US Open 2017: The "Injured" Open!

Andy Murray announced yesterday that he would be pulling out of this year's US Open due to the ongoing hip injury. The British no. 1 and the 2012 US Open champion, who hasn't played since Wimbledon, has seen his no. 1 ranking slip away in this absence. He is the 5th player in the ATP Top 11 rankings to have pulled out of this year's US Open. Both the last year's finalists, Wawrinka and Djokovic, have already pulled out. And so have the 2014 finalist, Kei Nishikori, and the 2016 Wimbledon finalist, Milos Raonic. In fact, Wawrinka, Djokovic and Nishikori have called time on their 2017 season. And Roger Federer, the player who set this very trend last year, comes into his 17th US Open after recovering from a minor niggle.

It's hard to recall the last time when so many top players withdrew from a Grand Slam, on account of injury. Hence, it might seem that the field is wide open and that we might even see a surprise winner this year. However, what many fail to appreciate is the depth in men's tennis, esp. in the top 50. Left in the fray still, are four former US Open champions as well as five former semi-finalists. Let's look at the strong contenders for this year's Open and how the draw plays out.

Strong contenders

As the new world no. 1, Rafael Nadal comes into the tournament as a strong contender. His performances since achieving the historic La Decima in Paris, have been less assuring though. After the surprising defeat in the 4th round of Wimbledon, he lost in the 2nd round in Montreal and then was blasted off the court by Nick Kyrgios in the quarter-finals at Cincinnati. He's got a relatively easy passage till the 4th round where he could meet either Fabio Fognini or Tomas Berdych, both dangerous players. From there on, the path becomes difficult as he could square off against the Cincinnati Masters Champion, Grigor Dimitrov, in the quarters and then could meet his 2017 bête noire, Roger Federer in what would be their first ever US Open meeting.

With the exit of Murray, Roger Federer, is the next highest seed and he would like to make 2017 as his fourth 3-slam year, remarkably a decade after the last one. He was having a dream run after winning Wimbledon without dropping a set and then reaching the finals at Toronto before his chronic back problem returned in a straight-set defeat against Alexander Zverev. He skipped Cincinnati as a result and hence is coming into Flushing Meadows with a suspect back, which hasn't been thoroughly tested against the top players on the hard courts. And he's been handed a tough draw. Federer opens against the talented American teenager Frances Tiafoe (their 2nd meeting this year) and then, could face two-time semi-finalist, Mikhail Youzhny in the 2nd round, either of Fernando Verdasco or Feliciano Lopez in the 3rd round, the Cincinnati finalist Nick Kyrgios in the 4th round and possibly the 6th seed, Dominic Thiem in the quarters. In a way, this isn't dissimilar to the Australian Open 2017 where he was handed out a tough draw, mainly due to his ranking, and was coming into that tournament without match practice. If he's fit, then Federer will continue to mount a serious challenge for his 20th Grand Slam title and at 36, he continues to be one of the best hard-court players on tour.

The Wimbledon finalist and the 2014 US Open champion, Marin Cilic, also comes into the final grand slam of the year, on the back of an injury. He pulled out of both Montreal as well as Cincinnati Masters on account of an abductor injury. He doesn't have any major obstacles till the quarters (he could meet the rejuvenated David Ferrer in the 4th round), where he could meet the Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and his potential semi-final opponent would be the rising star and the in-form German, Alexander Zverev. Like Stan Wawrinka, the 28-year old Croat generally brings his A-game to the Grand Slams and he's at his best at the US Open (also a semi-finalist in 2015, and quarter-finalist in 2009 and 2012). He's definitely a strong contender for his 2nd US Open. 

Dark Horses

So who could spring a surprise? Could it be one of the old warhorses? In a depleted field, Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer and Monfils could fancy their chances to land their first slam. Or would it be one of the young guns who'll make a breakthrough at Flushing Meadows, much like Safin, Hewitt and Roddick in the early 2000s? Zverev, Thiem, Kyrgios will also think that their time has come. And what about the in-form Dimitrov, the late bloomer Querrey or the 2009 champion Del Potro?

The 26-year old Bulgarian, Grigor Dimitrov, is the most successful hard-court player this year. He's 24-6 on hard-courts and with 3 titles, is equal with Federer for most number of hard-court titles in 2017. He won the Cincinnati Masters without dropping a set, had a great start to the year and came very close to his first Slam Final at Melbourne (see my previous blog). He's in the same half of the draw as Nadal and Federer, and that would mean he needs to go through both of them to win his first slam (something he's done only once in 15 meetings with them). 

What does one make of Alexander Zverev? He's had a great season so far, having won two ATP Masters 1000 titles (beating Federer in the final at Montreal & beating Djokovic in the final at Rome) and 5 titles in total. Yet, he's failed to progress beyond the 4th round in the three Grand Slams this year, as success at the highest level continues to elude him (yet to reach the quarters at any slam). He's seeded in the top 4 for the first time at a Grand Slam, and has an easy path till the quarters. May be this is the tournament where the younger Zverev sibling, breaks his Grand Slam hoodoo.

Nick Kyrgios hasn't won any titles this year. He hasn't progressed beyond the 2nd round in any of the Grand Slams this year. So what makes him a dark horse? His performance against big players on big stages on the hard-courts, sets him apart. He demolished Nadal in Cincinnati, knocked out Djokovic at both Indian Wells and Acapulco, without dropping a set in any of those matches. He also has two wins over Zverev. He had a very close match with Federer in Miami, losing in three tie-break sets. His explosive game poses a grave threat to all top players but questions remain over his temperament. Despite this, he has enough firepower to cause a flutter or two in the top half of the draw. 

The Wimbledon semi-finalist, Sam Querrey has had a late resurgence of sorts. He's won two titles this year (both in Mexico incidentally) and was a semi-finalist at Wimbledon where he upset Tsonga and Murray along the way. Even more impressive was his title win at Acapulco where he went through Goffin, Thiem, Kyrgios and Nadal. He's got a kind draw and should progress to the quarters with relative ease. Here, Zverev lays in wait in what would be their first ever encounter. A repeat of the Wimbledon semi-final (vs. Cilic) can't be ruled out.

The year's final slam may have been depleted on account of pullouts but this gives a great opportunity for someone to make a mark. Will we get a first-time slam winner?     

     

Sri Lanka test series: Key takeaways for India

This blog is available as a video blog on https://youtu.be/LytF_FFwfWY

A three-test series, billed as part of the first full tour by an Indian team since 2009, ended in 11 days of play. Sri Lanka managed to cross 300 only once in the first two tests, and then, couldn't even cross 200 in the final test. Such was India's domination that they had a first innings lead in excess of 300 in all three tests and enforced follow-on in the last two matches. When one team scores nearly 2,000 runs in three and a half innings (avg. RPW of 61), while the other team cannot even manage 1,500 runs in six innings (avg. RPW of 24), it demonstrates, not just the different performance levels, but also the gulf in class between the two sides. The winning team, therefore, finds it difficult to take positives from the series. However, on account of bold team selection as well as some luck, India managed some positives from this series.

Hardik Pandya's emergence as an all-rounder

With 178 runs in 3 innings and 4 wickets in the 32 overs he was asked to send down, Hardik Pandya began repaying the faith that the team management has shown in him, over the last 12 months or so. His rise through the ranks has been meteoric. A first class debut in November 2013 was followed by selection in the Mumbai Indians playing XI in the 2015 IPL season. The India limited overs cap didn't take too long and he impressed one and all with his explosive batting and effective bowling. In fact, it was the rapid improvement in his bowling that encouraged the Indian team management to earmark him for the longest form of the game. A casual glance at his batting numbers in this series, esp. his strike rates, may give the impression that he played the same way as he does in the ODIs and T20s. But while he did provide the impetus in the first test by scoring a quickfire 50, his maturity stood out in the 3rd test. He strode in at 322/6 after the fall of Ashwin's wicket and India quickly lost Saha at 339. On a pitch that was giving some assistance to the bowlers, Pandya first stitched together a patient 62-run partnership with Kuldeep Yadav and then, when running out of partners, smashed 70 out of the last 86 runs while consuming 42 of the last 69 balls. Three out of the four wickets he took, were that of established batsmen. He also pouched four catches, second only to Rahane amongst non-wicket-keepers. A genuine all-rounder is worth his weight in gold and given that the overseas tours of South Africa, England and Australia are coming up, a pace-bowling all-rounder like Pandya could make a big difference.

