US Open 2017: The "Injured" Open!

Andy Murray announced yesterday that he would be pulling out of this year's US Open due to the ongoing hip injury. The British no. 1 and the 2012 US Open champion, who hasn't played since Wimbledon, has seen his no. 1 ranking slip away in this absence. He is the 5th player in the ATP Top 11 rankings to have pulled out of this year's US Open. Both the last year's finalists, Wawrinka and Djokovic, have already pulled out. And so have the 2014 finalist, Kei Nishikori, and the 2016 Wimbledon finalist, Milos Raonic. In fact, Wawrinka, Djokovic and Nishikori have called time on their 2017 season. And Roger Federer, the player who set this very trend last year, comes into his 17th US Open after recovering from a minor niggle.

It's hard to recall the last time when so many top players withdrew from a Grand Slam, on account of injury. Hence, it might seem that the field is wide open and that we might even see a surprise winner this year. However, what many fail to appreciate is the depth in men's tennis, esp. in the top 50. Left in the fray still, are four former US Open champions as well as five former semi-finalists. Let's look at the strong contenders for this year's Open and how the draw plays out.

Strong contenders

As the new world no. 1, Rafael Nadal comes into the tournament as a strong contender. His performances since achieving the historic La Decima in Paris, have been less assuring though. After the surprising defeat in the 4th round of Wimbledon, he lost in the 2nd round in Montreal and then was blasted off the court by Nick Kyrgios in the quarter-finals at Cincinnati. He's got a relatively easy passage till the 4th round where he could meet either Fabio Fognini or Tomas Berdych, both dangerous players. From there on, the path becomes difficult as he could square off against the Cincinnati Masters Champion, Grigor Dimitrov, in the quarters and then could meet his 2017 bête noire, Roger Federer in what would be their first ever US Open meeting.

With the exit of Murray, Roger Federer, is the next highest seed and he would like to make 2017 as his fourth 3-slam year, remarkably a decade after the last one. He was having a dream run after winning Wimbledon without dropping a set and then reaching the finals at Toronto before his chronic back problem returned in a straight-set defeat against Alexander Zverev. He skipped Cincinnati as a result and hence is coming into Flushing Meadows with a suspect back, which hasn't been thoroughly tested against the top players on the hard courts. And he's been handed a tough draw. Federer opens against the talented American teenager Frances Tiafoe (their 2nd meeting this year) and then, could face two-time semi-finalist, Mikhail Youzhny in the 2nd round, either of Fernando Verdasco or Feliciano Lopez in the 3rd round, the Cincinnati finalist Nick Kyrgios in the 4th round and possibly the 6th seed, Dominic Thiem in the quarters. In a way, this isn't dissimilar to the Australian Open 2017 where he was handed out a tough draw, mainly due to his ranking, and was coming into that tournament without match practice. If he's fit, then Federer will continue to mount a serious challenge for his 20th Grand Slam title and at 36, he continues to be one of the best hard-court players on tour.

The Wimbledon finalist and the 2014 US Open champion, Marin Cilic, also comes into the final grand slam of the year, on the back of an injury. He pulled out of both Montreal as well as Cincinnati Masters on account of an abductor injury. He doesn't have any major obstacles till the quarters (he could meet the rejuvenated David Ferrer in the 4th round), where he could meet the Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and his potential semi-final opponent would be the rising star and the in-form German, Alexander Zverev. Like Stan Wawrinka, the 28-year old Croat generally brings his A-game to the Grand Slams and he's at his best at the US Open (also a semi-finalist in 2015, and quarter-finalist in 2009 and 2012). He's definitely a strong contender for his 2nd US Open. 

Dark Horses

So who could spring a surprise? Could it be one of the old warhorses? In a depleted field, Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer and Monfils could fancy their chances to land their first slam. Or would it be one of the young guns who'll make a breakthrough at Flushing Meadows, much like Safin, Hewitt and Roddick in the early 2000s? Zverev, Thiem, Kyrgios will also think that their time has come. And what about the in-form Dimitrov, the late bloomer Querrey or the 2009 champion Del Potro?

