"If Australia play well, India will win 3-0. That is if Australia play well. Otherwise, 4-0.", said former Indian offie, Harbhajan Singh before the India-Australia test series got underway. Even Sourav Ganguly, an astute reader of the game, predicted that this series could also go 4-0 in India's favor like the England series. Only Virender Sehwag sounded a note of caution, stating that the law of averages may catch up with this Indian team, while predicting a 3-0 or 3-1 kind of a scoreline.
Looking at these predictions as well as the numerous articles in media (which were dismissive of Australia's chances), I became increasingly uncomfortable. After all, everybody was labeling this Australian team as one of the weakest ever. Possibly, the "experts" were being lazy with their analysis. May be, they were taking cue from Australia's last tour of Sri Lanka in July-August 2016, where they were thrashed 3-0. Perfectly reasonable to assume that they were mindful of how the visiting South African team beat Australia 2-1 only 3 months back. I became so wary of how everybody was writing this Australian team off, that I tweeted the following before the 1st test got underway:
So what happened? Why did this Indian test team's juggernaut come to such a screeching halt at Pune? And how come many experts didn't see that coming? After all, this was Australia's first test victory in India since 2004!! (yes, you read that right). And, this was also India's second worst test defeat on home soil - coming 2nd to that very test in 2004 (held at Nagpur). Not to mention, India's combined total of 212 runs across 2 innings and 20 wickets in Pune, is their worst match aggregate ever on home soil. The time for serious soul-searching is now.
What did the experts fail to notice?
The tendency to oversimplify & overlook details and perspectives is all too prevalent today. Especially, if these details unsettle the neat conclusions that one seeks or those that don't fit the prevailing narrative.
The pivotal moment for Australian cricket during this season came after they suffered a humiliating innings defeat against South Africa in the 2nd test at Hobart in November. This was their 5th consecutive test defeat and there were immediate fallouts - the chairman of selectors, Rod Marsh, resigned and Trevor Hohns became interim chairman. Plus there were wholesale changes to the squad. Three cricketers debuted for Australia in their next test vs South Africa at Adelaide - opener Matt Renshaw, middle-order batsmen Peter Handscomb and Nic Maddison. Also, in came Mathew Wade as the wicket-keeper replacing Peter Nevill while pacer Jackson Bird replaced Joe Mennie. Also, Steve O'Keefe was drafted in against Pakistan in the 3rd test in January 2017 at Sydney. These changes infused a new sense of purpose amongst the Aussies and since then, they've won 5 consecutive tests (including the Pune test). Both Handscomb and Renshaw have been very impressive since their debuts while O'Keefe has made a great comeback.
Youngsters apart, the experienced hands in the Aussie ranks are much too familiar with the Indian conditions. Warner, Steve Smith, Starc, Shaun Marsh have all played regularly in IPL; Warner even led his franchise to their 2nd IPL title in the last edition. While Warner and Steve Smith have very impressive test records, Shaun Marsh has a fantastic record in Asia. Also, what was largely forgotten in the noisy narrative (that "Aussie batsmen will crumble against spin") was the fact that their current batting line up boasts of several batsmen who play spin bowling very well. Steve Smith, Shaun Marsh and Peter Handscomb are very nimble on their feet and are acknowledged as good players of spin bowling.
Determining factors in the Pune test
It'll be useful to analyze what went wrong for India in this test and how Australia prevailed in such dominating fashion. Of course, it would be too simplistic to pin this down to a few factors but I'll still make an effort to highlight the major factors.
The pitch
The pitch at MCA Stadium in Pune came in for some scrutiny. The surface was very abrasive and devoid of any moisture. This resulted in the ball getting scuffed up pretty quickly and the pitch offering plenty of turn and bounce from the 1st session itself. I tweeted the following after watching the opening hour of play (mind you Australia's opening pair were yet to be separated):
As a matter of fact, the match got over in a little over 2.5 days. The pitch was unlike any India have played in this home season. This rank turner can only be compared with the pitches used during South Africa's tour of India in Nov-Dec 2015. In that series, South Africa didn't cross 200 in any of the completed matches (the Bangalore test was rained off) while India crossed the 300 mark only once. Needless to say, the Australian team adapted much better to the dry surface in Pune vis-a-vis the South African during that series while India's much vaunted batting lineup simply crumbled. On such pitches, a finger spinner is much more lethal given that he can turn the ball a long way even when bowling at a quick pace and at a flatter trajectory. It's still unclear whether this pitch was prepared on specific request from the Indian team management (Kohli denies this) or it was a case of under-preparation given this was the first test match hosted at this venue.
