French Open 2017: Top contenders

French Open 2017 will mark one full year of major upheaval in men's tennis, esp. at the top. Cast your minds back to May 2016 - Djokovic arrived in Paris, having won the three previous slams; he went on to clinch his 1st French Open title and thereby complete his career slam. Andy Murray had started to put together a string of strong clay court performances, having defeated Djokovic at Rome and he went on to reach his first final at Roland Garros, becoming the first Britisher since 1937 to do so. These two had also contested the Australian Open final that year as well as the finals of the previous two ATP Masters 1000 clay court tourneys. What about the other two members of the Big Four? Nadal, who had a good start to the clay court season in 2016 (winning Monte Carlo and Barcelona), then went on to suffer straight-set defeats against Murray (at Madrid) and Djokovic (at Rome), respectively. Nadal had to ultimately withdraw from the 3rd round at Paris, citing wrist injury. And injury is what kept Federer away from French Open 2016, ending his astonishing record of 65 consecutive grand slam appearances.

Coming into French Open 2017, however, things look very different. Djokovic's win-loss record this year reads a fairly middling 20-6 with just one title (at Doha, before the Australian Open). In 2016, those numbers were 37-3 with five titles. Andy Murray, the world no. 1, has had an even more disappointing 2017; his win-loss record this year is 16-7 overall and a ridiculously poor 4-4 on clay. On the other hand, Nadal has had a resurgence of sorts. The king of clay is already 36-6 this year and an even more impressive 17-1 on clay, with all his three titles coming on the red dirt. Three of those losses have come at the hands of his great rival, Roger Federer, who's decided to skip Roland Garros for the 2nd year in succession. This time, however, the absence is more tactical instead of being injury-induced, as the Swiss, having won at Melbourne, targets the faster courts of Wimbledon and US Open in the autumn of his career.

The most unpredictable slam!

If one glances through the list of top grand slam winners (29 winners) who've won at least 5 titles, one notices that out of a total 244 grand slam titles between them, French Open comes in at the last (constituting 42 titles or 17.2%). 

Source: Wikipedia

The numbers would've been even more skewed if not for the apathy the earlier champions showed for Australian Open. It's common knowledge that a lot of top Open-era players (Bjorn Borg, for example) skipped travelling Down Under due to scheduling (A.O. was earlier held at the end of the season), travel times involved etc. The tournament was rescheduled to January in 1987. 

If we look at slam winners since 1988 (i.e. the year Australian Open moved from grass to hard court), French Open has seen the most number of unique winners. Despite Nadal's dominance on the red clay of Paris (with 9 titles), the French Open has seen 17 different winners out of 29 titles (A.O. - 14; Wimbledon - 12; US Open - 16). Additionally, if we look at solitary title wins at the respective slams, French Open again comes out at the top (10 players with a single French Open title); the corresponding figures for other slams are A.O. - 7, Wimbledon - 6, US Open - 8.

The table below captures the respective GS winners since 1998 from amongst the list of top 29 champions (i.e. players with 5+ GS titles; as described above). Both in terms of number of winning players and no. of titles by those players, the French Open stands out.

Source: Wikipedia

Similarly, the table below captures the number of such GS winners from outside the top 29 champions (i.e. players with < 5 GS titles). It also shows other GS titles captured by these winners (i.e. outside the respective Open). On this parameter, French Open and Wimbledon stand out but Wimbledon has the least number of unique winners and most proportion of winners from Top 29. In other words, there are some one Slam wonders amongst Wimbledon winners but they are far lower in comparison to various champion players who've won multiple titles.

  

Top contenders at Paris

Between 2005 and 2014, Rafael Nadal won 9 out of the 10 French Open titles. Over the last two years, however, we've had two first-time champions - Stan Wawrinka in 2015 and Djokovic in 2016. Will we see the trend continue in 2017? Or will the 9-time champion regain his stranglehold on The Musketeers' Trophy?

