the hard-court season. His 19-1 start to the year is his best since 2006 i.e. around the time when he was winning everything in sight (except French Open) and the year in which he racked up an incredible 92-5 season record. He's unlikely to match that in 2017. However, since these 19 wins include a 3-0 record against Nadal, April 2017 may just feel more pleasant than April 2006!

Classy India overcome tenacious Australia

In the end, India's all-round class proved too much for Australia. Till Day 2 in Dharamsala, Australia competed on equal terms, never let India run away and put enough pressure through their tenacity and resolve. This was best exemplified by their bowling performance on Day 2 - didn't allow India to score quickly, and picked up crucial wickets in the top and middle order. Then, on Day 3, it all came apart. Almost as if, the Aussie dam made up of resolve & grit couldn't hold up any more as India's superior class burst through.

Match recap

Australia won a very important toss and elected to bat. While Smith's men were unchanged from the last match (see my blog on Ranchi test), India made two changes. With Kohli injured, India chose to hand a debut to "chinaman bowler", Kuldeep Yadav. Further, given the likelihood that the ball would swing, India opted to replace Ishant Sharma with Bhuvneshwar Kumar. The changes meant that India went into the series decider with five bowlers i.e. a batsman short. 

Australia 1st innings

Bhuvneshwar Kumar started to swing the new ball immediately and could've had Warner off the first ball, but Karun Nair dropped a slightly tough chance at 3rd slip. Umesh got Renshaw with a beauty in his first over, but then Smith and Warner launched a very aggressive partnership. Smith especially looked in sublime form and punished both the seamers. The spin duo of Ashwin and Jadeja put some brakes on the run-rate but both Smith and Warner looked largely untroubled as Australia galloped to 131-1 at lunch. The match completely turned in the post-lunch session. The Indian captain, Rahane, continued with Kuldeep Yadav after lunch (he was introduced just before lunch) and the debutante's left-arm chinaman completely bamboozled the Australian middle-order. He first took out Warner with a flipper (caught at slip), then foxed Handscomb by a flighted chinaman which bowled him through the gate and then out-thought Maxwell by a fast googly which zipped through the surface and took out his off-stump. In between, Marsh fell to a loose shot, caught behind off the bowling of Umesh Yadav. Suddenly, at 178-5 having lost 4 wickets for 34 runs, Australia were under tremendous pressure and understandably, Smith became very circumspect. He eventually scored his 3rd hundred of the series and Rahane knew that the Aussie skipper had the ability to combine effectively with the lower order and put up a huge 1st innings total. He introduced Ashwin before tea and the tall off-spinner prized out Smith for 111. Australia went to tea at 208-6, adding just 77 runs during the session and losing 5 wickets in the process. Wade and Cummins tried hard with Wade specifically, having little problems dealing with Kuldeep Yadav. Wade went on to score a well made half-century but eventually, Australia were all out for 300, well short of the score they had in sights at lunch. For India, all the bowlers picked up at least 1 wicket with Kuldeep Yadav being the star, picking up 4 wickets. 

India 1st innings

Unlike Australia, India started slowly, reined in no doubt, by tight Aussie bowling. Hazlewood got rid of Vijay very early, and that brought together India's most prolific pair of this series. KL Rahul and Pujara again combined well, with the in-form Rahul completing his 5th half-century of this series. However, soon after reaching his half-century, Rahul's concentration wavered as he played a few loose shots and was eventually bounced out by Pat Cummins. Rahul and Pujara put on 87 for the second wicket. While Cummins was hostile, the Aussie spinners were not looking penetrative. However, the pitch offered bounce and soon enough, Lyon started to find his groove. Immediately after tea, Lyon accounted for Pujara (who had reached another half-century) as the extra bounce generated by the overspin, got the bat & pad, and lobbed to short-leg. Karun Nair didn't last long either, as he got out to Lyon in a similar fashion. Rahane and Ashwin put together a fifty-partnership before Lyon struck again. He took out both Rahane and Ashwin in quick succession, and India were on the backfoot, having lost the last 5 wickets for 113 runs. With Saha and Jadeja new to the crease, and India still 79 runs behind, Australia sensed an opportunity to take a sizable first innings lead. They took the 2nd new ball and were immediately presented with an opportunity. Cummins had Saha edging to an out-swinger but Renshaw dropped a fairly straightforward catch. This was his second drop of the match (he had dropped Rahul earlier) and one that would prove decisive in the context of the match. Like in Ranchi, the 7th wicket partnership proved match-turning for India. The pair added 96 runs for the 7th wicket before Jadeja was dismissed for a well made 63. India eventually got all out for 332, a lead of 32 on a pitch that was rapidly deteriorating. Lyon took a 5-wicket haul and looked at his most dangerous since Day 1 in Bengaluru.

