French Open 2017: Semi-final preview

After 12 gruelling days on the red clay of Paris, we are down to four men. Three of them are grand slam winners, two of them have won here in the past but only one of them didn't reach this stage at least once in the last two years! And no that guy isn't Dominic Thiem, but Rafael Nadal! Yet, it doesn't seem strange that a lot of experts favour Nadal in his quest for La Decima.

Given the clay-court form coming into this French Open, the line-up isn't a big surprise (see my French Open preview). The only surprise has been, ironically the world no. 1 Andy Murray, who has arrested a worrying slump in form, to make his 4th consecutive semi-final at Roland Garros. And true to form, the other three semi-finalists (Nadal, Wawrinka, Thiem) haven't even dropped a set. Given the match-ups, we have an equal probability of getting either a first-time winner or a repeat winner.

SF1: Power of Wawrinka vs. Defense of Murray

This will be a repeat of last year's semi-final where many reckon, that the Scot played his best clay-court match ever to overcome Stan in four sets and make his first French Open final. So what will it take for Murray to repeat the dose this year? Well, I would say a couple of things - for Murray to somehow regain the form he showed after his loss in the Roland Garros finals last year; and for Stan to somehow suffer a massive dip in performance levels. If it's only the former, we'll have a cracker of a match. Given the stage of the tournament, Stan will be expected to put in a power-packed performance. His form has gotten better as the tournament has progressed and his overwhelming straight-sets victory over an in-form Cilic in the quarters, was a clay-court masterclass. Importantly, Stan is playing closer to the baseline and yet, he's been able to put the same power behind his groundstrokes. Murray's form has also improved but as we saw in the quarter-finals against an erratic Nishikori, he can blow hot and cold, sometimes in the same set. I expect Wawrinka to come through in four sets.

SF2: A passing of the baton moment?

Nadal and Thiem have already met thrice on clay this season, with Nadal winning two of those three encounters. The Spaniard has put in an astounding performance at this year's open, having lost just 22 games en-route to the semis (the lowest in terms of games in his 26 grand slam semi-final runs). He's had a great season so far, having already won 3 clay-court tournaments and in the eyes of many experts, he's primed to win his 10th Roland Garros title this year. However, Thiem's best surface too is clay and his semi-final showing this year has proved that his 2016 performance was no flash in the pan. He's the only player to beat Nadal on clay in 2017 and his performance in Paris has been outstanding. He hasn't lost a set and his two bagel sets (6-0) have come against the talented Tomic in the first round (2nd set) and against Djokovic in the quarters (3rd set). In addition, he's had four breadstick sets too (6-1). His demolition of Djokovic was as breathtaking and incredible as unexpected. In Djokovic, he conquered the 2nd best clay-court player in the world (based on performance over the last 3-4 years) and his reward now is to overcome the best clay-court player ever. Can he do it? Will we witness a passing of the baton moment? I'll stick my neck out and say, yes. I believe Thiem's time has come and he'll overcome Nadal in five tight sets. In the process, taking over the mantle as the best clay courter of the next generation.