The 26-year old Bulgarian, Grigor Dimitrov, is the most successful hard-court player this year. He's 24-6 on hard-courts and with 3 titles, is equal with Federer for most number of hard-court titles in 2017. He won the Cincinnati Masters without dropping a set, had a great start to the year and came very close to his first Slam Final at Melbourne (see my previous blog). He's in the same half of the draw as Nadal and Federer, and that would mean he needs to go through both of them to win his first slam (something he's done only once in 15 meetings with them). 

What does one make of Alexander Zverev? He's had a great season so far, having won two ATP Masters 1000 titles (beating Federer in the final at Montreal & beating Djokovic in the final at Rome) and 5 titles in total. Yet, he's failed to progress beyond the 4th round in the three Grand Slams this year, as success at the highest level continues to elude him (yet to reach the quarters at any slam). He's seeded in the top 4 for the first time at a Grand Slam, and has an easy path till the quarters. May be this is the tournament where the younger Zverev sibling, breaks his Grand Slam hoodoo.

Nick Kyrgios hasn't won any titles this year. He hasn't progressed beyond the 2nd round in any of the Grand Slams this year. So what makes him a dark horse? His performance against big players on big stages on the hard-courts, sets him apart. He demolished Nadal in Cincinnati, knocked out Djokovic at both Indian Wells and Acapulco, without dropping a set in any of those matches. He also has two wins over Zverev. He had a very close match with Federer in Miami, losing in three tie-break sets. His explosive game poses a grave threat to all top players but questions remain over his temperament. Despite this, he has enough firepower to cause a flutter or two in the top half of the draw. 

The Wimbledon semi-finalist, Sam Querrey has had a late resurgence of sorts. He's won two titles this year (both in Mexico incidentally) and was a semi-finalist at Wimbledon where he upset Tsonga and Murray along the way. Even more impressive was his title win at Acapulco where he went through Goffin, Thiem, Kyrgios and Nadal. He's got a kind draw and should progress to the quarters with relative ease. Here, Zverev lays in wait in what would be their first ever encounter. A repeat of the Wimbledon semi-final (vs. Cilic) can't be ruled out.

The year's final slam may have been depleted on account of pullouts but this gives a great opportunity for someone to make a mark. Will we get a first-time slam winner?     

     

Sri Lanka test series: Key takeaways for India

This blog is available as a video blog on https://youtu.be/LytF_FFwfWY

A three-test series, billed as part of the first full tour by an Indian team since 2009, ended in 11 days of play. Sri Lanka managed to cross 300 only once in the first two tests, and then, couldn't even cross 200 in the final test. Such was India's domination that they had a first innings lead in excess of 300 in all three tests and enforced follow-on in the last two matches. When one team scores nearly 2,000 runs in three and a half innings (avg. RPW of 61), while the other team cannot even manage 1,500 runs in six innings (avg. RPW of 24), it demonstrates, not just the different performance levels, but also the gulf in class between the two sides. The winning team, therefore, finds it difficult to take positives from the series. However, on account of bold team selection as well as some luck, India managed some positives from this series.

Hardik Pandya's emergence as an all-rounder

With 178 runs in 3 innings and 4 wickets in the 32 overs he was asked to send down, Hardik Pandya began repaying the faith that the team management has shown in him, over the last 12 months or so. His rise through the ranks has been meteoric. A first class debut in November 2013 was followed by selection in the Mumbai Indians playing XI in the 2015 IPL season. The India limited overs cap didn't take too long and he impressed one and all with his explosive batting and effective bowling. In fact, it was the rapid improvement in his bowling that encouraged the Indian team management to earmark him for the longest form of the game. A casual glance at his batting numbers in this series, esp. his strike rates, may give the impression that he played the same way as he does in the ODIs and T20s. But while he did provide the impetus in the first test by scoring a quickfire 50, his maturity stood out in the 3rd test. He strode in at 322/6 after the fall of Ashwin's wicket and India quickly lost Saha at 339. On a pitch that was giving some assistance to the bowlers, Pandya first stitched together a patient 62-run partnership with Kuldeep Yadav and then, when running out of partners, smashed 70 out of the last 86 runs while consuming 42 of the last 69 balls. Three out of the four wickets he took, were that of established batsmen. He also pouched four catches, second only to Rahane amongst non-wicket-keepers. A genuine all-rounder is worth his weight in gold and given that the overseas tours of South Africa, England and Australia are coming up, a pace-bowling all-rounder like Pandya could make a big difference.

