IPL 2017: If April was hot, May will be hotter!

A sprint is comprised of three broad phases - drive, maximum velocity, maintenance. During the drive phase, the sprinter begins in a crouched position as he bursts from a dead still position into a sprint, and strives to make use of his entire body. In the maximum velocity phase, the sprinter is in a fully erect position and achieves top speed. Lastly, in the maintenance phase, the sprinter's goal is to minimize deceleration, as he cannot maintain top speed for the entire race. 

Sprint is an apt comparison with the freneticism that IPL represents. And like in a sprint, we've seen various IPL editions go through similar phases. Some teams, like a standard sprinter, start in the best possible manner, making best use of available resources, and try to gain maximum momentum for the latter half of the tournament. Others, like Usain Bolt, start slowly but continue to build momentum as they move to the knockout stage. Every IPL has thrown up both kinds. 

For example, at the halfway stage in IPL 2016, neither of the finalists (SRH and RCB) were in the top four. In fact, the runners-up RCB were languishing at the 7th spot. They then made a strong surge, finished in the top two at the end of the league stage and eventually made the finals. On the other hand, there were the table toppers Gujarat Lions, who figured in the top 2 almost throughout the league stage but failed to make the finals. Similarly, in the 2015 edition, Mumbai Indians, having endured another poor start, were placed 7th halfway through the tournament. Like RCB in 2016, MI too made a strong surge towards the end, finishing in the top two and eventually did one better than RCB, by winning the 2015 edition. Meanwhile, the table toppers, Chennai Super Kings, were in the top two throughout the league phase and eventually made the finals.

Nearly 60% of league matches of IPL 2017 are done and dusted. By now, the well prepared teams have settled into their winning combination while the not-so-well-prepared ones are running helter skelter to find one. Or, in sprint terminology, the drive phase is over and we are in the midst of the maximum velocity phase. The points table, which was previously getting overhauled after each match, is now seeing marginal adjustments. Hence, this is a good time to take a look at those aspects, that make up the team combinations, and have impacted the league standings so far. Basically, we look at the following:

• Batting - opening combinations
• Batting strategy
• Bowling strategy
• Performance of all-rounder
• Performance of wicket-keeper

How are the teams stacked up?

A cursory glance at the points table at different stages during the 2017 edition (see below), will reveal how certain teams have maintained consistently strong performances, certain others have made a comeback of sorts and the remaining few have slipped. 

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

While Mumbai Indians (MI), Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) have remained in the top 4 throughout, Kings XI Punjab (KXIP) has slipped after a good start. Rising Pune Supergiant (RPS), which has won 4 out of their last 5 matches, is now making a strong surge. So is Gujarat Lions (GL), which seems to be finally getting its act together, with key players back in form. Delhi Daredevils (DD), despite boasting of the strongest pace bowling attack and after getting off to a good start, hasn't got its batting strategy right and this has cost them a place in the top 5. Lastly, Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) has mostly not turned up, barring a rare good performance - RCB has consistently hugged the bottom of the table.

For the purpose of the analyses below, I've divided the teams into three categories based on their performances so far (all analyses below is upto Match no. 33, featuring KXIP vs. SRH on 28th April 2017):

• Leaders - Teams with more than 50% wins and +ve NRR; MI, KKR and SRH
• Laggards - Teams with 40-50% wins or -ve NRR; RPS
• Also-rans - Teams with less than 40% wins; GL, KXIP, DD and RCB

Opening batting combination

One of the most crucial aspects of a strong batting lineup, esp. in a T20 match, is whether the opening combination is settled or not. Successful teams typically have:

• A stable opening pair
• Opening pair regularly gets a partnership of 30+ runs 
• As a result, the team manages to score 50+ in the powerplay without losing more than 2 wickets.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

MI and SRH have stuck to the same opening pair for all their matches, and they've got 30+ run partnerships on 5 occasions each. While MI has scored 53 runs on an average in the powerplays (losing 2 wickets), SRH has managed only 46 runs (losing only 1 wicket). This go slow approach by SRH seemed deliberate in the first few matches, as the normally aggressive Warner assumed the role of a sheet anchor and SRH had their hitters in Henriques, Hooda and Yuvraj following immediately after the openers. This has changed in the last few matches as they've got Williamson at no. 3, allowing both Warner and Dhawan to bat a little more aggressively.

KKR meanwhile has adopted a different strategy. With Gambhir anchoring the innings, they've given the license to the other opener to go for broke from ball 1. They started their campaign with the big-hitting Chris Lynn but once Lynn was injured, they promoted Sunil Narine up the order, and the Trinidadian has delivered big time for his team (141 runs at a strike rate of 178). KKR too has a settled opening pair now, with Gambhir and Narine opening together in the last 6 matches.

RPS has used 3 openers and their powerplay numbers are more impressive than both MI and SRH. They've got an opening partnership in excess of 30 on four occasions and their average score after powerplays is 53 (losing 1 wicket in the process). While RPS first tried Mayank Agarwal alongside Rahane, they've now settled for Rahul Tripathi instead of Agarwal. Tripathi has been one of the finds of the tournament scoring 216 runs at a strike rate of 154+, so far.

GL has tried a horses for courses approach, with McCullum as a fixture at one end and experimentation with four other openers at the other. They started with Jason Roy, then moved to Dwayne Smith, had Finch open on a couple of occasions when Smith was struggling against spinners, and then, in the last match against RCB, they sent in the left-handed Ishan Kishan to counter the threat of two leg-spinners in the RCB lineup. Finch has been used as a floater while Smith has now been moved to lower middle order. GL's run rate seems to be impressive but they are still yearning for consistency at the top.

On the other hand, KXIP has a settled opening pair in Amla and Manan Vohra with Shaun Marsh tried for one match, when Vohra was injured and Guptill tried once, when Amla was injured.