Australia crumble, India rumble

India's lead wasn't substantial and Australia would've been confident of quickly wiping that off. Instead, they were greeted by India's best all-round bowling performance of the entire season. Both Umesh Yadav and Bhuvneshwar Kumar were very hostile to begin with, bowling at high pace, swinging the new ball as well as bowling nasty bouncers. Even though Karun Nair let-off Warner in the slips again, it didn't prove costly for India as the seamers got rid of both the openers, as well as the batting mainstay, Steve Smith, before Australia could even erase India's lead. Maxwell and Handscomb then led a min-revival as they put on 55 for the 4th wicket. Both Ashwin and Jadeja, however, were getting enough assistance from the pitch and causing problems for both Maxwell as well as Handscomb. Finally, just before the tea interval, Ashwin forced Handscomb to nick a straighter delivery to 1st slip and in the very next over, Jadeja got Marsh caught at short leg. By then, Australia had lost 5 wickets and were ahead by only 60. Maxwell was holding fort from the other end and had reached an aggressive 45, before he padded up to an off-break from Ashwin and was adjudged LBW. That finally broke the back of the Aussie resistance. They eventually managed 137, setting India a target of 106. Ashwin, Jadeja and Umesh Yadav, each picked up 3 wickets.

A target barely crossing 100 was never going to test this Indian team, given that the pitch was still good for batting. KL Rahul got another half century (his 6th 50 in 7 innings in this series) and even though, Vijay and Pujara departed early, an aggressive Rahane ensured that win was achieved quickly and without any further hiccups. India won the match by 8 wickets and the series 2-1. The series win ensured that India regained the Border-Gavaskar trophy and also made India the holder of test trophies against all test playing nations simultaneously (only the 3rd team ever to achieve this). Ravindra Jadeja, with 127 runs (63 in this match) and 25 wickets (4 wickets in this match) in the series, was adjudged as the Man of the Match and Man of the Series. India's gamble of playing five bowlers worked and the debutante, Kuldeep Yadav, picked up four crucial wickets in the first innings.

In the end, India just had too much firepower, too much class for Australia. Like in Bengaluru (see my blog), Australia lost the match due to a poor batting performance in their 2nd innings. Ultimately, they needed someone other than Smith to produce a gritty batting performance (like Handscomb and Marsh did in Ranchi). India finished their 2016-17 test season with 10 wins, 2 draws and just 1 loss - joint 2nd for most test wins in a season. And though they dominated both New Zealand and England, this victory against the gritty Aussies would taste the sweetest!

    

Vintage Federer looking to secure 3rd Sunshine Double in Miami

As the tennis bandwagon traveled from the deserts of California to the beaches of Florida, one question doing the rounds was whether Roger Federer can follow-up his victory at Indian Wells with a title win at Miami. This Sunshine Double i.e. winning Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back, that completes the spring hardcourt season in North America, is one of the toughest to achieve - only 7 players ever have achieved this. The list includes Federer, who along with Djokovic, is the only player to have achieved this more than once. So, can Federer round-off the early hardcourt season by winning the first three major tournaments of 2017?

Indian Wells finals

Federer capped a wonderful week with a straight sets victory over compatriot and friend, Stan Wawrinka, to clinch his 5th Indian Wells title. He won the prestigious tournament without dropping a set throughout the course of the tournament. After dominating Nadal, Federer got slightly lucky when the in-form Kyrgios withdrew before their quarter-final encounter, citing food poisoning. With the Federer backhand firing the way it was against Nadal, the Jack Sock challenge in the semis was overcome in straight sets too. This set up an exciting encounter with Wawrinka, their 2nd this year.

The two Swiss giants went toe-to-toe in the first few games. Federer was off-the-blocks in a hurry, hitting 4 crisp winners in the very first game of the match. Wawrinka kept pace through some heavy hitting esp. on the forehand side. Both players were serving well and none of them faced any break-points in the first 9 games of the set. At 4-5, 30-15, a Wawrinka first serve (out wide) was called out and while Wawrinka didn't challenge that decision, the hawk-eye later suggested that the ball had just clipped the side-line. This proved crucial as Federer won the next three points, hitting huge forehands and mixing his pace & spin on backhands, to take the first set 6-4. Overall, Federer lost just four points on his serve throughout the set, hit nine winners and converted the only break point opportunity he got.