Nadal remains the top contender for this year's French Open. He's won 3 of the 4 major clay court tournaments leading up to Roland Garros. In the course of his 3 titles (Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid), he lost just two sets. His 2017 nemesis, Federer, isn't playing. He'll face stiff challenge from the other two strong contenders, Djokovic and Dominic Thiem, who are both in his half of the draw (bottom half). Thiem is on a high, stringing together a 17-4 clay court record and has been the only player to overcome Rafa on clay this year. He reached the finals both at Barcelona and Madrid, losing to the Spanish giant on each occasion, before he finally overcame Nadal in the quarters at Rome. The 6th seed, Thiem was also a semi-finalist at Roland Garros last year and makes a strong case as the no. 2 contender.

The 2nd ranked Djokovic hasn't had a great year on clay. He's racked up an ordinary 8-3 record on clay but his performances have shown a gradual improvement. After losing to Goffin in the quarters at Monte-Carlo, he reached the semis at Madrid (lost to Nadal) and then the finals at Rome (lost to Alexander Zverev). The defending champion has inducted Andre Agassi as his coach, plus his pedigree on clay as well as recent record against Nadal (4-2 on clay and 9-2 overall since 2014) would definitely make him one of the strongest contenders. He's drawn to meet Thiem in the quarters and Nadal in the semis, in a heavily-loaded bottom half. The bottom half also has some dangerous floaters in Goffin, Ramos-Vinolas and Dimitrov.  

The top half of the draw contains, in my view, the two dark horses of this year's open. Alexander Zverev has put together a very impressive win-loss record of 16-3 on clay, with two titles including the ATP Masters 1000 Rome (Italian Open), defeating Djokovic in the finals. He's entered Top 10 for the first time (going in to Roland Garros as world no. 10) and is set to better his 2016 win-loss record. He's slated to start against Verdasco in the first round, and occupies the same quarter of the draw as Berdych and world no. 1, Murray, but I expect him to make it to the semis this year. Last but not the least, is the world no. 3 and 2015 champion, Stan Wawrinka. His overall win-loss record this year is an ordinary 16-8 while his record on clay is 6-3. Stan has always blown hot, blown cold outside grand slams. However, in grand slams, since the beginning of 2015, he's won two, reached the semis of four others as well as the quarters at one. Across five sets and towards the latter part of a grand slam tournament, Stan is as good as any of the Big Four. That's why, in my view, he should be considered as a very strong contender. Watch out for Pablo Cuevas and Fabio Fognini in the top half - they could cause some upsets.

Between 2001 and 2004, Roland Garros witnessed four different champions. And none of them won another grand slam outside French Open. Will we see a new champion emerge this year? Or will the hegemony of the Big Four + Wawrinka, continue? The 2nd Sunday of June will have the answers!   

  

     

IPL 2017: How did Pune manage runners-up?

"How did RPS not become champions of IPL 2017?" That must be the question ringing loudly in Steve Smith's ears as he packs his bags after a 3 month long-tour of India. This was his 2nd heartbreak as captain in less than two months and both came in matches where his team dominated at the outset. The fact that he topped the batting charts in the test series and was also the top run scorer amongst both IPL finalists (no. 4 overall), would be minor consolations. As the skipper of RPS, this snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory, will hurt Smith. And the brute reality of him being at the crease till the final over and esp. when the match was in RPS' control, will confound and hound him in equal measure. What played out at Hyderabad was a classic case of many a slip between the cup and the lip!