Kuldeep Yadav firmly established

It was only due to the suspension of Jadeja from the 3rd test, that allowed the left-arm chinaman, Kuldeep Yadav, to play a test match in this series. Despite his series-winning performance in his debut test against Australia in March, once the captain and coach had made up their minds to play Pandya as the third seamer, it was always difficult for Kuldeep to feature in the starting XI. However, it didn't take Kuldeep too long to make a mark. He ran through the Sri Lankan middle and lower order in the first innings to hasten them to 135 all out and then broke a dangerous partnership between Dinesh Chandimal and Angelo Mathews in the 2nd innings. Overall, he picked up 5 wickets in his only test match at an impressive average of 19 and an even more impressive strike rate of 36 balls per wicket. Once again, the selectors and the Indian team management deserve a lot of credit for blooding this Kanpur lad and what has been very impressive is that Kuldeep has been effective across all formats of the game. The fuller length that Kuldeep prefers is ideally suited for test matches; yet it has worked wonders in the slam bang variety too. This is mainly on account of the disguise that Kuldeep deploys, wherein he's able to bowl both the normal chinaman as well as the wrong-un, with a scrambled seam. Given Ashwin and Jadeja's struggles in the Champions Trophy, Kuldeep would ideally be the no. 1 choice spinner in both ODIs and T20Is. And his performances in the limited opportunities he's got at the test level, should firmly establish him as the no. 3 spinner. In fact, I believe that in the upcoming overseas tours, if India decide to play with 2 spinners, Kuldeep's wrist spin would be far more effective on the bouncy pitches as compared to the finger spin of Ashwin and Jadeja.

KL Rahul continuing from where he left

KL Rahul was in a rich vein of form before injury halted his golden run. Till the 4th test against Australia in Dharamsala, Rahul had hit a half-century in each test of that series including five consecutive ones. Given his form in IPL 2016 and his vastly enhanced attacking strokeplay, the Bangalore lad was supposed to make a big impact in the IPL as well as in the Champions Trophy. Unfortunately, his shoulder injury required a surgery and that meant, 4 months out of the game. Then again, in Sri Lanka, he was laid low by viral fever and had to sit out of the first test at Galle. However, the tall right-hander was amongst runs as soon as he was back in the playing XI. He scored a half-century each in the two innings he batted, thereby becoming the first Indian batsman to score 7 consecutive test 50s. The only worry for Rahul would be that his last 8 test scores in excess of 50, have all ended short of the century mark. Nevertheless, the captain would be very pleased to see Rahul back in the team and his inclusion at the no. 4 spot for the upcoming ODIs is a sure indicator of the high esteem in which Rahul's technique, temperament and performances, are held by the Indian team management. 

Mohammed Shami's successful return from injury

Mohammed Shami, India's best quick bowler in test matches over the last few years, has had long-injury layoffs over the last two and a half years and this has caused him to miss many test matches. He returned to play in the West Indies tour in July 2016 after the knee surgery post-the 2015 World Cup, kept him out of the game for several months. Then, he was laid low again by knee injury against England and he missed out the 2nd half of the England series as well as the entire Australian series. A penetrative, test match class, quick bowler is such a rare commodity for Indian cricket and hence, his performances in this series must have been keenly watched by both selectors as well as the team management. And Shami didn't disappoint. He picked up 10 wickets, which was 3rd behind Ashwin and Jadeja, at a very impressive average of 17.7 and an amazing strike rate of 36.5. He was truly in his elements in the 3rd test, bowling at blistering pace and prising out 5 wickets while conceding less than 50 runs. All this augurs very well for future tours but India needs to manage Shami's workload properly so that there's no recurrence of the knee injury.

India has rested all their main test bowlers for the ODI leg of the tour. While this seems to be a sensible strategy for fast bowlers, at least one of Jadeja or Ashwin should've been part of the squad, as their one-day form, of late, hasn't been impressive. On the other hand, the ODI batting line-up seems to be at full-strength and the likely first choice line-up for the 2019 world cup. Interestingly, while Yuvraj has most likely been left out for good, Dhoni seems to have secured his swansong as his closest rival, Rishab Pant, has been unfairly dropped from the squad. India is expected to experiment and use this series as a build-up to the 2019 world cup. Here's then, wishing for a more competitive one-day series!