Neither of the bottom two teams have a settled opening pair. DD have tried four combinations with four openers (Samson, Billings, Tare and Karun Nair) and the opening wicket still averages only 29. Lastly, the star-studded RCB hasn't got their opening pair right, having looked at 5 different openers and 5 different opening combinations in their 8 matches! Obviously, Virat Kohli's injury hampered their opening strategy but even though he's back, RCB isn't sure whether Gayle fits into their overall scheme of things. The result has been just three partnerships of 30+ runs and an average PP score of 40. It's probably fair to say that the also-rans group has been hampered due to instability or consistency at the top.

Batting strategy

Let's now take a look at the batting strategy adopted by various teams. For this purpose, I've divided the innings into the following three phases:

1. Powerplay overs - Overs 1 to 6
2. Middle overs - Overs 7 to 16
3. Slog/end overs - Overs 17 to 20

I've then looked at the average run rates of teams during these phases to understand the strategy adopted by the various teams. Looking at the phase-wise run-rates:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

From the above charts, I believe it's more relevant to look at the first innings chart (for this purpose) since the run-rates while batting 2nd are driven by the target being chased. We can clearly witness the following two types of batting strategies from the above chart (first innings):

1. Start briskly, consolidate in the middle overs and then explode at the death - strategy followed by MI, KKR, RPS, DD and GL.
2. Start slowly, increase the run rate in the middle overs and continue to maximize run-scoring towards the death - strategy adopted by SRH, KXIP and RCB

The above strategy becomes evident if one looks at the batting orders of the respective teams.

Bowling combination

How about bowling combinations? While T20 started out as a batsman's game with bowlers playing supporting characters, over time this has changed. Champion T20 teams of today have very strong bowling line-ups and the captains generally have 6-7 bowling options. Let's look at the bowling combinations (pace and spin) that the teams have used so far in the 2017 edition.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

From the above charts, it's very clear that KKR and RCB have relied on spin much more (~45% of total balls bowled) than the pace-heavy line-ups of DD (25%), MI (31%) and SRH (33%). KKR has played Kuldeep Yadav and Sunil Narine in almost all matches and got them to bowl their full quota; plus, they've also played Piyush Chawla and Shakib Al Hasan occasionally. RCB too has relied heavily on the spin of Chahal, Negi and Badree.

On the other hand, DD has mainly played four fast bowlers (Morris, Cummins, Zaheer and now Rabada) and after playing Nadeem alongside Mishra for the first three matches, is now solely relying on Mishra as the spin option. MI too has utilized Harbhajan as the main spinner with the all-rounder Krunal Pandya playing the supporting role on a few occasions. On the other hand, SRH has completely relied on the Afghan star, Rashid Khan, as their sole spinning option (except for a couple of matches).

One look at the economy rate comparison between pace and spin (chart below) tells us that teams should look to utilize spinners a little more.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Even when comparing bowling averages or strike rates, spinners don't suffer in comparison to the pacers.

Lastly, we also look at the no. of bowlers that various teams have tried (pace and spin), subject to certain minimum criteria. One would notice that the top teams generally have a settled line-up.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

Performance of all-rounders

In order to make up for one or two bowlers having a bad day (or a bad match-up against a particular batsman who's in devastating form), most IPL captains increasingly prefer at least 6 bowlers in the line-up. This makes the role of all-rounders crucial. And these all-rounders typically contribute by scoring runs briskly and keeping the runs down while bowling (economy rates are as useful as wickets in a T20 match). I've taken a look at all-rounders across various IPL teams, applied criteria of at least 50 runs scored while batting and at least 4 overs bowled. Then I've compared the batting strike rate with the economy rate (per 100 balls) and taken the difference between the two (calling this All-Rounders' Index). Eliminating the negative ARIs i.e. where batting strike rate is less than bowling economy rate, this is what we get:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

Sunil Narine with an ARI of +67.5 is very much the standout amongst the all-rounders and is one of the primary reasons why KKR is on top of the points table. For MI, the Pandya brothers have provided incredible balance to the side. Ben Stokes has been the talisman for RPS (as was amply on display in the MI-RPS match at Wankhede). Similarly, DD's fortunes have fluctuated with the rise and fall of Chris Morris' form. In the initial stages he set the tournament on fire, bowling with pace and taking wickets upfront, and providing the late burst while batting. This enabled DD to get off to a good start but as Morris' form has dipped, so have DD's performances. Needless to say, a good all-rounder is critical to his team's fortunes.

Wicket-keepers - key to team balance 

What about wicket-keepers, I hear many of you ask! In modern cricketing terminology, a wicket-keeper, if also a capable batsman, is considered as an all-rounder. And team managements clearly demand that wicket-keepers contribute handsomely with the bat. For almost all IPL teams (except SRH), the wicket-keeper is also a key batsman - either playing in the top order (Uthappa, Parthiv, Jadhav) or coming at the back end to get some quick runs (Dhoni, Karthik, Saha and Pant). So, it's imperative that we look at their performances from a team composition perspective. For the following analysis, I've devised a composite batting metric (called batting index) that combines the run per innings (RPI; not the average) and strike rate per 100 balls. It's a product of the two parameters; so basically, if a batsman scores 40 runs in an innings at a strike rate of 90, the batter's performance is penalized as the batting index works out to 36 (40 x 0.9). Conversely, if he scored the same number of runs at a strike rate of 125, the batting index works out to a significantly better 50.  