Kuldeep Yadav firmly established

It was only due to the suspension of Jadeja from the 3rd test, that allowed the left-arm chinaman, Kuldeep Yadav, to play a test match in this series. Despite his series-winning performance in his debut test against Australia in March, once the captain and coach had made up their minds to play Pandya as the third seamer, it was always difficult for Kuldeep to feature in the starting XI. However, it didn't take Kuldeep too long to make a mark. He ran through the Sri Lankan middle and lower order in the first innings to hasten them to 135 all out and then broke a dangerous partnership between Dinesh Chandimal and Angelo Mathews in the 2nd innings. Overall, he picked up 5 wickets in his only test match at an impressive average of 19 and an even more impressive strike rate of 36 balls per wicket. Once again, the selectors and the Indian team management deserve a lot of credit for blooding this Kanpur lad and what has been very impressive is that Kuldeep has been effective across all formats of the game. The fuller length that Kuldeep prefers is ideally suited for test matches; yet it has worked wonders in the slam bang variety too. This is mainly on account of the disguise that Kuldeep deploys, wherein he's able to bowl both the normal chinaman as well as the wrong-un, with a scrambled seam. Given Ashwin and Jadeja's struggles in the Champions Trophy, Kuldeep would ideally be the no. 1 choice spinner in both ODIs and T20Is. And his performances in the limited opportunities he's got at the test level, should firmly establish him as the no. 3 spinner. In fact, I believe that in the upcoming overseas tours, if India decide to play with 2 spinners, Kuldeep's wrist spin would be far more effective on the bouncy pitches as compared to the finger spin of Ashwin and Jadeja.

KL Rahul continuing from where he left

KL Rahul was in a rich vein of form before injury halted his golden run. Till the 4th test against Australia in Dharamsala, Rahul had hit a half-century in each test of that series including five consecutive ones. Given his form in IPL 2016 and his vastly enhanced attacking strokeplay, the Bangalore lad was supposed to make a big impact in the IPL as well as in the Champions Trophy. Unfortunately, his shoulder injury required a surgery and that meant, 4 months out of the game. Then again, in Sri Lanka, he was laid low by viral fever and had to sit out of the first test at Galle. However, the tall right-hander was amongst runs as soon as he was back in the playing XI. He scored a half-century each in the two innings he batted, thereby becoming the first Indian batsman to score 7 consecutive test 50s. The only worry for Rahul would be that his last 8 test scores in excess of 50, have all ended short of the century mark. Nevertheless, the captain would be very pleased to see Rahul back in the team and his inclusion at the no. 4 spot for the upcoming ODIs is a sure indicator of the high esteem in which Rahul's technique, temperament and performances, are held by the Indian team management. 

Mohammed Shami's successful return from injury

Mohammed Shami, India's best quick bowler in test matches over the last few years, has had long-injury layoffs over the last two and a half years and this has caused him to miss many test matches. He returned to play in the West Indies tour in July 2016 after the knee surgery post-the 2015 World Cup, kept him out of the game for several months. Then, he was laid low again by knee injury against England and he missed out the 2nd half of the England series as well as the entire Australian series. A penetrative, test match class, quick bowler is such a rare commodity for Indian cricket and hence, his performances in this series must have been keenly watched by both selectors as well as the team management. And Shami didn't disappoint. He picked up 10 wickets, which was 3rd behind Ashwin and Jadeja, at a very impressive average of 17.7 and an amazing strike rate of 36.5. He was truly in his elements in the 3rd test, bowling at blistering pace and prising out 5 wickets while conceding less than 50 runs. All this augurs very well for future tours but India needs to manage Shami's workload properly so that there's no recurrence of the knee injury.

India has rested all their main test bowlers for the ODI leg of the tour. While this seems to be a sensible strategy for fast bowlers, at least one of Jadeja or Ashwin should've been part of the squad, as their one-day form, of late, hasn't been impressive. On the other hand, the ODI batting line-up seems to be at full-strength and the likely first choice line-up for the 2019 world cup. Interestingly, while Yuvraj has most likely been left out for good, Dhoni seems to have secured his swansong as his closest rival, Rishab Pant, has been unfairly dropped from the squad. India is expected to experiment and use this series as a build-up to the 2019 world cup. Here's then, wishing for a more competitive one-day series!

Reliving Federer vs. Cilic at Wimbledon 2016

As Roger Federer and Marin Cilic prepare to face-off in the Wimbledon 2017 final on Sunday, it'll be good to review their previous encounter. Federer and Cilic squared off in the quarter-final of Wimbledon 2016 and what a classic five-setter it was!

The Croatian had demolished the Swiss Champion in their encounter, previous to this one. That was in the semi-final of the US Open 2014 where Cilic simply destroyed Federer in straight sets on his way to his maiden Grand Slam title. Federer of course, remembered this and he mentioned how "he was blown away" by Cilic, in the press conference after his 4th round win over Steve Johnson. He specifically mentioned how Cilic had improved his serve considerably (see press conference video) and this was in ample display in the first two sets of their quarter-final encounter. Federer was unable to get any read on the Cilic serve as the tall Croatian quickly went up 2 sets to love. Then, the decisive, match-turning moment came in the 7th game of the 3rd set. The 7-time champion had his backs to the wall as he was serving at 0-40, virtually three match points down, given the way Cilic was serving. He somehow managed to extricate himself out of that situation with guts and grit. Then, with the momentum swinging back to his side, the Swiss broke Cilic in the very next game and held on to take the third set 6-3. The biggest difference now, was that Federer was able to read Cilic's serve and he was beginning to look comfortable with the pace of the serve as well as the power of Cilic's groundstrokes.

The 4th set was a mini-classic as both players upped their respective games. Serving at 1-2, Federer made a couple of errors from either wing to go down 15-40. He once again summoned his inner-genius to hit a few unreturnable serves (including a few second serves) and hold for 2-2. In the very next game, Cilic faced a similar situation. When 15-40 down, the Croatian sent down 4 consecutive aces to hold and pay tribute to his coach, Goran Ivanisevic. Serving at 4-5, 30-40, the Swiss saved the first match point of the day. Then at 5-6, 30-40, Federer saved another match point. The inevitable tie-break arrived and it was no less dramatic than the entire 4th set. Serving at 6-4, Federer had two set points, but Cilic won three straight points to earn his 3rd match point. The tension was palpable as a big second serve again saved Federer. The Swiss finally won the 4th set tie-break 12-10 to level the match.

The first half of the 5th set had lesser intensity as compared to the 4th set as both players held on to their service games. Serving at 3-4, 30-40, Cilic saved the 2nd break point of the set via a forehand winner but couldn't save the third as he sent a forehand fractionally wide. Serving for the match at 5-3, Federer decided that he'd had enough of drama as he closed out the match with an ace.

It was just an incredible match (see my short Facebook post after the match) and one of the best comeback wins by Federer over his career. He would go on to lose in the semi-final against Milos Raonic and an injury sustained in the 5th set of that match, convinced the Swiss to call time on his 2016 season. He's currently tied with Pete Sampras and William Renshaw, for the most number of Wimbledon titles (7), and would be acutely aware that breaking away from this pack won't be easy against an in-form Cilic on Sunday. Fingers crossed for a high-quality encounter; another pulsating 5-setter won't be bad at all!    

Wimbledon 2017: Previewing the pre-quarters

This blog is available as a video blog on https://youtu.be/2RrcWlAtMGk

Wimbledon remains the only Grand Slam where no play is held on the middle Sunday. This then provides us the opportunity to pause and take stock. To start off, a pop-quiz! When was the last time that each member of the Big Four survived the first week of a Grand Slam tournament? Believe it or not, it was more than 2 years and 8 Grand Slams ago - in the French Open 2015. So the headline of the week surely must be about the strong comeback by the Big Four. And it's not just the fact that they've all reached the 4th round but also the manner in which they've gone about their business. Between them, Murray, Djokovic, Federer and Nadal, have lost just one set on their way to the Round of 16. They've all overcome tricky opponents with relative ease. The other strong contenders, namely Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic, have also been impressive as they too have lost just one set between them.

The upsets amongst the Top 10 aren't really shocking. Both Wawrinka and Nishikori don't consider grass as their favourite surface, have a below-par record at Wimbledon and to make matters worse, they were both handed out brutal draws. What has been slightly surprising though, is Dominic Thiem's performance. He wasn't in great grass-court form coming into this tournament, but he's through to his first Round of 16 at Wimbledon.

The other talk dominating headlines is how the surface is playing. Some players have complained about the quality of the grass, how it is playing slowly, how some courts are slippery, how the grass is uneven. Of course, the lack of rainfall has made the surface behave like a slow hard court and that probably explains the lack of big upsets or even contests. However, I do think that the contests will become very interesting from hereon.

The most interesting match-up in the top half of the draw is between 2-time champion, Nadal and the in-form Gilles Muller. Muller, a tall leftie from Luxembourg, is a grass court specialist and is coming into this match on the back of an impressive grass-court season. He reached the semis at Queen's, falling to Cilic in a tough 3-setter, and won the Rosmalen Championship a week earlier, beating Alexander Zverev in straight sets on his way to the title. The two southpaws have met twice at Wimbledon in the past. Muller won the first encounter in 2005 while Nadal exacted revenge in 2011. Nadal has been in sensational form, having not dropped a set in his last 10 grand slam matches but this could be a tough test. Muller has a huge serve, hits a lot of aces (he's at the top of the ace-chart) and employs a classic serve-and-volley game. But will his game stand up to scrutiny against Rafa's relentless baseline game? This will be an entertaining match and may even go the distance, but I expect Rafa to come through.