Mighty struggle for the MI batters

It all looked very different at the halfway stage, of course. RPS had put in a brilliant bowling display and restricted MI to a manageable 129. In fact, even 129 looked difficult at the 15 over stage. Rohit Sharma won the toss and, in keeping with the tradition in IPL finals, chose to bat first (my previous blog covering this). Unadkat continued his rich vein of form and quickly snuffed out both the MI openers with the team score still in single digits. Rohit Sharma and the local boy, Ambati Rayudu, tried to stem the tide but the going wasn't easy. The man of the match in the previous MI-RPS encounter, off-spinner Washington Sundar, kept things very tight and didn't allow MI to get away in the powerplay. Rohit plundered four boundaries off Ferguson in the 6th over to ensure that MI reached a respectable 32/2 (given the slowish pitch) at the end of powerplay. However, as things were beginning to look slightly better for MI, disaster struck. Rayudu played a firm cover drive, off Ferguson, straight to Smith at mid-off and tried scampering for a non-existent single. He was possibly hoping that Smith would miss hitting directly but the RPS skipper hit the bulls eye, finding Rayudu well short of the crease. At 41/3, MI were hoping that the free-flowing Rohit and the in-form Krunal Pandya would put on a partnership similar to the one in the Qualifier 2 against KKR. However, they were in for a rude shock. In the 11th over, the leg-spinner Adam Zampa first got the benefit of a bigger ground at Uppal when Rohit failed to get the distance while pulling a short delivery, and holed out to deep mid-wicket. In came Kieron Pollard and he looked like he wanted to break the shackles straight away. He smote an effortless six off the first ball he faced but then fell to some tactically brilliant field placement. Possibly on advice from Dhoni, Smith placed a very straight long-off and Pollard duly obliged, hitting a flighted delivery from Zampa, straight to that fielder. Hardik Pandya didn't last long and neither did Karn Sharma. At the end of 15 overs, MI were 81/7 and in real danger of being bowled out for less than 100.

Krunal Pandya rescues MI

The one man standing between RPS and the IPL trophy, however, was the exceptionally smart and versatile, Krunal Pandya. He quickly assessed the nature of the wicket and as the last recognized batsman, decided to delay the late innings assault. Receiving good support from the experienced Mitch Johnson, Pandya demonstrated great improvisation in dealing with both, the slower ones from Unadkat, as well as the seam-up deliveries from Dan Christian. Crucially, MI plundered 37 runs off the last 3 overs and gave their bowlers 129 to defend. MI's hopes now rested on a superlative performance from their more consistent discipline this year i.e. their bowling.

Over-cautious RPS keep MI in the game

Still, given that 129 was the lowest a team had scored when batting first in an IPL final, RPS were heavy favorites going into the 2nd innings. MI needed early breakthroughs and Bumrah did just that, trapping the explosive Tripathi in front. The lanky MI bowler got slightly lucky with the decision as the ball was going just over the stumps. MI should've picked up Rahane also but Krunal Pandya dropped a sitter after Malinga had foxed the RPS opener by a brilliant slower one. Like he has done all IPL, Rohit continuously rotated his bowlers. At the 10 over mark, the game was meandering along with neither MI picking up wickets nor RPS getting ahead of the required run rate (by way of aggressive batting). However this meant that even though MI were sloppy in the field, the combination of miserly bowling and over-cautious batting from Rahane and Smith, kept MI in the game. MI believed (and rightly so) that a couple of wickets could really make this chase, tense.

In the 12th over, the game suddenly opened up. First, Johnson picked up Rahane, thanks to an exceptional catch from Pollard. The tall West Indian ran quickly from long-on and then dived forward to complete an extremely tough catch. Then, RPS decided to bring Dhoni in at no. 4. This was a deviation from their earlier strategy of batting Tiwary at 4 and Dhoni at 5. Possibly, the RPS team management felt that Dhoni would take longer to get in and an equation reading 59 off 49 was manageable with Smith still batting. However, that equation soon became 47 from 30 balls as Karn Sharma, Krunal Pandya and Malinga delivered three exceptional overs, going for just 12 runs! As the tournament's last strategic timeout came about, Dhoni was struggling with 4 from 9 balls and Smith too was scoring at less than run-a-ball (25 off 35 balls). MI was making RPS sweat for every run but with the protagonists of the successful chase from this season's first MI-RPS encounter, at the crease, RPS were still the favorites.

