As the tennis bandwagon traveled from the deserts of California to the beaches of Florida, one question doing the rounds was whether Roger Federer can follow-up his victory at Indian Wells with a title win at Miami. This Sunshine Double i.e. winning Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back, that completes the spring hardcourt season in North America, is one of the toughest to achieve - only 7 players ever have achieved this. The list includes Federer, who along with Djokovic, is the only player to have achieved this more than once. So, can Federer round-off the early hardcourt season by winning the first three major tournaments of 2017?
Federer capped a wonderful week with a straight sets victory over compatriot and friend, Stan Wawrinka, to clinch his 5th Indian Wells title. He won the prestigious tournament without dropping a set throughout the course of the tournament. After dominating Nadal, Federer got slightly lucky when the in-form Kyrgios withdrew before their quarter-final encounter, citing food poisoning. With the Federer backhand firing the way it was against Nadal, the Jack Sock challenge in the semis was overcome in straight sets too. This set up an exciting encounter with Wawrinka, their 2nd this year.
The two Swiss giants went toe-to-toe in the first few games. Federer was off-the-blocks in a hurry, hitting 4 crisp winners in the very first game of the match. Wawrinka kept pace through some heavy hitting esp. on the forehand side. Both players were serving well and none of them faced any break-points in the first 9 games of the set. At 4-5, 30-15, a Wawrinka first serve (out wide) was called out and while Wawrinka didn't challenge that decision, the hawk-eye later suggested that the ball had just clipped the side-line. This proved crucial as Federer won the next three points, hitting huge forehands and mixing his pace & spin on backhands, to take the first set 6-4. Overall, Federer lost just four points on his serve throughout the set, hit nine winners and converted the only break point opportunity he got.
Wawrinka came out firing in the 2nd set, hitting three blistering forehand winners to break Federer in the opening game. This was the first (and only) time Federer's serve was broken during the tournament. On his serve in the next game, Wawrinka was down a break point after Federer hit a forehand down-the-line return winner. At break point, Wawrinka's approach shot was called out. This time, the US Open champion challenged that decision and the hawk-eye overturned the umpire's decision. Federer earned another break point opportunity in that game but Wawrinka held firm and consolidated his break to go up 2-0. It may have seemed that Wawrinka had turned a corner and had done enough to win the 2nd set, thereby taking the match into the decider. Federer however, was determined to make a comeback and ready to change tactics to mount one. He went on to win his next service game very comfortably by repeatedly coming into the net. And in the next game, when Wawrinka presented him a couple of break points through a series of unforced errors, he chipped a backhand directly at the feet of the advancing Wawrinka to elicit a weak half-volley and then hit a searing forehand down-the-line pass to break back and level the 2nd set. That basically set the template for the rest of the match. Federer repeatedly came to the net in his service games, and constantly moved Wawrinka around the court on his service games, to elicit the errors. With Wawrinka serving at 5-6, 30-30, Federer sensed an opportunity and pounced on his opponent's serves, taking them really early and finally breaking Wawrinka's resolve to win the set & match, 6-4, 7-5.
Overall, Federer hit 22 winners and made 16 unforced errors as compared to 16 winners and 21 unforced errors from the racquet of Wawrinka. He won his 5th Indian Wells title without dropping a set. This was also his 25th ATP Masters 1000 title (becoming the oldest player to win an ATP Masters 1000) and 90th tournament overall. This tournament win also propelled Federer to World No. 6 in ATP rankings.
Indian Wells finals
The two Swiss giants went toe-to-toe in the first few games. Federer was off-the-blocks in a hurry, hitting 4 crisp winners in the very first game of the match. Wawrinka kept pace through some heavy hitting esp. on the forehand side. Both players were serving well and none of them faced any break-points in the first 9 games of the set. At 4-5, 30-15, a Wawrinka first serve (out wide) was called out and while Wawrinka didn't challenge that decision, the hawk-eye later suggested that the ball had just clipped the side-line. This proved crucial as Federer won the next three points, hitting huge forehands and mixing his pace & spin on backhands, to take the first set 6-4. Overall, Federer lost just four points on his serve throughout the set, hit nine winners and converted the only break point opportunity he got.
Wawrinka came out firing in the 2nd set, hitting three blistering forehand winners to break Federer in the opening game. This was the first (and only) time Federer's serve was broken during the tournament. On his serve in the next game, Wawrinka was down a break point after Federer hit a forehand down-the-line return winner. At break point, Wawrinka's approach shot was called out. This time, the US Open champion challenged that decision and the hawk-eye overturned the umpire's decision. Federer earned another break point opportunity in that game but Wawrinka held firm and consolidated his break to go up 2-0. It may have seemed that Wawrinka had turned a corner and had done enough to win the 2nd set, thereby taking the match into the decider. Federer however, was determined to make a comeback and ready to change tactics to mount one. He went on to win his next service game very comfortably by repeatedly coming into the net. And in the next game, when Wawrinka presented him a couple of break points through a series of unforced errors, he chipped a backhand directly at the feet of the advancing Wawrinka to elicit a weak half-volley and then hit a searing forehand down-the-line pass to break back and level the 2nd set. That basically set the template for the rest of the match. Federer repeatedly came to the net in his service games, and constantly moved Wawrinka around the court on his service games, to elicit the errors. With Wawrinka serving at 5-6, 30-30, Federer sensed an opportunity and pounced on his opponent's serves, taking them really early and finally breaking Wawrinka's resolve to win the set & match, 6-4, 7-5.