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

From a batting perspective, Robin Uthappa has been the most outstanding performer with a batting index of 69.5 - far ahead of the competition. This too has enabled KKR to remain the front-runners in the current edition. Other notable performers include Jadhav and Karthik.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

The primary job of a keeper, however, is keeping wickets. For analyzing the keeping performance, we take a look at dismissals per innings as well as extras conceded per innings (byes which are attributable to the keeper). Here, it's the Indian test wicket-keepers (present or past) who've been especially tidy - look at the extras / innings for Parthiv, Dhoni, Karthik and Saha. In terms of dismissals / innings, Uthappa and Pant stand out, but a lot of that has to do with the type and quality of bowling line-ups that their respective teams possess.

Conclusion

In a 100 mtr sprint, most runners achieve top speed around the 60 mtr mark and they try to maintain this speed till the 80 mtr mark. It can be argued that KKR, MI and SRH are fast approaching that stage. They've ticked most of the boxes - stable opening pair in line with the batting strategy, bowlers performing their assigned roles, key all-rounder(s) identified and wicket-keeper contributing both behind, as well as, in-front of the stumps. The focus will remain on making the play-offs and possibly finishing in the top 2 (thereby securing two chances to qualify for the finals). 

On the other hand, the laggards will look to play catch up and possibly go for an all-out attack. Expect them to be more ruthless with their selections in the coming matches. They'll be less reliant on strategy, more on scrapping. And also, hopeful to do a Usain Bolt. The 8-time Olympic gold medalist is a renowned slow-starter who hits the highest velocity in the 60-80 mtr phase and then maintains this speed almost till the finishing line. Not a bad example to emulate!

IPL 2017: Pune overcome Mumbai again in another nail-biter

Rising Pune Supergiants (RPS) handed Mumbai Indians (MI) only their second defeat of IPL 2017, in a nail-biting encounter at Wankhede stadium. Remarkably, both of Mumbai's defeats have come at the hands of RPS and both these encounters went down to the last three balls. While the RPS captain, Steve Smith, helped his team chase down a stiffer target and hit the winning runs, the MI captain couldn't quite replicate that as Rohit fell in the last over. This defeat snapped MI's 6-watch winning streak and was their first defeat in 7 matches at Wankhede. With this win, RPS continued their strong surge and having secured their third successive win, are now placed in the top 4.

Toss: Karn in, Krunal out

Mumbai won the toss and Rohit Sharma had no hesitation in putting the opposition in. Crucially for MI, Krunal Pandya had to sit out due to an injury and they decided to play the leg spinner, Karn Sharma. This was slightly surprising since Karn doesn't provide the same batting proficiency as Krunal. There was a feeling that MI were a batsman short. RPS, who had aced a close chase over SRH in their previous match, felt no need to change the playing XI.

RPS batting: Aggressive Tripathy, Impressive Tiwary

Ajinkya Rahane and Rahul Tripathi started off solidly, mixing caution with some delightful strokes. In the first few overs, it was Rahane who was the aggressor with a couple of sumptuous straight drives, one each on either side of the umpire, standing out. Rohit introduced Karn Sharma in the 4th over itself and after a calm first over, both Tripathi and Rahane laid into him in his second over. That over, the last of the powerplay, yielded 11 runs and ensured that the score at the end of powerplay looked competitive (48/0). RPS continued to score at a brisk pace, taking 14 off McClenaghan's 2nd over (8th of the innings), before the spinners applied brakes on the scoring rate. Harbhajan was miserly, conceding just 16 runs off this 3 overs, while Karn Sharma was the wicket taker. He first dismissed Rahane via a top spinner, then prised out the impressive Tripathi and could've also had Smith the next ball, but Harbhajan dropped a simple catch at deep square leg. However, it didn't cost MI much as the off-spinner made amends by scalping Smith in the very next over. RPS managed to reach 126/3 after 16 overs. With Dhoni struggling with his timing and 3 of the remaining 4 overs to be bowled by Bumrah and McClenaghan, a par score was on the cards. 

Both Stokes and Dhoni were dismissed in quick succession but as he has often done this season, Manoj Tiwary batted beautifully. He took 11 off Johnson's final over (17th of the innings) and then again, 10 off the 20th over (by Bumrah) to ensure that RPS finished with a par score of 160. For RPS, Rahul Tripathi, who's been one of the finds of the season, was the most impressive batsman, scoring 45 off 31 balls (including 2 sixes) while Manoj Tiwary played a crucial cameo at the end, scoring 22 off 13 balls. For MI, despite going for 10 runs off his final over, Bumrah was the most impressive bowler, conceding less than 30 runs off his full quota and accounting for Dhoni and Tiwary. Karn Sharma, playing his first game for MI, wasn't afraid of flighting the ball and pitching it up while ripping his leg breaks, and although he went for 39 runs off his 4 overs, he snared both the openers.  

MI batting: Middle order stutters, Rohit motors along

A target of 161 wasn't daunting, esp. considering that MI chased down a target of 199 with nearly 5 overs to spare, just four days back. The hosts may have also been hoping for dew later on, given that they chose to chase. RPS started with the off-spin of Washington Sundar but despite a quiet first over, the Buttler-Parthiv duo plundered runs off the next 3 overs thereby ensuring that MI was sitting comfortably at 35/0 at the end of 4 overs, well ahead of the required run rate. The introduction of Stokes in the 5th over, however, changed the complexion of the chase. He immediately accounted for his England team-mate Buttler, who fell trying to hit a slower one. Stokes could've also had Nitesh Rana in the same over, had Manoj Tiwary moved his hands slightly forward to gobble up a low offering at 1st slip. This wicket maiden proved crucial as Smith changed his bowlers around smartly and MI lost both Rana and Parthiv, with both attempting to up the scoring rate. 