Wawrinka came out firing in the 2nd set, hitting three blistering forehand winners to break Federer in the opening game. This was the first (and only) time Federer's serve was broken during the tournament. On his serve in the next game, Wawrinka was down a break point after Federer hit a forehand down-the-line return winner. At break point, Wawrinka's approach shot was called out. This time, the US Open champion challenged that decision and the hawk-eye overturned the umpire's decision. Federer earned another break point opportunity in that game but Wawrinka held firm and consolidated his break to go up 2-0. It may have seemed that Wawrinka had turned a corner and had done enough to win the 2nd set, thereby taking the match into the decider. Federer however, was determined to make a comeback and ready to change tactics to mount one. He went on to win his next service game very comfortably by repeatedly coming into the net. And in the next game, when Wawrinka presented him a couple of break points through a series of unforced errors, he chipped a backhand directly at the feet of the advancing Wawrinka to elicit a weak half-volley and then hit a searing forehand down-the-line pass to break back and level the 2nd set. That basically set the template for the rest of the match. Federer repeatedly came to the net in his service games, and constantly moved Wawrinka around the court on his service games, to elicit the errors. With Wawrinka serving at 5-6, 30-30, Federer sensed an opportunity and pounced on his opponent's serves, taking them really early and finally breaking Wawrinka's resolve to win the set & match, 6-4, 7-5.

Overall, Federer hit 22 winners and made 16 unforced errors as compared to 16 winners and 21 unforced errors from the racquet of Wawrinka. He won his 5th Indian Wells title without dropping a set. This was also his 25th ATP Masters 1000 title (becoming the oldest player to win an ATP Masters 1000) and 90th tournament overall. This tournament win also propelled Federer to World No. 6 in ATP rankings.

Miami Open - Tournament wide open

Both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic withdrew from this year's Miami Open, citing similar elbow injuries. Their withdrawals are significant as they've established a dupoly on this tournament, winning 8 of the last 10 titles. So much so, that Nadal has failed to win this tournament even once (despite reaching 4 finals) and Federer, a two-time winner (the last title came in 2006), last reached a semi-final here in 2011 (he hasn't played in 3 of the last 6 years).  

The absence of the top two players in the world, has therefore, considerably opened up the field, as well as given the top seeds like Wawrinka, Nishikori, Federer and Nadal, an easier path to the semis. Nadal and Federer are pitted in opposite halves of the draw and hence, can't meet before the finals. Wawrinka and Federer are slotted in the same half and can potentially meet in the semi-finals. It won't be an easy ride though as Federer could meet the explosive Del Potro in the 3rd round (Head to Head: 15-5), the Acapulco champion Sam Querrey in the 4th round (H2H: 3-0), and the talented Dominic Thiem (H2H: 1-2) or Tomas Berdych (H2H: 17-6) in the quarters. Wawrinka has a slightly easier path to the quarters, given recent form of his likely opponents, but then the in-form Nick Kyrgios awaits in the quarters (H2H: 2-2). Also, he's unlikely to have it easy against likely opponent Alexander Zverev in the 4th round (H2H: 0-1).

The plethora of upsets in the bottom half of the draw yesterday, means that both Nadal and Nishikori are likely to have an easier path till their semi-final showdown. Nadal, who won his 2nd round encounter against Dudi Sela yesterday, is now drawn to play Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 3rd round (H2H: 13-1). Either Milos Raonic (H2H; 7-2) or Indian Wells semi-finalist, Jack Sock (H2H: 2-0), could be a quarter-final opponent for Nadal. Nishikori is slated to next meet Fernando Verdasco (H2H: 2-2), the only other remaining seed in that quarter of the draw. So a Nishikori-Nadal semi-final looks more certain than the Wawrinka-Federer one.

Why has Federer struggled at Miami?   

Federer's first appearance in Miami was in 1999 (as a wild card). He's a two-time winner (2005, 2006) and has been a runner-up in 2002 (lost to Agassi). Apart from these title appearances, he's just reached two other semi-finals (2009, 2011) and his record at the tournament is, a less-than-stellar 44-13. The slow courts have often been blamed for this. However, ATP court-speed data released in October 2016, showed Miami courts to be quicker than Indian Wells. 

