Reliving Federer vs. Cilic at Wimbledon 2016

As Roger Federer and Marin Cilic prepare to face-off in the Wimbledon 2017 final on Sunday, it'll be good to review their previous encounter. Federer and Cilic squared off in the quarter-final of Wimbledon 2016 and what a classic five-setter it was!

The Croatian had demolished the Swiss Champion in their encounter, previous to this one. That was in the semi-final of the US Open 2014 where Cilic simply destroyed Federer in straight sets on his way to his maiden Grand Slam title. Federer of course, remembered this and he mentioned how "he was blown away" by Cilic, in the press conference after his 4th round win over Steve Johnson. He specifically mentioned how Cilic had improved his serve considerably (see press conference video) and this was in ample display in the first two sets of their quarter-final encounter. Federer was unable to get any read on the Cilic serve as the tall Croatian quickly went up 2 sets to love. Then, the decisive, match-turning moment came in the 7th game of the 3rd set. The 7-time champion had his backs to the wall as he was serving at 0-40, virtually three match points down, given the way Cilic was serving. He somehow managed to extricate himself out of that situation with guts and grit. Then, with the momentum swinging back to his side, the Swiss broke Cilic in the very next game and held on to take the third set 6-3. The biggest difference now, was that Federer was able to read Cilic's serve and he was beginning to look comfortable with the pace of the serve as well as the power of Cilic's groundstrokes.

The 4th set was a mini-classic as both players upped their respective games. Serving at 1-2, Federer made a couple of errors from either wing to go down 15-40. He once again summoned his inner-genius to hit a few unreturnable serves (including a few second serves) and hold for 2-2. In the very next game, Cilic faced a similar situation. When 15-40 down, the Croatian sent down 4 consecutive aces to hold and pay tribute to his coach, Goran Ivanisevic. Serving at 4-5, 30-40, the Swiss saved the first match point of the day. Then at 5-6, 30-40, Federer saved another match point. The inevitable tie-break arrived and it was no less dramatic than the entire 4th set. Serving at 6-4, Federer had two set points, but Cilic won three straight points to earn his 3rd match point. The tension was palpable as a big second serve again saved Federer. The Swiss finally won the 4th set tie-break 12-10 to level the match.

The first half of the 5th set had lesser intensity as compared to the 4th set as both players held on to their service games. Serving at 3-4, 30-40, Cilic saved the 2nd break point of the set via a forehand winner but couldn't save the third as he sent a forehand fractionally wide. Serving for the match at 5-3, Federer decided that he'd had enough of drama as he closed out the match with an ace.

It was just an incredible match (see my short Facebook post after the match) and one of the best comeback wins by Federer over his career. He would go on to lose in the semi-final against Milos Raonic and an injury sustained in the 5th set of that match, convinced the Swiss to call time on his 2016 season. He's currently tied with Pete Sampras and William Renshaw, for the most number of Wimbledon titles (7), and would be acutely aware that breaking away from this pack won't be easy against an in-form Cilic on Sunday. Fingers crossed for a high-quality encounter; another pulsating 5-setter won't be bad at all!    

Wimbledon 2017: Previewing the pre-quarters

This blog is available as a video blog on https://youtu.be/2RrcWlAtMGk

Wimbledon remains the only Grand Slam where no play is held on the middle Sunday. This then provides us the opportunity to pause and take stock. To start off, a pop-quiz! When was the last time that each member of the Big Four survived the first week of a Grand Slam tournament? Believe it or not, it was more than 2 years and 8 Grand Slams ago - in the French Open 2015. So the headline of the week surely must be about the strong comeback by the Big Four. And it's not just the fact that they've all reached the 4th round but also the manner in which they've gone about their business. Between them, Murray, Djokovic, Federer and Nadal, have lost just one set on their way to the Round of 16. They've all overcome tricky opponents with relative ease. The other strong contenders, namely Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic, have also been impressive as they too have lost just one set between them.

The upsets amongst the Top 10 aren't really shocking. Both Wawrinka and Nishikori don't consider grass as their favourite surface, have a below-par record at Wimbledon and to make matters worse, they were both handed out brutal draws. What has been slightly surprising though, is Dominic Thiem's performance. He wasn't in great grass-court form coming into this tournament, but he's through to his first Round of 16 at Wimbledon.

The other talk dominating headlines is how the surface is playing. Some players have complained about the quality of the grass, how it is playing slowly, how some courts are slippery, how the grass is uneven. Of course, the lack of rainfall has made the surface behave like a slow hard court and that probably explains the lack of big upsets or even contests. However, I do think that the contests will become very interesting from hereon.