Last 5 overs of IPL 2017 - ebbs and flows

16th over - As Krunal Pandya got ready to bowl his final over, the experience duo of Smith and Dhoni instantly realized that they needed to attack the left-arm spinner by taking calculated risks. Off the 3rd ball, Dhoni used his fast bat speed and strong wrists to hit a vertical bat square cut, and got a welcome boundary. Then off the 5th ball, Smith played, arguably, the shot of the match. He unleashed a powerful reverse sweep and hit it well over the point boundary for a six. 14 runs came off that over, equation was brought down to 33 off 24 balls and Rohit Sharma's gamble of bowling a spinner at this stage of the innings, seemed to have backfired. Advantage RPS!

17th over - Realizing that he needed wickets as well as stem the flow of runs, the MI skipper brought on his trump card and his clutch bowler, Bumrah. Earlier in this season, Bumrah was preferred over Malinga to bowl the superover against Gujarat Lions and he successfully defended 11 against batsmen of the calibre of McCullum and Finch. He was entrusted to bring MI back in the game and he didn't disappoint. Off the 2nd ball of the over, a fast in-cutter got Dhoni slashing and edging to Parthiv Patel. In came Manoj Tiwary and almost immediately had a huge LBW shout turned down. Overall, Bumrah bowled three dot balls (including the wicket-taking delivery) and conceded a single each of the other three balls. To summarize, he brought MI right back into the match with an over of the highest quality. RPS now needed 30 from 18 balls; remember, MI got 37 runs from their last 18 balls! Slight advantage to RPS!

18th over - Malinga was entrusted with bowling the 18th over. The old Sri Lankan warhorse didn't have a great IPL but he was mostly accurate in this match. First four balls included two dots and two singles. Equation climbed up to 28 runs from 14 balls and also went up MI's chances. Then Smith produced another moment of magic - a near yorker on the leg stump was expertly dealt with (by staying deep in the crease) and whipped to the backward square leg fence for a crucial boundary. 7 runs came off Malinga's final over and the equation now read, 23 runs from 12 balls. Still advantage to RPS but MI in with a fair chance!

19th over - Rohit continued with Bumrah for the crucial 19th over. With so much riding on his young shoulders, Bumrah possibly felt the pressure and delivered a full-toss first up. Smith too, possibly nervous, couldn't take full advantage of this and nearly holed out to deep mid-wicket. The next three deliveries went for three singles (1 leg bye). At this stage, the equation read 19 off 8 balls and if Bumrah managed to concede only 2-3 runs, the last over equation would've been very tough for RPS. Instead, Smith, who was sitting very deep in his crease and hence was able to generate leverage for the just-short-of-yorker length, smacked the 5th ball for a six over long-off. The last ball was another high full-toss and yet again, Smith couldn't make a good connection (they ran two). Nevertheless, with 12 runs coming off that over, the equation was down to 11 runs off 6 balls. Big advantage to RPS with MI's chances dimmed slightly!

20th over - In the first MI-RPS encounter this season, Bumrah had delivered the 19th over and by conceding just 7 runs in that over, he left 12 runs to be defended in the final over (and Pollard couldn't defend those). Here, he had gone for 12 runs in the penultimate over and hence, left only 10 runs to defend. However, the key difference was that Rohit had one over from Johnson and hence, didn't have to go to any non-regular bowler. With Tiwary on strike, Johnson bowled the first delivery from over the wicket and his slower one was dispatched for a boundary. Now, just 7 runs were needed off 5 balls - looked like all over for MI! Johnson switched sides and Tiwary, looking for a big hit, got the inside half of the bat (off another slow off-cutter) and his lofted drive landed safely into the big hands of Pollard at long-on. However, importantly for RPS, the batsmen had switched ends as the catch was being taken and hence, with 7 needed off 4 balls, it was Smith on strike. The time for the knockout punch was now or never! Johnson delivered a seam-up delivery just outside off and Smith hit an amazing lofted square drive. The connection was very good and the ball was headed for 6 but it was also headed in the direction of the only outfielder on the off-side, Ambati Rayudu. Rayudu positioned at sweeper cover, plucked out a very good catch since the ball was travelling flat and quick. In fact, a few inches on either side, would've meant a 6 thereby almost finishing off MI's chances. This was a crucial wicket for MI - two wickets in two balls also meant that there were two dot balls. The equation had become a more difficult 7 off 3. And the batsmen couldn't cross in time and hence, instead of Dan Christian, it was Sundar on strike. The batsmen stole a bye on the hattrick ball and it was now in the hands of Christian. 6 needed off 2 and Christian got a length ball on the leg stump but the burly all-rounder couldn't deposit it for a boundary or six. Hardik Pandya dropped a tough chance at deep mid-wicket and the fumble allowed a couple. So it was down to 4 runs off the final ball! Two Aussies faced up to each other with the Indian Premier League trophy on the line! Johnson bowled another quick ball on the leg stump, Christian could only manage to get it to the substitute fielder (Suchith) at deep square leg. Suchith made a nervy stop, possibly aware of the boundary rope behind him, and even fumbled when making the throw. However, his throw was accurate enough and as the RPS batsmen attempted the third, Parthiv Patel effected the run out and MI won the match and hence IPL 2017, by a solitary run! It was an exhilarating performance by MI and they won a match in which, at the innings break, nobody gave them a chance.