Aussie spinners outbowled their Indian counterparts!
Yes you read that right!! Despite playing three spinners including two off-spinners (presumably to counter the plethora of left-handed batsmen in Australia's batting lineup), Indian spinners were out-bowled by Steve O'Keefe and Nathan Lyon. How did that happen? Some experts have pointed out that on a raging turner like this one, in order to get a dismissal, the deliveries have to be fuller in length (vis-a-vis good pitches). Since the ball turns appreciably after pitching, the closer it is to the bat, the lesser it'll deviate before reaching the bat and thereby has a greater chance of taking an edge instead of missing the bat. Both O'Keefe and Lyon kept the ball much fuller vis-a-vis Jadeja and Ashwin, thereby either inducing an edge or missing the inside edge for an LBW dismissal. The below pitch maps amply demonstrate this:
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| Source: ESPNcricinfo.com |
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| Source: ESPNcricinfo.com |
Notice in the above pitchmaps as to how the Aussie spinners are closer to 2 - 4 mtr range and there are fewer deliveries in the 4 - 6 mtr range vis-a-vis the Indian spinners (in the respective 1st innings). In the 2nd innings, the Indian bowlers tried to bowl fuller (esp. Jadeja) but they were still not full enough.
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| Source: ESPNcricinfo.com |
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| Source: ESPNcricinfo.com |
All in all, while the left arm spin of O'Keefe wreaked havoc amongst the Indian batting line up comprising mainly of right-handers (10 out of 11 batsmen are right-handers), Ashwin couldn't do as much damage against the Aussie batting line up comprising largely of lefties (6 out of 11 batsmen are left-handers).
Aussies batted with a plan, the Indians appeared clueless!
In the pre-match conference, the Aussie skipper spoke about how the spin was inconsistent on Asian pitches (unlike the Australian pitches) and hence, how difficult it was to pick the off-break from the one that didn't turn (even though it was delivered as an off-spinner). On such pitches, Smith professed that one needs to eliminate one half of the bat. In other words, the batsman needs to ensure that he plays the line of the ball and doesn't follow the deliveries that turn. This way, he may get beaten on the outside edge of the bat but not on the inside edge (thereby eliminating LBW). Smith practiced what he preached and got a masterful 100 in the 2nd innings. Renshaw played well in both the innings and specifically targeted Jadeja by repeatedly going down the pitch against him. Mitchell Starc used the long handle to good effect in both the innings and came up with very useful contributions down the order. Overall, the Aussie batsmen showed a lot of grit and patience to muster totals of above 250 in both the innings.
On the other hand, the Indian batsmen looked clueless against the Aussie bowlers esp. O'Keefe. In the 1st innings, they were first bamboozled by the Aussie pacers and then were either too tentative or too dismissive against O'Keefe. In the 2nd innings, they kept missing the straighter ones to either get bowled or LBW. Apart from KL Rahul in the first dig and Pujara in the 2nd, none of the other Indian batsmen showed any fight. As a result, India barely managed to score above 100 in either of the innings and they lasted for less than 75 overs (combined for both the innings).
Australia's superior fielding!
Australia's superior fielding, esp. their close catching, held sway and thereby played a significant part in this match. Handscomb held some outstanding catches in the first innings and both Smith and Wade were safe. On the other hand, Indian fielders dropped Smith three times during the course of his 2nd innings hundred. "Catches win matches" never sounded this prescient.
What lies in store for the rest of this series?
The Pune test was a sudden wake-up call for this all-conquering Indian team. There was possibly a hint of complacency coming into this test but this thrashing must have put them on guard. They'll now know that these Aussie boys are more than a handful and making a comeback & winning this series will test their character and grit to the fullest. I do expect Virat Kohli & Co. to make a comeback in the remaining tests and if the Aussies can continue playing with the same determination and tact, we'll have a cracker of a series - possibly one to rival the memorable 2001 series.
