Let's start with a short quiz. When was the last time India played Pakistan in a major tournament final? Most of you will get it right - it was indeed the ICC T20 World Cup final 10 years ago. But what if the question was limited to finals of ODI tournaments involving more than 3 teams? One has to go back more than 23 years i.e. to April 1994, when the then reigning world champions, Pakistan, beat India in the finals of Australasia Cup (in Sharjah) to win their 3rd successive title. And the last time India and Pakistan met in the finals of a major global ODI tournament was in March 1985, when the then World Cup holder, India, beat Pakistan in the finals of the World Championship of Cricket (held in Australia).
The South Asian cricketing giants have met less frequently in the last decade or so, as volatile political environment has restricted bilateral tours. The cricketing world has been poorer for this. This, and the fact that Pakistan is still banned from hosting cricket in their own country (8th year running) as well as excluded from IPL, has seen India-Pakistan matches lose their edge recently. This is such a far cry from those two decades (mid 80s to mid 2000s) when India and Pakistan ODI encounters produced edge-of-the-seat thrillers. Cricket fans would remember the match when India won while defending a lowly 125 runs in Sharjah (1985) or when Miandad hit a last-ball six off a Chetan Sharma full-toss to help Pakistan win the first Australasia Cup, also in Sharjah (1986). We all remember the world cup encounters, esp. the 1996 quarter-finals and the 2003 slug-fest. But, how many of you remember that 40-over ODI in 1987 where India, having set Pakistan a target of 239 and having them struggling at 174/6, still lost mainly due to Salim Malik's brilliance (who scored 72 of the last 80 runs at a strike rate of 200!)? Or, even that 1991 match in Sharjah where a young Tendulkar almost helped India chase down 258 against a bowling line-up comprising Wasim Akram, Aaqib Javed and Waqar Younis, in fading light (India lost by 4 runs!). Sharjah may have slowly faded into insignificance but India and Pakistan continued producing thrilling encounters - in Toronto (1996), when India lost by 2 wickets when defending 264 and despite having Pakistan down at 221/8 (Salim Malik the tormentor again); in Dhaka (1998) when India won the Independence Cup by chasing down a then-record 315 (won by 3 wickets); in Brisbane (2000) when Pakistan won by 2 wickets when chasing 196 and looking down and out at 153/8 (Saqlain and Waqar, as batsmen!); in 2004 (Karachi), when India sneaked home by 5 runs despite setting Pakistan a huge target of 350, as Moin Khan couldn't do a Miandad off the last ball, despite getting a full-toss.
Although, India and Pakistan produce the occasional brilliant game even now, since 2006 India have dominated their neighbours, having won 17 out of 27 completed games. Contrast this with the overall record - it still stands at 72 wins for Pakistan vs. 52 wins for India. Their first game in the Champions Trophy 2017 was representative of how India has dominated Pakistan since 2006. Pakistan will hope that there's no encore in the final.
India, the pre-tournament favourite, has lived up to their reputation and are functioning like a well-oiled machine. The top order has been both solid as well as swashbuckling, with Dhawan and Rohit topping the run charts and Kohli too in the top 5. Each of the middle and late order batsmen have played at least one significant innings or cameo. While Bumrah and Bhuvneshwar Kumar haven't picked up a bunch of wickets, they've been very economical (going at less than 4.75 RPO). The fielding has been very good too, with the fielders effecting 6 run outs so far and catching having improved significantly since the first match against Pakistan. Except for the 2nd innings against Sri Lanka, India has been very clinical in all their other games. They've won when defending a target (against Pakistan) as well as when chasing one (South Africa, Bangladesh).