Amongst other Round of 16 matches in the top half, I expect Murray and Cilic to come through their encounters with relative ease. Sam Querrey has racked up some impressive wins again this year and he's up against Kevin Anderson in a battle of tall players with huge serves. Both these guys are joint third in the aces count, having hit 68 aces each. Hence, don't expect long rallies. Tough one to call, may even go to five sets but I expect Querrey to come through this one and reach his 2nd consecutive quarter final at the Big W.

The bottom half of the draw has some potentially mouth-watering match-ups. Strong contender Raonic comes up against the rising star, Alexander Zverev. Both players are very good on grass but recent form suggests a slight upper hand for the German. Raonic obviously has the better serve but Zverev is very good from the baseline, esp. on the backhand side. The last year's finalist has gone deep in various Grand Slams previously while for Zverev, this will be his first Round of 16 match at a Grand Slam. In their only previous meeting, Zverev got the better of Raonic on clay at Rome Masters earlier in the season. I expect him to do an encore on grass and make his first Grand Slam quarter-final.

Federer and Dimitrov go up against each other for the first time since 2016 Australian Open. The 7-time Wimbledon champion has looked sensational this season, having won his 18th Grand Slam in Australia followed by the Sunshine Double in March. His clay court hiatus was followed by a stupendous victory at Halle. He's considered as the strongest contender at this year's Wimbledon. Dimitrov, on the other hand, has had a topsy-turvy season. He started the season very strongly, winning titles at Brisbane and Sofia, and coming very close to upsetting Nadal in a thrilling 5-set semi-final in the Australian Open. He racked up an impressive 16-1 win-loss record before his season went pear-shaped at Rotterdam. He went on to suffer a shocking loss of form in the remaining hard court season and that losing spree continued in the clay court season. From 16-1, he went 5-9 leading up to the Queen's Club Championship where he finally found some form and reached the semis. The question though, is whether he's ready for the born-again Federer. I would say, difficult given the evidence. I'm going with Federer in 4 sets.

Dominic Thiem and Tomas Berdych have met only once before. That too was a 4th round encounter, three years ago at the Flushing Meadows, when the 6th seed Berdych steamrolled the unseeded Thiem in three easy sets. Things won't be easy for the Czech this time though. Thiem, the higher seed, has been outstanding this season and although he suffered two shocking losses at Halle and Antalya and his high backlift is generally considered unsuitable for grass, the Austrian has surprised one and all with his performance in London. Berdych too hasn't had a great grass-court season falling to Feliciano Lopez in the quarters both at Queen's as well as in Stuttgart. His Grand Slam performance hasn't been up to the mark in 2017 and he hasn't yet won a title this year. This one is tough to call and most likely, the match will go the distance. Thiem has already proved that he can play on the big stage and seeing him in his first Wimbledon quarter-final shouldn't surprise anyone anymore.

The no. 2 seed and the 3-time Wimbledon champion, Novak Djokovic, faces Adrian Mannarino for the second consecutive year at Wimbledon. They met in the 2nd round last year and Nole came through in straight sets. The significance of that match isn't lost on anyone as Djokovic lost in the very next round to Sam Querrey and his career has undergone a major slump that continues till today. Mannarino has caused some upsets already this year, first overcoming a red-hot Feliciano Lopez in 4 sets in the first round, and then defeating Gael Monfils in 5 sets after being down 2 sets to 1, in the previous round. Djokovic himself has started to find his bearings and his straight-sets victory over the dangerous Gulbis in the previous round was very impressive. Does Mannarino have enough fuel in the tank to cause the 3rd and his most significant upset? I think Djokovic will find a way and should come through in 4 sets.

We are all set then for a Super Monday. It's Love All!

Champions Trophy 2017: Asian Party in London

Let's start with a short quiz. When was the last time India played Pakistan in a major tournament final? Most of you will get it right - it was indeed the ICC T20 World Cup final 10 years ago. But what if the question was limited to finals of ODI tournaments involving more than 3 teams? One has to go back more than 23 years i.e. to April 1994, when the then reigning world champions, Pakistan, beat India in the finals of Australasia Cup (in Sharjah) to win their 3rd successive title. And the last time India and Pakistan met in the finals of a major global ODI tournament was in March 1985, when the then World Cup holder, India, beat Pakistan in the finals of the World Championship of Cricket (held in Australia).

The Romance of India-Pakistan encounters!

The South Asian cricketing giants have met less frequently in the last decade or so, as volatile political environment has restricted bilateral tours. The cricketing world has been poorer for this. This, and the fact that Pakistan is still banned from hosting cricket in their own country (8th year running) as well as excluded from IPL, has seen India-Pakistan matches lose their edge recently. This is such a far cry from those two decades (mid 80s to mid 2000s) when India and Pakistan ODI encounters produced edge-of-the-seat thrillers. Cricket fans would remember the match when India won while defending a lowly 125 runs in Sharjah (1985) or when Miandad hit a last-ball six off a Chetan Sharma full-toss to help Pakistan win the first Australasia Cup, also in Sharjah (1986). We all remember the world cup encounters, esp. the 1996 quarter-finals and the 2003 slug-fest. But, how many of you remember that 40-over ODI in 1987 where India, having set Pakistan a target of 239 and having them struggling at 174/6, still lost mainly due to Salim Malik's brilliance (who scored 72 of the last 80 runs at a strike rate of 200!)? Or, even that 1991 match in Sharjah where a young Tendulkar almost helped India chase down 258 against a bowling line-up comprising Wasim Akram, Aaqib Javed and Waqar Younis, in fading light (India lost by 4 runs!). Sharjah may have slowly faded into insignificance but India and Pakistan continued producing thrilling encounters - in Toronto (1996), when India lost by 2 wickets when defending 264 and despite having Pakistan down at 221/8 (Salim Malik the tormentor again); in Dhaka (1998) when India won the Independence Cup by chasing down a then-record 315 (won by 3 wickets); in Brisbane (2000) when Pakistan won by 2 wickets when chasing 196 and looking down and out at 153/8 (Saqlain and Waqar, as batsmen!); in 2004 (Karachi), when India sneaked home by 5 runs despite setting Pakistan a huge target of 350, as Moin Khan couldn't do a Miandad off the last ball, despite getting a full-toss.

Although, India and Pakistan produce the occasional brilliant game even now, since 2006 India have dominated their neighbours, having won 17 out of 27 completed games. Contrast this with the overall record - it still stands at 72 wins for Pakistan vs. 52 wins for India. Their first game in the Champions Trophy 2017 was representative of how India has dominated Pakistan since 2006. Pakistan will hope that there's no encore in the final.        

What has India done well so far in Champions Trophy 2017?

India, the pre-tournament favourite, has lived up to their reputation and are functioning like a well-oiled machine. The top order has been both solid as well as swashbuckling, with Dhawan and Rohit topping the run charts and Kohli too in the top 5. Each of the middle and late order batsmen have played at least one significant innings or cameo. While Bumrah and Bhuvneshwar Kumar haven't picked up a bunch of wickets, they've been very economical (going at less than 4.75 RPO). The fielding has been very good too, with the fielders effecting 6 run outs so far and catching having improved significantly since the first match against Pakistan. Except for the 2nd innings against Sri Lanka, India has been very clinical in all their other games. They've won when defending a target (against Pakistan) as well as when chasing one (South Africa, Bangladesh).

Yet, certain phases of their bowling performance in the league game against Sri Lanka as well as the semi-final against Bangladesh will worry Virat Kohli and Anil Kumble. India's bowling has been largely unsuccessful to pick up wickets in the middle-overs. Sri Lanka successfully chased down 322 quite comfortably while Bangladesh, having crossed 150 in the 27th over for the loss of just 2 wickets, were on course for a 320+ score before the part-time off-spin of Kedar Jadhav induced a mid-innings collapse. In the finals, India will surely demand more wickets from their front-line spinners (esp. Ashwin) as well as their pace-bowling all-rounder, Hardik Pandya.

What has propelled Pakistan to their first Champions Trophy final?

Pakistan has been the most improved side in this tournament. They were the bottom-most ranked team when the tournament began (at no. 8) and even their most ardent fans gave them little chance to make the finals. But the Pakistani team decided to live up to its age-hold billing as "mercurial and maverick". After the big loss against India in their tournament opener and having lost Wahab Riaz due to injury, facing the top-ranked South Africa in a must-win game was daunting. But they've strung together a series of such amazing bowling performances that they've restricted strong batting line-ups of South Africa, Sri Lanka and England for less than 250 in 3 successive games. This has mainly been on account of penetrative middle-over pace bowling by Pakistan and this hasn't allowed the opposition to follow the tried-and-tested model of accumulation in the middle-overs followed by acceleration towards the end. Hasan Ali and Junaid Khan are amongst the top 5 wicket-takers and as a result, they've been economical too (less than 5 RPO).