The most interesting match-up in the top half of the draw is between 2-time champion, Nadal and the in-form Gilles Muller. Muller, a tall leftie from Luxembourg, is a grass court specialist and is coming into this match on the back of an impressive grass-court season. He reached the semis at Queen's, falling to Cilic in a tough 3-setter, and won the Rosmalen Championship a week earlier, beating Alexander Zverev in straight sets on his way to the title. The two southpaws have met twice at Wimbledon in the past. Muller won the first encounter in 2005 while Nadal exacted revenge in 2011. Nadal has been in sensational form, having not dropped a set in his last 10 grand slam matches but this could be a tough test. Muller has a huge serve, hits a lot of aces (he's at the top of the ace-chart) and employs a classic serve-and-volley game. But will his game stand up to scrutiny against Rafa's relentless baseline game? This will be an entertaining match and may even go the distance, but I expect Rafa to come through.

Amongst other Round of 16 matches in the top half, I expect Murray and Cilic to come through their encounters with relative ease. Sam Querrey has racked up some impressive wins again this year and he's up against Kevin Anderson in a battle of tall players with huge serves. Both these guys are joint third in the aces count, having hit 68 aces each. Hence, don't expect long rallies. Tough one to call, may even go to five sets but I expect Querrey to come through this one and reach his 2nd consecutive quarter final at the Big W.

The bottom half of the draw has some potentially mouth-watering match-ups. Strong contender Raonic comes up against the rising star, Alexander Zverev. Both players are very good on grass but recent form suggests a slight upper hand for the German. Raonic obviously has the better serve but Zverev is very good from the baseline, esp. on the backhand side. The last year's finalist has gone deep in various Grand Slams previously while for Zverev, this will be his first Round of 16 match at a Grand Slam. In their only previous meeting, Zverev got the better of Raonic on clay at Rome Masters earlier in the season. I expect him to do an encore on grass and make his first Grand Slam quarter-final.

Federer and Dimitrov go up against each other for the first time since 2016 Australian Open. The 7-time Wimbledon champion has looked sensational this season, having won his 18th Grand Slam in Australia followed by the Sunshine Double in March. His clay court hiatus was followed by a stupendous victory at Halle. He's considered as the strongest contender at this year's Wimbledon. Dimitrov, on the other hand, has had a topsy-turvy season. He started the season very strongly, winning titles at Brisbane and Sofia, and coming very close to upsetting Nadal in a thrilling 5-set semi-final in the Australian Open. He racked up an impressive 16-1 win-loss record before his season went pear-shaped at Rotterdam. He went on to suffer a shocking loss of form in the remaining hard court season and that losing spree continued in the clay court season. From 16-1, he went 5-9 leading up to the Queen's Club Championship where he finally found some form and reached the semis. The question though, is whether he's ready for the born-again Federer. I would say, difficult given the evidence. I'm going with Federer in 4 sets.

Dominic Thiem and Tomas Berdych have met only once before. That too was a 4th round encounter, three years ago at the Flushing Meadows, when the 6th seed Berdych steamrolled the unseeded Thiem in three easy sets. Things won't be easy for the Czech this time though. Thiem, the higher seed, has been outstanding this season and although he suffered two shocking losses at Halle and Antalya and his high backlift is generally considered unsuitable for grass, the Austrian has surprised one and all with his performance in London. Berdych too hasn't had a great grass-court season falling to Feliciano Lopez in the quarters both at Queen's as well as in Stuttgart. His Grand Slam performance hasn't been up to the mark in 2017 and he hasn't yet won a title this year. This one is tough to call and most likely, the match will go the distance. Thiem has already proved that he can play on the big stage and seeing him in his first Wimbledon quarter-final shouldn't surprise anyone anymore.

The no. 2 seed and the 3-time Wimbledon champion, Novak Djokovic, faces Adrian Mannarino for the second consecutive year at Wimbledon. They met in the 2nd round last year and Nole came through in straight sets. The significance of that match isn't lost on anyone as Djokovic lost in the very next round to Sam Querrey and his career has undergone a major slump that continues till today. Mannarino has caused some upsets already this year, first overcoming a red-hot Feliciano Lopez in 4 sets in the first round, and then defeating Gael Monfils in 5 sets after being down 2 sets to 1, in the previous round. Djokovic himself has started to find his bearings and his straight-sets victory over the dangerous Gulbis in the previous round was very impressive. Does Mannarino have enough fuel in the tank to cause the 3rd and his most significant upset? I think Djokovic will find a way and should come through in 4 sets.

We are all set then for a Super Monday. It's Love All!