Conclusion

This victory was made possible due to excellent all-round bowling performance by MI and over-cautious approach by the RPS batsmen. It was sweet revenge for Rohit and his men and in many ways, this match was a microcosm of all the previous MI-RPS encounters this season. Similar to the first match, it was MI batting first and Smith and Rahane batting well for RPS. In that match too, Smith took the chase to the last over. Also had commonality with the 2nd match; the chasing team botched up a chase which was under their control for most parts. In that game it was MI's skipper Rohit who batted well and brought his team close before falling in the last over, thereby failing to take the team over the finishing line. And Krunal Pandya's late innings (and match winning) assault in this match was very similar to Dhoni's in their last match, both in terms of nature and impact. 

The IPL rules are set for an overhaul this year and, given that CSK and RR will make a comeback next year, a lot of things are likely to change. The first decade of IPL is nicely bookended by two similar last ball finishes. What better advertisement for the edge-of-the-seat thrill that IPL promises!

IPL 2017 final: Who'll make history?

The 3rd Sunday of May will see two-time champions, Mumbai Indians (MI), attempting to do what they haven't achieved since the 1st Sunday of May last year. It was on 1st May 2016 that MI overcame Rising Pune Supergiants (RPS) at Pune and avenged their defeat earlier that season. In the 2017 season, MI and RPS have squared off thrice and on each of those occasions, RPS has defeated MI, with the last victory being the most comprehensive. So, in the finals of IPL 2017, Rohit Sharma and his men would be desperate for revenge.

RPS the bogey team for MI

MI has a 1-4 losing match record against RPS (0-3 this season). A review of MI's 2017 season reveals that they've had their fair share of close matches. But while they've clinched close victories against other opposition, the 2015 champions have come up short against their Maharashtra brethren. In each of those matches, MI has held an upper hand, only for a couple of outstanding individual performances winning the day for RPS. 

In their first match this season, first it was Tahir who put the brakes on MI after they had got off to a fantastic start. Even though lusty hitting in the final overs from Pollard and Hardik Pandya ensured that MI put up a challenging 184, they were undone by Rahane at the top (his best performance of this season; highest score at the best strike rate) and then, when MI seamers threatened to get their team over the line, they were again trumped by Smith who had to hit 2 sixes in the final over to ensure that RPS won with a ball to spare. 

In their second encounter (my blog on that match), Rahane again played a decent hand and combined nicely with Tripathi for the first wicket, to ensure that, despite the middle order wobble, RPS finished with a respectable (albeit, slightly below par) 160. MI openers got off to another good start before Stokes and then the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) brought RPS back into it. Rohit then steadied the ship, played an outstanding innings and was combining well with Pollard when Tahir struck. That proved to be a crucial blow, and Stokes and then Unadkat produced some outstanding death-over bowling to take RPS home by a mere 3 runs! Stokes, especially, was sensational - bowling with pace and hostility, and fielding with verve & vigour. He was duly adjudged the man of the match.