However, Pakistan's batting is still a big concern. They got slightly lucky against South Africa with rain and D/L coming for help. Then, they were staring at defeat against Sri Lanka when chasing a modest 237 before an unbroken 8th wicket partnership of 75 runs rescued them. It was only against England in the semi-final that Pakistan produced a clinical batting display to chase down 212 with 8 wickets in hand and 77 balls to spare. Yet, Pakistan will be very aware of India's batting depth and it's unlikely, in case they are chasing, that they'll face a less-than-250 target in the finals.

So how does it look like?

If one looks at the strong and weak areas of both teams, they represent perfect contrasts. India will love to have Pakistan's bowling penetration in the middle-overs while Pakistan will feel complete if they can match India's batting prowess at the top order. To the die-hard fans on either side, this would sound very similar to a recurring theme in the 90s - Indian fans wished their team had a bowling attack (esp. fast bowlers) like Pakistan and Pakistani fans wondered when they'll get the kind of batting depth like India. 

The weather seems to be clear for the final and hence, toss may prove critical. Both teams would like to chase, esp. Pakistan. The final will be played on a fresh track and this may aid run-scoring. For Pakistan, Mohammad Amir will likely be back while India may retain the same team that won the semi-final. If India bat first, they'll look for a score close to 300 (may not want to go hard for a 325+ score). If they bat second, the Indian team would be confident of chasing down any score upto 325. Let's hope for a repeat of the high-scoring Independence Cup final in 1998 (the third final). That'll surely rekindle the old romance! 

French Open 2017: Semi-final preview

After 12 gruelling days on the red clay of Paris, we are down to four men. Three of them are grand slam winners, two of them have won here in the past but only one of them didn't reach this stage at least once in the last two years! And no that guy isn't Dominic Thiem, but Rafael Nadal! Yet, it doesn't seem strange that a lot of experts favour Nadal in his quest for La Decima.

Given the clay-court form coming into this French Open, the line-up isn't a big surprise (see my French Open preview). The only surprise has been, ironically the world no. 1 Andy Murray, who has arrested a worrying slump in form, to make his 4th consecutive semi-final at Roland Garros. And true to form, the other three semi-finalists (Nadal, Wawrinka, Thiem) haven't even dropped a set. Given the match-ups, we have an equal probability of getting either a first-time winner or a repeat winner.

SF1: Power of Wawrinka vs. Defense of Murray

This will be a repeat of last year's semi-final where many reckon, that the Scot played his best clay-court match ever to overcome Stan in four sets and make his first French Open final. So what will it take for Murray to repeat the dose this year? Well, I would say a couple of things - for Murray to somehow regain the form he showed after his loss in the Roland Garros finals last year; and for Stan to somehow suffer a massive dip in performance levels. If it's only the former, we'll have a cracker of a match. Given the stage of the tournament, Stan will be expected to put in a power-packed performance. His form has gotten better as the tournament has progressed and his overwhelming straight-sets victory over an in-form Cilic in the quarters, was a clay-court masterclass. Importantly, Stan is playing closer to the baseline and yet, he's been able to put the same power behind his groundstrokes. Murray's form has also improved but as we saw in the quarter-finals against an erratic Nishikori, he can blow hot and cold, sometimes in the same set. I expect Wawrinka to come through in four sets.

SF2: A passing of the baton moment?

Nadal and Thiem have already met thrice on clay this season, with Nadal winning two of those three encounters. The Spaniard has put in an astounding performance at this year's open, having lost just 22 games en-route to the semis (the lowest in terms of games in his 26 grand slam semi-final runs). He's had a great season so far, having already won 3 clay-court tournaments and in the eyes of many experts, he's primed to win his 10th Roland Garros title this year. However, Thiem's best surface too is clay and his semi-final showing this year has proved that his 2016 performance was no flash in the pan. He's the only player to beat Nadal on clay in 2017 and his performance in Paris has been outstanding. He hasn't lost a set and his two bagel sets (6-0) have come against the talented Tomic in the first round (2nd set) and against Djokovic in the quarters (3rd set). In addition, he's had four breadstick sets too (6-1). His demolition of Djokovic was as breathtaking and incredible as unexpected. In Djokovic, he conquered the 2nd best clay-court player in the world (based on performance over the last 3-4 years) and his reward now is to overcome the best clay-court player ever. Can he do it? Will we witness a passing of the baton moment? I'll stick my neck out and say, yes. I believe Thiem's time has come and he'll overcome Nadal in five tight sets. In the process, taking over the mantle as the best clay courter of the next generation.

French Open 2017: Top contenders

French Open 2017 will mark one full year of major upheaval in men's tennis, esp. at the top. Cast your minds back to May 2016 - Djokovic arrived in Paris, having won the three previous slams; he went on to clinch his 1st French Open title and thereby complete his career slam. Andy Murray had started to put together a string of strong clay court performances, having defeated Djokovic at Rome and he went on to reach his first final at Roland Garros, becoming the first Britisher since 1937 to do so. These two had also contested the Australian Open final that year as well as the finals of the previous two ATP Masters 1000 clay court tourneys. What about the other two members of the Big Four? Nadal, who had a good start to the clay court season in 2016 (winning Monte Carlo and Barcelona), then went on to suffer straight-set defeats against Murray (at Madrid) and Djokovic (at Rome), respectively. Nadal had to ultimately withdraw from the 3rd round at Paris, citing wrist injury. And injury is what kept Federer away from French Open 2016, ending his astonishing record of 65 consecutive grand slam appearances.

Coming into French Open 2017, however, things look very different. Djokovic's win-loss record this year reads a fairly middling 20-6 with just one title (at Doha, before the Australian Open). In 2016, those numbers were 37-3 with five titles. Andy Murray, the world no. 1, has had an even more disappointing 2017; his win-loss record this year is 16-7 overall and a ridiculously poor 4-4 on clay. On the other hand, Nadal has had a resurgence of sorts. The king of clay is already 36-6 this year and an even more impressive 17-1 on clay, with all his three titles coming on the red dirt. Three of those losses have come at the hands of his great rival, Roger Federer, who's decided to skip Roland Garros for the 2nd year in succession. This time, however, the absence is more tactical instead of being injury-induced, as the Swiss, having won at Melbourne, targets the faster courts of Wimbledon and US Open in the autumn of his career.

The most unpredictable slam!

If one glances through the list of top grand slam winners (29 winners) who've won at least 5 titles, one notices that out of a total 244 grand slam titles between them, French Open comes in at the last (constituting 42 titles or 17.2%). 

Source: Wikipedia

The numbers would've been even more skewed if not for the apathy the earlier champions showed for Australian Open. It's common knowledge that a lot of top Open-era players (Bjorn Borg, for example) skipped travelling Down Under due to scheduling (A.O. was earlier held at the end of the season), travel times involved etc. The tournament was rescheduled to January in 1987. 

If we look at slam winners since 1988 (i.e. the year Australian Open moved from grass to hard court), French Open has seen the most number of unique winners. Despite Nadal's dominance on the red clay of Paris (with 9 titles), the French Open has seen 17 different winners out of 29 titles (A.O. - 14; Wimbledon - 12; US Open - 16). Additionally, if we look at solitary title wins at the respective slams, French Open again comes out at the top (10 players with a single French Open title); the corresponding figures for other slams are A.O. - 7, Wimbledon - 6, US Open - 8.

The table below captures the respective GS winners since 1998 from amongst the list of top 29 champions (i.e. players with 5+ GS titles; as described above). Both in terms of number of winning players and no. of titles by those players, the French Open stands out.

Source: Wikipedia

Similarly, the table below captures the number of such GS winners from outside the top 29 champions (i.e. players with < 5 GS titles). It also shows other GS titles captured by these winners (i.e. outside the respective Open). On this parameter, French Open and Wimbledon stand out but Wimbledon has the least number of unique winners and most proportion of winners from Top 29. In other words, there are some one Slam wonders amongst Wimbledon winners but they are far lower in comparison to various champion players who've won multiple titles.

  

Top contenders at Paris

Between 2005 and 2014, Rafael Nadal won 9 out of the 10 French Open titles. Over the last two years, however, we've had two first-time champions - Stan Wawrinka in 2015 and Djokovic in 2016. Will we see the trend continue in 2017? Or will the 9-time champion regain his stranglehold on The Musketeers' Trophy?

Nadal remains the top contender for this year's French Open. He's won 3 of the 4 major clay court tournaments leading up to Roland Garros. In the course of his 3 titles (Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid), he lost just two sets. His 2017 nemesis, Federer, isn't playing. He'll face stiff challenge from the other two strong contenders, Djokovic and Dominic Thiem, who are both in his half of the draw (bottom half). Thiem is on a high, stringing together a 17-4 clay court record and has been the only player to overcome Rafa on clay this year. He reached the finals both at Barcelona and Madrid, losing to the Spanish giant on each occasion, before he finally overcame Nadal in the quarters at Rome. The 6th seed, Thiem was also a semi-finalist at Roland Garros last year and makes a strong case as the no. 2 contender.