Source: Reddit.com

It could be argued therefore, that more than the court speed, it's the tournament's scheduling that may have hurt Federer (coming as it does, immediately after Indian Wells). He last played here in 2014 when he lost in the quarters to Nishikori. He skipped the 2013, 2015 and 2016 editions - this seems to have been slightly low priority for Federer in the last few years. Especially since this is the last hard court tournament before the clay court season starts. Federer has clearly indicated that the clay court swing in 2017 will be low priority for him, as he has set his sights on Wimbledon. Hence, it's reasonable to expect Federer to push himself very hard for a 3rd title in Miami.

Will we witness Fedal Episode 03 of Season '17?  

While the path to the finals is not easy for either Federer or Nadal, millions of fans would be eagerly anticipating their third meeting in 2017. It's quite incredible, considering that having not met in 2016 and only once in 2015, they can potentially meet for the 3rd time in the first three months of 2017! They've met in Miami on three previous occasions with Nadal triumphing on two occasions. In fact, their first two career meetings were in Miami. In 2004, the 17 year old Nadal upset the world no. 1 Federer in straight sets (3rd round) and made the tennis world sit up and take notice. The following year, the duo met in the finals. Nadal won the first two sets and was up 4-1 in the 3rd. Federer then mounted a stunning comeback by breaking back and winning the tight 3rd set in a tie-break. This proved to be the turning point - Federer raced away with the final two sets as the rapidly-tiring Nadal couldn't keep up. That was Federer's first Miami title and Nadal's first runner-up performance. Two months later, Nadal won his first grand slam title at Roland-Garros and his victory over Federer in the semis, launched his winning head-to-head record against the Swiss giant.

In both their meetings in 2017, Federer has overcome Nadal by being very aggressive with his backhand and taking the balls very early (see my previous blog). By doing this twice within a space of six weeks, Federer has revealed his hand. If they meet again on 2nd April, Nadal will be hoping to find an ace up his sleeve!

Dharamsala test: Series decider in the shadow of the Himalayas

So we finally arrive in the hillside city of Dharamsala, with the series tied at 1-1, with hours of exciting cricket already played, and yet with everything to play for in the venue's debut test. There's been some banter on-the-field, some words spoken off-the-field, the media has played its role but overall, these incidents have been overshadowed by some terrific cricket played by both teams. Many expected India to steamroll their opponents but clearly Smith & his team were quietly confident about their chances, even before the Pune test. Its perhaps apt then, that they come into the decider on the back of a hard-fought draw, with both teams confident of their chances and yet, aware of the opposition's threat.

Will India make it 10 for the season?

Leading up to this series, India had won 8 tests and drawn 1 during this home season. In this series, they've won their 9th test, drawn their 2nd and lost their 1st test match of the season. Kohli & Co. will undoubtedly look to record their 10th victory at Dharamsala and take the series along with it. Given the quality of their opposition, this would be one of Kohli's sweetest series victories as a captain. In each of the three tests, Australia has grabbed the initiative and put India under severe pressure. And yet, apart from the failure in Pune, India has stood up to the challenge. They turned the tables both in Bengaluru, where they won, as well as in Ranchi, where they put Australia under tremendous pressure on Day 5. The bowlers have looked good and if the batting clicks as a unit, the Border-Gavaskar trophy could be won at this picturesque venue.

Will Smith & Co. conquer India in India?

Australia's last test series victory in India was in 2004-05. In fact, since that series winning test at Nagpur, Australia went 11 tests in India without a victory. They finally broke that winless run in Pune and had chances both in Bengaluru, and less so in Ranchi, to seal the Border-Gavaskar trophy (as a previous winner, Australia will retain the trophy even if they draw the series). Despite that, it can't be denied that the Aussies have held on valiantly after the morale-crushing defeat at Bengaluru and the subsequent sidelining of Mitchell Starc on account of injury. Pat Cummins showed in Ranchi that he's perfectly capable of filling in as a strike bowler. If the Dharamsala pitch lives up to its reputation of assisting seamers, then Australia can pick up Jackson Bird in place of the struggling Nathon Lyon and hope that they can use Maxwell's off-spin more effectively. A win or a draw will help Smith & Co. to retain the Border-Gavaskar trophy, a result unthinkable for many, even in the Australian press, just four weeks ago!    