Yet, certain phases of their bowling performance in the league game against Sri Lanka as well as the semi-final against Bangladesh will worry Virat Kohli and Anil Kumble. India's bowling has been largely unsuccessful to pick up wickets in the middle-overs. Sri Lanka successfully chased down 322 quite comfortably while Bangladesh, having crossed 150 in the 27th over for the loss of just 2 wickets, were on course for a 320+ score before the part-time off-spin of Kedar Jadhav induced a mid-innings collapse. In the finals, India will surely demand more wickets from their front-line spinners (esp. Ashwin) as well as their pace-bowling all-rounder, Hardik Pandya.
Pakistan has been the most improved side in this tournament. They were the bottom-most ranked team when the tournament began (at no. 8) and even their most ardent fans gave them little chance to make the finals. But the Pakistani team decided to live up to its age-hold billing as "mercurial and maverick". After the big loss against India in their tournament opener and having lost Wahab Riaz due to injury, facing the top-ranked South Africa in a must-win game was daunting. But they've strung together a series of such amazing bowling performances that they've restricted strong batting line-ups of South Africa, Sri Lanka and England for less than 250 in 3 successive games. This has mainly been on account of penetrative middle-over pace bowling by Pakistan and this hasn't allowed the opposition to follow the tried-and-tested model of accumulation in the middle-overs followed by acceleration towards the end. Hasan Ali and Junaid Khan are amongst the top 5 wicket-takers and as a result, they've been economical too (less than 5 RPO).
However, Pakistan's batting is still a big concern. They got slightly lucky against South Africa with rain and D/L coming for help. Then, they were staring at defeat against Sri Lanka when chasing a modest 237 before an unbroken 8th wicket partnership of 75 runs rescued them. It was only against England in the semi-final that Pakistan produced a clinical batting display to chase down 212 with 8 wickets in hand and 77 balls to spare. Yet, Pakistan will be very aware of India's batting depth and it's unlikely, in case they are chasing, that they'll face a less-than-250 target in the finals.
The Romance of India-Pakistan encounters!
The South Asian cricketing giants have met less frequently in the last decade or so, as volatile political environment has restricted bilateral tours. The cricketing world has been poorer for this. This, and the fact that Pakistan is still banned from hosting cricket in their own country (8th year running) as well as excluded from IPL, has seen India-Pakistan matches lose their edge recently. This is such a far cry from those two decades (mid 80s to mid 2000s) when India and Pakistan ODI encounters produced edge-of-the-seat thrillers. Cricket fans would remember the match when India won while defending a lowly 125 runs in Sharjah (1985) or when Miandad hit a last-ball six off a Chetan Sharma full-toss to help Pakistan win the first Australasia Cup, also in Sharjah (1986). We all remember the world cup encounters, esp. the 1996 quarter-finals and the 2003 slug-fest. But, how many of you remember that 40-over ODI in 1987 where India, having set Pakistan a target of 239 and having them struggling at 174/6, still lost mainly due to Salim Malik's brilliance (who scored 72 of the last 80 runs at a strike rate of 200!)? Or, even that 1991 match in Sharjah where a young Tendulkar almost helped India chase down 258 against a bowling line-up comprising Wasim Akram, Aaqib Javed and Waqar Younis, in fading light (India lost by 4 runs!). Sharjah may have slowly faded into insignificance but India and Pakistan continued producing thrilling encounters - in Toronto (1996), when India lost by 2 wickets when defending 264 and despite having Pakistan down at 221/8 (Salim Malik the tormentor again); in Dhaka (1998) when India won the Independence Cup by chasing down a then-record 315 (won by 3 wickets); in Brisbane (2000) when Pakistan won by 2 wickets when chasing 196 and looking down and out at 153/8 (Saqlain and Waqar, as batsmen!); in 2004 (Karachi), when India sneaked home by 5 runs despite setting Pakistan a huge target of 350, as Moin Khan couldn't do a Miandad off the last ball, despite getting a full-toss.
Although, India and Pakistan produce the occasional brilliant game even now, since 2006 India have dominated their neighbours, having won 17 out of 27 completed games. Contrast this with the overall record - it still stands at 72 wins for Pakistan vs. 52 wins for India. Their first game in the Champions Trophy 2017 was representative of how India has dominated Pakistan since 2006. Pakistan will hope that there's no encore in the final.