By virtue of being table toppers, MI and RPS clashed again in the first qualifier at Wankhede. RPS batted first and despite Rahane playing well again, all MI bowlers had the wood on the RPS batters till the 18th over. Then Dhoni produced 10 minutes of magic, helping plunder 41 runs off the final two overs and getting RPS to another defendable score of 162. MI again got off to a decent start before two unlucky dismissals combined with outstanding spin bowling from Sundar made MI sweat in the heat of Mumbai and they ultimately fell short by 20 runs. This was a very comprehensive victory and esp. sweet, given that both Stokes and Tahir had left for national duties.

Why the RPS conundrum for MI?

Rahane loves MI bowlers

This season, the Mumbai-lad Ajinkya Rahane has scored 154 runs in 3 matches against MI at a strike rate of 141. This is in sharp contrast to 184 runs in 12 matches (strike rate of 105), against all the other teams. That two of those matches against MI have come at Wankhede, hasn't helped the 2015 IPL champions. Rahane, clearly wants his home city franchise to pay, for not sticking with him!

RPS bowlers' ability to take wickets and choke run scoring

Against RPS, MI has lost 25 wickets in 3 matches (8.3 wickets per match); this again is in sharp contrast to 72 wickets lost in 13 matches against other teams (5.5 wickets per match). That ratio becomes even more skewed when one looks at the numbers when MI chase. Against RPS, MI has lost 17 wickets in 2 matches when chasing (8.5 wickets per match) while the same stat against other teams is 49 wickets in 9 matches (5.4 wickets per match). Both the spinners (Sundar and Tahir) as well as the seamers (Unadkat and Stokes) have picked up wickets at regular intervals, thereby either denying MI any upper hand or sucking out the momentum whenever MI was able to build a partnership. 

In IPL 2017, between overs 7 and 15, RPS bowlers have bowled most dot balls (321), taken most wickets (41) at the lowest economy rate (7.16) - this is clearly a stat that stands out. 

Performance of the big players

In all three matches against MI, one of the star players for RPS has stood up and helped the 2-year old franchise cross the finishing line. It was Steve Smith in the first match, Ben Stokes in the 2nd and the redoubtable Dhoni in the 3rd. Contrast this to the performance of MI's big players (Rohit Sharma, Pollard, Mitch McClenaghan). Pollard sparkled briefly with the bat in the first match but then went for 30 runs in 1.5 overs while bowling (towards the end when other bowlers went for 43 in 5 overs @8.6 RPO) and couldn't defend 13 runs off the final over. Rohit failed in the first match but was sublime in the 2nd. He had scored 58 runs off 38 balls before he fell in the final over and hence couldn't take his team over the line. In the 3rd encounter, when at 121/3 after 18 overs, RPS was staring at a less-than-150 total, McClenaghan went for 26 runs off the crucial 19th over and handed back the momentum to RPS. Each time, at the crunch moments, while RPS' star players delivered, MI's star players flattered to deceive.

What do the performance charts reveal?

There are only two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 15 run-getters this season; Parthiv and Pollard for MI, Smith and Tripathi for RPS. Amongst these, only Smith features in the top 5 (at no. 5) while MI's top run-getter, Parthiv is at no. 8. However, both teams have been served well by consistent performances from multiple batsmen - they have more batsmen scoring 150+ runs in the tournament than both SRH and KKR. Hence, unlike SRH or KKR, the finalists haven't been dependent on 1 or 2 batsmen.  

In the bowling charts, however, there are two players each from MI and RPS amongst the top 5 wicket-takers; McClenaghan and Bumrah for MI, Unadkat and Tahir for RPS. In terms of economy rates, for bowlers who've bowled a minimum of 20 overs, one bowler each from MI and RPS figure in the top 5 (incidentally both offies - Harbhajan for MI; Sundar for RPS). Likewise, in the top 15, there are four bowlers each from MI and RPS (much higher than all other teams). 

It's fair to say that both the finalists boast of a bowling attack, that is frugal as well as penetrative while their batting lineups aren't dependent on 1 or 2 key players.