Overall, Federer hit 22 winners and made 16 unforced errors as compared to 16 winners and 21 unforced errors from the racquet of Wawrinka. He won his 5th Indian Wells title without dropping a set. This was also his 25th ATP Masters 1000 title (becoming the oldest player to win an ATP Masters 1000) and 90th tournament overall. This tournament win also propelled Federer to World No. 6 in ATP rankings.
Miami Open - Tournament wide open
Both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic withdrew from this year's Miami Open, citing similar elbow injuries. Their withdrawals are significant as they've established a dupoly on this tournament, winning 8 of the last 10 titles. So much so, that Nadal has failed to win this tournament even once (despite reaching 4 finals) and Federer, a two-time winner (the last title came in 2006), last reached a semi-final here in 2011 (he hasn't played in 3 of the last 6 years).
The absence of the top two players in the world, has therefore, considerably opened up the field, as well as given the top seeds like Wawrinka, Nishikori, Federer and Nadal, an easier path to the semis. Nadal and Federer are pitted in opposite halves of the draw and hence, can't meet before the finals. Wawrinka and Federer are slotted in the same half and can potentially meet in the semi-finals. It won't be an easy ride though as Federer could meet the explosive Del Potro in the 3rd round (Head to Head: 15-5), the Acapulco champion Sam Querrey in the 4th round (H2H: 3-0), and the talented Dominic Thiem (H2H: 1-2) or Tomas Berdych (H2H: 17-6) in the quarters. Wawrinka has a slightly easier path to the quarters, given recent form of his likely opponents, but then the in-form Nick Kyrgios awaits in the quarters (H2H: 2-2). Also, he's unlikely to have it easy against likely opponent Alexander Zverev in the 4th round (H2H: 0-1).
The plethora of upsets in the bottom half of the draw yesterday, means that both Nadal and Nishikori are likely to have an easier path till their semi-final showdown. Nadal, who won his 2nd round encounter against Dudi Sela yesterday, is now drawn to play Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 3rd round (H2H: 13-1). Either Milos Raonic (H2H; 7-2) or Indian Wells semi-finalist, Jack Sock (H2H: 2-0), could be a quarter-final opponent for Nadal. Nishikori is slated to next meet Fernando Verdasco (H2H: 2-2), the only other remaining seed in that quarter of the draw. So a Nishikori-Nadal semi-final looks more certain than the Wawrinka-Federer one.
Why has Federer struggled at Miami?
Federer's first appearance in Miami was in 1999 (as a wild card). He's a two-time winner (2005, 2006) and has been a runner-up in 2002 (lost to Agassi). Apart from these title appearances, he's just reached two other semi-finals (2009, 2011) and his record at the tournament is, a less-than-stellar 44-13. The slow courts have often been blamed for this. However, ATP court-speed data released in October 2016, showed Miami courts to be quicker than Indian Wells.
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| Source: Reddit.com |
It could be argued therefore, that more than the court speed, it's the tournament's scheduling that may have hurt Federer (coming as it does, immediately after Indian Wells). He last played here in 2014 when he lost in the quarters to Nishikori. He skipped the 2013, 2015 and 2016 editions - this seems to have been slightly low priority for Federer in the last few years. Especially since this is the last hard court tournament before the clay court season starts. Federer has clearly indicated that the clay court swing in 2017 will be low priority for him, as he has set his sights on Wimbledon. Hence, it's reasonable to expect Federer to push himself very hard for a 3rd title in Miami.
Will we witness Fedal Episode 03 of Season '17?
While the path to the finals is not easy for either Federer or Nadal, millions of fans would be eagerly anticipating their third meeting in 2017. It's quite incredible, considering that having not met in 2016 and only once in 2015, they can potentially meet for the 3rd time in the first three months of 2017! They've met in Miami on three previous occasions with Nadal triumphing on two occasions. In fact, their first two career meetings were in Miami. In 2004, the 17 year old Nadal upset the world no. 1 Federer in straight sets (3rd round) and made the tennis world sit up and take notice. The following year, the duo met in the finals. Nadal won the first two sets and was up 4-1 in the 3rd. Federer then mounted a stunning comeback by breaking back and winning the tight 3rd set in a tie-break. This proved to be the turning point - Federer raced away with the final two sets as the rapidly-tiring Nadal couldn't keep up. That was Federer's first Miami title and Nadal's first runner-up performance. Two months later, Nadal won his first grand slam title at Roland-Garros and his victory over Federer in the semis, launched his winning head-to-head record against the Swiss giant.
In both their meetings in 2017, Federer has overcome Nadal by being very aggressive with his backhand and taking the balls very early (see my previous blog). By doing this twice within a space of six weeks, Federer has revealed his hand. If they meet again on 2nd April, Nadal will be hoping to find an ace up his sleeve!
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