MI threw in Karn Sharma at the loss of Parthiv's wicket (at 60/3), possibly to counter the leg spin of Tahir, and the strategy seemed to work for a short while as the two Sharmas added 26 off the next 3 overs. There were a few nervy moments as Tahir had an LBW shout, off a googly, against Rohit turned down (hit outside the line of off-stump) and then Manoj Tiwary dropped his second catch of the evening, when Karn chipped a simple grab at covers. Once again, Smith turned to Stokes and once again the burly all-rounder delivered. He accounted for Karn off the first ball of his second over. At 86/4 in the 13th over, MI needed 75 off 47 balls, but they must have been confident at this juncture, given that the in-form Pollard came to the crease and Rohit looked in good touch. The Mumbai skipper was especially severe on Imran Tahir, plundering 21 runs off the leggie's 13 balls (inclusive of a six and 3 boundaries), and in the process proved to the world that he hadn't forgotten smashing leg spinners. This calculated assault meant that going into the 2nd strategic timeout, MI needed just 39 runs off the last 24 balls. 

However, as has happened quite often during this IPL, the timeout scalped a batsman immediately after resumption. Off the very first ball of the 17th over, Pollard tried to hit Tahir out of the ground but was caught at wide long-off. Hardik Pandya and Rohit took no further chances off Tahir's final over and just 4 came off that one. 35 off 18 started looking a bit uncomfortable for MI but Pandya hit Unadkat for a couple of boundaries in the 18th over, thereby bringing the target down to 24 off 12. Once again, Smith entrusted Stokes with the crucial 19th over and Stokes produced an over of the highest quality. His pinpoint fast yorkers proved tough for both Pandya and Rohit to get under, and the over cost just 7 runs. The tension was rising in the MI camp as the hosts needed 17 off the final over, to be bowled by Unadkat. 

The Final Over: Wickets, Sixes, Drama

The stage was set. The Saurashtra seamer, still only 25, last played for India four years back and has had a couple of impressive Ranji seasons since then. On the other hand, both MI batsmen have been quite adept at successfully solving such equations. Pandya had plundered 30 runs off the final over in the previous MI-RPS encounter this season (off Dinda) when MI were batting first and was also responsible for the successful chase against KKR, where he and Rana plundered 58 runs off the last 20 balls to take MI to an unbelievable victory. Rohit himself has been instrumental in a very similar victory in IPL 2009, when he took 26 runs off the final over (21 was needed) to take his then franchise, Deccan Chargers, to an astounding victory over KKR. The target in that match? 161!

19.1 - Pandya tried to smash the first ball out of the park. It was a slower one delivered on a good length and even though Pandya made a good connection, RPS' Man Friday, Ben Stokes, plucked out a brilliant catch diving forward at deep extra cover. This was the first time Pandya had been dismissed during a chase in IPL 2017. 

19.2 - The batsmen had crossed over while the catch was being taken and hence it was Rohit, who had completed his first half-century in this edition, on strike. Unadkat bowled a similar ball but this time Rohit got the measure of it and clobbered it over long-on for a 6. The equation was brought down to 11 off 4 balls. 

19.3 - The next delivery produced a critical moment in the match. Rohit moved slightly across, outside the off-stump, and Unadkat floated a slower ball fuller in length and wider of the guideline. Everybody thought it was a wide but not the umpire. He had seen the batsman move from his original stance before the ball was delivered and deemed that the ball wasn't wide enough for him to get a connection. Replays suggested that his first assumption was right but the 2nd one wasn't. Even with that shuffle, the ball was out of MI skipper's reach and should have been called a wide. So instead of a more manageable 10 off 4 balls, the equation became a more daunting 11 off 3 balls.   

19.4 - Next ball, Unadkat bowled another slower one but shortened his length considerably. Rohit tried to repeat the dose but could only manage a top edge and the skier was taken by the bowler. This was a huge wicket. The bowler hit the back of his head hard while catching that but thankfully no damage was done and he was able to continue. 11 was now needed off 2 balls. MI could only hope for a tie now (unless Unadkat bowled a no-ball or wide) and with both Rohit and Pandya dismissed, those hopes were rather slim.

19.5 - Harbhajan smoked a fuller ball outside off to deep cover and the batsmen ran for a couple, possibly praying for a couple of wides and a six off the remaining balls, to hang on to a tie. Those prayers too went unanswered as Mitch McClenaghan was run out at the bowler's end. The man responsible? Ben Stokes, who else! 10 was now needed off the final delivery and the RPS victory was now a mere formality.

19.6 - The final ball from Unadkat was a length ball and Harbhajan moved across to slog a six over wide long-on. Maximum result off the final delivery but still not enough to ensure any points for MI.

It was another close encounter between the two Maharashtra franchises and once again, RPS defeated MI by a close margin. This was also their 2nd consecutive win over MI at Wankhede. With this victory, RPS moved to the 4th spot in the points table and continued their strong revival. Mumbai must be ruing their missed opportunities but in all fairness, they were undone by the brilliance of Stokes (who was adjudged player of the match) and the calmness of Unadkat.

IPL turned 10: How has it evolved?

The Indian Premier League, which was born in 2008, has turned 10! And look at how things have changed around us - when Lalit Modi declared the tournament open on 18th April 2008, Barrack Obama was yet to become the US President, Virat Kohli was still 4 months shy of debuting for India and the Chinese economy was still growing in double digits. Lalit Modi is no longer associated with the league but during this time, IPL has grown to become one of the world's most valuable sports leagues (worth $4.2 billion and with revenue of $378m in 2016). It'll be interesting, however, to see how various on-field aspects of the game have evolved in these exciting nine years.

I've attempted to evaluate the performances, season-by-season, using tournament stats. Using this approach, we try to address the following questions:

• Are teams scoring faster now?
• What is a safe score to defend?
• Are batsmen more consistent now?
• Are bowlers bowling better now?
• Are teams evenly balanced?