The 2nd ranked Djokovic hasn't had a great year on clay. He's racked up an ordinary 8-3 record on clay but his performances have shown a gradual improvement. After losing to Goffin in the quarters at Monte-Carlo, he reached the semis at Madrid (lost to Nadal) and then the finals at Rome (lost to Alexander Zverev). The defending champion has inducted Andre Agassi as his coach, plus his pedigree on clay as well as recent record against Nadal (4-2 on clay and 9-2 overall since 2014) would definitely make him one of the strongest contenders. He's drawn to meet Thiem in the quarters and Nadal in the semis, in a heavily-loaded bottom half. The bottom half also has some dangerous floaters in Goffin, Ramos-Vinolas and Dimitrov.  

The top half of the draw contains, in my view, the two dark horses of this year's open. Alexander Zverev has put together a very impressive win-loss record of 16-3 on clay, with two titles including the ATP Masters 1000 Rome (Italian Open), defeating Djokovic in the finals. He's entered Top 10 for the first time (going in to Roland Garros as world no. 10) and is set to better his 2016 win-loss record. He's slated to start against Verdasco in the first round, and occupies the same quarter of the draw as Berdych and world no. 1, Murray, but I expect him to make it to the semis this year. Last but not the least, is the world no. 3 and 2015 champion, Stan Wawrinka. His overall win-loss record this year is an ordinary 16-8 while his record on clay is 6-3. Stan has always blown hot, blown cold outside grand slams. However, in grand slams, since the beginning of 2015, he's won two, reached the semis of four others as well as the quarters at one. Across five sets and towards the latter part of a grand slam tournament, Stan is as good as any of the Big Four. That's why, in my view, he should be considered as a very strong contender. Watch out for Pablo Cuevas and Fabio Fognini in the top half - they could cause some upsets.

Between 2001 and 2004, Roland Garros witnessed four different champions. And none of them won another grand slam outside French Open. Will we see a new champion emerge this year? Or will the hegemony of the Big Four + Wawrinka, continue? The 2nd Sunday of June will have the answers!   

  

     

IPL 2017: How did Pune manage runners-up?

"How did RPS not become champions of IPL 2017?" That must be the question ringing loudly in Steve Smith's ears as he packs his bags after a 3 month long-tour of India. This was his 2nd heartbreak as captain in less than two months and both came in matches where his team dominated at the outset. The fact that he topped the batting charts in the test series and was also the top run scorer amongst both IPL finalists (no. 4 overall), would be minor consolations. As the skipper of RPS, this snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory, will hurt Smith. And the brute reality of him being at the crease till the final over and esp. when the match was in RPS' control, will confound and hound him in equal measure. What played out at Hyderabad was a classic case of many a slip between the cup and the lip!

Mighty struggle for the MI batters

It all looked very different at the halfway stage, of course. RPS had put in a brilliant bowling display and restricted MI to a manageable 129. In fact, even 129 looked difficult at the 15 over stage. Rohit Sharma won the toss and, in keeping with the tradition in IPL finals, chose to bat first (my previous blog covering this). Unadkat continued his rich vein of form and quickly snuffed out both the MI openers with the team score still in single digits. Rohit Sharma and the local boy, Ambati Rayudu, tried to stem the tide but the going wasn't easy. The man of the match in the previous MI-RPS encounter, off-spinner Washington Sundar, kept things very tight and didn't allow MI to get away in the powerplay. Rohit plundered four boundaries off Ferguson in the 6th over to ensure that MI reached a respectable 32/2 (given the slowish pitch) at the end of powerplay. However, as things were beginning to look slightly better for MI, disaster struck. Rayudu played a firm cover drive, off Ferguson, straight to Smith at mid-off and tried scampering for a non-existent single. He was possibly hoping that Smith would miss hitting directly but the RPS skipper hit the bulls eye, finding Rayudu well short of the crease. At 41/3, MI were hoping that the free-flowing Rohit and the in-form Krunal Pandya would put on a partnership similar to the one in the Qualifier 2 against KKR. However, they were in for a rude shock. In the 11th over, the leg-spinner Adam Zampa first got the benefit of a bigger ground at Uppal when Rohit failed to get the distance while pulling a short delivery, and holed out to deep mid-wicket. In came Kieron Pollard and he looked like he wanted to break the shackles straight away. He smote an effortless six off the first ball he faced but then fell to some tactically brilliant field placement. Possibly on advice from Dhoni, Smith placed a very straight long-off and Pollard duly obliged, hitting a flighted delivery from Zampa, straight to that fielder. Hardik Pandya didn't last long and neither did Karn Sharma. At the end of 15 overs, MI were 81/7 and in real danger of being bowled out for less than 100.

Krunal Pandya rescues MI

The one man standing between RPS and the IPL trophy, however, was the exceptionally smart and versatile, Krunal Pandya. He quickly assessed the nature of the wicket and as the last recognized batsman, decided to delay the late innings assault. Receiving good support from the experienced Mitch Johnson, Pandya demonstrated great improvisation in dealing with both, the slower ones from Unadkat, as well as the seam-up deliveries from Dan Christian. Crucially, MI plundered 37 runs off the last 3 overs and gave their bowlers 129 to defend. MI's hopes now rested on a superlative performance from their more consistent discipline this year i.e. their bowling.

Over-cautious RPS keep MI in the game

Still, given that 129 was the lowest a team had scored when batting first in an IPL final, RPS were heavy favorites going into the 2nd innings. MI needed early breakthroughs and Bumrah did just that, trapping the explosive Tripathi in front. The lanky MI bowler got slightly lucky with the decision as the ball was going just over the stumps. MI should've picked up Rahane also but Krunal Pandya dropped a sitter after Malinga had foxed the RPS opener by a brilliant slower one. Like he has done all IPL, Rohit continuously rotated his bowlers. At the 10 over mark, the game was meandering along with neither MI picking up wickets nor RPS getting ahead of the required run rate (by way of aggressive batting). However this meant that even though MI were sloppy in the field, the combination of miserly bowling and over-cautious batting from Rahane and Smith, kept MI in the game. MI believed (and rightly so) that a couple of wickets could really make this chase, tense.

In the 12th over, the game suddenly opened up. First, Johnson picked up Rahane, thanks to an exceptional catch from Pollard. The tall West Indian ran quickly from long-on and then dived forward to complete an extremely tough catch. Then, RPS decided to bring Dhoni in at no. 4. This was a deviation from their earlier strategy of batting Tiwary at 4 and Dhoni at 5. Possibly, the RPS team management felt that Dhoni would take longer to get in and an equation reading 59 off 49 was manageable with Smith still batting. However, that equation soon became 47 from 30 balls as Karn Sharma, Krunal Pandya and Malinga delivered three exceptional overs, going for just 12 runs! As the tournament's last strategic timeout came about, Dhoni was struggling with 4 from 9 balls and Smith too was scoring at less than run-a-ball (25 off 35 balls). MI was making RPS sweat for every run but with the protagonists of the successful chase from this season's first MI-RPS encounter, at the crease, RPS were still the favorites.

Last 5 overs of IPL 2017 - ebbs and flows

16th over - As Krunal Pandya got ready to bowl his final over, the experience duo of Smith and Dhoni instantly realized that they needed to attack the left-arm spinner by taking calculated risks. Off the 3rd ball, Dhoni used his fast bat speed and strong wrists to hit a vertical bat square cut, and got a welcome boundary. Then off the 5th ball, Smith played, arguably, the shot of the match. He unleashed a powerful reverse sweep and hit it well over the point boundary for a six. 14 runs came off that over, equation was brought down to 33 off 24 balls and Rohit Sharma's gamble of bowling a spinner at this stage of the innings, seemed to have backfired. Advantage RPS!

17th over - Realizing that he needed wickets as well as stem the flow of runs, the MI skipper brought on his trump card and his clutch bowler, Bumrah. Earlier in this season, Bumrah was preferred over Malinga to bowl the superover against Gujarat Lions and he successfully defended 11 against batsmen of the calibre of McCullum and Finch. He was entrusted to bring MI back in the game and he didn't disappoint. Off the 2nd ball of the over, a fast in-cutter got Dhoni slashing and edging to Parthiv Patel. In came Manoj Tiwary and almost immediately had a huge LBW shout turned down. Overall, Bumrah bowled three dot balls (including the wicket-taking delivery) and conceded a single each of the other three balls. To summarize, he brought MI right back into the match with an over of the highest quality. RPS now needed 30 from 18 balls; remember, MI got 37 runs from their last 18 balls! Slight advantage to RPS!

18th over - Malinga was entrusted with bowling the 18th over. The old Sri Lankan warhorse didn't have a great IPL but he was mostly accurate in this match. First four balls included two dots and two singles. Equation climbed up to 28 runs from 14 balls and also went up MI's chances. Then Smith produced another moment of magic - a near yorker on the leg stump was expertly dealt with (by staying deep in the crease) and whipped to the backward square leg fence for a crucial boundary. 7 runs came off Malinga's final over and the equation now read, 23 runs from 12 balls. Still advantage to RPS but MI in with a fair chance!