How are the teams placed?

Australia is likely to field the same eleven that secured a draw in Ranchi. Pat Cummins has been cleared to play after precautionary tests on the back. Australia would be hoping that Nathan Lyon comes back into form on a pitch that will likely to have more bounce and pace than Ranchi. If the curator leaves more than a tinge of grass on the wicket, then Australia may be tempted to replace Lyon with Bird. However, that seems unlikely and even Australia won't want to change a stable, successful combination for a crucial test like this.

India has been bothered by a few injury issues, the biggest among them being the shoulder injury of Virat Kohli. Cricket fans will remember, that twelve years ago, Australia headed into the Nagpur test 1-0 up and on a greenish pitch that offered massive assistance to fast bowlers, India's captain (Sourav Ganguly) had to miss the test due to injury. The Aussies were pleasantly surprised by that pitch; their seamers picked up 16 wickets to help Australia win the match by a huge margin and secure the series. With the likelihood of a pitch assisting the seamers and the captain missing out on account of injury, there's a sense of déjà vu. Indians would be hoping to avoid an encore though. Shreyas Iyer has been called as a cover for Kohli, and Rahane will captain if Kohli fails to pass the fitness test. An additional headache has emerged in the form of M Vijay's fitness. He didn't attend the practice sessions and it's likely that the shoulder injury, that kept him out of the Bengaluru test, has flared up. If he does sit out, then Abhinav Mukund will take his place. On the bowling front, it's unlikely that India will tinker with the combination, except if there's potentially some swing available. In that case, Bhuvneshwar Kumar may replace Ishant Sharma. 

Pitch

The pitches in this series have come under intense scrutiny. And the quality of the pitches have thrown up some intriguing battles. The pitch at Dharamsala has traditionally assisted pace bowlers. And the cool climate (with temperatures in the low 20s) is likely to assist swing. Kohli expects the pitch to have bounce and carry. With the almost anti-climatic behavior by the Ranchi pitch after the massive hue & cry raised prior to the match, the predictions have been far more guarded this time around. Or may be, with so much at stake, everybody is too tense to venture into predictions!    

India & Australia: Perfecting the Art of Comeback

At the end of day 5 in Ranchi, a draw was probably a fair result. And the series scoreline, with a test to go, is also a fair reflection of how both teams have competed relentlessly on even terms. The Ranchi test ebbed and flowed in a manner symptomatic of this series. Australia pushed India on the back-foot through a sizable first innings total and by making inroads into the Indian middle-order. India then pulled things back through a monumental 7th wicket partnership and then applied pressure on the Aussies by picking up their first 4 wickets cheaply. Finally, it was left to the young, Handscomb and the experienced, Shaun Marsh to combine and save the day for the visitors.

Recapping Day 4 and Day 5

Australia had a slight upper hand going in to Day 4 with India still trailing by 91 (Check out My previous blog). The overcast conditions (necessitating the use of flood-lights) seemed to be tailor-made for Cummins and Hazlewood. However, the ball was soft (50 overs old) and the next new ball was available only after another 30 overs. Australia tried very hard, dried up the runs but couldn't break the resistance offered by Pujara and Saha. While Pujara remained resolute in defence, Saha used his feet intelligently against the spinners. Even though only 75 runs were added in the morning session, this pair ensured that India didn't lose a wicket and in the process came very close to the Aussie first innings total. Australia took the new ball as soon as it was available, in the hopes of breaking the partnership & then running through the Indian lower middle order. Those hopes were to remain suspended for another session though. And any hopes of India going for quick runs in the 2nd session quickly evaporated as the overnight pair ensured another wicketless session with the addition of 68 runs between lunch and tea. Post-tea session, however, was the most eventful of the match. Saha quickly completed his 3rd test century and then Pujara completed his double century, the 3rd of his career and 2nd against Australia. He got out shortly after that, giving Lyon his first wicket since the first innings of Bengaluru test, and ending a monumental 199 run partnership with Saha. Jadeja quickly got into the groove and even though Saha departed shortly after Pujara, he along with Umesh Yadav piled on further misery on the Australians by putting together a 54 run partnership. Jadeja got a quickfire fifty (54 off 55 balls) before Kohli declared, with India 152 in front and Australia facing the daunting task of seeing off 8 overs before close of play. They ultimately didn't have to play the full 8 overs as the nightwatchman, Lyon, fell to 2nd delivery of the last over. Jadeja was expected to be the danger-man for Australia and he got both Warner and then Lyon by two absolutely top class deliveries. Australia ended Day 4 at 23-2, still 129 runs in arrears, and staring at a real prospect of defeat.