How can MI secure their 3rd IPL title?

Win toss, bat first

In the 2017 edition, both RPS and MI have a similar record in terms of win ratios when batting 2nd vis-a-vis batting 1st. When defending a target, MI has won 3 out of 5 matches (60% win ratio) and RPS has won 5 out of 8 matches (62.5% win ratio). On the other hand, when chasing a target, MI has won 8 out of 11 matches (72.7%) and RPS has won 5 out of 7 matches (71.4%). Hence, conventional logic would suggest that the team which wins the toss will elect to chase. However, one look at IPL finals over the years reveal, that in the high-pressure situation of the title match, teams have been more successful when defending - out of 9 nine previous editions, 6 titles have been won by the team which batted first in the finals. IPL finals have produced high scores (4 times, a 200+ target was set, including in each of the previous three years) and the teams that've won when batting first, have mostly sailed to comfortable victories. On the other hand, teams chasing have always had it close and the most comfortable victory (by KKR in 2014) came with just 3 balls to spare!

Counter the spinner threat

Washington Sundar was very effective in the Qualifier 1, taking 3 top order wickets of MI, and RPS will most likely use him again upfront. Throwing in an aggressive, tall left-hander (Krunal Pandya or, even Mitch McClenaghan) may work for MI. Even though Sundar is an offie, he doesn't spin the ball a long way, mainly relies on off-breaks and bowls on the middle-stump line. Hence, a lefty's slog / conventional sweep as well as inside out shot over covers (whenever there's spin) would be a safe and a very effective way of nullifying the Sundar-threat. The other spinner who's caused a bit of strife i.e. Imran Tahir won't play, and that should work out as an advantage for MI.

Counter the slower ones from the seamers

The RPS seamers have bowled many varieties of slower ones, esp. in the last 5 overs, and that has kept the MI power hitters (Pollard, Hardik Pandya) in check. Both Pollard and Hardik prefer hitting down the ground, without moving too much in their crease, and such attempts haven't been effective against the slower ones / knuckle balls that are bowled just short of good length. MI need an innovative striker who can also play the ramp shots, paddle sweeps, late cuts etc. Hence, the role of Ambati Rayudu becomes very crucial. He should ideally come in at no. 4 and should look to bat till the end.

Bowling combination

Leg spinners and left-arm spinners have been very successful against the predominantly right-handed batting line up of RPS. This was possibly the reason why MI chose to drop their most economical bowler, Harbhajan Singh, in the previous match and played both Karn Sharma as well as Krunal Pandya. I believe, MI will continue with this strategy for the title clash. McClenaghan, who didn't play in the Qualifier 2 against KKR due to injury, will also likely sit out. In case, he replaces Johnson, ideally Rohit would like to use him up by the 15th over. The last four overs should be shared between Bumrah, Hardik Pandya and, unless Dhoni is on the crease, Malinga. These bowlers generally deploy a judicious mix of slower ones (at different lengths) and yorkers and it's that ability to keep the batsmen guessing which is most effective, esp. when batsmen are looking to score off every ball. 

Conclusion

Both the finalists of the first IPL (2008) were banned for two years in 2015, and one of the finalists of 2017 (RPS) may not play next year. RPS would want to finish on a high by winning the tournament and thereby, making a strong case for inclusion next year (IPL rules are likely to be overhauled for the next edition). And MI, which had a very poor initiation in IPL - having finished outside top 4 in the first two editions (no. 5 in 2008, no. 7 in 2009) - recently became the only team with 100+ T20 wins. Since 2009, MI has finished in the top four in 7 out of IPL 8 editions (including four times in the top two). They would want to cap off the first decade of IPL by winning their third title and sealing the bragging rights as the most successful IPL team. Individually, Rohit Sharma is going for his 4th IPL title (won 2 with MI and 1 with Deccan Chargers) while Dhoni will be looking to win his 3rd (won 2 with CSK). If this title clash can match the drama and excitement of the 2008 final, the fans would've got their money's worth. Let's play!