1. Are teams scoring faster now?

Highest team totals

For this analysis, I've shortlisted the top 30 team scores for each season. Further, I've created separate 25-run buckets for team totals (151-175, 176-200, 201-225, 226-250, 251-275). Then, I've plotted, season-wise, the number of occurrences of team totals (or frequency) within different buckets. Further, on the right side Y axis, I've plotted the median of the top 30 scores in each season. The chart is produced below:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Surprise! Surprise! I was expecting the team totals to climb and show an upward trend. However, if one observes closely, it's clear that there's an increasing trend of more scores between 176-200 vis-a-vis 200+ scores (more orange than grey!), esp. when compared to IPL 2008 and 2010. For example, in 2008, amongst the top 30 team totals, there were 11 scores above 200 while in the last two editions, that figure has come down to 6 (in 2016) and 7 (in 2015), respectively. The median score has remained fairly stable (except for 2009) even though the highest median score was achieved in the first season itself, and has been matched twice since. IPL 2009 season is a bit of an aberration since that edition was held in South Africa (due to general elections in India) where batting conditions are relatively tougher.

Highest match aggregates  

Is the above outcome an anomaly? It'll be useful to look at a similar analysis based on match aggregates. 

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In IPL 2008 and 2010 (2009 again an exception), there were 5 and 4 instances, respectively, of match aggregates exceeding 400. This too has come down to 2 in each of the last two editions. However, the 351-400 bucket shows higher frequency in the last few years. The median match aggregate has hovered around 350.

Conclusion

Based on the above evidence, it's safe to conclude the following:

Teams are scoring more consistently between 175-200 instead of 200+. This is further demonstrated by looking at a statistical analysis of the top 50 team totals in each season. While the average score (of top 50 scores), at 185, has remained the same in IPL 2008 as well as in 2015 and 2016, the variance and standard deviation has come down in the last two seasons. The steeper normal distribution curves in IPL 2015 and 2016 clearly bear this out (comprising top 50 team totals).

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

This could be pinned down to batting strategy where teams, at the start of the innings, are now deliberately targeting 175-200 instead of taking additional risks to score 200+, believing that this score is safe to defend. This can have an impact on the team composition as well. Of course, teams will have different strategies for different venues - at Bengaluru, teams typically target 200+ while at Eden Gardens, 160-170 is considered as a good score. But alternately, its also possible that the bowlers have become adept at keeping the runs down as well as picking up wickets at regular intervals.

2. What is a safe score?

Based on empirical evidence over the last 9 IPLs, let's try to deduce a safe target when batting first. For this, we've adopted two approaches. First, we've looked at all matches where the team batting first has won with a margin of 15+ runs i.e. comfortable victories. Here's what we get:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In IPL 2008, the average target set when the team batting first won by a margin of 15 runs or more, was 193 and 12 such wins were recorded during that season. The corresponding figures for IPL 2016 were 193 runs and 11 wins. The average target across all editions is 180.

Next, we've taken those matches where the chasing team has won a close match with only 3 balls (or less) remaining. Here's how it looks:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In IPL 2008, the average target which was successfully chased down with 3 balls or less remaining, was 174 and 9 such victories were recorded in that season. The corresponding figures for IPL 2016 were 173 runs and 8 wins. The average target across seasons is 163.

Comparing this with the above figure of 180 (winning comfortably when batting first) and taking into account the 3 balls in hand, it's reasonable to assume (based on empirical evidence) that 180+ is generally a safe target when batting first. For the above analysis, abandoned matches, ties and matches by Duckworth-Lewis method have not been considered.

3. Are batsmen more consistent now? 

How about batsmen? The record for most runs in a season has been improved from 616 runs in IPL 2008 (Shaun Marsh) to 973 runs last year (Virat Kohli). While Marsh scored at a very impressive strike rate of 139.68, both Kohli and Warner (who got 848 runs in 2016) got their runs at an incredible strike rate of nearly 152 per 100 balls. While only three centuries were struck in 2008, Virat Kohli himself scored four centuries in 2016 (overall six centuries were scored). What do the numbers tell us? On a season-by-season analysis of the runs per innings (RPI is slightly different from batting average) and strike-rate (runs per 100 balls) of all batsmen who've scored 300+ runs, we get the following:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

In the inaugural edition, the average runs per innings (RPI) by all the top batsmen who aggregated 300+ during the season, was 31.3 and the average strike rate was 137.3 per 100 balls. The RPI has gone up from around 29 between 2012-14, to 33.4 in IPL 2016. This is the highest across all editions. Further, the strike rate has dipped only marginally, from 137.3 in 2008 to 136.2 in 2016. Hence, it would be safe to conclude that the batsmen are managing more consistency now without compromising too much on the strike rate. Also, increasingly there are more top order batsmen in the Top 10 batsmen list than in the past.

4. Are bowlers' bowling better now?

Let's look at how bowlers' performances have evolved since IPL 2008. For this, I've taken two important parameters - economy rate and bowling strike rate (i.e. no. of balls / wicket). Bowling average has deliberately not been considered since in a T20 match, balls remaining in the innings are a more important resource vis-a-vis wickets in hand. So, I've first taken the bowlers who've taken at least 10 wickets in a season and then tweaked the economy rate computation - instead of runs conceded per over, I've considered runs conceded per 100 balls (let's call it RP100B). This change in computation thus makes it directly comparable to batsmen's strike rate. Here is what we get:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

While the RP100B had dipped to 120-125 between 2010 and 2014 editions, the figure has again risen up and is touching 131 in the last two editions. The average strike rate has, more or less, remained in the 18-20 balls / wicket range.