What has India done well so far in Champions Trophy 2017?
India, the pre-tournament favourite, has lived up to their reputation and are functioning like a well-oiled machine. The top order has been both solid as well as swashbuckling, with Dhawan and Rohit topping the run charts and Kohli too in the top 5. Each of the middle and late order batsmen have played at least one significant innings or cameo. While Bumrah and Bhuvneshwar Kumar haven't picked up a bunch of wickets, they've been very economical (going at less than 4.75 RPO). The fielding has been very good too, with the fielders effecting 6 run outs so far and catching having improved significantly since the first match against Pakistan. Except for the 2nd innings against Sri Lanka, India has been very clinical in all their other games. They've won when defending a target (against Pakistan) as well as when chasing one (South Africa, Bangladesh).
Yet, certain phases of their bowling performance in the league game against Sri Lanka as well as the semi-final against Bangladesh will worry Virat Kohli and Anil Kumble. India's bowling has been largely unsuccessful to pick up wickets in the middle-overs. Sri Lanka successfully chased down 322 quite comfortably while Bangladesh, having crossed 150 in the 27th over for the loss of just 2 wickets, were on course for a 320+ score before the part-time off-spin of Kedar Jadhav induced a mid-innings collapse. In the finals, India will surely demand more wickets from their front-line spinners (esp. Ashwin) as well as their pace-bowling all-rounder, Hardik Pandya.
What has propelled Pakistan to their first Champions Trophy final?
Pakistan has been the most improved side in this tournament. They were the bottom-most ranked team when the tournament began (at no. 8) and even their most ardent fans gave them little chance to make the finals. But the Pakistani team decided to live up to its age-hold billing as "mercurial and maverick". After the big loss against India in their tournament opener and having lost Wahab Riaz due to injury, facing the top-ranked South Africa in a must-win game was daunting. But they've strung together a series of such amazing bowling performances that they've restricted strong batting line-ups of South Africa, Sri Lanka and England for less than 250 in 3 successive games. This has mainly been on account of penetrative middle-over pace bowling by Pakistan and this hasn't allowed the opposition to follow the tried-and-tested model of accumulation in the middle-overs followed by acceleration towards the end. Hasan Ali and Junaid Khan are amongst the top 5 wicket-takers and as a result, they've been economical too (less than 5 RPO).
However, Pakistan's batting is still a big concern. They got slightly lucky against South Africa with rain and D/L coming for help. Then, they were staring at defeat against Sri Lanka when chasing a modest 237 before an unbroken 8th wicket partnership of 75 runs rescued them. It was only against England in the semi-final that Pakistan produced a clinical batting display to chase down 212 with 8 wickets in hand and 77 balls to spare. Yet, Pakistan will be very aware of India's batting depth and it's unlikely, in case they are chasing, that they'll face a less-than-250 target in the finals.
So how does it look like?
If one looks at the strong and weak areas of both teams, they represent perfect contrasts. India will love to have Pakistan's bowling penetration in the middle-overs while Pakistan will feel complete if they can match India's batting prowess at the top order. To the die-hard fans on either side, this would sound very similar to a recurring theme in the 90s - Indian fans wished their team had a bowling attack (esp. fast bowlers) like Pakistan and Pakistani fans wondered when they'll get the kind of batting depth like India.
The weather seems to be clear for the final and hence, toss may prove critical. Both teams would like to chase, esp. Pakistan. The final will be played on a fresh track and this may aid run-scoring. For Pakistan, Mohammad Amir will likely be back while India may retain the same team that won the semi-final. If India bat first, they'll look for a score close to 300 (may not want to go hard for a 325+ score). If they bat second, the Indian team would be confident of chasing down any score upto 325. Let's hope for a repeat of the high-scoring Independence Cup final in 1998 (the third final). That'll surely rekindle the old romance!