19th over - Rohit continued with Bumrah for the crucial 19th over. With so much riding on his young shoulders, Bumrah possibly felt the pressure and delivered a full-toss first up. Smith too, possibly nervous, couldn't take full advantage of this and nearly holed out to deep mid-wicket. The next three deliveries went for three singles (1 leg bye). At this stage, the equation read 19 off 8 balls and if Bumrah managed to concede only 2-3 runs, the last over equation would've been very tough for RPS. Instead, Smith, who was sitting very deep in his crease and hence was able to generate leverage for the just-short-of-yorker length, smacked the 5th ball for a six over long-off. The last ball was another high full-toss and yet again, Smith couldn't make a good connection (they ran two). Nevertheless, with 12 runs coming off that over, the equation was down to 11 runs off 6 balls. Big advantage to RPS with MI's chances dimmed slightly!

20th over - In the first MI-RPS encounter this season, Bumrah had delivered the 19th over and by conceding just 7 runs in that over, he left 12 runs to be defended in the final over (and Pollard couldn't defend those). Here, he had gone for 12 runs in the penultimate over and hence, left only 10 runs to defend. However, the key difference was that Rohit had one over from Johnson and hence, didn't have to go to any non-regular bowler. With Tiwary on strike, Johnson bowled the first delivery from over the wicket and his slower one was dispatched for a boundary. Now, just 7 runs were needed off 5 balls - looked like all over for MI! Johnson switched sides and Tiwary, looking for a big hit, got the inside half of the bat (off another slow off-cutter) and his lofted drive landed safely into the big hands of Pollard at long-on. However, importantly for RPS, the batsmen had switched ends as the catch was being taken and hence, with 7 needed off 4 balls, it was Smith on strike. The time for the knockout punch was now or never! Johnson delivered a seam-up delivery just outside off and Smith hit an amazing lofted square drive. The connection was very good and the ball was headed for 6 but it was also headed in the direction of the only outfielder on the off-side, Ambati Rayudu. Rayudu positioned at sweeper cover, plucked out a very good catch since the ball was travelling flat and quick. In fact, a few inches on either side, would've meant a 6 thereby almost finishing off MI's chances. This was a crucial wicket for MI - two wickets in two balls also meant that there were two dot balls. The equation had become a more difficult 7 off 3. And the batsmen couldn't cross in time and hence, instead of Dan Christian, it was Sundar on strike. The batsmen stole a bye on the hattrick ball and it was now in the hands of Christian. 6 needed off 2 and Christian got a length ball on the leg stump but the burly all-rounder couldn't deposit it for a boundary or six. Hardik Pandya dropped a tough chance at deep mid-wicket and the fumble allowed a couple. So it was down to 4 runs off the final ball! Two Aussies faced up to each other with the Indian Premier League trophy on the line! Johnson bowled another quick ball on the leg stump, Christian could only manage to get it to the substitute fielder (Suchith) at deep square leg. Suchith made a nervy stop, possibly aware of the boundary rope behind him, and even fumbled when making the throw. However, his throw was accurate enough and as the RPS batsmen attempted the third, Parthiv Patel effected the run out and MI won the match and hence IPL 2017, by a solitary run! It was an exhilarating performance by MI and they won a match in which, at the innings break, nobody gave them a chance.

Conclusion

This victory was made possible due to excellent all-round bowling performance by MI and over-cautious approach by the RPS batsmen. It was sweet revenge for Rohit and his men and in many ways, this match was a microcosm of all the previous MI-RPS encounters this season. Similar to the first match, it was MI batting first and Smith and Rahane batting well for RPS. In that match too, Smith took the chase to the last over. Also had commonality with the 2nd match; the chasing team botched up a chase which was under their control for most parts. In that game it was MI's skipper Rohit who batted well and brought his team close before falling in the last over, thereby failing to take the team over the finishing line. And Krunal Pandya's late innings (and match winning) assault in this match was very similar to Dhoni's in their last match, both in terms of nature and impact. 

The IPL rules are set for an overhaul this year and, given that CSK and RR will make a comeback next year, a lot of things are likely to change. The first decade of IPL is nicely bookended by two similar last ball finishes. What better advertisement for the edge-of-the-seat thrill that IPL promises!

IPL 2017 final: Who'll make history?

The 3rd Sunday of May will see two-time champions, Mumbai Indians (MI), attempting to do what they haven't achieved since the 1st Sunday of May last year. It was on 1st May 2016 that MI overcame Rising Pune Supergiants (RPS) at Pune and avenged their defeat earlier that season. In the 2017 season, MI and RPS have squared off thrice and on each of those occasions, RPS has defeated MI, with the last victory being the most comprehensive. So, in the finals of IPL 2017, Rohit Sharma and his men would be desperate for revenge.

RPS the bogey team for MI

MI has a 1-4 losing match record against RPS (0-3 this season). A review of MI's 2017 season reveals that they've had their fair share of close matches. But while they've clinched close victories against other opposition, the 2015 champions have come up short against their Maharashtra brethren. In each of those matches, MI has held an upper hand, only for a couple of outstanding individual performances winning the day for RPS. 

In their first match this season, first it was Tahir who put the brakes on MI after they had got off to a fantastic start. Even though lusty hitting in the final overs from Pollard and Hardik Pandya ensured that MI put up a challenging 184, they were undone by Rahane at the top (his best performance of this season; highest score at the best strike rate) and then, when MI seamers threatened to get their team over the line, they were again trumped by Smith who had to hit 2 sixes in the final over to ensure that RPS won with a ball to spare. 

In their second encounter (my blog on that match), Rahane again played a decent hand and combined nicely with Tripathi for the first wicket, to ensure that, despite the middle order wobble, RPS finished with a respectable (albeit, slightly below par) 160. MI openers got off to another good start before Stokes and then the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) brought RPS back into it. Rohit then steadied the ship, played an outstanding innings and was combining well with Pollard when Tahir struck. That proved to be a crucial blow, and Stokes and then Unadkat produced some outstanding death-over bowling to take RPS home by a mere 3 runs! Stokes, especially, was sensational - bowling with pace and hostility, and fielding with verve & vigour. He was duly adjudged the man of the match.

By virtue of being table toppers, MI and RPS clashed again in the first qualifier at Wankhede. RPS batted first and despite Rahane playing well again, all MI bowlers had the wood on the RPS batters till the 18th over. Then Dhoni produced 10 minutes of magic, helping plunder 41 runs off the final two overs and getting RPS to another defendable score of 162. MI again got off to a decent start before two unlucky dismissals combined with outstanding spin bowling from Sundar made MI sweat in the heat of Mumbai and they ultimately fell short by 20 runs. This was a very comprehensive victory and esp. sweet, given that both Stokes and Tahir had left for national duties.

Why the RPS conundrum for MI?

Rahane loves MI bowlers

This season, the Mumbai-lad Ajinkya Rahane has scored 154 runs in 3 matches against MI at a strike rate of 141. This is in sharp contrast to 184 runs in 12 matches (strike rate of 105), against all the other teams. That two of those matches against MI have come at Wankhede, hasn't helped the 2015 IPL champions. Rahane, clearly wants his home city franchise to pay, for not sticking with him!

RPS bowlers' ability to take wickets and choke run scoring

Against RPS, MI has lost 25 wickets in 3 matches (8.3 wickets per match); this again is in sharp contrast to 72 wickets lost in 13 matches against other teams (5.5 wickets per match). That ratio becomes even more skewed when one looks at the numbers when MI chase. Against RPS, MI has lost 17 wickets in 2 matches when chasing (8.5 wickets per match) while the same stat against other teams is 49 wickets in 9 matches (5.4 wickets per match). Both the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) as well as the seamers (Unadkat and Stokes) have picked up wickets at regular intervals, thereby either denying MI any upper hand or sucking out the momentum whenever MI was able to build a partnership. 

In IPL 2017, between overs 7 and 15, RPS bowlers have bowled most dot balls (321), taken most wickets (41) at the lowest economy rate (7.16) - this is clearly a stat that stands out. 

Performance of the big players

In all three matches against MI, one of the star players for RPS has stood up and helped the 2-year old franchise cross the finishing line. It was Steve Smith in the first match, Ben Stokes in the 2nd and the redoubtable Dhoni in the 3rd. Contrast this to the performance of MI's big players (Rohit Sharma, Pollard, Mitch McClenaghan). Pollard sparkled briefly with the bat in the first match but then went for 30 runs in 1.5 overs while bowling (towards the end when other bowlers went for 43 in 5 overs @8.6 RPO) and couldn't defend 13 runs off the final over. Rohit failed in the first match but was sublime in the 2nd. He had scored 58 runs off 38 balls before he fell in the final over and hence couldn't take his team over the line. In the 3rd encounter, when at 121/3 after 18 overs, RPS was staring at a less-than-150 total, McClenaghan went for 26 runs off the crucial 19th over and handed back the momentum to RPS. Each time, at the crunch moments, while RPS' star players delivered, MI's star players flattered to deceive.