Further, I slice the above by bowling type i.e. pace or spin. This is how it looks like:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Over the years, except for IPL 2015, spinners have done better than pacers in keeping the runs down. On the other hand, as is the norm across formats, pacers have managed slightly better strike rates than spinners. During 2009-2014, the spinners were significantly better than the pacers in keeping the runs in check and they were close to the pacers in terms of strike rates too. This isn't surprising given that this period saw some world-class spinners operate - Warne, Kumble, Muralitharan, Harbhajan, and also saw some excellent talent emerge - Ashwin, Jadeja, Sunil Narine (before his modified action), Amit Mishra, Chahal, Axar Patel etc. Over the last couple of seasons, apart from ever-green performers like Malinga and Bravo, there's a group of seamers who've impressed - Bhubhaneshwar Kumar, Mustafizur, McClenaghan, Bumrah, Russell, Chris Morris etc.

5. Are teams evenly balanced?

One of the more remarkable and less-talked-about things with respect to IPL, is the concept of "equal purses" for all franchises. It started out as "equal auction purse" in 2008 ($5m for each team) i.e. all teams were allowed to spend upto $5m on buying players in the auction. This figure was increased to $9m in 2011. However, there was no limit on what teams could spend outside the auctions (i.e. trading players between each other). This was then further regulated in 2013 when IPL governing body stipulated an upper limit of $12.5m for the entire squad ("equal purse"). This equal purse concept has ensured a level playing field.

I've tried to analyze the competitiveness of the league for each season, using a measure called Herfindahl Index (Economics students will be aware of this concept). It's a measure of the size of firms in relation to the industry and an indicator of the amount of competition among them. HHI is an economic concept widely applied in competition law, antitrust and also technology management. It is defined as the sum of the squares of the market shares of the firms within the industry (sometimes limited to the 50 largest firms), where the market shares are expressed as fractions. The result is proportional to the average market share, weighted by market share. The results are to be interpreted as follows:

An HHI < 0.01 indicates a highly competitive industry.
An HHI < 0.15 indicates an unconcentrated industry.
An HHI 0.15 - 0.25 indicates moderate concentration.
An HHI > 0.25 indicates high concentration.

To compute IPL HHI, I've used the points garnered by a team during a season and divided by the total points available during that season (comparable to market shares). The IPL HHI is charted out below:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

The first thing that jumps out - more the number of teams, more competitive the league. In 2011, when two new teams were introduced, the HHI fell to 0.106. Similarly, in 2012 and 2013 when there were 9 teams in the league, the HHI was 0.121 and 0.125, respectively. For an 8 team format, 0.131 is the lowest HHI, achieved in 2010 and then again in 2016. It's fair to conclude, looking at these figures, that the tournament has managed to stay highly competitive over the last nine years.

Conclusion

The above is simply an ex-post analysis of IPL data over the last nine years. There are multiple ways to analyze the same data and I've tried to take a different approach as compared to the traditional methods. Some of the conclusions may appear to be intuitively obvious. Yet, the humble attempt is to see whether empirical data leads to the same conclusions.

"Sun Shines" brightly on Federer

"The comeback is over", declared Roger Federer after his win over Rafael Nadal in the Miami Open final. Many would disagree with this assessment - they believe that moment had already arrived a couple of months back in Melbourne. However, what cannot be disputed is the grit and resilience displayed by the 18-slam winner over the last three weeks. At Indian Wells, the elegant Swiss didn't drop a set, was nearly impenetrable on serve (dropping serve just once) and breezed through the entire tournament without breaking a sweat (see my blog). In hot and humid Miami, things were much tougher though. Federer came through a gruelling 4th round encounter against Bautista Agut in two tie-breaks, had to save two match points against Berdych in the quarters (3rd set tie-break) and then in the semis, managed to overcome the red-hot Kyrgios in 3 very tight tie-break sets in a match that is already being billed as the match-of-the-year. In comparison, the final against his old nemesis, seemed like a cakewalk.

Road to the finals

R16 vs. Roberto Bautista Agut - 1st stiff challenge since Dubai

Coming through a tough draw, Federer dropped 2 sets and had to endure 7 tie-breaks, en-route to the final. His first real challenge didn't come, as was expected, from Del Potro in the 3rd round (6-3, 6-4) but from the 14th-seed, Roberto Bautista Agut in the next round. The Spaniard had overcome the impressive Sam Querrey in the previous round and matched Federer shot-for-shot in the pre-quarters. He first successfully fought-off three consecutive break points in his first service game and then broke Federer at 4-4 to earn the opportunity to serve out the first set. Unfortunately, nerves got the better of him as Federer upped the ante. The Spaniard quickly went down 0-40 and was broken on love, when he double-faulted. The set ultimately went to a tie-break and saw Federer rushing to the net on decisive moments to clinch the breaker, 7-5. The Indian Wells champion broke in the very first game of the 2nd set but the tenacious Spaniard broke back immediately to level terms. With Federer's formidable first serve as well as forehand misfiring on more than a few occasions, and Bautista Agut continuing to play solidly from both wings, the 2nd set too went to a tie-breaker. The Swiss again favoured the net on decisive moments and won the breaker easily (7-4) to take the set and match. Overall, it was a scratchy performance by Federer, putting only 49% of first serves in, making 32 unforced errors and converting only 2 of 10 break point opportunities. However, he continued to play aggressively, came to the net often, hit 30 winners overall and came through in nearly two hours.