Day 5 began with Australia's most prolific pair (during this series) on the crease. Both Renshaw and Smith had played the Indian spinners reasonably comfortably throughout the series and India knew that breaking this partnership would almost mean a foot in the door. The pair survived for another 21 overs and had brought the lead down to less than 100, when Renshaw fell LBW to Ishant. The Indian quick who was bowling from round the wicket, set up Renshaw very nicely. He bowled a couple of nasty bouncers and followed those up with a full delivery that caught Renshaw on the crease, dead in front of the stumps. Three balls later, Jadeja accounted for Smith when the Australian captain, in a moment of indecision eerily similar to his Indian counterpart in Bengaluru, padded up to a delivery that was relatively full and in line with the stumps, and lost his off-stump. With both in-form batsmen back in the hut and Australia still 89 runs behind India, Kohli & Co. must have started harbouring hopes of wrapping up a victory in the 2nd session. That however proved to be a false dawn with Shaun Marsh and Handscomb displaying superior defensive technique and putting up an outstanding rearguard action. Very importantly, the rightie-leftie pair kept the scoreboard ticking thereby eating away at India's lead. By the time Jadeja got Marsh, they had added 124 runs, eaten up 62 additional overs and the match was already in the last hour. Even though, Ashwin got Maxwell shortly thereafter, both Handscomb and Wade ensured no further damage and finally, with 10 minutes left, Kohli and Handscomb shook hands, signalling the end of a very thrilling encounter. 

Stats Stack-up

Two of the top 3 batsmen from both teams continue to dominate the batting charts. And, Peter Handscomb is slowly starting to make his mark in this series. He combined brilliantly with Shaun Marsh (who's at no.6 in the list below) to pull Australia out of the woods and help them save the Ranchi test. And who would've thought that Kohli would muster less than 50 runs in 5 innings! 

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

There's not much change in the bowling charts either. Jadeja has emerged as the most effective as well as the most consistent bowler from either side. Steve O'Keefe has been steady over the last two tests following his spectacular 12-wicket haul in Pune. Both the off-spinners will be slightly disappointed - they've been good in patches (one inning each in Bengaluru) but haven't looked consistently penetrative. Umesh Yadav continues to be the best fast bowler from either side but he may be in for some competition from Pat Cummins (given the likely conditions in Dharamsala). 

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Everything on the line in Dharamsala

The next test in Dharamsala starts in 5 days and this gives very little time for the players to recover. This is especially true for bowlers - on an average, the fast bowlers bowled 40 overs while the spinners bowled 70 overs (mainly because of Jadeja and O'Keefe) in this match. However, with the season coming to an end, the respective team managements will push the players to give it all. Plus, there's plenty on line here. Whoever wins the next match, wins this series as well as the Border-Gavaskar trophy. In case of a draw, Australia will retain the trophy. 

A fighting draw in Ranchi may give the momentum to the Aussies and hence make them favourites for the next test, but there've been enough instances during this series where teams, when counted down and out, have made spectacular comebacks. Recall how India seemed down and out at the end of Day 1 in Bengaluru (check my blog during Bengaluru test), and having already lost the Pune test (check my blog after Pune test), were in serious danger of losing the series. Instead they mounted a superb comeback, led by their bowlers as well as Pujara and Rahane, and pinned the Aussies on the mat. Coming into the 3rd test, remember the kind of pressure Australia and Steve Smith were under (following the DRS-issue). India were considered heavy favourites to continue their winning momentum in Ranchi. And yet, Australia, led by Smith and comeback man Maxwell, mounted an impressive first innings total. Further, Pat Cummins, returning to test cricket after 6 years, put India under serious pressure. Then again, Pujara and Saha rescued India with the bat while Jadeja, with both bat and ball, gave a mighty scare to the Aussies. Prediction won't make for a lucrative profession in this series. 

Dharamsala, making its debut as India's 27th test centre, will have a much cooler climate. It has traditionally assisted fast bowlers. We are all set for the final test of this season. Here's hoping that Dharamsala adds another exciting chapter to this riveting series!