What do the performance charts reveal?

There are only two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 15 run-getters this season; Parthiv and Pollard for MI, Smith and Tripathi for RPS. Amongst these, only Smith features in the top 5 (at no. 5) while MI's top run-getter, Parthiv is at no. 8. However, both teams have been served well by consistent performances from multiple batsmen - they have more batsmen scoring 150+ runs in the tournament than both SRH and KKR. Hence, unlike SRH or KKR, the finalists haven't been dependent on 1 or 2 batsmen.  

In the bowling charts, however, there are two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 5 wicket-takers; McClenaghan and Bumrah for MI, Unadkat and Tahir for RPS. In terms of economy rates, for bowlers who've bowled a minimum of 20 overs, one bowler each from MI and RPS figure in the top 5 (incidentally both offies - Harbhajan for MI; Sundar for RPS). Likewise, in the top 15, there are four bowlers each from MI and RPS (much higher than all other teams). 

It's fair to say that both the finalists boast of a bowling attack, that is frugal as well as penetrative while their batting lineups aren't dependent on 1 or 2 key players.

How can MI secure their 3rd IPL title?

Win toss, bat first

In the 2017 edition, both RPS and MI have a similar record in terms of win ratios when batting 2nd vis-a-vis batting 1st. When defending a target, MI has won 3 out of 5 matches (60% win ratio) and RPS has won 5 out of 8 matches (62.5% win ratio). On the other hand, when chasing a target, MI has won 8 out of 11 matches (72.7%) and RPS has won 5 out of 7 matches (71.4%). Hence, conventional logic would suggest that the team which wins the toss will elect to chase. However, one look at IPL finals over the years reveal, that in the high-pressure situation of the title match, teams have been more successful when defending - out of 9 nine previous editions, 6 titles have been won by the team which batted first in the finals. IPL finals have produced high scores (4 times, a 200+ target was set, including in each of the previous three years) and the teams that've won when batting first, have mostly sailed to comfortable victories. On the other hand, teams chasing have always had it close and the most comfortable victory (by KKR in 2014) came with just 3 balls to spare!

Counter the spinner threat

Washington Sundar was very effective in the Qualifier 1, taking 3 top order wickets of MI, and RPS will most likely use him again upfront. Throwing in an aggressive, tall left-hander (Krunal Pandya or, even Mitch McClenaghan) may work for MI. Even though Sundar is an offie, he doesn't spin the ball a long way, mainly relies on off-breaks and bowls on the middle-stump line. Hence, a lefty's slog / conventional sweep as well as inside out shot over covers (whenever there's spin) would be a safe and a very effective way of nullifying the Sundar-threat. The other spinner who's caused a bit of strife i.e. Imran Tahir won't play, and that should work out as an advantage for MI.

Counter the slower ones from the seamers

The RPS seamers have bowled many varieties of slower ones, esp. in the last 5 overs, and that has kept the MI power hitters (Pollard, Hardik Pandya) in check. Both Pollard and Hardik prefer hitting down the ground, without moving too much in their crease, and such attempts haven't been effective against the slower ones / knuckle balls that are bowled just short of good length. MI need an innovative striker who can also play the ramp shots, paddle sweeps, late cuts etc. Hence, the role of Ambati Rayudu becomes very crucial. He should ideally come in at no. 4 and should look to bat till the end.

Bowling combination

Leg spinners and left-arm spinners have been very successful against the predominantly right-handed batting line up of RPS. This was possibly the reason why MI chose to drop their most economical bowler, Harbhajan Singh, in the previous match and played both Karn Sharma as well as Krunal Pandya. I believe, MI will continue with this strategy for the title clash. McClenaghan, who didn't play in the Qualifier 2 against KKR due to injury, will also likely sit out. In case, he replaces Johnson, ideally Rohit would like to use him up by the 15th over. The last four overs should be shared between Bumrah, Hardik Pandya and, unless Dhoni is on the crease, Malinga. These bowlers generally deploy a judicious mix of slower ones (at different lengths) and yorkers and it's that ability to keep the batsmen guessing which is most effective, esp. when batsmen are looking to score off every ball. 

Conclusion

Both the finalists of the first IPL (2008) were banned for two years in 2015, and one of the finalists of 2017 (RPS) may not play next year. RPS would want to finish on a high by winning the tournament and thereby, making a strong case for inclusion next year (IPL rules are likely to be overhauled for the next edition). And MI, which had a very poor initiation in IPL - having finished outside top 4 in the first two editions (no. 5 in 2008, no. 7 in 2009) - recently became the only team with 100+ T20 wins. Since 2009, MI has finished in the top four in 7 out of IPL 8 editions (including four times in the top two). They would want to cap off the first decade of IPL by winning their third title and sealing the bragging rights as the most successful IPL team. Individually, Rohit Sharma is going for his 4th IPL title (won 2 with MI and 1 with Deccan Chargers) while Dhoni will be looking to win his 3rd (won 2 with CSK). If this title clash can match the drama and excitement of the 2008 final, the fans would've got their money's worth. Let's play!  

  

IPL 2017: If April was hot, May will be hotter!

A sprint is comprised of three broad phases - drive, maximum velocity, maintenance. During the drive phase, the sprinter begins in a crouched position as he bursts from a dead still position into a sprint, and strives to make use of his entire body. In the maximum velocity phase, the sprinter is in a fully erect position and achieves top speed. Lastly, in the maintenance phase, the sprinter's goal is to minimize deceleration, as he cannot maintain top speed for the entire race. 

Sprint is an apt comparison with the freneticism that IPL represents. And like in a sprint, we've seen various IPL editions go through similar phases. Some teams, like a standard sprinter, start in the best possible manner, making best use of available resources, and try to gain maximum momentum for the latter half of the tournament. Others, like Usain Bolt, start slowly but continue to build momentum as they move to the knockout stage. Every IPL has thrown up both kinds. 

For example, at the halfway stage in IPL 2016, neither of the finalists (SRH and RCB) were in the top four. In fact, the runners-up RCB were languishing at the 7th spot. They then made a strong surge, finished in the top two at the end of the league stage and eventually made the finals. On the other hand, there were the table toppers Gujarat Lions, who figured in the top 2 almost throughout the league stage but failed to make the finals. Similarly, in the 2015 edition, Mumbai Indians, having endured another poor start, were placed 7th halfway through the tournament. Like RCB in 2016, MI too made a strong surge towards the end, finishing in the top two and eventually did one better than RCB, by winning the 2015 edition. Meanwhile, the table toppers, Chennai Super Kings, were in the top two throughout the league phase and eventually made the finals.

Nearly 60% of league matches of IPL 2017 are done and dusted. By now, the well prepared teams have settled into their winning combination while the not-so-well-prepared ones are running helter skelter to find one. Or, in sprint terminology, the drive phase is over and we are in the midst of the maximum velocity phase. The points table, which was previously getting overhauled after each match, is now seeing marginal adjustments. Hence, this is a good time to take a look at those aspects, that make up the team combinations, and have impacted the league standings so far. Basically, we look at the following:

• Batting - opening combinations
• Batting strategy
• Bowling strategy
• Performance of all-rounder
• Performance of wicket-keeper

How are the teams stacked up?

A cursory glance at the points table at different stages during the 2017 edition (see below), will reveal how certain teams have maintained consistently strong performances, certain others have made a comeback of sorts and the remaining few have slipped. 

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Source: ESPNcricinfo.com

While Mumbai Indians (MI), Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) have remained in the top 4 throughout, Kings XI Punjab (KXIP) has slipped after a good start. Rising Pune Supergiant (RPS), which has won 4 out of their last 5 matches, is now making a strong surge. So is Gujarat Lions (GL), which seems to be finally getting its act together, with key players back in form. Delhi Daredevils (DD), despite boasting of the strongest pace bowling attack and after getting off to a good start, hasn't got its batting strategy right and this has cost them a place in the top 5. Lastly, Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) has mostly not turned up, barring a rare good performance - RCB has consistently hugged the bottom of the table.

For the purpose of the analyses below, I've divided the teams into three categories based on their performances so far (all analyses below is upto Match no. 33, featuring KXIP vs. SRH on 28th April 2017):

• Leaders - Teams with more than 50% wins and +ve NRR; MI, KKR and SRH
• Laggards - Teams with 40-50% wins or -ve NRR; RPS
• Also-rans - Teams with less than 40% wins; GL, KXIP, DD and RCB

Opening batting combination

One of the most crucial aspects of a strong batting lineup, esp. in a T20 match, is whether the opening combination is settled or not. Successful teams typically have:

• A stable opening pair
• Opening pair regularly gets a partnership of 30+ runs 
• As a result, the team manages to score 50+ in the powerplay without losing more than 2 wickets.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

MI and SRH have stuck to the same opening pair for all their matches, and they've got 30+ run partnerships on 5 occasions each. While MI has scored 53 runs on an average in the powerplays (losing 2 wickets), SRH has managed only 46 runs (losing only 1 wicket). This go slow approach by SRH seemed deliberate in the first few matches, as the normally aggressive Warner assumed the role of a sheet anchor and SRH had their hitters in Henriques, Hooda and Yuvraj following immediately after the openers. This has changed in the last few matches as they've got Williamson at no. 3, allowing both Warner and Dhawan to bat a little more aggressively.