QF vs. Tomas Berdych - saved two match points

Federer's next opponent was Tomas Berdych, who hadn't dropped a set till then, and even though the no. 4 seed held a 17-6 head-to-head advantage over the tall Czech and had demolished him in straight sets at the Australian Open 2017, the Swiss knew that he had to fire from the outset. That mental alertness showed as he broke Berdych in the very first game of the match (the first time Berdych was broken in the tournament) and snuffed out a break-point on his own serve to consolidate the break. Both players then held serve easily for their next couple of service games, with their forehands inflicting more damage. In the 7th game however, Federer increased the tempo on Berdych's serve. From 15-0 down, Federer unleashed the full array of strokes - first hitting a forehand down-the-line winner, then ripping a backhand cross-court winner, then hitting an inside-out forehand cross-court winner to bring up two break points, and finally, going up a 2nd break by employing a delicious, loopy, backhand dropshot winner that rendered Berdych unsure, flat-footed and motionless. Federer served out the first set by sending an ace down the middle, taking the set 6-2. This demolition job looked very similar to their 3rd round encounter Down Under where Federer ran away with a 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 win. However, Berdych was in no mood to let history repeat itself. He began serving huge, used a judicious mix of power and spin from both wings, and started finding angles as well as depth on the court, to keep Federer at bay. Federer himself was playing at a decent level but Berdych's level, esp. on the return games, had gone up several notches. Finally, the Czech broke his opponent's serve in the 8th game and then made a few brilliant forays to the net on his own service game, to take the 2nd set 6-3, thereby leveling the match.

The early part of set 3 was very entertaining with both players playing deep & aggressive, making lovely half-volley pickups from the baseline, and generally committing fewer unforced errors. However, in the 6th game, Federer drew first blood, finally converting his 4th break point of the set as Berdych made a few unforced errors trying to hit big on the forehand side. Then, serving for the match at 5-3, it was Federer's turn to make unforced errors - first an error in judgement followed by one in execution - as he was broken to love. In the next game, he had a match point on Berdych's serve at 30-40 but Berdych quickly erased that by a huge first serve and went on to hold to level the 3rd set at 5-5. The set, inevitably, moved on to a tie-break and Berdych, who was hitting crisp winners from both wings, had a slight upper hand. He clinched the first mini-break but Federer came back strongly, winning the next two points on Berdych's serve. Berdych got the mini-break back immediately as Federer double-faulted, and then he forced Federer to hit a backhand long at 4-4 to earn an opportunity to serve out the match. An amazing backhand down-the-line winner brought up two match points for Berdych (6-4) but then he netted a forehand and Federer followed up with two huge serves to go ahead 7-6. Down match point, Berdych committed a double fault to bring the curtains down on a topsy-turvy, but highly entertaining match. Both players hit 37 winners apiece but in a game of wafer-thin margins, Federer committed fewer unforced errors (22 to Berdych's 27) and got out of jail in another 2-hour battle.    

SF vs. Nick Kyrgios - three tie-breakers

For the 2nd time in exactly two weeks, two of the hottest players of 2017 faced up to each other. Federer and Kyrgios were supposed to play a highly anticipated quarter-final at Indian Wells (see my blog) before the Aussie had to pull out due to food-poisoning. Both players play a similar brand of attacking, first-strike tennis by taking the ball early. Both came off tight QF encounters and everybody was expecting a high-octane match with short points decided by ample dozes of winners and unforced errors. What we got, instead, was a match of the highest quality.

Federer, as is his wont, was off the blocks quickly, holding serve easily and putting pressure on Kyrgios' serve. He earned three break points in the first two return games, set up by a slew of exquisite winners, but couldn't convert any of them as Kyrgios' huge serve came in handy at the right moments. Having survived these nervy moments, Kyrgios started getting more confident. He comfortably held in the 6th game and broke Federer in the 7th game, aided by a couple of sumptuous backhands. While Kyrgios consolidated his break via an impressive service game to go up 5-3, Federer was clearly struggling to hold in the crucial 9th game. He was thrice taken to deuce but managed to hold his serve. With Kyrgios' serve looking overwhelming, the first set looked like a few shots away. Instead, Federer played an incredible return game, mixing offence with defence, forcing Kyrgios into errors and breaking back to level things up, at 5-5. He even held a set point on Kyrgios' serve at 30-40, 6-5 but the Australian again came up with huge deliveries to take the set to a tie-break. The pair exchanged a couple of mini-breaks early on but some audacious play by Federer on 5-5, helped him secure another set point; this time on his serve. He was to be denied when he shot wide while trying to rip a backhand down-the-line. After winning a couple of points each on serve, Kyrgios secured another mini-break to go up 9-8 and gain an opportunity to serve on set point (his 2nd of the set). However, Federer was to deny him again through a magical backhand winner down-the-line. Then, Kyrgios tried to go for extra on his second serve and committed a double fault to hand Federer a 4th set point opportunity and this time, Federer clinched it to go one set up (11-9 in the tie-break).

The first 6 service games in the 2nd set were routine holds with no break point opportunities for either player, and featured four love-holds as well as a tweener by Kyrgios. Then in the 7th game, Federer secured two break points but was unable to convert either of them as the Aussie held on. This seemed like a minor aberration as normal services were restored thereafter, with both players comfortably holding their serves. At 5-5, Federer tried to force the issue on the Aussie's serve through two remarkable backhand winners, but Kyrgios' serve bailed him out again. Federer meanwhile had no such troubles on his serve and lost just 5 points on his serve throughout the 2nd set. A tie-breaker followed, the 2nd of this match and the 5th consecutive one that these guys have played! Unlike the 1st set, both guys started off soundly on their serves. The Swiss maestro was the first to break away, playing aggressively and forcing the error, to go up 5-4 with two chances on his serve to close out the match. Kyrgios got the crucial mini-break back by employing an amazing forehand down-the-line winner, hit while back-pedaling to a deep ball on his backhand corner. Federer held a match point at 6-5 on Kyrgios' serve but failed to capitalize as his backhand slice landed slightly long. His next match point came at 8-7 but shockingly, he dumped an 88 mph second serve return at the bottom of the net. Some excellent serving by the Aussie from thereon, ensured that he won the tie-break 11-9 and leveled the match.

If the Swiss champ was disappointed at missing out on the opportunities in the 2nd set, it clearly didn't show as he held serve comfortably in the 3rd set too. He got a look-in on Kyrgios' serve in the 4th game, producing exceptional tennis but the Aussie matched him stroke-for-stroke and held on. The pattern would repeat in the 10th game as Federer forced a deuce but couldn't break his opponent's resolve or his serve. His own service remained solid and he dropped just 6 points on his serve in the 3rd set. The pair threw everything at each other - huge serves, forehand drives, backhand slices, serve and volley, drop shots - but neither could surge ahead and in time, the inevitable tie-break arrived. The two-time Miami champion started the tie-break with a moment of magic - an insane backhand half-volley pickup that was hit down-the-line to successfully pass the advancing Kyrgios. Nonetheless, it was the youngster who won the first mini-break when Federer went wide with his forehand. Kyrgios had an opportunity to serve out the match at 5-4 but he was first undone a deep backhand from Federer that he swatted out and then, shockingly, he served a double fault to hand a 3rd match point to Federer. The Swiss was in no mood to let that one go and produced a big first serve out wide to force a backhand error and wrap up the match in 3 hours and 10 minutes. It was a stunning match, played at a very high level throughout - Federer outhit Kyrgios in the winners department (54 vs. 38) and crucially, in a matchup between big servers, won more 1st serve return points (25% vs. 15%).

Grand Finale - Fedal XXXVII

As compared to Federer, Nadal had a relatively easier path to the finals. After astonishingly losing the first set 6-0 against Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 3rd round, Rafa went from strength to strength. He didn't lose another set leading up to the finals, and his most impressive victory came over the in-form Jack Sock in the quarter-finals - he outplayed the 13th seed American, 6-2, 6-3. Having spent considerably less time on court than his arch rival, and given the slowish court speed at Miami, many would've considered Nadal as the favourite going in to this 3rd Federer-Nadal meeting of 2017. 

Federer's serve was under pressure in the first game of the match, and like their Indian Wells encounter, Nadal earned two break point opportunities. But the Swiss erased both those opportunities via a persistent, attacking game plan - hitting a forehand winner to end a 15 shot rally on the first one, and then advancing to the net to cut off a backhand volley & snuff out the second one. The next two games went off smoothly with both players holding their serves comfortably. Nadal had clearly come out with a more aggressive game plan, ripping his double-handed backhand flat and cross-court on most occasions. Both players were going hammer and tongs and this set the tone for the next five games in the opening set. There were five break point opportunities over the next four games but neither player could capitalize. It was almost like the initial rounds of a heavyweight boxing bout where both boxers throw enough jabs but refrain from landing a decisive uppercut. Then, in the 8th game, Nadal's dogged resistance was finally broken. After saving two more break points in the game, Nadal couldn't cope up with Federer's ferocious forehand. The Swiss set up his 3rd break point of the game (and 6th of the set) through a forehand cross-court return winner and followed that up with an inside out forehand drive, that had Nadal scampering to his forehand corner and dumping a weak response into the net, to secure the decisive break. Federer then held on comfortably to win the first set, 6-3.

The Aussie Open finalist pair started the 2nd set serving confidently and faced no hurdles in the first 6 games. In fact, Nadal just lost three points on his serve in his first 3 service games while Federer lost none! Then, in the 7th game, Federer started tightening the screws. He got his first break point of the set thanks to an explosive backhand drive. The Spaniard quickly wiped that out through an intelligent drop shot followed by a forehand volley winner. And even though he presented Federer with another break point opportunity in that game, the Swiss couldn't take advantage and Nadal held on. The pumped up Spaniard then got his first two points on Federer's serve (in the set) but couldn't go any further as Federer held to 30. In the next game, Federer again started applying pressure. At 30-30, Federer got slightly lucky as his backhand caught the tape and had Nadal scrambling forward. The weak response from the Spaniard was met by a very intelligent lob deep into the backhand corner to bring up another break point. This time Federer was not letting it go, his backhand down-the-line service return catching Rafa off-guard and forcing him to hit long. Serving for the championship at 5-4, Federer started with a double-fault. Then, as if to make up, he finished a 17-shot rally with a bit of Fed magic - a spectacular backhand half-volley pickup winner directed down-the-line, from the baseline. At 30-30, he produced another one to bring up match point - an outrageous inside out forehand cross-court winner. A huge serve on match point was enough to draw an error from Rafa and secure his 14th career victory over the Spaniard.  

Although the final never reached the dizzying heights of the previous two rounds, Federer did enough to win, 6-3, 6-4. He hit 29 winners to Nadal's 15 and even made fewer unforced errors (19 to 23). Crucially, Federer converted 2 out of 9 break point opportunities while Nadal couldn't convert any of the 4 opportunities he got.

Third Sunshine Double

By winning his 3rd Miami title (and having won Indian Wells a couple of weeks back), Roger Federer completed his 3rd Sunshine Double, eleven years after his previous one. This was also his 3rd straight victory over Nadal in 2017 (4th consecutive overall) as well as his 3rd tournament victory of this year. The tournament victory also marked his 26th ATP Masters 1000 title and 91st tour-level tournament overall. His ATP ranking has improved to no. 4 (from no. 17 at the beginning of Australian Open this year) and he's currently leading the singles Race to London. The Swiss, at a ripe of age of 35, has a realistic chance of becoming world no. 1 again. However, he's decided not to rush into things and is likely to skip the entire clay court season (except for the French Open), in order to focus on Wimbledon, the US Open and the hard-court season. His 19-1 start to the year is his best since 2006 i.e. around the time when he was winning everything in sight (except French Open) and the year in which he racked up an incredible 92-5 season record. He's unlikely to match that in 2017. However, since these 19 wins include a 3-0 record against Nadal, April 2017 may just feel more pleasant than April 2006!