KKR meanwhile has adopted a different strategy. With Gambhir anchoring the innings, they've given the license to the other opener to go for broke from ball 1. They started their campaign with the big-hitting Chris Lynn but once Lynn was injured, they promoted Sunil Narine up the order, and the Trinidadian has delivered big time for his team (141 runs at a strike rate of 178). KKR too has a settled opening pair now, with Gambhir and Narine opening together in the last 6 matches.

RPS has used 3 openers and their powerplay numbers are more impressive than both MI and SRH. They've got an opening partnership in excess of 30 on four occasions and their average score after powerplays is 53 (losing 1 wicket in the process). While RPS first tried Mayank Agarwal alongside Rahane, they've now settled for Rahul Tripathi instead of Agarwal. Tripathi has been one of the finds of the tournament scoring 216 runs at a strike rate of 154+, so far.

GL has tried a horses for courses approach, with McCullum as a fixture at one end and experimentation with four other openers at the other. They started with Jason Roy, then moved to Dwayne Smith, had Finch open on a couple of occasions when Smith was struggling against spinners, and then, in the last match against RCB, they sent in the left-handed Ishan Kishan to counter the threat of two leg-spinners in the RCB lineup. Finch has been used as a floater while Smith has now been moved to lower middle order. GL's run rate seems to be impressive but they are still yearning for consistency at the top.

On the other hand, KXIP has a settled opening pair in Amla and Manan Vohra with Shaun Marsh tried for one match, when Vohra was injured and Guptill tried once, when Amla was injured.

Neither of the bottom two teams have a settled opening pair. DD have tried four combinations with four openers (Samson, Billings, Tare and Karun Nair) and the opening wicket still averages only 29. Lastly, the star-studded RCB hasn't got their opening pair right, having looked at 5 different openers and 5 different opening combinations in their 8 matches! Obviously, Virat Kohli's injury hampered their opening strategy but even though he's back, RCB isn't sure whether Gayle fits into their overall scheme of things. The result has been just three partnerships of 30+ runs and an average PP score of 40. It's probably fair to say that the also-rans group has been hampered due to instability or consistency at the top.

Batting strategy

Let's now take a look at the batting strategy adopted by various teams. For this purpose, I've divided the innings into the following three phases:

1. Powerplay overs - Overs 1 to 6
2. Middle overs - Overs 7 to 16
3. Slog/end overs - Overs 17 to 20

I've then looked at the average run rates of teams during these phases to understand the strategy adopted by the various teams. Looking at the phase-wise run-rates:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

From the above charts, I believe it's more relevant to look at the first innings chart (for this purpose) since the run-rates while batting 2nd are driven by the target being chased. We can clearly witness the following two types of batting strategies from the above chart (first innings):

1. Start briskly, consolidate in the middle overs and then explode at the death - strategy followed by MI, KKR, RPS, DD and GL.
2. Start slowly, increase the run rate in the middle overs and continue to maximize run-scoring towards the death - strategy adopted by SRH, KXIP and RCB

The above strategy becomes evident if one looks at the batting orders of the respective teams.

Bowling combination

How about bowling combinations? While T20 started out as a batsman's game with bowlers playing supporting characters, over time this has changed. Champion T20 teams of today have very strong bowling line-ups and the captains generally have 6-7 bowling options. Let's look at the bowling combinations (pace and spin) that the teams have used so far in the 2017 edition.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

From the above charts, it's very clear that KKR and RCB have relied on spin much more (~45% of total balls bowled) than the pace-heavy line-ups of DD (25%), MI (31%) and SRH (33%). KKR has played Kuldeep Yadav and Sunil Narine in almost all matches and got them to bowl their full quota; plus, they've also played Piyush Chawla and Shakib Al Hasan occasionally. RCB too has relied heavily on the spin of Chahal, Negi and Badree.

On the other hand, DD has mainly played four fast bowlers (Morris, Cummins, Zaheer and now Rabada) and after playing Nadeem alongside Mishra for the first three matches, is now solely relying on Mishra as the spin option. MI too has utilized Harbhajan as the main spinner with the all-rounder Krunal Pandya playing the supporting role on a few occasions. On the other hand, SRH has completely relied on the Afghan star, Rashid Khan, as their sole spinning option (except for a couple of matches).

One look at the economy rate comparison between pace and spin (chart below) tells us that teams should look to utilize spinners a little more.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

Even when comparing bowling averages or strike rates, spinners don't suffer in comparison to the pacers.

Lastly, we also look at the no. of bowlers that various teams have tried (pace and spin), subject to certain minimum criteria. One would notice that the top teams generally have a settled line-up.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

Performance of all-rounders

In order to make up for one or two bowlers having a bad day (or a bad match-up against a particular batsman who's in devastating form), most IPL captains increasingly prefer at least 6 bowlers in the line-up. This makes the role of all-rounders crucial. And these all-rounders typically contribute by scoring runs briskly and keeping the runs down while bowling (economy rates are as useful as wickets in a T20 match). I've taken a look at all-rounders across various IPL teams, applied criteria of at least 50 runs scored while batting and at least 4 overs bowled. Then I've compared the batting strike rate with the economy rate (per 100 balls) and taken the difference between the two (calling this All-Rounders' Index). Eliminating the negative ARIs i.e. where batting strike rate is less than bowling economy rate, this is what we get:

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

Sunil Narine with an ARI of +67.5 is very much the standout amongst the all-rounders and is one of the primary reasons why KKR is on top of the points table. For MI, the Pandya brothers have provided incredible balance to the side. Ben Stokes has been the talisman for RPS (as was amply on display in the MI-RPS match at Wankhede). Similarly, DD's fortunes have fluctuated with the rise and fall of Chris Morris' form. In the initial stages he set the tournament on fire, bowling with pace and taking wickets upfront, and providing the late burst while batting. This enabled DD to get off to a good start but as Morris' form has dipped, so have DD's performances. Needless to say, a good all-rounder is critical to his team's fortunes.

Wicket-keepers - key to team balance 

What about wicket-keepers, I hear many of you ask! In modern cricketing terminology, a wicket-keeper, if also a capable batsman, is considered as an all-rounder. And team managements clearly demand that wicket-keepers contribute handsomely with the bat. For almost all IPL teams (except SRH), the wicket-keeper is also a key batsman - either playing in the top order (Uthappa, Parthiv, Jadhav) or coming at the back end to get some quick runs (Dhoni, Karthik, Saha and Pant). So, it's imperative that we look at their performances from a team composition perspective. For the following analysis, I've devised a composite batting metric (called batting index) that combines the run per innings (RPI; not the average) and strike rate per 100 balls. It's a product of the two parameters; so basically, if a batsman scores 40 runs in an innings at a strike rate of 90, the batter's performance is penalized as the batting index works out to 36 (40 x 0.9). Conversely, if he scored the same number of runs at a strike rate of 125, the batting index works out to a significantly better 50.  

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com
* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

From a batting perspective, Robin Uthappa has been the most outstanding performer with a batting index of 69.5 - far ahead of the competition. This too has enabled KKR to remain the front-runners in the current edition. Other notable performers include Jadhav and Karthik.

Data source: ESPNcricinfo.com

* Doesn't include the RCB-SRH match that was abandoned due to rain

The primary job of a keeper, however, is keeping wickets. For analyzing the keeping performance, we take a look at dismissals per innings as well as extras conceded per innings (byes which are attributable to the keeper). Here, it's the Indian test wicket-keepers (present or past) who've been especially tidy - look at the extras / innings for Parthiv, Dhoni, Karthik and Saha. In terms of dismissals / innings, Uthappa and Pant stand out, but a lot of that has to do with the type and quality of bowling line-ups that their respective teams possess.

Conclusion

In a 100 mtr sprint, most runners achieve top speed around the 60 mtr mark and they try to maintain this speed till the 80 mtr mark. It can be argued that KKR, MI and SRH are fast approaching that stage. They've ticked most of the boxes - stable opening pair in line with the batting strategy, bowlers performing their assigned roles, key all-rounder(s) identified and wicket-keeper contributing both behind, as well as, in-front of the stumps. The focus will remain on making the play-offs and possibly finishing in the top 2 (thereby securing two chances to qualify for the finals). 

On the other hand, the laggards will look to play catch up and possibly go for an all-out attack. Expect them to be more ruthless with their selections in the coming matches. They'll be less reliant on strategy, more on scrapping. And also, hopeful to do a Usain Bolt. The 8-time Olympic gold medalist is a renowned slow-starter who hits the highest velocity in the 60-80 mtr phase and then maintains this speed almost till the finishing line. Not a bad example to emulate!